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科技与时尚:预测20年后的潮流风尚

更新时间:2019/5/15 21:01:07 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

What will fashion be like 20 years from now?
科技与时尚:预测20年后的潮流风尚

Watch any recent science-fiction movie and you’ll be struck by divergent visions of the future, as seen through the eyes of Hollywood costume departments. Follow the sartorial route of Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther, for example, and we can expect to sheath our fortunately pneumatic bodies in reinforced scuba suits. Turn instead to the post-apocalyptic worlds of Blade Runner 2049 and the TV series The Expanse, and the offer is bastardised street wear, scavenged from the wardrobes of the past.

看看近期上映的科幻电影,从服装上我们会惊讶地发现,好莱坞对于未来的诠释竟会如此不同。看了库格勒(Ryan Coogler)导演的电影《黑豹》(Black Panther),我们发现可以把肌肉强健的身体(如果有的话)塞进加强版的潜水服里;然而在电影《银翼杀手2049》(Blade Runner 2049)和电视剧《苍穹浩瀚》(The Expanse)中,故事发生在世界末日之后,衣服都是街头打扮,像是从旧衣橱里翻出来的。

Anything, apparently, is better than what we have now. From questions over modern slavery to the planet-levelling effects of over-consumption, fashion is under fire – and brands are having to adapt. According to a recent report shared at the Camera Nazionale della Moda Italiana’s third international roundtable on sustainability in Milan, buyers at stores like Barneys and Saks in the US and Printemps in France expect to nearly double their total spending on sustainable products in the next five years, from 23% to 40%.

但显然都比现在的强。从新时代的奴役问题到过度消费对全球的影响等等,当今的时尚饱受诟病,各家公司必须做出改变。最近,意大利国家时尚商会在米兰举行了第三届可持续发展的国际圆桌会议,会上的一份报告显示,未来五年人们在高档商店(如美国的巴尼斯百货、萨克斯第五大道精品百货和法国的巴黎春天百货)购买可持续性产品的比例将从23%上涨至40%,几乎翻了一番。

What looks set to remain constant, however, is the urge to consume, hard-wired into human nature. As Dr Mark Summer from Leeds University School of Design wrote, in Fixing Fashion, this year's report by the Environmental Audit Committee: “fashion satisfies consumers’ psychogenic needs… and any solution has to recognise – and maintain – these benefits.

然而消费的冲动并没变,它深深根植于人类的本性之中。利兹大学设计学院的萨默博士(Mark Summer)在今年环境审计委员会的报告《修正时尚》(Fixing Fashion)中写道:“时尚满足了消费者的心理需求……所有解决方案都必须承认、并且保持这种需求。”

Accordingly, innovators are exploring future solutions that offer all the hit of the new buy without stripping the earth – and the answers, increasingly, appear to lie in the digital world. “We’re finally seeing the digital industry revolutionise age-old practice and evolving over the next 20 years,” says Rachel Stott of The Future Laboratory. “Immaterial and digital fashion offers opportunities for brands to exert creativity, and connect with consumers through a different medium.”

对此,革新者已经开始为将来寻找解决方案,希望既能推出热卖新品,又不破坏地球环境。而我们越发认识到,虚拟数字世界才是解决之道。未来实验室(The Future Laboratory)的斯托特(Rachel Stott)说:“数字产业已经开始颠覆延续多年的传统,并将在未来20年不断发展。品牌可以依托不受物料限制的数字时尚来大展创意,通过另一种媒介与消费者建立联系。”

And in one manifestation, the clothes won’t exist at all. When Norwegian retailer Carlings launched a digital collection last year, the fashion – futuristic streetwear, bought online and e-fitted to users’ photos – was created to counter the ‘wear once, take a selfie, chuck it away’ philosophy of today’s frantic online influencer. “We’ve opened up a world of taking chances with styling, without leaving a negative footprint on the world,” Morten Grubak of Virtue Nordic, told iD’s Jake Hall, at the time.

还有一种表现形式根本就没有衣服。去年,挪威的服装零售品牌卡灵思(Carlings)发布了虚拟服装系列,这是一组充满未来感的街头服饰,顾客需要在网上购买,之后在线将衣服穿到自己的照片上——这其实是在反对如今各种网红们“衣服穿上照张相就扔”的情况。媒体创意公司北欧之美(Virtue Nordic)的格鲁巴克(Morten Grubak)在当时接受iD网站的霍尔(Jake Hall)采访时曾说:“我们开辟了全新的造型体验,不会对地球造成任何伤害。”

For the virtual generation, the digital collection is just a logical step forward. Fervent players of games like Fortnite, The Sims and Sansar already spend billions on things that aren’t actually there – including clothes. “Increasingly, we will see digital collections and garments free from physical and creative restrictions become part of the fashion landscape,” says Stott.

