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特朗普有关朝鲜无核化的断言符合事实吗?

更新时间:2018-6-25 20:00:49 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Fact Check: Is There Truth to Trump’s Bold Claims about North Korean Denuclearization?
特朗普有关朝鲜无核化的断言符合事实吗?

SEOUL, South Korea — President Trump said on Thursday that North Korea had already begun to denuclearize, as he continued to trumpet the results of his summit meeting last week with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

韩国首尔——特朗普总统上周四表示,朝鲜已经开始去核,他是在继续宣扬两周前与朝鲜领导人金正恩举行的峰会的结果。

At the June 12 meeting in Singapore, Mr. Kim agreed to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” But the joint statement the two leaders signed lacked details about when North Korea would dismantle its nuclear program and under what terms, or even what specifically was meant by “denuclearization.”

金正恩在6月12日的新加坡峰会上同意“努力实现朝鲜半岛的全面无核化”。但两国领导人签署的联合声明缺乏细节,没有关于朝鲜逐步废除其核项目的时间表、以及在什么条件下才会废除,甚至没有“去核化”的具体含义。

Since then, Mr. Trump has made bold claims about what was achieved in Singapore, asserting that there is “no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea” and that the nuclear crisis is now “largely solved.” Such statements have led to accusations that he is misleading the public. (The North, for instance, has just as many nuclear weapons as it did before the summit talks.)

从那以后,特朗普一直在对新加坡峰会取得的结果做出大胆的断言,他声称“朝鲜不再构成核威胁”,核危机现在“基本上已经解决”。这些声称引来了人们指责他误导公众的说法。(比如,朝鲜现在拥有的核武器数量与峰会前拥有的一样多。)

Here are a few of the assertions Mr. Trump made during a cabinet meeting on Thursday, and a look at how they compare with the facts:

下面是特朗普在周四的一次内阁会议上的一些声称,以及他的说法与事实的比较:

‘They’ve stopped the sending of missiles, including ballistic missiles’

“他们已经停止了导弹发射,包括弹道导弹发射。”

True.

符合事实。

Last November, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that officials said was powerful enough to reach the mainland United States, the latest in a series of missile tests that the North carried out last year. (It also tested a nuclear weapon in September.) Since then, it has not launched any missiles. Its suspension of both nuclear and missile tests eased the way for Mr. Kim’s meeting with South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, in late April and his talks with Mr. Trump.

去年11月,朝鲜发射了一枚洲际弹道导弹,官员们说,那枚导弹有足以飞到美国本土的强大能力,那是朝鲜去年进行的一系列导弹试验中的最后一次。(朝鲜还在去年9月测试了一枚核武器。)自那时起,朝鲜就一直没有发射过任何导弹。朝鲜暂停核试验和导弹试验的做法,为金正恩在4月底与韩国总统文在寅的会晤、以及金正恩与特朗普的会谈铺平了道路。

In April, North Korea said it no longer needed to test nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles because it had finished building its nuclear deterrent. But some Western analysts doubt that the North has truly mastered all the technologies needed to deliver warheads that can survive re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere and hit targets across the Pacific.

朝鲜在今年4月表示,不再需要测试核武器或洲际弹道导弹,因为朝鲜已经完成了核威慑力量的建设。但一些西方分析人士不相信朝鲜真正掌握了运送弹头所需的全部技术,比如在弹头重返地球大气层时不被烧毁、从而能打击太平洋彼岸目标的技术。

‘They’re destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up.’

“他们正在捣毁他们的发动机场地。他们正在将其炸掉。”

Premature.

为时尚早。

Speaking to reporters in Singapore after the summit meeting, Mr. Trump said North Korea had promised to dismantle a facility for testing missile engines. North Korea has yet to confirm that Mr. Kim made such a promise, nor has it announced any plans to destroy such a facility.

峰会后,特朗普在新加坡对记者说,朝鲜已承诺拆除一个用于测试导弹发动机的设施。朝鲜方面尚未证实金正恩做出了这种承诺,也没有宣布任何捣毁此类设施的计划。

Mr. Trump did not say what site he was referring to. Analysts have focused on a facility at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea. In March of last year, North Korea successfully tested a new high-thrust engine there, one that analysts said was later used to power its intercontinental ballistic missiles.

特朗普没有说明他指的是哪个场地。分析人士一直关注的是位于朝鲜西北部东昌里的西海卫星发射场的一个设施。去年3月,朝鲜在那里成功地测试了一台新的高推力发动机。分析人士说,这台发动机后来被用于为朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹提供动力。

Satellite imagery from June 12, the day of the summit meeting, revealed no signs that preparations were underway to dismantle the engine test stand at Tongchang-ri, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert on the North’s missile programs, said in an analysis posted on the website 38 North.

从6月12日峰会当天拍摄的卫星图像来看,没有迹象显示朝鲜正在为拆除东昌里的发动机试验台做准备,研究朝鲜导弹计划的专家小约瑟夫·S·贝穆德斯(Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.)在北纬38度(38 North)网站上发布的一份分析报告中说。

Destroying an engine-testing site would not necessarily mean that North Korea was abandoning its intercontinental ballistic missile program. But it would be taken as a confidence-building step by Washington and its allies as they enter negotiations with North Korea over implementing the summit agreement.

捣毁一个发动机测试基地并不一定意味着朝鲜在放弃其洲际弹道导弹项目。但那在华盛顿及其盟友就落实峰会协议与朝鲜进行谈判的时候,会被视为建立信任的一步。

“While there are other vertical engine test stands in North Korea, the one at Sohae is the most well developed and its destruction would represent a significant symbolic and practical step forward for North Korea,” Mr. Bermudez wrote.

