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意想不到的受益者 全球气候变暖让富国更富

更新时间:2019/6/13 21:59:03 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How global warming has made the rich richer
意想不到的受益者 全球气候变暖让富国更富

Temperatures may be rising globally, but not all of us feel the impact in the same way.

全球温度都在升高,但对各国的影响并不相同。

Over the past half century, climate change has increased inequality between countries, dragging down growth in the poorest nations whilst likely boosting prosperity in some of the richest, a new study says.

一项最新的研究显示,半个世纪以来,气候变化加剧了国家间的不平等,拖缓了最贫困国家的发展,似乎也令一些富裕国家愈发繁荣。

The gap between the world's poorest and richest countries is about 25% larger today than it would have been without global warming, according to Stanford University researchers in California.

美国加州斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的研究人员表示,贫富两极国家间的差距加大,有超过25%的因素是全球变暖。

African countries in tropical latitudes have been the hardest hit, with the GDP per capita of Mauritania and Niger more than 40% lower than they would have been without the rising temperatures.

地处热带的非洲国家遭受的打击最为严重,毛里塔尼亚(Mauritania)和尼日尔(Niger)的人均GDP因为气候变暖的缘故少增长了40%。

India - which the IMF says will become the world's fifth largest economy this year - had a GDP per capita 31% lower in 2010 because of global warming, says the study. The figure for Brazil - the world's ninth largest economy - is 25%.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测印度将在今年成长为全球第五大经济体,但该项研究表示,因为全球变暖,印度的人均GDP比2010年减少了31%。对于全球第九大经济体巴西来说,这一数字是25%。

On the other hand, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, global warming has likely contributed to the GDP per capita of several rich nations, including some of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

另一方面,发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》(National Academy of Sciences)的一篇文章写道,气候变暖对一些富裕国家的人均GDP似乎有正面贡献,其中几个还是世界上最主要的温室气体排放国。

Warming penalty

变暖的代价

Co-author Professor Marshall Burke, from the Department of Earth System Science at Stanford University, spent several years analysing the relationship between temperature and economic fluctuations in 165 countries between 1961 and 2010.

布尔克(Marshall Burke)是斯坦福大学地球科学系的教授,也是研究团队的成员。他花了数年时间,研究了165个国家在1961年到2010年之间温度与经济波动的关系。

The study used more than 20 climate models to determine how much each country has warmed due to climate change attributable to humans. Then it calculated 20,000 versions of what their annual growth rate would be without temperature increase.

他的研究采用20多个气候模型,分析了人类造成的气候变化对各个国家温度升高有多少影响,然后又通过2万种方法计算了在气温不升高的情况下这些国家的年增长率会是多少。

Burke demonstrated that growth accelerated in cool countries in years which were warmer than average, while in hot nations it slowed down.

研究证明,在气温高于平均水平的年份,气温较低国家的发展速度会加快,而炎热国家的增速则会减慢。

"The historical data clearly show that crops are more productive, people are healthier and we are more productive at work when temperatures are neither too hot nor too cold," he said.

他说:“历史数据明确显示,气温不高不低的时候,农作物产量更高、人更健康、工作效率也更高。”

He argues that cold countries have reaped "warming benefits" from rising mercury, while hot countries have been given a "warming penalty" by being pushed further away from their optimum temperature.

他认为,温度升高让寒冷国家获得了“升温福利”,而炎热国家的气温则跟理想温度相差更远了,受到了“升温惩罚”。

"There are a number of pathways by which the building blocks of aggregate economic activity are influenced by temperature," says lead researcher Noah Diffenbaugh.

研究的带头人迪芬巴夫(Noah Diffenbaugh)说:“温度对经济活动的影响体现在各个方面。”

"For example, agriculture. Cold countries have a very limited growing season because of the winter. On the other hand we have substantial evidence that crop yields declined sharply at high temperatures," Diffenbaugh says.

“譬如农业。冬天令寒冷国家作物的生长期十分有限,但也有充分的证据表明,高温时作物收成也会大幅下降。”

"Likewise, there is evidence that labour productivity declines at high temperatures, that cognitive performance declines at high temperatures, interpersonal conflict increases at high temperatures."

“同样,温度高时人的生产力降低,认知能力变差,人与人的冲突增加。”

For richer and poorer?

贫富差距更大?

The researchers say while there is some uncertainty regarding the benefits reaped by colder, richer countries, the impact on warmer countries over history has been unequivocal.

研究人员表示,气候变化给较寒冷的富裕国家带来了哪些好处还不好说;但历史数据已经表明,较热的国家会受到哪些影响。

In fact, if they were to consider global warming since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, they say the observed effects would be larger.

如果将气候变化的起点设为工业革命伊始,就会发现其影响更加深远。

"The findings of this study are consistent with what has been known for years, that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, and takes existing vulnerabilities  and makes them worse," says Happy Khambule, senior political advisor at Greenpeace Africa.

