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为与朝鲜达成协议,特朗普或降低无核化目标

更新时间:2019/2/27 19:54:16 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Seeking North Korea Deal, Trump Seems Willing to Ease U.S. Demands
为与朝鲜达成协议,特朗普或降低无核化目标

HANOI, Vietnam — When he vowed to “solve” the North Korea problem just before his inauguration two years ago, President Donald Trump made clear he meant eliminating its nuclear arsenal.

越南河内——就在两年前,唐纳德·特朗普总统在就职典礼前发誓要“解决”朝鲜问题,他明确表示,他的意思是消除朝鲜的核武库。

But on the eve of a second meeting with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, the president sounds prepared to accept much less, at least for the foreseeable future.

但在与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)第二次会晤前夕,总统似乎准备接受更少的条件,至少在可预见的未来是这样。

“I don’t want to rush anybody,” he said this past weekend. “As long as there is no testing, we’re happy,” he added, pointing to the North’s suspension of nuclear and missile tests.

他在上周末说:“我不想催促任何人。”他还说:“只要没有核试验,我们就很高兴,”他是指朝鲜暂停核试验和导弹试验。

Even to some of Trump’s national security aides, that sounded like a significant retreat at a critical moment.

甚至特朗普的一些国家安全助理也觉得,总统的话听上去像是关键时刻的重大撤退。

As he landed in Hanoi late Tuesday, Trump appeared determined to change America’s relationship with a nation that has been a bitter and brutal adversary for nearly 70 years — and willing to shift his administration’s goals to do so, from immediate dismantlement of the North’s arsenal to limits on its size and reach.

特朗普于周二晚间抵达河内,他似乎决心改变美国与一个敌国之间的关系,70年来,这个国家一直保持着恶毒和残酷的敌对姿态;他似乎也愿意改变其政府的目标——从推动朝鲜立即解除核武器,变为限制其规模和范围。

It is unclear whether the two men will emerge in the coming days with any of the breakthroughs that appear in the mix for discussion: a freeze on nuclear production, a peace agreement aimed at formally ending the Korean War, or a schedule for dismantling the North’s arsenal.

目前还不清楚,未来几天,两人是否能够取得曾经谈及的那些突破性进展:冻结核生产,达成旨在正式结束朝鲜战争的和平协议,以及制定解除朝鲜武器库的时间表。

But they chose Vietnam for obvious reasons: It is a bustling symbol of how a country that once fought the United States can become a fast-growing economy even while retaining a heavy dose of authoritarian rule.

但他们选择越南的原因很明显:它是繁荣的象征,表明曾经与美国作战的国家也可以成为快速增长的经济体,同时又保持很大程度的威权统治。

And for both leaders, it is a moment of critical choices. Kim needs to make good on promises to nurture the North Korean economy and maintain the military might to ensure his country’s survival, while Trump faces the biggest opportunity of his presidency yet for a diplomatic breakthrough — and the stark risks of underdelivering on a signature issue after threatening “fire and fury” only months ago.

对于两位领导人来说,这是做出关键抉择的时刻。金正恩需要兑现承诺,发展朝鲜经济和维护军事力量,以确保朝鲜的生存,而特朗普面临其任期内取得外交突破的最佳机会——同时也面对在一个标志性问题上反应迟钝的重大风险,几个月前,他还威胁要以“炮火与怒火”来解决这个问题。

Trump has an even higher hurdle to clear: his dismissal of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, a “terrible” and naive deal, in his telling, that was guaranteed to eventually pave the way for the country to obtain a nuclear weapon.

特朗普还有一个更大的障碍需要清除:他拒绝接受2015年与伊朗达成的核协议,用他的话说,这是一项“可怕”而且幼稚的协议,最终肯定会为伊朗获得核武器铺平道路。

What the world may learn when he meets with Kim for the second time in a year is whether he is willing to accept a weaker deal with North Korea — and whether he can sell it.

