您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 风尚 >> 正文

千禧一代是否有望成为最富有的一代

更新时间:2019/1/14 21:25:41 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Are millennials on track to become the richest generation?
千禧一代是否有望成为最富有的一代

With matters of money, millennials have an uphill climb.

在钱的问题上,千禧一代可不好过。

That is the story we hear: millennials digging out from record student loan debt – expected to soar above £1tn ($1.27tn) in the UK over the next 25 years alone – and scrambling to pay rent with globally rising living costs and lower wages. And the numbers corroborate the story. Generation-on-generation wealth is declining, and millennials are financially worse off than those before them.

我们所知道的是,千禧一代担负的学生贷款史上最高,预计25年后,单是英国的学生贷款数额就会飙升过1万亿英镑(约1.27万亿美元),而且还要在全球生活成本上涨以及薪资水平下降的情况下应付房租。数据也证明了这一切。跟上一代相比,千禧一代的财富正在减少,财务状况比前辈们差很多。

None of this is exactly surprising, however. We have known for years that the 2008 global financial crisis hit millennials hard, with many graduating directly into a troubled global economy – from which some countries are still struggling to rebound entirely. Slow wage growth, high living costs and a lack of retirement savings mean millennials will be playing catch-up well into retirement.

但这并不奇怪。一直以来我们都知道,2008年的全球金融危机重创了千禧一代,很多人一毕业就陷入了囿于困境的全球经济,一些国家仍然没能全面复苏。面对工资增长缓慢、生活成本高昂、养老储蓄不足等问题,千禧一代可能要一直奋斗到退休。

That’s if they can afford to quit working at all. The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2050, when millennials in the world’s eight largest pension markets start to retire, the retirement savings gap will be $427tn. That’s more than six times the 2015 figure of $67tn. Driving this shortfall are things like longer life expectancy, the deceleration of a long-term growth environment and poor savings rates, coupled with low levels of financial literacy.

不过这还要看他们有没有能力退休。世界经济论坛预测,到2050年,当世界八大养老金市场的千禧一代开始退休时,养老金储备缺口将高达427万亿美元,是2015年67万亿美元缺口的六倍多。个中原因包括预期寿命延长、经济长期增长后步调放缓、储蓄率低,以及金融知识不足。

This doesn’t paint a hopeful picture for the future – but maybe there is a scenario that is not so bleak. Could a windfall from the richest generation – baby boomers – reverse the fortunes for millennials?

未来似乎毫无希望,但也许有种情况没这么惨。婴儿潮一代(生于1946-1964年的人)最富有,他们带来的意外之财能否扭转千禧一代的命运呢?

Shelter from the storm

避风港

Unlike millennials, baby boomers are the wealthiest generation in history – and will remain that way until roughly 2030.

与千禧一代不同,婴儿潮一代是有史以来最富有的,并将持续到2030年前后。

According to a wealth transfer report by the Royal Bank of Canada, when this group passes on their assets to younger family members, analysts expect them to leave $4tn of wealth to millennials within the UK and North America alone. This ‘inheritance boom’ will position millennials who have baby boomers in their families to receive record sums of inheritance.

分析师在加拿大皇家银行的一份财富转让报告中预测,当婴儿潮一代将资产转让给后代时,单是英国和北美的千禧一代就将获得4万亿美元的资产。这种"继承热潮"之下,千禧一代继承婴儿潮一代的资产数额将创下纪录。

Is the solution to millennials’ money woes, then, to wait for the wealthier baby boomer generation to die out and inherit their assets?

那么,千禧一代想要解决财务问题,就要等着富有的婴儿潮一代过世然后继承资产吗?

It’s an argument made by Paul Donovan, UBS Wealth Management’s chief global economist, who earlier this year predicted that millennials will actually become history’s wealthiest generation. Speaking to Business Insider, he argued that wealth doesn’t evaporate from the economy. And, since baby boomers are a larger generation than millennials, wealth will consolidate as it is passed down through the generations. Simply: fewer people, the same amount of wealth distributed among them.

瑞银财富管理公司首席全球经济学家多诺万(Paul Donovan)认为如此,他曾在今年早些时候预测,千禧一代将成为有史以来最富有的一代。他在接受《商业内幕》杂志(Business Insider)采访时说,财富不会在经济中凭空消失,而且婴儿潮一代比千禧一代人口多,财富会在世代传承的过程中整合集中。简而言之,人少了,但被分配的总资产数额不变。

All in the family

要看家人如何处理

It’s not that simple, says Moritz Schularick, professor of economics at the University of Bonn in Germany. He says that the intergenerational wealth transfer model in which millennials become the wealthiest generation on record is a “global top 1% model”.

