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香港房地产市场震荡,高端豪宅重获关注

更新时间:2019/3/25 21:16:43 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

After a Dip, Hong Kong Real Estate Again Eyes the Stratosphere
香港房地产市场震荡,高端豪宅重获关注

HONG KONG — Something strange happened recently in the Hong Kong property market.

香港——香港房产市场近期发生了一件奇怪的事情。

On New Year’s Eve, a buyer put down a five percent deposit for the purchase of a three-story, $92.5 million luxury house perched high up on the hills of Hong Kong Island.

新年前夕,一位买主预付了5%的定金,欲购买在香港岛山顶一栋售价9250万美元的三层豪宅。

With a garden and a pool, the house offers sweeping views of the city below and the harbor beyond.

这栋房子带花园和游泳池,可纵览山下的城市,眺望远处的海港。

A month later, the buyer backed out of the purchase, losing the $4.6 million deposit.

一个月后,买主退出交易,损失了460万美元的定金。

It is unclear what caused the whopping default. The unidentified buyer may have had financing problems. Or the buyer might have decided it was a bad bet.

尚不清楚是什么导致了如此之大的违约事件。不明身份的买主可能是遇到了财务问题。或者买主也可能认定那是笔赔钱的买卖。

But a default of this scale is “very, very rare,” said Nicole Wong, the regional head of property research at CLSA, an investment and brokerage group.

但如此规模的违约“相当罕见”,投资与经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)亚太地区房产研究总监王豔(Nicole Wong)说。

It could also speak to a wider sense of unease about the city’s property market. While forfeitures of deposits are still relatively uncommon, a spate in recent months by potential home buyers appears to signal waning confidence in the market.

它也反映出对香港房产市场普遍存在的不安状态。虽说没收定金的情况仍相对罕见,但近几月来,潜在房屋买家突然接连违约,似乎表明市场信心在减退。

After years of steep price increases, affirming Hong Kong’s position as the city with the world’s most unaffordable property — a distinction it has held for nine straight years — the housing market entered a monthslong period of decline starting last summer.

多年来价格的急速上升,使香港成为全世界房价最高昂的城市——这一殊荣香港已连续保持了9年。去年夏季开始,房市进入了数月之久的跌势。

“In general, from last midyear to now, the atmosphere in the housing property market has not been good,” said Keng Shing Koh, founder and chief executive of Landscope Christie’s, a real estate agency in Hong Kong.

“总的来讲,从去年年中到现在,房产市场的氛围一直不佳,”香港房产机构领域佳士得(Landscope Christie’s)创始人兼首席执行官许赓胜(Keng Shing Koh)说。

Prices in the residential mass market have slumped, mortgage applications have plummeted and the number of transactions has plunged, reaching the lowest since 2005 in September. From July to December 2018, home prices fell almost 10 percent, according to data from the city’s Rating and Valuation Department. And in the steepest month-on-month decline since the global financial crisis of 2008, the property price index fell 3.5 percent last November.

普通住宅市场的价格已下跌,抵押贷款申请骤然下跌,交易数量骤降,9月份跌至自2005年以来的最低点。根据香港差饷物业估价署(Rating and Valuation Department)的数据,从2018年7月到12月,住宅价格降低近10%。在这一轮自2008年全球金融危机以来环比幅度最大的跌势中,去年11月房价指数降了3.5%。

After a 28-month streak of price increases — the longest in the city’s history — it seemed things were finally starting to cool off.

在连续上涨28个月之后——该市有史以来最长的记录——市场似乎终于开始降温了。

Behind this trend, experts say, are a number of factors. While Hong Kong’s economy continues to hum along, property prices were hurt by a series of events over the past few months: growing trade tensions between China and the United States, the interest rate increase in the United States, a cooling economy in China that has caused a drop in the value of the nation’s currency and the volatility of the Hang Seng index.