当他一年内第二次与金正恩会晤之际,整个世界可能会得知,他是否愿意接受与朝鲜达成一项更弱的协议——以及他是否能让人们接受它。

North Korea presents a far more difficult case than Iran. It already has an arsenal of as many as 30 nuclear weapons, as well as missiles that can reach the United States. Its devotion to that national project is so intense that Trump’s director of national intelligence, Dan Coats, angered him by saying last month that the North was “unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities” because they are “critical to regime survival.”

朝鲜的情况要比伊朗困难得多。它已经拥有多达30件核武器,以及能够打击美国的导弹。朝鲜对这个国家项目的投入是巨大的,因此特朗普的国家情报总监丹·科茨(Dan Coats)上个月说,朝鲜“不太可能完全放弃核武器和生产能力”,因为这“对政权的生存至关重要”,这番话令特朗普非常生气。

If Coats is right, the president’s warm embrace of Kim could encourage other countries to make a sprint for the nuclear finish line, convinced that in the end, the United States will learn to live with yet another nuclear power.

如果科茨是对的,总统对金正恩的热情接纳可能会促使其他国家相信,美国终将学会接受又一个核大国,因此也纷纷向核终点冲刺。

Trump hopes to be remembered in history for bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula. But he also risks becoming the president on whose watch North Korea demonstrated an ability both to hit the United States with a missile and to detonate a hydrogen bomb — and who then gave it such a good deal that others decided to build nuclear arsenals, too.

特朗普希望因为给朝鲜半岛带来和平而被载入史册。但他也有可能和以前的总统们一样,眼睁睁地看着朝鲜展示以导弹袭击美国和引爆氢弹的能力,并且签下一份对朝鲜非常有利,令其他国家也决心发展核武库的协议。

Even some hard-liners in Washington, though, see the potential of Trump’s gamble. “The stars have kind of lined up,” said Andy Kim, a former head of the CIA’s Korea mission center, and the man who last year ran messages between the two leaders.

就连华盛顿的一些强硬派也看到了特朗普赌博的潜在可能性。“各种条件已经差不多具备了,”中央情报局朝鲜任务中心前负责人安迪·金(Andy Kim)说,去年他曾在两位领导人之间传递消息。

Speaking at Stanford University last week, he recalled that the young North Korean leader told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang that he was thinking of the future: “I’m a father and a husband. And I have children. And I don’t want my children to carry the nuclear weapon on their back their whole life.”

他上周在斯坦福大学(Stanford University)发表演讲时回忆道,这位年轻的朝鲜领导人在平壤对美国国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)说,他在为未来做打算:“我是父亲和丈夫。我有孩子。我不希望我的孩子们一辈子都要背负着核武器。”

Pompeo left the meeting hopeful, but wary.

会后庞皮欧满怀希望,但也很谨慎。

The secretary of state bristled last week when asked to reflect on how the lessons of the Iran deal applied to North Korea. Sounding exasperated, he said they were “very different situations” and insisted that “the full and final denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in a verifiable manner” remained the ultimate goal.

上周,当被问及伊朗核协议的教训如何适用于朝鲜时,国务卿勃然大怒。他恼火地表示二者是“非常不同的情况”,并坚称“以可核查的方式实现朝鲜半岛的全面和最终无核化”仍是最终目标。

But whatever deal emerges in Vietnam will be compared to the one that President Barack Obama struck more than three years ago with Iran, and that Trump has now abandoned. In return for a lifting of sanctions, Tehran agreed to ship 97 percent of its atomic fuel out of the country and to halt virtually all new production until 2030.

但无论在越南达成什么样的协议,都会被拿来与奥巴马总统在三年多以前与伊朗达成的协议进行比较(该协议现在已被特朗普废除)。根据那份协议,作为对取消制裁的交换条件,德黑兰同意将97%的核燃料运出伊朗,并在2030年前停止几乎所有新的核燃料的生产。

“The irony is that the best possible outcome for North Korea would look something like the Iran deal,” said Robert Litwak, who has compared the negotiations in his work at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars in Washington.