在这个虚拟时代,出现虚拟服装也很合理。《堡垒之夜》(Fortnite)、《模拟人生》(The Sims)和《桑萨》(Sansar)这些游戏的狂热玩家早就在现实中不存在的东西上花了几十亿——包括虚拟服饰。斯托特说:“虚拟服饰将不断突破实物和想象的限制,成为时尚的一部分。”

“There is a clear trend to blending the physical world with online content,” agrees Matthew Drinkwater, of the London College of Fashion’s Fashion Innovation Agency. His vision posits a future in which, using augmented-reality glasses that overlayg digital imagery onto the real world, we ‘share’ the clothes we want to be seen wearing into the AR glasses of others who are participating.

伦敦时尚学院时装创新中心的德林克沃特(Matthew Drinkwater)对此表示赞同,他说:“将现实世界和网上元素相结合显然是大势所趋。”他认为,未来人们可以戴上增强现实(AR)眼镜,将数字图像叠加到现实之上,让一同使用AR眼镜的人看到我们想象中的自己“穿”了什么衣服。

Pie-in-the-sky? Not quite. Working with Lucasfilm's immersive entertainment division ILMxLAB, Drinkwater introduced the project at designer Steven Tai’s London Fashion Week 2018 presentation.

觉得不切实际?倒也未必。德林克沃特正与卢卡斯影业(Lucasfilm)的沉浸式娱乐体验部门ILMxLAB合作,还在设计师戴思文(Steven Tai) 2018伦敦时装周的秀场上展示了这个创意。

"The project hints at a future where we will be able to download content to our clothing, viewable through AR glasses, and present ourselves differently to everyone around us,” says Drinkwater. “Our identities are constantly evolving and becoming more fluid by straddling both the digital and physical realms,” adds Stott. “Digital fashion allows people to fully experiment with how they would like to be perceived – and push limitless creative boundaries. A hairstyle made from water, a dress that alters its shape according to sound: these are all possible.”

德林克沃特表示:“这个创意也说明,将来我们可以给衣服下载各种元素,大家戴上AR眼镜会发现我们的打扮不一样了。虚拟和现实世界之间的交融会让我们的特征不断变化,更具流动性。虚拟时尚能让人们充分尝试想要示人的造型,不断突破无限的创意。水做的发型、根据声音改变形状的服装等等,都有可能实现。”

Brave new world

美丽新世界

But, if the thought of operating so completely online makes you jumpy, there are more concrete applications for the tech. According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, $500 billion is lost every year in clothing under-use and waste costs; 87% of all fashion made goes to landfill. So what would happen if we only made clothes people really wanted? This is the concept behind NY-based digital agency Neuro Studio’s latest work, Solventus 2019, a collection for which human models were 3D-scanned to obtain precise measurements before the garments were designed directly onto digital avatars.

如果完全采用网上操作的想法令你紧张不安,这种技术也有更加具体的应用。艾伦·麦克阿瑟基金会表示,没穿几次就扔的衣服和相关的浪费每年所造成的经济损失高达5000亿美元,87%的时尚产品最后都沦为了填埋的垃圾。那么如果只生产人们真正需要的服装会如何呢?纽约的数字设计公司神经工作室(Neuro Studio)最新发布的服装系列Solventus 2019就是以此为理念。制作这个系列时他们对真人模特进行了3D扫描,得到精准的尺寸后再在虚拟模特身上直接设计服装。

The intention, eventually, is to only make the clothes – capes, body harnesses and leggings built with body-supporting weaves and cold weather fabrics; very post-apocalyptic – when someone orders them.

这一设计的初衷在于,那些后世界末日风格的衣服——采用承托身体的织法和保暖布料制做的披肩、身体束带和紧身裤等等,有人下单了才去做。

And there is, of course, more: Neuro Studio’s collection encompasses 3D-printing, the tech that allows designers to tailor-make pieces digitally for individual customers. Sportswear companies such as Nike, which already allows shoppers to design their own trainers, posit a future where consumers will be able to 3D print their own shoes at home. Shoppers could become designers – when streetwear label Hype couldn’t decide which design to go for, they let their customers choose via an Instagram post.

当然,这么做还另有原因:神经工作室的这个系列结合了3D打印技术,设计师可以借此为顾客量身打造虚拟的服饰。耐克等运动服装品牌早前已经开始请顾客自行设计球鞋,这也预示着将来消费者能够足不出户3D打印出自己的球鞋。消费者也可以是设计师——英国街头潮牌Hype拿不准要用哪款设计,于是在Instagram上发帖让顾客来选择。

We are, says Stott, moving ever closer to consumer-designed clothing. “Fashion – the industry it once was – no longer holds the cultural imagination or kudos it once did,” she says. “The hegemony of fashion influencers has shifted in recent years, from designers, creative directors and magazine editors to the people. The consumer wants creative input and hyper-personalised products, and technology is empowering them to do so.”