德国波恩大学的经济学教授施莱利克(Moritz Schularick)表示,情况并非如此简单,通过继承财富让千禧一代变成最富有的人简直是“世界上最好的方法”。

“It applies to people who have so much they can never spend their wealth,” he says. “Normal people – and standard economic models – assume that people save for old age and then use their savings [and] wealth to pay for things when they have no income. At the end of their lives there is some inheritance, but not that much.”

他说:“但这只适用于那些富到钱怎么都花不完的人。一般人在正常的经济中都会存养老金,在没有收入的时候使用养老储蓄(和)其他资产来支付生活所需,最终会留下遗产,但没那么多。”

Lowell R. Ricketts, lead analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Center for Household Financial Stability, agrees. He says that only a minority of baby boomer families will pass on “significant wealth”. (June 2018 figures from the US Federal Reserve confirm this: between 1995 and 2016, only 2% of bequests equaled $1,000,000 or more – yet this money comprised upwards of 40% of wealth transferred.)

联邦储备银行圣路易斯家庭金融稳定中心的首席分析师里基茨(Lowell R. Ricketts)对此也表示赞同。他说,只有少数婴儿潮家庭会留下“一大笔钱”。(2018年6月美国联邦储备的数据也证实了这一点:在1995年至2016年期间,遗产继承中只有2%的案例达到或超过100万美元,而这些钱已经占到了遗产总额的40%以上。)

Although some assets by nature do retain value or even appreciate, Ricketts says, we cannot assume that baby boomers will hold onto assets until bequest. “A home and the property it’s built on may need to be liquidated in retirement to maintain a standard of living. Therefore, even if those assets don’t disappear from the economy, they might not be retained and passed on.”

里基茨表示,虽然一些资产本质上可以保值甚至升值,但我们不能假设婴儿潮一代会将这些资产一直保留到遗产分配的时候。“可能会为了维持生活水平而在退休时将房子和建房土地清算变现。因此,这些资产虽然不会在经济中消失,却也无法保留和传承。”

Tried-and-true plan B

切实有效的备选方案

Even if the transfer of assets occurred and it also significantly impacted millennial wealth, says Ricketts, timing is a crucial factor.

里基茨认为,即使遗产得以继承且对千禧一代的财富有重大影响,时机也是一个关键因素。

In the St. Louis Fed’s Demographics of Wealth summary, researchers write that American wealth accumulation for households headed by someone born in the 1980s are 34% percent below expectations. “These families are approaching important financial milestones (homeownership, raising children, saving for retirement) with diminished wealth accumulation,” says Ricketts. “A windfall in the future won’t help these families meet their current financial obligations. In other words, the promise of a transfer in the future won’t help meet the down payment required for a mortgage.”

在圣路易斯联邦储备银行的人口财富报告中,研究人员表示,在美国,如果生于20世纪80年代的人是家庭的中坚力量,那么这一家所积累的财富比所需要的要少34%。里基茨说:“这些家庭正在走向重要的财务节点(购置房产、抚养孩子、存钱养老),所以财富积累会减少。日后的一笔巨款对解决这些家庭当前的财务问题毫无帮助。换句话说,未来继承的遗产现在没法拿来抵押支付房屋首付。”

If you are among the millennials crossing your fingers for surprise cash infusion, then Donovan’s model likely doesn’t apply to you. Waiting on a windfall can’t be your plan A – and, even then, you might be waiting too long.

如果你是祈祷意外来财的千禧一代,那么多诺万的方法很可能并不适用,可不能把坐等巨款当成首选,即便你愿意等,可能也等不起。

As elder generations continue to struggle with retirement savings and live longer on less, millennials looking to save for retirement might want to keep courting the tried-and-true option: socking away money with lower-volatility vehicles. The silver lining of higher interest rates in the economy is not nearly as thrilling as found wealth, sure. But aren’t millennials used to taking what they can get?

年纪大的人要继续努力攒养老金,财富少了寿命却越来越长,千禧一代要想存钱养老还是选择切实有效的方案比较好——把钱存起来,选择波动较低的投资方式。盼着加息肯定不像有笔横财那么激动人心,但是千禧一代不一直都是有啥全都要吗?

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表