“具有讽刺意味的是,对朝鲜来说,最好的结果可能就是达成类似于伊朗协议,”华盛顿伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者中心(Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars in Washington)的罗伯特·利特瓦克(Robert Litwak)说。他的研究包括对两次谈判的比较。

There are a few other comparisons, from Ukraine to Kazakhstan to South Africa to Libya, that will also hang over the meetings. All gave up nuclear arsenals or the equipment to build one. But as Trump has discovered, there has never been a problem quite as complex as North Korea.

从乌克兰到哈萨克斯坦,从南非到利比亚,这次会面也笼罩在其他一些比较的阴影之下。所有这些国家都放弃了核武库或建造核武库的设备。但正如特朗普发现的那样,它们都不像朝鲜问题那样复杂。

Perhaps for that reason, Trump has moved away from using denuclearization as a measure of success, instead citing the dialogue itself — and the warmth between him and a dictator half his age — as the metric of progress. With an eye on the Nobel Prize, he may not get any closer than this to an agreement as momentous as those that Ronald Reagan reached with Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union.

或许出于这个原因,特朗普已经不再把无核化作为衡量成功的标准,而是用对话本身——以及他与一位只有他一半年纪的独裁者之间的友情——来衡量进展。对于希望得到诺贝尔奖的他而言,这可能是他最接近罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)与苏联最后一位领导人米哈伊尔·S·戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail S. Gorbachev)之间达成的那种重大协议的时候。

Speaking on CNN on Sunday, Pompeo drew a contrast with the Obama strategy for dealing with Pyongyang, which he said came down to test, pray and cower.

周日接受CNN采访时,庞皮欧比较了奥巴马与平壤打交道的策略。他说,奥巴马的战略可以归结为试验、祈祷和畏缩。

“Let them test missiles, let them test nuclear weapons, pray they stop, and cower when the North Koreans made a threat,” he said.

“让他们试验导弹,让他们试验核武器,祈祷他们停下来,然后在朝鲜人发出威胁时退缩,”他说。

Trump and his national security team often cite the North’s moratorium on missile and nuclear testing, now stretching into its 16th month, as their biggest achievement so far.

特朗普和他的国家安全团队经常把朝鲜暂停导弹和核试验(目前这种状况已经维持了16个月)作为迄今为止所取得的最大成就。

The testing moratorium is in fact significant. As Siegfried Hecker, a former head of Los Alamos National Laboratory, noted recently, “If you can’t test, you can’t make progress.”

暂停试验的确有重大意义。正如洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室(Los Alamos National Laboratory)前负责人西格弗里德·赫克(Siegfried Hecker)最近指出的,“如果你不能进行测试,就无法取得进展。”

And North Korea has not yet demonstrated it can design an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead that could survive the heat and stresses of returning through the atmosphere to reach its target.

而朝鲜尚未证明它有能力设计出重返大气层打击目标时能经受高温和压力的洲际弹道导弹。

But a halt to testing is not denuclearization. To make progress toward that goal, Trump needs to persuade Kim to begin dismantling the country’s main nuclear complex at Yongbyon, including a uranium enrichment facility shown to Hecker eight years ago — and to do so under the watch of outside inspectors. North Korea is also widely believed to operate at least one clandestine uranium enrichment plant outside Yongbyon.

但停止核试验并不是无核化。为了实现这个目标,特朗普需要说服金正恩开始拆除朝鲜在宁边的主要核设施,包括8年前向赫克展示的一个铀浓缩设施,并在外部核查人员的监督下进行拆除。外界普遍认为,朝鲜在宁边边上至少有一处秘密的铀浓缩工厂。

“It will be particularly bad for South Korea and President Moon if Trump declares peace and changes the status of the U.S. military presence in the South” before denuclearization, said Lee Byong-chul, a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul. “There will be a huge conservative backlash in South Korea.”

“如果特朗普宣布和平,并改变美国在韩国的军事存在,这对韩国和文在寅总统尤其不利,”首尔的和平与合作研究所(Institute for peace and Cooperation)高级研究员李秉哲(Lee Byong-chul)说。“韩国的保守派将出现巨大的反弹。”

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