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十大要点详解“特金会”:发生了什么,为什么重要

更新时间:2018-6-13 20:22:13 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

What Happened in the Trump-Kim Meeting and Why It Matters
十大要点详解“特金会”:发生了什么,为什么重要

Even the most informed observer might struggle to know what to make of the summit meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

即便是最见多识广的观察人士,可能也难以理解特朗普总统和朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)的这次峰会。

Colorful theatrics, such as a four-minute video that Mr. Trump showed Mr. Kim, gave the event an air of surrealism. Expectations ranged wildly, with Mr. Trump promising the deal of the century and many analysts fearing a blowup similar to what happened at last’s week’s Group of 7 meeting in Canada.

五彩缤纷的表演,比如特朗普给金正恩看的一段时长四分钟的视频,给这场活动增添了一层超现实主义色彩。外界的期望各不相同,特朗普承诺达成世纪协议,很多分析人士担心会像上周在加拿大的七国集团(Group of 7)峰会上一样爆发争吵。

And Mr. Trump’s habit of making misleading statements, along with his record of defying norms, can make it difficult to parse which of the summit’s outcomes matter and which don’t, which bring Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim closer to their respective goals and which move them further away.

特朗普有发表误导性言论的习惯,并且有打破常规的前例。这让外界难以从语言表述上分析会谈结果中哪些重要,哪些不重要,哪些会让特朗普和金正恩离各自的目标更近,哪些让他们离目标更远。

Here, then, is a simple breakdown of 10 major takeaways from the meeting and why they matter.

下面对此次会谈的十大要点,以及它们的重要性进行了简单分析。

What Happened and Didn’t

发生了什么、没发生什么

(1) Almost any talks between the United States and North Korea, while those talks are ongoing, significantly reduce the risk of an accidental or unintended slide into war, which could kill millions. The simple act of talking changes North Korean and American behaviors and perceptions in ways that make conflict far less likely. That’s a big deal.

(1)美国与朝鲜之间的几乎任何会谈,都会大幅降低意外或无意中引爆战争的风险,哪怕这些谈判目前尚在进行中。战争可能会造成成百上千万人丧生。对话这个简单的动作会改变朝鲜和美国的行为与看法,大大降低发生冲突的可能性。这一点非常重要。

(2) The joint statement signed by Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim contains polite diplomatic platitudes but is otherwise largely empty. Among adversaries, this sort of statement is a common, low-pressure way to keep talks going. It doesn’t resolve any issues, but it keeps the countries engaged.

(2)特朗普和金正恩签署的联合声明中有礼节性的外交套话,但除此之外都是空谈。在对手之间,这种声明很常见,是为了让谈判继续下去的一种低压方式。它不解决任何问题,但会让相关国家保持接触。

(3) Later, Mr. Trump made a concession with significance that is real but easy to overstate: The United States will suspend its joint military exercises with South Korea. Mr. Trump was setting a policy that analysts refer to as “freeze for freeze,” in which the United States freezes the exercises and North Korea freezes its weapons tests. It’s meant to reduce tensions and create space for more meaningful concessions. Though not all analysts support such a policy, it is a mainstream idea and hardly radical.

(3)随后,特朗普做出了一个让步:美国将暂停与韩国的联合军演。这个让步的重要意义是实实在在的,但容易被夸大。特朗普制定了一项被分析人士称作“冻结换冻结”的政策,即美国冻结演习,朝鲜冻结武器试验。这是为了缓和紧张关系,为更有意义的让步创造空间。尽管并不是所有分析人士都支持这项政策,但这是一种主流观点,算不上激进。

(4) There is one asterisk to the otherwise modest policy implications. South Korean officials expressed surprise at Mr. Trump’s promise to suspend joint military exercises, suggesting that Mr. Trump may have made the concession on South Korea’s behalf without their consent or advance knowledge. The South Korean leadership will probably swallow their pride and accept it, but Mr. Trump’s public breach of the alliance sends the message that South Koreans cannot always count on the United States. It also offers North Korea the tantalizing prospect of widening any divide between Washington and Seoul.

(4)这项政策的影响本来不大,但现在要加个注解。韩国官员对特朗普承诺暂停联合军演表示惊讶,这表明特朗普可能未得到韩国的同意或提前告知,就代表韩国做出了这个让步。韩国领导人可能会放下面子接受这个决定,但特朗普公开背弃美韩同盟的做法传递出了一个信息:韩国不能总是指望美国。此事也给朝鲜提供了一个扩大华盛顿与首尔之间的一切分歧的诱人前景。

The Theater That Mattered

一个重要场合

(5) The United States staged the summit meeting in a way that handed Mr. Kim some symbolic but meaningful concessions. At the North Koreans’ request, the two countries and their leaders were presented as equals — elevating Mr. Kim from global pariah to a superpower’s peer. Their meeting was given pomp and ceremony at points verging on that of a royal wedding. Because Mr. Kim’s legitimacy is among his greatest vulnerabilities at home and abroad, this staging was a big gift to him.