斯托特表示,如今的服装产业不断趋于让消费者进行设计。她说:“时尚,这个曾经的产业,已然失去了往日所承载的文化想象和荣光。近年来,时尚话语权的掌控者已经发生了改变,从设计师、创意总监和杂志编辑转移到了普通人身上。消费者想要参与创意,拥有个性化的产品,而技术的发展也令这些诉求得以实现。”

At the same time, the technology that goes into clothes themselves is galloping ahead. Smart fabric companies are developing materials that can gather data such as, in the case of the Nike Adapt BB basketball shoe, whether a wearer needs to alter their strike in order to avoid injury. “In the future, with the roll out of 5G, clothes will function as a new interface, impacting on the way we communicate with the connected world and with each other,” says Mano ten Napel, founder of digital magazine FashNerd.

与此同时,服装本身的科技含量也在高速增长。许多智能面料公司都在研发能够收集数据的材料,比如耐克Adapt BB系列的篮球鞋能够计算出穿鞋的人是否应该改变投球以避免受伤。电子杂志FashNerd的创始人纳珀尔(Mano ten Napel)说:“未来5G推出以后,服装会成为新的交流工具,影响我们与这个互联的世界,以及彼此之间的沟通方式。”

Whether or not these technologies will available to all, as in the case of fast fashion , is another matter. “I look at social behaviours,” reflects fashion forecaster Geraldine Wharry. “And I think supply scarcity – in terms of water and fabric shortages and costs going up, for example – is going to be a big one. When those things happen, people shift their budgets for what they really need to survive.” And fast fashion? “It’s an outdated model,” says Wharry. “I just cannot see how it can continue. Brands without some kind of sustainability strategy are in trouble.”

但是,这种科技是否会像快时尚一样大规模普及还另当别论。瓦尔里(Geraldine Wharry)的工作是预测流行趋势,他说:“从社会行为的角度而言,我认为供给不足会发酵成一个大问题——水资源短缺、面料不足、成本上涨等等。类似问题一旦爆发,人们就会改变消费开支,只按照生存需要选购商品。”快时尚会怎样?“这种模式已经过时,我不知道它要如何维系下去。没有可持续发展战略的品牌一定会深陷泥潭。”

So where will the ordinary person turn for their fashion fix? As future tech evolves, parallel movements are showing a return to the hand made and the tactile. “There’s a lot of interest in craft,” says Wharry. “It’s a different way of connecting with the clothes.” Secondhand markets are exploding; according to fashion resale site ThredUP, sites like itself are growing 24 times faster than the retail industry as a whole. Meanwhile, the rental economy is gaining traction. “In fashion, rental can provide newness without the environmental cost,” says Sara Arnold of Higher Studio.

那么,普通人对时尚的看法会如何变化?随着未来技术的发展,时尚也正在回归手工制作和衣服的触感。瓦尔里表示:“如今人们对手工制作颇感兴趣,这是人和服饰的另一种联系。”二手服装市场呈现爆炸式增长,二手时尚交易网站ThredUP表示,它们这类网站的增速是整个零售业的24倍。服装租赁业也一并收益。高远工作室(Higher Studio)的阿诺德(Sara Arnold)说:“服装租赁给了时尚新的选择,而且不会破坏环境。”

“Humans still need to be clothed so we will see a shift in the way in which we access clothing in the future,” says Stott. “Ownership is no longer the end goal. We outsource our music and film choices to digital subscription services, and we will see a similar movement with clothing powered by AI. People will subscribe to central fashion services, and borrow clothes on a short-term basis according to their needs and lifestyle changes, reducing the masses of clothing sitting unused in a closet.”

斯托特说:“人们不会不穿衣服,所以未来改变的将是获得服装的方式。得到一件衣服不再是最终目标。人们已经把音乐和电影的选择权交给了电子订阅服务,未来我们的衣服搭配也有可能是由人工智能来决定。人们可以订购核心时尚服务,根据个人需求和生活方式的转变来短租各种服装,大大减少衣柜里闲置衣物的数量。”

However we get our clothes, fashion will retain its identity as a form of escapism and expression, particularly as planetary conditions get more difficult. “If you look at the Great Depression, there was a lot of glitz and glamour,” says Wharry. “And if you look at the trends right now, there’s a lot of colour. Fashion is always a mirror of what is going on in society. There could be so much difference between the haves and the have-nots in the future that it could create very extravagant fashion.”

无论人们如何获得衣服,时尚永远是一种逃离现实的形式和一种表达方式,这在地球日益艰难的情况下尤其如是。瓦尔里说:“经济大萧条时期的时尚充斥着浮华与魅力,而当下的趋势则色彩斑斓。时尚就是社会的镜子。未来贫富差异也许是巨大的,会出现极尽奢华的时尚。”

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