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中国经济近期走势

更新时间:2014-10-22 18:06:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Mixed Economic Signals From China
中国经济近期走势

HONG KONG — Markets around the world have been jolted by fears that slowing growth and deflationary pressures in Europe, Japan and other major economies could derail the United States. But the health of China, for decades an engine of growth, has emerged as one of the most significant wild cards in the global economy.

香港——由于担心欧洲、日本及其他主要经济体的增长放缓和通缩压力可能危及美国,全球市场正陷入恐慌。而作为几十年来的增长引擎,中国的经济状况已成为全球经济的一个最大变数。

It is hard to be certain just exactly how the Chinese economy is faring, given mixed signals in the data.

很难确定中国经济到底表现如何,原因是数据中呈现的复杂信息。

Chinese inflation is at its weakest levels in nearly five years. Commodity prices are plunging. New home sales are declining. Foreign investment is contracting.

中国的通胀处于近五年来的最低水平。大宗商品价格大幅下跌。新房销售不断下滑。外国投资正不断缩水。

The overall economy, though, continues to chug along at a steady, albeit more modest, pace. China’s gross domestic product increased by 7.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 7.5 percent in the previous quarter. While that was the lowest quarterly growth since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, the rate remains the envy of major economies. The economy also continues adding jobs at a good clip, and the currency is one of very few that are still rising against the dollar.

不过,整个经济仍然平稳增长,虽然速度更加缓慢。中国的GDP三季度增长了7.3%,相比之下,前一季度的增幅为7.5%。尽管这是2009年金融危机最严重时期以来的最低季度增幅,这个速度仍然让主要经济体艳羡不已。中国的新增就业岗位仍在大幅增加,而人民币则是兑美元汇率仍在上升的少数币种之一。

“The question or problem we are all facing at the moment is, ‘What is right picture for the economy as a whole?’ ” said Louis Kuijs, the chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong. “It’s complicated by negative forces that show up very strongly in industry but not in the service sector.”

“我们所有人目前面临的疑问或问题是,‘中国整体经济状况的真实图景是什么?’”苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)驻香港的首席经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说。“令整体状况更加复杂的消极力量来自于实业,而不是服务业。”

Making sense of China’s economic health is challenging because the slowdown is partly by design.

看懂中国经济状况极具挑战性,因为经济放缓部分源自刻意安排。

The Communist leadership has pledged to reduce China’s dependence on credit-fueled growth and investment, to instead emphasize domestic consumption. It is a risky proposal, and leaders have signaled a willingness to live with slower growth, provided employment holds up and systemic risks are contained.

中共领导层已经承诺减少中国对信贷推动的增长以及投资的依赖,要转而重视国内消费。这是一个存在风险的计划,但领导人已经表示,只要就业市场坚挺、系统风险可控,愿意接受增长放缓的事实。

One figure that Chinese leaders study closely is the number of new jobs. Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, boasted in a speech at a World Economic Forum meeting last month that nearly 10 million urban jobs had been created in the first eight months of the year, up slightly from a year ago. As a result, he said, he would not mind if the growth of the gross domestic product fell short of this year’s official target of 7.5 percent.

中国领导人密切关注的一个数据是新增就业岗位。中国总理李克强上个月在世界经济论坛会议上的演讲中骄傲地说,今年前8个月,中国城镇新增就业近1000万人,比上一年有小幅增长。他说,因此,GDP增长低于今年7.5%的官方目标也是可以接受的。

“An important goal of maintaining stable growth is to ensure employment, and the floor of the proper range is to ensure relatively adequate employment,” he said at the meeting in Tianjin.

“稳增长是为了保就业,调控的下限是比较充分的就业,”他在天津的这次会议上说。

But even in the jobs figures, broad disparities exist across China. Employment has grown solidly in the services sector nearly every month in the last five years, according to the purchasing managers index compiled by HSBC and Markit. By contrast, manufacturing employment, which generally expanded from 2009 through 2011, has mostly contracted since.

但即使是在就业方面,中国各地的数据也存在着较大差异。汇丰银行(HSBC)和Markit编制的采购经理人指数显示,过去五年,服务领域的就业人数几乎每月都会出现稳定增长。相比之下,制造业的就业人数虽然从2009年到2011年总地来说是在扩大,此后的多数时间都在下降。

At an employment fair for the medical appliance industry at a government-run career center near the Lama Temple in Beijing last week, more than a hundred job seekers bantered with recruiters and weighed their options. A 42-year-old man who gave only his surname, Mr. Lin, was applying for a job at Beijing Niubao Technology, a chemical equipment maker.

上周,北京的雍和宫附近一个政府运营的就业指导中心,举行了一场医疗器械行业的招聘会。100多位求职者与用人单位攀谈着,权衡着自己的选择。42岁的林先生正在申请北京纽堡科技有限公司的一个职位,这是一家化学设备生产商。

With 20 years of experience in a specialized industry, Mr. Lin expressed confidence about his prospects despite the overall outlook in the sector. “Manufacturing isn’t doing so great in the past few years, but I think chemical equipment is still doing relatively O.K.,” he said.

由于在专业领域拥有20年的经验,虽然行业的整体状况不佳,林先生仍然表示对自己的前途充满信心。“制造业过去几年的表现不是很好,但我认为化工设备相对来说还算可以,”他说。

That somewhat positive outlook is a sharp contrast to most traditional industries. “We didn’t have any new recruits this year,” Huang Xinqun, 48, a manager at a large ocean-shipping company, said last week. “Usually when the manufacturing business is not doing so well, it would be directly reflected on us,” he said.

这种比较积极的态度与多数传统行业的情况形成了强烈对比。“我们今年没有任何招聘,”48岁的大型远洋运输公司经理黄新群(音)上周说。“通常当制造业不景气的时候,会直接在我们这里反映出来,”他说。

“We’re like a signal post on how the economy is doing,” Mr. Huang said. “If companies don’t have that many orders and products to transport, then we don’t have as much work.”

“我们就像是经济状况的信号灯,”黄新群说。“如果企业没有那么多订单和需要运输的产品,我们就没有多少工作要做。”

Despite the signs of malaise in China’s manufacturing and industrial sectors, the government is wary of repeating the significant stimulus measures it undertook after the financial crisis. Leaders are worried that would add to China’s ballooning debt, which rose to 250 percent of gross domestic product at the end of June, from 150 percent five years ago, according to estimates by Standard Chartered Bank.

尽管中国制造业及工业领域出现低迷迹象,政府对再次实施金融危机后采取的重大刺激举措持谨慎态度。领导人担心,这会增加中国不断膨胀的债务。据渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)估计,截至6月底,中国债务规模达到GDP的250%,而五年前,这个比率为150%。

Instead, policy makers in recent months have used targeted, behind-the-scenes stimulus measures, including extending limited amounts of short-term credit to large and medium-size banks. The government also has directed more financing to favored projects, like supporting agricultural efforts and redeveloping shantytowns.

最近几个月,政策制定者采用了具有针对性的幕后刺激举措,包括给予大中型银行有限的短期信贷。政府还将更多资金投入其属意的项目,比如支持农业发展,及重建棚户区。

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