绿色和平组织非洲分部的高级政治顾问喀布勒(Happy Khambule)说:“我们一直都知道,气候变化会令威胁加倍,本已严峻的问题会首当其冲,本就危险的情况因此进一步恶化,研究结论也与此一致。”

"This means that the poorest and most vulnerable are on the frontlines of climate change, and developing countries have to deal with the increasingly extreme climate impacts at the expense of their own development."

“也就是说,最贫困、最脆弱的国家在气候变化面前最先遭殃。解决日益严峻的气候影响,发展中国家将以自身发展为代价。”

Mozambique's lack of resilience was apparent after cyclone Kenneth, which caused more than 40 deaths since making landfall on 25 April, Khambule adds.

莫桑比克遭受飓风“肯尼思”(Kenneth)袭击后很明显缺乏应对措施,4月25日飓风造成泥石流以来已经死亡40多人,喀布勒补充道。

In March, more than 900 people died across Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe as a consequence of Cyclone Idai.

今年3月,飓风“伊代”(Idai)在莫桑比克、马拉维和津巴布韦造成900多人死亡。

But even South Africa, which benefits from a more sophisticated infrastructure, has struggled in the face of extreme weather events like the Day Zero water crisis in 2018 and the recent floods in Kwa-Zulu Natal, Khambule says.

喀布勒还说,即使是南非这样基础设施完备的国家,也会因为极端天气而在2018年出现了名为“临界日”(Day Zero)的用水危机(各家没有自来水可用,需要到水站限量取水,译者注),最近在夸祖卢-纳塔尔省(Kwa-Zulu Natal)也发生了多起洪灾。

"African countries have contributed very little to creating climate change, and are nonetheless facing deep impacts that they are ill-equipped to deal with."

“气候变化没有多少是非洲国家造成的,但它们依然受到严重影响,而且根本无法应对。”

No sharing of the wealth

富裕国家幸免于难

According to the study, between 1961 and 2010 all of the 18 countries whose total historical emissions are less than 10 tons of CO2 per capita (nine tonnes) have suffered a negative impact from global warming - with a median reduction of 27% in their GDP per capita compared to the scenario without rising temperatures.

根据此项研究,在1961年到2010年间,二氧化碳人均历史排放总量低于10英吨(9公吨)的18个国家全都受到了全球变暖的负面影响,与气温不上升相比,人均GDP减少量的中位数为27%。

By contrast, 14 of the 19 countries whose cumulative emissions exceed 300 tons of CO2 per capita (272 tonnes) have benefitted from global warming, with a median contribution to GDP per capita of 13%.

而在19个二氧化碳人均排放总量超过300英吨(272公吨)的国家中,有14个从气候变暖中受益,人均GDP上涨的中位数为13%。

"Not only have poor countries not shared in the full benefits of energy consumption, but many have already been made poorer (in relative terms) by the energy consumption of wealthy countries," the study says.

研究显示:贫困国家不仅没能尽享能源消耗的全部福利,许多还因为富裕国家使用能源而变得更加贫困(相对而言)。

But the findings haven't been received without criticism.

但研究结果也遭到了不少批评。

Solomon Hsiang, Public Policy professor at UC Berkeley, who has collaborated with the two researchers in the past, says that although the impact of global warming on poorer, hotter countries is "most definitely correct", its negative impacts are also felt in richer countries.

美国加州大学伯克利分校公共政策的向教授(Solomon Hsiang)之前曾与布尔克和迪芬巴夫合作过,他认为,虽然全球变暖对较为贫困、炎热国家的负面影响“千真万确”,但富裕国家也没能幸免于难。

"We see delayed harms show up in richer countries, using the methods of that analysis. So if you look beyond the first year of impacts, you see damages show up in the colder, richer countries as well as the hotter, poor countries," Hsian says.

他还说:“用他们的方法来分析,富裕国家受到的影响要迟些才会显现。影响开始之几年后,通过观察就能发现,较为寒冷、富裕的国家跟较为炎热、贫穷的国家一样会遭受损失。”

It is also less clear how growth has been affected in countries in the middle latitudes, including the US, China and Japan - the world's three largest economies.

中纬度国家受到的影响有多大尚不清楚,这当中包括了美国、中国和日本这三个世界最大的经济体。

"In the long term, climate change benefits no-one," Khambule says. "If it continues unabated, we will face runaway climate change. It is critical that the world's largest emitters act to reduce their emissions urgently."

喀布勒说:“长远来看,气候变化对谁都没有好处。如果变化势头不减,则终将失控。世界主要温室气体排放国必须赶快行动起来,减少排放。”

"Policy makers need to take climate change much more seriously than they currently do, and ensure that there is an urgent transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy."

“政策的制定者们得更加严肃地看待气候变化问题,马上停止使用化石能源,转用可再生的能源。”

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