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特朗普是如何被朝鲜打败的

更新时间:2018-5-27 12:08:15 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How Trump Got Outplayed on North Korea
特朗普是如何被朝鲜打败的

Thursday morning’s letter from President Trump to Kim Jong-un, apparently ending their nuclear negotiation bromance, should come as no surprise. But by once again catching American allies off guard and publicly antagonizing North Korea, the administration has further undermined its own leverage.

特朗普总统周四上午写给金正恩的信,并不令人意外似乎终止了他们的核谈判兄弟情。外界对此不应感到意外。但特朗普政府再次令美国的盟友措手不及的做法,进一步削弱了自己的影响力。

Over the past year, the president has repeatedly underestimated the importance of making real trade-offs in diplomacy. These choices appear to be anathema to his “go big or go home” style of deal-making. The Trump administration has been eager to jettison the “weak,” “terrible” deals negotiated by previous presidents — including the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Paris climate agreement, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. With North Korea, he was seeking something bigger and better, “a very special moment for World Peace.”

在过去一年里,总统屡屡低估在外交上做出真正妥协的重要性。这样的选择似乎与他“要么做笔大的,要么回家”的交易风格不符。特朗普政府急不可耐地想要废弃前几任总统通过谈判达成的“软弱”、“糟糕”的协议,包括《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)、巴黎气候协议,以及同伊朗达成的《联合全面行动计划》(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran)。在朝鲜问题上,他在争取更大、更优秀的成果,“一个对世界和平而言非常特殊的时刻。”

Instead, the United States may now walk away with nothing.

但现在,美国可能会两手空空地离开。

While it’s true that deals like the Iran nuclear agreement had inherent shortcomings, they also effectively advanced America’s national security. In fact, their limitations reflect a hard-nosed assessment of the risk of the alternatives, the broader geostrategic interests in play and the constraints on America’s leverage. In diplomacy, every deal is an imperfect deal. The question is, how imperfect? And at what cost? Unless you can produce a better alternative, tossing out a less-than-perfect agreement that does advance some concrete goals is an exercise in peril. “Repeal” is almost always simpler than “replace.”

尽管像伊朗核协议这样的协议的确存在固有的缺点,但它们也有效地增进了美国的国家安全。实际上,它们的局限性反映了替代方案的风险、产生影响的整体地缘战略利益,以及美国影响力所受限制的冷静评估。在外交上,所有协议都是不完美的。问题在于有多不完美?代价是什么?除非你能拿出一个更好的选择,否则放弃一份不太完美,但确实能推进一些具体目标的协议是一种危险的行为。“废弃”几乎永远比“替换”简单。

There may still be time to avoid the all-or-nothing trap with North Korea. While it will not be easy to overcome the fallout of provoking a thin-skinned dictator, the United States might now have a chance to focus on a more credible strategy: a deal that constrains, even if it does not immediately eliminate, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs without offering unacceptable concessions in return. Whether such a deal is possible depends on Mr. Trump’s ability to embrace the art of the imperfect deal.

在朝鲜问题上,兴许还有时间避开“要么一切,要么全无”的陷阱。尽管激怒一个脸皮薄的独裁者可能不太好办,但美国现在可能有了机会,把重点放在另一种更可靠的策略上:达成一项即使不能立即消除,也能限制朝鲜核武器和导弹计划的协议,并且无需做出难以接受的让步。是否能达成这样一项交易,取决于特朗普是否能接受达成不完美协议的艺术。

Developing a stronger negotiating strategy requires acknowledging the obvious: The United States has less leverage than it thinks in this negotiation. Over the last few months, the Trump administration has repeatedly insisted that near-term denuclearization is achievable. This assessment flies in the face of North Korea’s pointed recent statements and long history to the contrary, and it contradicts a new Pentagon report that suggests Mr. Kim views nuclear weapons as essential. No amount of wishful thinking, or even the possibility of reduced American sanctions, will change this reality.

制定更有效的谈判策略就需要承认一个显而易见的事实:美国在这场谈判中的影响力比它以为的要小。过去几个月里,特朗普政府一再坚称近期无核化是可以实现的。在朝鲜最近的言论和违反承诺的累累前科面前,这个评估完全站不住脚。它和五角大楼新发布的一份报告也不符。该报告称金正恩认为核武器至关重要。再怎么一厢情愿,甚至是减少美国制裁,都不会改变这个事实。

The Trump administration will also need to address the divisions among its partners in the region, where Mr. Trump’s inconsistency has weakened his hand in negotiations and allowed our Asian partners to more skillfully maneuver toward their own goals.

特朗普政府还需要解决它在该地区的合作伙伴之间的分歧。在该地区,特朗普的前后矛盾削弱了他在谈判中的影响力,并让我们在亚洲的合作伙伴得以更巧妙地朝它们自己的目标努力。

President Moon Jae-in of South Korea has repeatedly leveraged the art of flattery with Mr. Trump to ensure that South Korea’s vision of a sweeping peace deal remained on the table. Mr. Moon is likely to keep pursuing some kind of diplomatic play with or without Mr. Trump’s involvement.

韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae -in)多次对特朗普使用奉承的技巧,为的是确保韩国设想的全面和平协议仍在计划中。不管有没有特朗普的参与,文在寅都可能继续采用某种外交表演。

Not to be outdone, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has visited Mr. Trump several times to ensure that the United States does not cut a narrow deal that puts Japan’s security at risk.

为了不被击败,日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)多次会见特朗普,以确保美国不会达成一项将日本置于危险境地的狭隘协议。

These divergent interests won’t be readily reconciled. Instead of ignoring these differences, the administration needs to find some common ground for a more unified negotiation. Otherwise, the other power centers in Asia may pursue side deals with North Korea that will be even worse for the United States.

这些不同的利益不容易调解。特朗普政府不应该无视这些分歧,而是需要找到共同利益,以便进行更一致的谈判。否则,亚洲的其他权力中心可能会与朝鲜单独达成协议,那将更不利于美国。

Finally, a more viable strategy requires a clearer analysis of how important North Korea really is to American interests, and what the United States is willing to put on the table. Is the top priority dealing with the threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or reducing North Korea’s nuclear stockpile? Where is the United States willing to accept calculated risks? The Trump administration must answer these questions to ensure that the United States doesn’t give up too much — like suddenly reducing its military presence in Asia or weakening its alliances — without getting anything substantive in return from North Korea.

最后,要想设计一个更可行的战略,需要更清晰地分析朝鲜对美国的利益到底有多重要,以及美国愿意做出哪些让步。首要目标是解除洲际弹道导弹的威胁,还是减少朝鲜的核储备?美国愿意接受多大的风险?特朗普政府必须回答这些问题,以确保美国不会放弃得太多——比如突然减少它在亚洲的军事存在或削弱它的盟友——而没有从朝鲜获得任何实质性回报。

If the past six weeks of diplomatic speed-dating over North Korea have made one thing clear, it’s that all the other people at this dance have a clear strategy and are playing their limited hands to full effect. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has attitude, swagger, and now a breakup letter for the ages. What it doesn’t yet have is a viable strategy. Hopefully, Mr. Trump will seize this chance to find one.

如果过去六周与朝鲜在外交上的快速接触让人看清了一件事,那就是,这场游戏中的所有其他人都有一个明确的策略,而且把自己有限的手段发挥到了极致。而特朗普政府表现出来的只有姿态、趾高气扬,以及一封史无前例的分手信。它缺乏一个可行的策略。希望特朗普能抓住这个机会找到它。

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