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德国年轻人对自己国家感到悲观的原因

更新时间:2019/2/2 9:14:46 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Why young Germans are feeling gloomy about their country
德国年轻人对自己国家感到悲观的原因

The German economy is booming. Unemployment is at a near-record low. In Europe and around the world, the country is seen as a beacon of wealth and efficiency.

德国经济一片繁荣,失业率接近历史最低点,很多人对自己的财务状况感到满意, 欧洲乃至整个世界都视之为财富和效率的典范。

So why are these prosperous young Germans so doggedly pessimistic about their future? Good job prospects, a clean environment, low crime rates, lots of leisure time and cultural attractions, good transport links – what’s not to like? But there are problems below the surface that could impact the younger generation.

那么,那些富有、舒适的德国年轻人为什么对自己的未来有着如此执着的悲观情绪呢?良好的工作前景、清洁的环境、低犯罪率、大把的休闲时间、大批的文娱设施、便捷的交通系统——还有什么让人不满意的呢?但是,表象之下,德国也存在着可能会冲击年轻一代的问题。

Peter Matuschek, chief political analyst at the German polling institute Forsa, says that while Germans tend to be content with their own lives, they feel less at ease with the direction the country is taking.

德国民调机构福沙舆论调查所(Forsa)的首席政治分析师马图舍克(Peter Matuschek)表示,虽然德国人普遍对生活比较满意,但对于国家未来的走向却不那么放心。

In polling Forsa did for the German broadcaster RTL, 81% were very happy or happy with their own personal financial situation; asked about the country more broadly, that figure dropped 10%. And while 71% said they were happy with the German political system as it’s supposed to operate, just 14% were happy with how it actually functions.

在福沙为德国RTL广播公司所做的民调中,81%的人对自己的财务状况非常满意或者满意;在从更广泛的角度询问对国家的满意度时,这个数字下降了10%。虽然71%的人对德国政治体制的理应运作方式感到满意,但只有14%的人对其实际运作状况感到满意。

When it comes to the economy, for example, Matuschek told BBC Capital that perceptions had shifted starkly over the course of the last year. Asked whether the economy would improve or deteriorate, Germans in January were split fairly evenly. Since the summer, however, there has been a shift of nearly 20% towards greater pessimism.

比如,马图舍克告诉BBC Capital,在过去一年间,人们对经济的看法发生了明显的变化。在问及经济状况是会改善还是恶化时,1月份的时候,德国人的态度是一半一半。然而自从夏天以来,持悲观态度的人增长了20%。

And while the assumption may be that this is a phenomenon among older Germans, it’s also very much affecting the younger generation. Mirroring the post-Brexit vote UK, the data shows that young people feel they’ve been saddled with the problems of their parents and grandparents - and that their political future has been determined by an older generation.

人们或许会猜想这种现象在德国年纪较大的人群当中更为普遍,但它对年轻一代也有着很大的影响。与英国脱欧公投后的情况类似,数据表明,年轻一代觉得他们背负着父母和祖父母留下的问题——他们的政治未来已经由老一辈决定了。

To be fair, it has been a tumultuous summer for Germans. A high-profile showdown over migration nearly brought down the government. Mesut Özil, a member of Germany’s national football team who is of Turkish descent, quit this summer after alleging racism from team members and fans. The incident forced broader discussions about the prevalence of everyday racism in Germany.

公平地讲,对德国人来说,这的确是一个动荡的夏天。各党派在移民问题上高调摊牌,几乎导致德国现政府垮台。德国国家足球队球员厄齐尔(Mesut Ozil)是土耳其裔,今年夏天他离开了国家队,之前厄齐尔指控受到队员和球迷的种族歧视。这一事件促使德国人对日常生活中的种族歧视展开更大规模的谈论。

And in late August, video footage of far-right sympathisers rioting and chasing foreigners through the streets of Chemnitz, a town in the East German state of Saxony, shook the country and reopened questions about the extent to which Germany has learned from its past.

