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穆勒调查未发现特朗普“通俄”意味着什么

更新时间:2019/3/25 21:06:56 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

A Cloud Over Trump’s Presidency Is Lifted
穆勒调查未发现特朗普“通俄”意味着什么

WASHINGTON — For President Trump, it may have been the best day of his tenure so far. The darkest, most ominous cloud hanging over his presidency was all but lifted on Sunday with the release of the special counsel’s conclusions, which undercut the threat of impeachment and provided him with a powerful boost for the final 22 months of his term.

华盛顿——对特朗普总统而言,这可能是他上任以来最好的一天。周日,随着特别检察官调查结论的发布,盘旋在总统职位上空最不详的一片黑云全然消散。报告结论根除了弹劾总统的威胁,为他任期的最后22个月提供了有利助推。

There are still other clouds overhead and no one outside the Justice Department has actually read the report by Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel, which may yet disclose damning information if made public. But the end of the investigation without findings of collusion with Russia fortified the president for the battles to come, including his campaign for re-election.

但仍有其他疑云盘桓在头顶。事实上,除司法部外,尚无其他一人读过特别检察官罗伯特·S·穆勒三世(Robert S. Mueller III)的报告,而一旦公之于众,其可能会披露不利的信息。但调查报告结尾未发现通俄的结论为总统接下来的战斗壮大了声势,包括他的连任竞选。

While critics will still argue about whether Mr. Trump tried to obstruct justice, the president quickly claimed vindication and Republican allies pounced on their Democratic colleagues for what they called an unrelenting partisan campaign against him. Even as his own party’s congressional leaders called on the country to move on, however, the president indicated that he may not be ready to, denouncing the very existence of Mr. Mueller’s investigation as “an illegal takedown that failed” and calling for a counterinvestigation into how it got started.

虽然批评者仍在争论特朗普是否构成妨碍司法,但总统很快表示自己已经证明了清白,共和党盟友也揪住民主党方面不放,称他们对总统发起无休止的党派行动。尽管他自己所在政党的国会领袖在呼吁国家应该向前看,但总统却表示,他可能没准备好那么做。他谴责穆勒调查的存在本身是“非法打压未遂”,呼吁就其如何得以开始发起反调查。

Emboldened and angry, the president can now proceed with his administration without the distraction of new search warrants and indictments by Mr. Mueller’s team or the worry that the special counsel might charge Mr. Trump’s family members or even uncover a smoking gun that would prove that his campaign collaborated with the Russian government to elect him in 2016. The questions about the Kremlin’s election interference that dogged the president almost everywhere he went may soon fade, even as other investigators continue to look into other allegations.

如今理直气壮、怒气冲冲的总统可以继续自己的执政,不用再为穆勒调查组的新搜捕令和起诉书分心,或担心特别检察官可能会控告特朗普的家庭成员,甚至拿出确凿证据,证明他的竞选团队曾为了他能在2016年当选而与俄罗斯政府串谋。关于克里姆林方面插手选举的疑问一直困扰着总统,如今这种疑问可能很快将消除,尽管其他调查人员还在继续就其他指控展开调查。

Mr. Mueller’s team confirmed that Russia did try to tilt the election to Mr. Trump, but their conclusion that he did not conspire with the effort may ease the way for Mr. Trump to reorient American foreign policy toward Moscow and its strongman president, Vladimir V. Putin, without as much concern about domestic consequences. And it may give renewed confidence to Mr. Trump, who has complained that his dealings with world leaders have been hobbled by their uncertainty about whether he would survive the investigation.

穆勒调查组证实,俄罗斯的确曾试图使选举倾向特朗普一边,但他们得出了他没有与之串谋的结论,这可能使特朗普不用太多顾忌国内的后果,方便他着手于针对莫斯科及其强人总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的美国外交政策转向。此外,它还可能会使特朗普重拾信心,他抱怨过和世界领导人的交涉因他们不确定他是否能挺过调查而受到牵制。

The end of Mr. Mueller’s inquiry also left Democrats on the defensive and will force them to decide how vigorously to continue pursuing allegations of misconduct by the president and his allies, including many that were unexamined by the special counsel, whose mandate was limited to Russia’s interference in the election and any possible obstruction of justice resulting from it.

穆勒调查的结论还使民主党处于守势,并将迫使他们决定如何继续对总统及其盟友的行为不当发起有力指控,包括多项特别检察官并未查验的指控。检察官的授权范围仅限于俄罗斯插手选举一事及由此导致的任何妨碍司法的可能。

While Mr. Trump claimed that Mr. Mueller’s findings were “a complete and total exoneration,” Mr. Mueller explicitly said they were not. Although he did not establish a conspiracy with Russia, Mr. Mueller made no determination when it came to obstruction of justice. “While this report does not conclude that the president committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” he wrote, according to the Justice Department summary sent to Congress.

虽然特朗普称穆勒的调查结果是“完完全全的责任豁免”,但穆勒明确表示过并非如此。尽管他不构成与俄罗斯串谋,但穆勒在妨碍司法方面未作决断。根据司法部提交给国会的摘要,穆勒写道,“本报告未得出总统犯下罪行的结论,但亦未对他做出责任的免除。”

Instead, according to the summary, Mr. Mueller laid out various actions by Mr. Trump that could be seen as obstruction, letting others decide whether they added up to that. William P. Barr, the attorney general recently appointed by Mr. Trump after drafting a private memo expressing doubt that the president could be accused of obstructing justice for exercising his constitutional power, concluded on Sunday that they did not.