“虽然朝鲜也有其他的垂直发动机测试台,但西海的这个最先进,西海测试台的摧毁将会是朝鲜迈出的具有象征意义的、切实的一步,”贝穆德斯写道。

‘They’ve already blown up one of their big test sites. In fact, it was actually four of their big test sites.

“他们已经炸毁了他们大型试验场地中的一个。实际上,他们炸毁了四个大型试验场地。”

Exaggerated.

有所夸张。

There is no evidence that the North Koreans have blown up “four of their big test sites,” whether nuclear or missile-related.

没有证据表明,朝鲜炸毁了“四个大型试验场地”,无论是用于核试验的还是与导弹有关的。

But in May, with the international news media watching, the North did detonate explosives at the site where it conducted all six of its nuclear tests to date, characterizing it as a dismantling of the facility. Three tunnels were demolished at the site in Punggye-ri, in northeastern North Korea, which is the North’s only known nuclear test site.

但今年5月,在国际新闻媒体到场的情况下,朝鲜在其进行了迄今为止所有六次核试验的地方引爆了炸药,并称拆除了那里的核设施。爆炸摧毁了位于朝鲜东北部丰溪里的三个隧道,丰溪里是朝鲜唯一被外界所知的核试验基地。

However, no experts from the United Nations or any other independent body were present to verify whether the site had been completely destroyed, or whether it could be repaired should North Korea decide to resume testing.

但是,没有来自联合国或任何其他独立机构的专家到场,以对该基地是否已被彻底摧毁进行核实,或对如果朝鲜决定恢复核试验,该基地是否能被修复进行核实。

Reports also emerged early this month that the North had razed a stand that it used to test launching technologies for solid-fuel ballistic missiles. But there are no signs that North Korea has destroyed any other nuclear or missile test facilities.

本月初,有报道称,朝鲜拆除了一个用于测试固体燃料弹道导弹发射技术的发射台。但是,没有迹象表明朝鲜已摧毁了任何其他的核试验或导弹试验设施。

‘It will be a total denuclearization, which is already starting taking place’

“这将是一个全面的去核化,这一进程已经开始了。”

Dubious.

值得怀疑。

If the steps described above are considered part of the denuclearization process, then it can indeed be said to have begun — though all of them took place before the Singapore talks.

如果上面描述的步骤被认为是无核化进程的一部分的话,可以说进程已经开始——不过,所有这些步骤都发生在新加坡峰会之前。

But many analysts say that North Korea cannot be said to have started denuclearizing until it begins actually dismantling its nuclear weapons, which has not happened. Nor has the North started disposing of its fissile materials or the facilities, such as centrifuges and a nuclear reactor, that have been used to produce them. And it has said nothing about when, or whether, it will dismantle the missiles that it says can deliver nuclear warheads.

但是,许多分析人士说,不能说朝鲜已经开始了去核化进程,除非朝鲜开始了销毁自己核武器的实际行动,而这还没有发生。朝鲜也没有开始销毁自己的可裂变材料或用于生产这些材料的离心机和核反应堆等设施。朝鲜也没有说,什么时候、或是否会拆除其称之为能够运载核弹头的导弹。

For his part, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters on Wednesday that he knew of no steps that North Korea had taken toward denuclearization. “I’m not aware of any,” he said. “Obviously, we’re at the very front end of the process. Detailed negotiations have not begun.”

美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)周三对记者说,就他而言,他还没有看到朝鲜在实现无核化上采取了任何步骤。“我对此一无所知,”他说。“显然,我们仍正处在这个过程的最前期。具体的谈判尚未开始。”

‘They’ve already sent back, or are in the process of sending back, the remains of our great heroes who died in North Korea during the war’

“他们已经把我们在朝鲜战争中死去的伟大英雄的遗骸送回来、或正在送回的过程中。”

Premature.

为时尚早。

Between 1996 and 2005, American experts and North Korean workers recovered remains believed to be those of more than 220 American soldiers who were killed during the Korean War, which raged from 1950 to 1953. No remains of American war dead have been sent home from North Korea since then.

1996至2005年间,美国专家和朝鲜工人找到的据认是在1950至1953年的朝鲜战争期间丧生的220多名美国士兵的遗骸。从那以后,就再也没有过把美国战争死者的遗骸从朝鲜运回美国的事情。

Mr. Kim promised at the Singapore summit to do more, committing the North to returning more American remains from major battle sites, “including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.” Given that commitment — one that would cost Pyongyang little to honor — the North may well return more soldiers’ remains soon, but as of Friday it had not done so.

金正恩在新加坡峰会上承诺,将在这方面采取更多的行动,他承诺朝鲜将把在主要战场上找到的更多的美国人遗骸运回国,“包括把已经得到的已确认的遗骸马上运回美国。”考虑到这一承诺几乎不需要朝鲜付出任何代价,朝鲜本可能很快会把更多士兵的遗骸还给美国,但截至周五,朝鲜还没有这么做。

About 5,300 American troops presumed to have been killed in North Korea are still unaccounted for. Even if the North fully cooperates, recovering most of them is likely to take years. Once the remains are gathered, painstaking forensic work must be carried out before they can be positively identified. In the past, some soldiers’ remains sent to the United States from the North were mingled with the bones of unidentified people or even animals.

有约5300名据信是在朝鲜丧生的美国士兵仍下落不明。即使朝鲜完全与美国合作,找到其中的大部分可能需要数年的时间。把这些遗骸收集起来以后,仍需进行细心的法医工作才能确定它们的身份。过去曾发生过从朝鲜运回美国的一些士兵遗骸与不明身份者的、甚至与动物的骨头混杂在一起的情况。

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