专家表示,这一趋势背后存在多种因素。虽然香港经济仍在稳步推进,但过去几个月来的一连串事件给房价造成了不利影响:中美之间的贸易紧张关系不断加剧,美国利率提高,中国经济降温导致人民币贬值,引发恒生指数震荡。

But some analysts already see signs of a turnaround.

但一些分析人士已看到回转迹象。

Ms. Wong, of CLSA, said she was bullish about the market. She pointed out that the Federal Reserve announced in January that it would halt interest rate increases, China’s central bank had taken action to stabilize the renminbi and Hong Kong’s stocks were coming back. Ms. Wong said she expected home prices to start rising again.

里昂证券的王豔称,她对市场十分看好。她指出,美联储1月公布将停止加息,中国的央行已采取措施稳定人民币汇率,香港股市也在回弹。王豔称她预计房价将再度上升。

Already, the number of property viewings in late January and early February rose, during what is typically a quiet period before the Chinese New Year holiday.

早在1月底和2月初(这期间是中国春节假期,平常是淡季)看房人次已经增加。

The number of transactions made above bank valuations has also returned to the two-year average after a monthslong slump, she said.

她表示,据银行自身的估值来看,交易量已从持续数月的下滑中回到两年来的均值。

“The latest prices have actually stabilized and are coming up from the bottom,” said Ms. Wong, adding that she expected property prices to increase by 15 percent.

王豔称,“近期房价事实上已趋于稳定,并正从底部开始上升,”她接着说她预计房价将上涨15%。

A substantial uptick in demand may also come from a large pool of Chinese mainlanders who have lived in the city for seven years and will qualify for Hong Kong permanent residency this year, which will exempt them from the extra taxes levied on nonresident property buyers, Ms. Wong said.

王豔称,需求的大幅增加还可能来自一大批已在香港住满7年、今年将获香港永居资格的中国大陆人士,届时他们将无需缴纳对非居民房产购买者所征收的额外税费。

Whether Hong Kong’s property market slumps further, as some industry watchers fear, or regains steam and continues its march upward, one underlying fact will in all likelihood remain unchanged: Homes in this city are wildly unaffordable for the overwhelming majority of residents.

无论香港房产市场是会如一些行业观察人士担心的那样进一步下跌,还是重获动力、继续上涨,可能都不会改变一项基本事实:香港的住宅房价远远超过多数居民的承受能力。

“The Hamptons of Hong Kong’’

“香港的汉普顿”

Nowhere are Hong Kong’s sky-high property prices on fuller display than at the Peak, the high-end residential neighborhood of the superwealthy where the potential buyer abandoned the $4.6 million deposit.

最能体现香港摩天房价的地带莫过于太平山顶,也就是前述那位潜在买家放弃460万美元定金的一片富豪云集的高端住宅区。

Back in Hong Kong’s colonial days, laws were put in place to make sure that only Europeans were allowed to own property on the Peak. Those laws are long gone, and today anyone who can afford to do so can live there. It’s just that very few people can.

在香港昔日的殖民时代,有专门的法律确保只有欧洲人才能获准拥有太平山顶的房产。那些法律早已成为过去,今天任何能负担得起的人都能住在那里。只不过只有极少数人可以。

“For the average person, your income per annum may buy the bathroom,” said Beverly Sunn, the founder and president of Asia Pacific Properties, a Hong Kong real estate company. One house last year sold for $114.9 million, or $20,400 per square foot, while another sold for $178.5 million, or $19,400 per square foot.

“对普通人而言,年收入可能只够买浴室,”香港房产公司亚太房产亚太置业有限公司(Asia Pacific Properties)创始人兼总裁贝佛利·孙(Beverly Sunn)说。去年,一栋房子以1.149亿美元售出,折合每平方英尺2.04万美元,另一栋售价1.785亿美元,每平方英尺1.94万美元。

“It’s the Hamptons of Hong Kong,” said Ms. Sunn, who has kept a close watch on the neighborhood’s real estate market and has seen it change over the years.