(5)美国对此次会谈的安排,让金正恩得到了一些象征性的,但也颇有意义的让步。应朝鲜的要求,两国及其领导人被描述成平等的对话主体,金正恩从被国际社会唾弃,跃升为与超级大国地位相当。此次会谈的隆重程度和礼节有时接近皇室婚礼。因为合法性是金正恩在国内外最大的软肋之一,这种安排对他来说是一份大礼。

(6) It costs the United States little to make those concessions. Still, they can be given away only once, and the United States received relatively little from North Korea in return. Analysts broadly consider this a lost opportunity to extract more meaningful concessions from North Korea, such as partial disarmament or intrusive nuclear inspections.

(6)美国做出这些让步的代价很小。但这种情况可能只会发生一次,美国从朝鲜得到的回报相对较少。分析人士普遍认为,美国失去了这次让朝鲜做出更有意义的让步的机会,比如部分裁军或侵入式核检查。

(7) The meeting sends important messages to other adversarial states. Mr. Kim appears to have forced Mr. Trump to the table by developing nuclear weapons and missiles that can reach the United States. But Mr. Kim’s human rights record, considered among the world’s worst, did not appear to be an issue. Mr. Trump even suggested that North Korea could become a major tourist destination, almost exactly one year after an American tourist, Otto Warmbier, died of what appeared to be torture endured while in North Korean custody.

(7)此次会谈给其他敌对国家发出了重要的信号。金正恩似乎通过发展能够抵达美国的核武器和导弹,迫使特朗普坐到了谈判桌前。但金正恩的人权纪录——被认为是全世界最恶劣的——似乎并不是问题。特朗普甚至暗示朝鲜可能会成为一个热门的旅游目的地。而几乎就在一年前,美国游客奥托·瓦姆比尔(Otto Warmbier)去世,死因似乎是在被朝鲜关押期间受到严刑拷打。

The Bigger Picture

更大的图景

(8) If the point of the meeting was to bring the world demonstrably closer to resolving the North Korea crisis, then that didn’t happen. North Korea took no steps, even rhetorical, toward disarming. The United States also made no concrete, long-term changes; the freeze on exercises can be easily reversed. The meeting fell far short of Mr. Trump’s lofty promises of North Korean denuclearization. But it also averted analysts’ fears that Mr. Trump might make an outright withdrawal of American troops from South Korea or blow up at Mr. Kim.

(8)如果这次会谈的重点是明显缩短世界与解决朝鲜危机之间的距离,那么这一幕并没有发生。朝鲜没有采取裁军措施,甚至没有发表相关言论。美国也没有做出具体的长期改变。冻结演习的决定轻而易举就能推翻。会谈远没有兑现特朗普所说的朝鲜无核化的宏伟承诺。但也没有发生分析人士所担心的特朗普可能会彻底从韩国撤军,或炮轰金正恩的一幕。

(9) Mr. Trump’s foreign policy actions elsewhere may limit what he can accomplish with North Korea. By tearing up the Iran nuclear deal despite sustained indication of Iranian compliance, and by reneging on agreements even with long-term allies, the United States has deepened suspicion that it cannot be trusted to make arms-control agreements. So don’t expect talks to produce much of verifiable substance.

(9)特朗普在其他地方的外交政策行动可能会制约他在朝鲜问题上的成果。尽管有持续的迹象表明伊朗遵守了协议,但美国仍将其撕毁。美国甚至还违反了与长期以来的盟友达成的协议。这些做法加深了外界对美国的怀疑,担心无法相信美国会达成军控协议。因此,不要指望谈判能产生很多可验证的实质性结果。

(10) Still, it’s worth reiterating that first point: Almost any talks, even if they elevate Mr. Kim and grant him concessions for little return, significantly reduce the risk of war. The effect applies only as long as talks continue, so is almost certainly temporary. But as Mr. Trump said in the joint news conference on Tuesday: “If I have to say I’m sitting on a stage with Chairman Kim and that’s going to get us to save 30 million lives, maybe more than that, I’m willing to sit on the stage. I’m willing to travel to Singapore very gladly.”

(10)但有必要重申第一点:几乎所有谈判都会明显降低战争的风险,即使它们抬高了金正恩的地位,并让他几乎没给出什么回报就得到了让步。这种效果只适用于谈判继续进行的条件下,因此几乎可以肯定地说是暂时的。但正如特朗普周二在联合新闻发布会上所说的:“如果我必须说自己和金委员长一起坐在台上,而这会让我们挽救3000万甚至更多人的生命,我愿意坐在台上。我非常愿意来新加坡。”

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