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中国意外降息应对经济放缓

更新时间:2014-11-24 9:15:50 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

In Change of Strategy, China Cuts Interest Rate
中国意外降息应对经济放缓

HONG KONG — China finally admitted it has a growth problem — and that is a big step to getting the global economy back on track.

香港——中国终于承认了在经济增长方面存在问题——这是朝着全球经济重回正轨迈出的一大步。

For months, Beijing avoided broad stimulus measures, signaling that it was comfortable with the country’s slowing growth. But China’s pockets of weakness, coupled with the continuing woes in Japan and Europe, prompted anxiety in the financial markets.

多个月来,北京一直没有采取宏观的刺激措施,释放出它可以接受增长放缓的信号。然而,中国频频显露的疲软迹象,加上日本和欧洲的长期困境,已经引发了金融市场的焦虑。

Now China is changing its stimulus stance, announcing a surprise interest rate cut on Friday. The action will lift the country’s flagging housing market and large state-owned companies, as well as bolster other nations that have come to rely on those core parts of China’s economy.

如今,中国开始转变在刺激措施上的立场,周五意外地宣布降息。此举将提振中国萎靡不振的房地产市场和大型国有企业,并且有利于依赖中国经济这些核心领域的国家。

In cutting rates, China joins the parade of global policy makers who are stepping up their stimulus efforts to support growth. They are filling a void left by the United States Federal Reserve, which just ended a six-year bond-buying campaign that has kept borrowing costs low and has encouraged spending worldwide.

中国的降息举措与世界范围内的决策机构强化刺激行动以支持增长的做法保持了一致。它们正在填补美联储(United States Federal Reserve)留下的空白:后者刚刚结束了为期六年的债券购买计划。该计划让借贷成本保持在了较低水平,在全球范围内鼓励了消费。

As Europe’s economy stagnates and inflation remains dangerously low, the region’s central bank is considering a similar plan to purchase government bonds on a large scale, a policy known as quantitative easing. The European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, said on Friday that he and his colleagues would “do what we must” to address the economic issues, a sentiment that helped spark a 3 percent jump in the region’s stocks.

由于欧洲经济停滞不前,通胀仍然保持在危险的低水平,欧元区央行正在考虑一项类似的大规模购买政府债券的计划,也就是俗称的“量化宽松”政策。欧洲央行主席马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)周五表示,他和同事将“采取必要行动”应对经济问题。此番表态后,欧洲股市应声上扬了3%。

Japan’s central bank abruptly decided to ramp up its bond-buying campaign last month as the government’s revival plan faltered. The plan has taken on more urgency this week, as Japan’s economy plunged into a recession in the third quarter.

由于政府的经济复苏计划遇挫,日本央行上个月突然决定扩大债券购买计划。本周,由于数据显示日本经济在第三季度陷入衰退,该计划的紧迫性进一步加强。

With the Fed stepping back in the United States, the collective action elsewhere “supports the growth outlook for next year,” said William Adams, senior international economist with the PNC financial services group. “Global liquidity remains abundant and will continue to be so in 2015.”

由于美联储正在缩减美国的刺激规模,其他国家的协调行动“支持了明年的增长前景”,PNC金融服务集团的高级国际经济分析师威廉·亚当(William Adams)说。“全球流动性仍然充足,2015年仍将如此。”

The rate cuts by China helped soothe the global markets, which had become increasingly volatile with the drumbeat of bad economic data coming out of China and other parts of the world. American stocks rose modestly on Friday.

由于中国和世界其他地区不断爆出糟糕的经济数据,全球市场变得愈发动荡,而中国的降息之举有利于加以安抚。美国股市周五出现了小幅上涨。

“The Chinese economy has been an engine of growth for the global economy for quite some time, so any measures to head off a softening of growth in China is a plus,” said Paul Edelstein, director of financial economics at IHS Global Insight, a research firm. China’s move “gives confidence to investors.”

“相当长的一段时间以来,中国经济一直是全球经济的一个增长引擎,因此,任何阻止中国增长放缓的措施都是有好处的,”研究公司环球通视(IHS Global Insight)的金融经济学主管保罗·安德斯坦(Paul Edelstein)说。中国的行动“给了投资者信心”。

Even as China’s economy showed signs of weakness, policy makers refrained from broad measures like rate cuts to support growth. Instead, they made more targeted efforts, including making new credit lines available to certain banks and financial institutions. They also focused on specific goals like supporting the agriculture industry and constructing subsidized housing.

尽管中国经济显示出疲弱迹象,决策者此前却一直拒绝动用降息等宏观措施来支持增长,而是采取了更有针对性的动作,比如为某些银行和金融机构提供新的信用额度。他们还把关注点放到了一些具体的目标上,比如支持农业产业,以及建设补贴性住房。

But those unconventional measures appear to have had limited effect. Borrowing costs remain high, and growth in new lending remains lackluster.