8月下旬,德国东部萨克森州开姆尼茨(Chemnitz)爆发骚乱,极右思潮支持者追逐外国人。视频曝光后举国震惊,并重新引发热议——德国究竟从历史中吸取了多少教训?

A feeling of crisis has played out in German media. In late June, shortly after the German national team failed to advance to the second round of the World Cup, German magazine Der Spiegel ran a cover entitled: “Once upon a time, there was a strong country” (Es war einmal ein starkes Land). “The crises in politics, economics and sports are the result of complacency,” Der Spiegel’s cover story said. “How could it come to this?”

德国媒体上出现了一种危机感。6月下旬,在德国国家队未能晋级世界杯第二轮之后没过多久,德国《明镜周刊》(Der Spiegel)封面文章质疑:《曾几何时,这是一个强大的国家》。文中写道,“自满导致政治、经济和体育危机,” “为什么会成这样?”

This was followed by similarly gloomy pronouncements over the summer heat wave and what climate change could mean for Germany.

接下来是夏季热浪、气候变化对德国影响,舆论中也弥漫着类似的悲观情绪。

So what exactly is going on? Though these feelings of pessimism may perhaps seem like a media storm in a teacup, data and conversations with young Germans bear the phenomenon out.

这到底是怎么一回事?尽管这些悲观情绪看起来可能不过是媒体小题大做,但数据以及与德国年轻人的交谈证实了这个现象的存在。

For young people, a great deal of this pessimism comes from watching the rise of the far-right political party Alternative for Germany (AfD). Many feel it represents a breakdown of the way Germany discusses politics and policy.

对年轻人来说,这种悲观情绪很大程度上是因为看到极右翼政党德国选择党(Alternative for Germany)的崛起。许多人认为,它代表了德国议政方式的崩溃。

Till Baaken, a 28-year-old NGO staffer in Berlin, said the increasing influence of far-right populism meant the national conversation on politics and media was dominated by new - and increasingly hate-filled - topics.

28岁的巴肯(Till Baaken)在柏林为一家非政府组织工作,他说,极右民粹主义的影响越来越大,意味着全国范围内关于政治和媒体的讨论充斥着新生的、越来越充满仇恨的话题。

Since the rise of the the far right, "it seems to me that the whole political discourse is about migration and hate and crime,” he said. “It's not focused on the real problems that we are going to have, or that we’re having at the moment."

自极右翼势力崛起以来,“在我看来,整个政治对话都是关于移民、仇恨和犯罪,”他说。“关注的焦点并不在我们将面临的真正问题、或者我们眼下面临的问题上。”

Instead of a focus on migration, Baaken said, the government should spend more of its time improving the healthcare system, investing more in education and considering how to prepare the younger generation for a secure retirement.

巴肯说,政府不应该把焦点放在移民问题上,而是应该把更多时间用于改善医疗体系,加大对教育的投资,并考虑为年轻一代的退休保障做好准备。

Jule Löw, a 24-year-old student in Berlin, said Chemnitz was a sad reminder that Germany had not learned well enough from its own history. “Almost all of my life, I thought that with the things we’ve studied - German nationalism and the history of the last century - that we would have left that behind, that nationalism and racism,” she said. “And reality’s shown us differently.”

24岁的柏林学生洛(Jule Löw)说,开姆尼茨事件令人遗憾,表明德国并没有很好地从历史当中吸取教训。“我原来一直以为,我们通过学习德国民族主义和上个世纪的历史,就应该已经把民族主义和种族主义抛在身后,”她说。“但现实并非如此。”

What happened in Chemnitz may seem like an isolated event, Löw continued, but it’s proof that similar events could unfold anywhere in the country if the discourse doesn’t change. “In my neighborhood, until now it hasn’t happened yet,” she said. “But still, Chemnitz isn’t too far away from where we are right now.”