“那是香港的汉普顿,”贝佛利·孙说,她一直密切关注这片社区的房产市场,目睹了多年来的变化。

Whereas much of the property around the Peak in the past few decades was held by large British companies, multinationals and wealthy non-Chinese locals, the past 10 years have seen an influx of money from Chinese investors.

虽然过去几十年来,太平山顶周围的大部分房产都为大型英国公司、跨国公司和非华裔的本地富人所持有,过去十年来,中国投资者开始大批注资。

“You’ve seen just a tremendous amount of Chinese companies, and individuals, and heads of these companies, purchasing into this premier real estate area,” Ms. Sunn said.

“你能看到数量堪称巨大的中国公司、个人、公司高层都在购买这一带的顶级房产,”贝佛利·孙说。

Original houses disappearing

老房子在消失

As property prices on the Peak have risen along with the rest of the city’s real estate market, homeowners have increasingly turned to redeveloping their lots into complexes — mostly low-rise apartment buildings, but also smaller townhouses — that can generate huge profits. That has often meant knocking down houses that date to the 19th century.

随着太平山顶的地产价格和这座城市其他地方的房地产市场一起增长,越来越多的房主转而将他们的土地重新开发成综合体——大多是低层公寓楼,但也有较小的联排住宅——这样可以产生巨大的利润。这通常意味着要推倒那些可以上溯至19世纪的房屋。

“I don’t think there are many houses on the Peak that remain in the same form as when they were first built,” said Ho Puay-peng, a professor of architecture at the National University of Singapore. “They’ve been demolished and redeveloped. Very few original houses remain on the Peak.”

“我认为山顶已经没有多少房子还保留着它们最初所建造时的样子了,”新加坡国立大学建筑教授何培斌说,“它们被拆除然后重建,山顶很少有原来的房子还留着。”

House 16, the $92 million property that was suddenly left without a buyer this year, is part of a new, super-luxurious development named Mount Nicholson, built on a plot of land that the government sold to a property developer in 2010 for $1.3 billion. The development, tucked away at the top of a quiet road, features 19 detached houses and 48 apartments, and the first properties hit the market in 2015.

今年突然没了买主的那座9200万美元宅邸“16号洋房”,是一个名为利嘉阁(Mount Nicholson)的超豪华新开发项目的一部分,建造在一块政府2010年以13亿美元卖给房地产开发商的土地上。该项目隐藏在一条安静道路的顶端,有19座独立房屋和48套公寓,首批房产在2015年上市。

House 16’s price tag is nothing compared with the sale of a stand-alone pink house with a lawn and a pool on 5 Pollock Path, a cul-de-sac that a few years ago was named the most expensive street in the world.

比起普乐道5号那幢带草坪和游泳池的独立粉色住宅的售价,16号洋房的标价简直是微不足道。普乐道是一条独头巷道,几年前被称为世界上最贵的街道。

It is one of the few remaining original houses on the Peak.

它是太平山顶上仅存的几栋原始房屋之一。

Half a century ago, this house was not luxurious in any sense of the word.

半个世纪前,这座房子从任何意义上来看都与豪华无关。

When Charles and Rosamond Brown bought it in the 1960s, it was a wreck, the garden overgrown and the windows ajar, exposing the interior to damage from the elements. The Browns had so little money back then that they painted it themselves.

当查尔斯(Charles)和罗莎蒙德·布朗(Rosamond Brown)在1960年代买下它的时候,这里是一片狼藉,花园杂草丛生,窗户半开,室内暴露在恶劣天气的侵蚀下。那时布朗一家的钱太少了,所以他们自己粉刷了房子。

More than five decades later, Mrs. Brown, now a widow, sold the house in 2017 for 3.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $408 million, including tax. It was arranged after the sale that Mrs. Brown would rent it back until summer 2018, according to The South China Morning Post.