不过,这些非常规措施似乎效果不大。借贷成本依然居高不下,新增贷款增长依然缓慢。

Other signs of strain have also mounted. Home prices continue to slide, declining in October from a year earlier in 67 of the 70 biggest cities, data released this week showed. Foreign investment, a boon to the economy for years, is contracting. And China’s huge manufacturing sector, a major employer and a driver of exports, is struggling with rampant overcapacity in many industries, leading to falling prices.

其他领域的承压迹象也在增多。房地产价格持续下滑。本周公布的数据显示,10月份,在70座规模最大的城市中,有67座的房价同比下降。外商投资多年来一直是经济的助推器,目前却在萎缩。作为主要的就业岗位来源和出口引擎,中国庞大的制造业正艰难地应对许多行业的产能过剩所引发的价格下跌。

So far this year, China has come up short in its growth goals. Gross domestic product in the third quarter increased 7.3 percent. While such growth would be the envy of many countries, it looked weak by Chinese standards. It was slowest pace since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. Many economists now expect the country to fall short of the government’s official growth target of 7.5 percent for the year.

今年截至目前,中国一直与自己提出的增长目标存在一定差距。第三季度国内生产总值增加了7.3%。尽管这样的增速是许多国家所羡慕的,但以中国的标准来看,却显得颇为疲软。这也是自2009年金融危机最严重的时候以来最慢的增长速度。许多经济学家现在认为,中国政府为今年设定的7.5%的官方增长目标会落空。

The rate cut, the first since the summer of 2012, reflects a discomfort among the country’s leaders with the speed of China’s economic deceleration.

本轮降息是2012年夏天以来的第一次,反映出中国领导人对经济放缓的速度感到不安。

The central bank, the People’s Bank of China, cut its benchmark one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 2.75 percent, and reduced the one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage points, to 5.6 percent. Policy makers also said they would give China’s banks more leeway in determining interest on deposits, allowing them to pay as much as 120 percent of the benchmark rate, up from 110 percent previously.

央行中国人民银行将一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至2.75%,并将一年期贷款基准利率下调0.4个百分点至5.6%。该决策机构还表示,会在决定存款利率方面赋予中国的银行更多空间,将它们的存款利率浮动区间上限由基准利率的1.1倍调整为1.2倍。

Most immediately, the rate cuts will make financing easier for the country’s large state-owned companies, which tend to enjoy easier access to loans from the government-controlled banking sector. That will help ease China’s debt pressure, as companies find it cheaper to pay off or refinance loans that are coming due.

最直接的影响是,此次降息会让中国大型国有企业的融资变得更为轻松——它们本就更易于从政府控制的银行部门获得贷款。此举还将有助于缓解中国的债务压力,因为企业会发现,还清债务或是为即将到期的贷款再融资的成本降低了。

“The impact on G.D.P. growth will be small,” Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, wrote Friday in a research note. “The main effect will be to improve the financial position of large firms.”

“对GDP增长的影响会比较小,”凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济师马克·威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在周五的研究报告中写道。“主要影响会是改善大企业的财务状况。”

But the move is not without risks. While cheap credit helped fuel an aggressive expansion after the global financial crisis, it also led to ballooning levels of corporate and local government debt. The rate cuts — and any new lending they spur — may raise further alarms that the debt levels are unsustainable. A wave of bad loans could set the stage for a severe economic downturn or another financial shock.

然而,此举并非没有风险。低息贷款尽管帮助刺激了全球金融危机后的经济大举扩张,却也导致企业和地方政府的债务水平急速膨胀。本轮降息及其推动的任何新增信贷,可能会进一步拉响债务水平不可持续的的警报。一波坏账可能会酝酿出严重的经济下行,或是另一场金融震荡。

Despite the surprise move, Chinese policy makers tempered expectations for more aggressive stimulus. The central bank on Friday emphasized that monetary policy would not change direction in a fundamental way.

尽管出人意料地推出了这一动作,但中国的决策机构让外界不要期待会出现力度更大的刺激。人民银行周五强调,货币政策的方向不会发生根本性的改变。

“Over all, the country retains a mid to high rate of macroeconomic growth, price inflation has slowed, the economic structure is continuously being optimized and upgraded and growth is shifting from being investment-driven to being driven by innovation,” the central bank said in a statement. “Thus, there is no need to undertake strong stimulus measures, and the prudent monetary policy direction will not change.”

“总体看,我国宏观经济仍保持中高速增长,物价涨幅回落,经济结构不断优化升级,经济增长正从要素、投资趋动转向创新驱动,”中国央行在声明中称。“因此不需要对经济采取强刺激措施,稳健货币政策取向不会改变。”

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