在开姆尼茨发生的似乎是一起孤立事件,洛继续说,但它证明了如果讨论不改变的话,类似的事情可能还会在这个国家的任何地方发生。”在我周围,目前还没有发生过这样的事情,“ 她说。“但是,我们离开姆尼茨并不远。"

There is also a feeling, even if things are going well right now, that Germany is on the brink of bigger financial and societal problems. In other words, many young Germans might feel they are in a good position now but fear that further down the line that might not be the case.

另外一种感觉是,即使德国现在一切顺利,但它处在更大的财政和社会问题的边缘。换句话说,许多德国年轻人可能觉得眼下的状况还不错,但他们担心未来某个时候可能就不是这样了。

"We are doing okay, or I am doing okay at the moment. But obviously if you look five to 10 years in the future, we’re at a certain crossway... on how the country develops,” Baaken said. “I think everyone's a bit worried about which course it's going to take with the rise of right-wing populism, and with the state not investing enough into education and infrastructure, our future."

“我们现在做的还行,或者说,我个人现在做的还不错。但显然,如果往未来看5到10年,会发现我们眼下处在一个十字路口…...我们的国家将何去何从,”巴肯说。“我认为每个人都有点担心,伴随着右翼民粹主义的崛起,以及国家对教育和基础设施投资不足,我们的未来在哪里。”

Compared with their peers in many other European countries, on the surface things look good for young Germans. Youth unemployment here was 6.4% in 2017, far lower than EU countries like Italy or Greece. But there is still a persistent feeling that the older generation isn’t focusing enough on areas that will impact young people.

与许多其它欧洲国家的同龄人相比,表面上看德国年轻人情况还不错。2017年,德国年轻人的失业率是6.4%,远远低于意大利或者希腊等欧盟国家。但还有一种挥之不去的感觉,老一代对影响年轻人的领域关注不够。

House prices have risen 80% in major cities since 2009, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report. Rents are also rising, it said, and there’s a national shortfall of about one million residential units. A recent OECD report, meanwhile, said that rapid population ageing “would challenge the financial sustainability of the public pension scheme”.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)最近的一份报告显示,自2009年以来,德国主要城市的房价上涨了80%。报告称,房租也在涨,全国住房短缺大约100万套。与此同时,经济合作组织最近也有报告称,德国人口迅速老龄化“对公共养老金计划是否可以维持构成了挑战”。

“The politics we have now here in Germany are more for middle-aged people, Baby Boomers - not for the younger generation,” said Aaron Hinze, a 24-year-old working in health care in Berlin. “When you look in the future and you ask who is paying my retirement when I’m old? Nobody.”

“现在在德国,政治更倾向于中年人、婴儿潮一代,而不是年轻一代,”24岁的欣策(Aaron Hinze)说。他在柏林从事医疗保健工作。“想想未来,你就会问,等我老了,谁来付我退休金?没人。”

Just because Germans are pessimistic about their future doesn’t mean others outside the country are so gloomy. Elsewhere in Europe and the world, Germany remains a land of plenty for young people interested in moving to greener pastures.

德国人对未来感到悲观,并不表示其它国家的人也这样。在欧洲和世界其它地方,德国依旧是繁荣之地,很多年轻人希望来这里,迈向更好的生活。

Dino Cviko, a 24-year-old journalism student in Sarajevo, told BBC Capital that he hoped to move to Germany when he finishes his studies - even if it means giving up the possibility of working in journalism. “Most of us actually want to move out of here, out of Bosnia,” he said. “Especially to Germany, our promised land.”

24岁的茨维科(Dino Cviko)是萨拉热窝的一名新闻专业学生,他对BBC Capital说,完成学业后希望搬到德国,即使这意味着可能放弃新闻工作。“我们大多数人其实都想离开这里,离开波斯尼亚,”他说。“尤其想去德国,我们心目中的乐土。”

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