50多年后,布朗夫人已成了寡妇,2017年,她以含税32亿港元(约合4.08亿美元)的价格出售了这栋房子。据《南华早报》报道,在售出后,该处房屋已安排好由布朗夫人租回,直至2018年夏天。

Now, with the house sold to a new owner named Yeung Kin-man, a Hong Kong-born businessman, no one knows what the future holds for the property. It may be lost to the wrecking ball, like most of the old Peak houses since a trend of demolitions started in the late 1970s and early ’80s, when the city’s property market started to boom. Or it may be preserved, a nod to the house’s history and the changes it has witnessed around it.

现在,随着这栋房子被卖给了一个名叫杨建文的新买家,一名香港出生的商人,没人知道这处房产的未来会怎样。它可能会被夷为平地,就像在上个世纪70年代末至80年代初开始的那股拆迁潮中消失的大多数山顶老房子一样。又或者它会被保存起来,以向这座房子的历史以及它所见证的周遭变化致敬。

While some bemoan the loss of history on the Peak, others think that trying to conserve the few remaining old houses there is ultimately futile.

尽管有些人对太平山顶历史的遗失感到惋惜,但也有人认为,试图保护这里仅存的几栋老房子最终是徒劳的。

The demolition of a Peak property called Ho Tung Gardens in 2013 is emblematic of the difficulties and realities of historical conservation in fast-paced Hong Kong. The estate was built in 1927 by Sir Robert Hotung, a Hong Kong businessman and the first Chinese person to be granted permission to own property on the Peak.

2013年,一处名为何东花园(Ho Tung Gardens)的太平山顶地产被拆除,这反映了在快节奏的香港,历史保护所面临的困境与现实。该地产是1927年由香港商人何东爵士(Sir Robert Hotung)建造的,他是第一个获准拥有太平山顶房产的华人。

The city’s government had wanted to preserve the entire complex, but talks with the owner broke down. The owner ordered the main building to be bulldozed, and in 2015 the estate was sold to a developer for a record 5.1 billion Hong Kong dollars. The government’s preservation efforts had been no match for a private developer with much deeper pockets, and another piece of history was lost.

市政府原想将整个建筑群保存下来,但与业主的谈判破裂了。业主下令以推土机清除主楼,并在2015年以创纪录的51亿港元的价格将其卖给了开发商。对于财力雄厚得多的私人开发商来说,政府的保护工作根本无法与之匹敌。另一段历史就此丢失。

For Lee Ho Yin, a professor and the director of architectural conservation programs at the University of Hong Kong, the solution is straightforward: If history is lost on the Peak, then so be it. “With Hong Kong’s conservation, we cannot look into the past anymore,” Mr. Lee said. “There’s not enough past left, not enough history. Hong Kong’s conservation has to look into the future and think about what happens in 20, 30, 50 years’ time.”

香港大学教授、建筑保护学部主任李浩然认为,解决办法很简单:如果历史在太平山顶上消失了,那就顺其自然吧。“关于香港的保护,我们不能再回顾过去,”李浩然说。“这里没有足够的过去,也没有足够的历史。香港的保护工作必须放眼未来,想想二十年后、三十年后、五十年后会发生什么。”

That future, he said, revolves around heritage conservation in old neighborhoods in the city’s core where there is a larger stock of postwar buildings that can be preserved and refurbished for commercial uses.

他说,未来的工作将围绕城市核心老城区的遗产保护展开,那里有大量的战后建筑可供保存或翻新,用于商业用途。

“What is Hong Kong? What is the nature of Hong Kong?” Mr. Lee said. “It’s an economic city. That is our thing. It’s how we’ve become what we are today. We have to play to our strengths and not try to be something else.”

“香港是什么?香港的本质是什么?”李浩然说,“这是一座经济城市。那是我们的特点。是我们之所以成为今日的我们。我们必须发挥我们的优势,而不是试图成为其他东西。”

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