相反,根据摘要内容,穆勒列举了特朗普可能被视为妨碍司法的种种行为,让其他人去决定最终是否构成这一罪行。特朗普最近任命的司法部长威廉·P·巴尔(William P. Barr)周日总结称罪名不成立。巴尔此前撰写过一份不公开的备忘录,对总统可能因行驶宪法权力而被控妨碍司法表示了担忧。

But the House, controlled by Democrats, has the power under the Constitution to decide for itself whether the president’s actions constituted “high crimes and misdemeanors” that justify impeachment, and it could interpret Mr. Mueller’s evidence the other way once it sees it.

但是,由民主党控制的众议院有权根据宪法自行决定总统的行为是否构成作为弹劾正当依据的“重罪和轻罪”,看到穆勒的证据后,众议院可能会以另一种方式解读。

The next phase of the story, then, will be the fight by House Democrats to force Mr. Barr to turn over Mr. Mueller’s full report and accompanying evidence, a constitutional battle that could ultimately be resolved in the courts.

接下来,众议院民主党人将迫使巴尔交出穆勒的完整报告和相关证据,这将是一场最终可能在法庭上解决的宪法战。

Until they read the report for themselves, Democrats are hardly going to agree that the president has been cleared. And they will most likely summon Mr. Mueller to testify, which could provide a public airing of Mr. Trump’s actions that, even if not rising to a crime, may not reflect well on the president.

在亲自读到这份报告之前,民主党人很难同意总统已经被证明清白。他们很可能会传唤穆勒作证,从而公布特朗普的行为,这些行为即使没有达到犯罪的地步,也可能对总统造成不好的影响。

Still, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already said that she did not favor impeachment unless the evidence was “so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan,” a standard that seems even less likely to be met now.

尽管如此,众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)已表示,她不赞成弹劾,除非证据是“令人信服的、压倒性的、能取得两党共识的”,这一标准现在看来更不可能得到满足了。

Either way, Mr. Mueller’s investigation has taken its toll on this presidency, leading to indictments, convictions or guilty pleas for a half-dozen of Mr. Trump’s associates, including his campaign chairman and national security adviser, and spawning offshoot investigations. In any other administration, that record alone would be enough to seriously damage a president.

不管怎样,穆勒的调查对特朗普的总统任期产生了负面影响,导致六名特朗普的助手被起诉、定罪或认罪,其中包括他的竞选团队主席和国家安全顾问,此外还引发了一系列调查。在其他任何一届政府中,单凭这样的记录就足以对总统造成严重损害。

Moreover, as Mr. Mueller closes up shop, federal, state and congressional investigators are still examining Mr. Trump’s business, his finances, his inaugural committee and his associates.

此外,穆勒的调查结束后,联邦、州和国会调查人员仍在调查特朗普的生意、财务状况、其就职委员会以及他的关连人。

Federal prosecutors in New York have implicated Mr. Trump in a scheme to violate campaign finance laws by directing hush money to two women to keep them from talking before the 2016 election about alleged extramarital affairs with him. The State of New York forced him to close his foundation after finding a “shocking pattern of illegality.” The House Judiciary Committee has sought documents from 81 people or entities associated with Mr. Trump on a wide variety of topics.

纽约联邦检察官指控特朗普参与了一项违反竞选财务法律的阴谋——向两名女性提供封口费,阻止她们在2016年大选前谈论与特朗普的婚外情。纽约州发现了“令人震惊的非法模式”,迫使特朗普关闭了自己的基金会。众议院司法委员会(House Judiciary Committee)已经从81名与特朗普有关的人士或实体那里获得了各种各样的文件。

But Mr. Mueller had bipartisan stature and credibility that none of the president’s other pursuers have, despite Mr. Trump’s own efforts to tear him down. Now the president who routinely assailed Mr. Mueller and his “13 Angry Democrats” for their “witch hunt” will surely use the results of the special counsel investigation to dismiss all others as part of a pattern of conspiracy mongering and vindictive persecution, whatever the facts may or may not show.

尽管特朗普也曾试图攻击穆勒,但穆勒在两党中拥有的声望和信誉,是总统的其他调查者所不具备的。总统本来就经常抨击穆勒及他手下“13名愤怒的民主党人”进行“政治迫害”,如今,不管事实如何,他肯定会利用特别检察官的调查结果,声称其他指控也是阴谋论和报复性迫害的手段。

He presumably will not convince his many critics of that, but he may reinforce his political base heading into a re-election battle where Mr. Trump’s ethical and legal issues will surely be a major focus of debate. In polls, core Republican voters already have expressed deep skepticism about the allegations against Mr. Trump and the legitimacy of the investigations into them.

他大概无法说服许多批评者,但他可能得以在竞选连任之际巩固自己的政治基础,届时他的道德和法律问题肯定会成为辩论的主要焦点。在民意调查中,共和党核心选民已对针对特朗普的指控及调查的合法性表示了深深的怀疑。

“Not indicted” or “not impeached” may not have been much of a bumper sticker in times past, but in today’s polarized political environment, each side sees these issues through its own lens.

在过去,“未予起诉”或”未予弹劾”这样的话可能不至于值得贴到汽车保险杠上,但在当今两极分化的政治环境中,各方都会从自己的角度看待这些问题。

The notion that the system came after Mr. Trump in the form of Mr. Mueller and failed to take him down will fit neatly into the president’s narrative of grievance and victimization, energizing his self-portrayal as a threat to the existing order.

穆勒代表了一种对抗特朗普的体系,如今没能把他赶下台——这样的看法正好符合总统牢骚满腹、自命为受害者的叙事,让他可以进一步把自己描绘成对现有秩序的威胁。

For Mr. Trump, that is as good a day as they come.

对特朗普来说,这算得上最好的结果了。

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