您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

如果朝鲜不弃核,“特金会”能取得什么成果?

更新时间:2018-5-24 19:56:21 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Can Trump Still Claim Victory if Kim Jong-un Keeps His Nuclear Arms?
如果朝鲜不弃核,“特金会”能取得什么成果?

TOKYO — From the moment President Trump accepted an audacious invitation to meet Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, he raised expectations that he would finally do what none of his predecessors had: get North Korea to abandon its nuclear arsenal.

东京——从特朗普总统接受与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)会面的大胆邀请后,外界一直期待他能最终做到前任都没能做到的事:让朝鲜放弃核武库。

Yet, as a warning last week from the North made clear — and as most experts on the country have long declared — Mr. Kim may have no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons any time soon, if ever.

然而,上周朝鲜的一则警告明确表明——而且就像朝鲜专家一直以来强调的那样——金正恩无意在近期内放弃核武器,可能永远都不会。

Now the question is how Mr. Trump will redefine success, if the summit meeting actually takes place as planned.

如今问题在于,如果峰会确实按计划举行,特朗普将如何重新定义成功。

If Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim do sit down in a room in Singapore on June 12, it is clear that denuclearization is all but off the table in the short term. But analysts suggested Mr. Trump would have no trouble finding other ways to claim victory.

如果特朗普和金正恩确实在6月12日坐在新加坡的一间屋子里,显然他们几乎不会讨论无核化。但分析人士表示,特朗普依然可以轻易找到宣布获胜的办法。

“The reality is that the summit will be a success because Trump will package, sell, and call it a success to his supporters,” said Duyeon Kim, a visiting senior fellow at the Korean Peninsula Future Forum in Seoul, the South Korean capital. “It unfortunately won’t matter what the experts think.”

“现实是,峰会将是一项成功,那是因为特朗普会将其包装、推销,并且对其支持者称那是一次成功,”首尔朝鲜半岛未来论坛的高级访问学者金杜妍(Duyeon Kim,音)说。“很遗憾,专家怎么想并不重要。”

In a sign that plans were still moving forward, the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, arrived in Washington for a meeting with Mr. Trump on Tuesday to discuss details of the coming talks.

韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)抵达华盛顿,并于周二与特朗普举行了会晤,商讨即将到来的会面的细节,这表明计划仍在向前推进。

Experts — many of whom have sharply criticized Mr. Trump’s improvisational approach to diplomacy and apparent lack of knowledge about the history of prior, failed deals with North Korea — said one realistic outcome could be a simple declaration stating that denuclearization is an eventual goal.

专家们——其中许多人尖锐批评过特朗普随性的外交,以及对历史上与朝鲜交涉的失败似乎缺乏了解。他们表示一个现实的结果可能是一个简单的公告,声明无核化将是最终目标。

With the memory of North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests and Mr. Trump’s “fire and fury” rhetoric still fresh in most minds, analysts said even a vague deal could be more desirable than a return to the rising tensions of last year.

大多数人仍清楚地记得朝鲜的导弹与核试验,以及特朗普的“炮火与怒火”言论,分析人士表示即使是一个模糊的协议,也可能比回到去年不断恶化的紧张局势要理想得多。

Coupled with a North Korean agreement to extend its moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests, and a promise not to export nuclear arms, analysts said such a deal would be an important starting point for future negotiations.

加上一项朝鲜宣布暂停核弹及远程导弹试验的协议,以及不出口核武器的承诺,分析人士表示,这样的一项协议对未来谈判来说将是一个重要开端。

“That’s not what the president is promising or what everybody is hoping for, but it would be really good and they should take it,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a Korea expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “You’re not getting rid of the weapons, but putting yourself on the path where someday they might not be needed. Maybe not in Kim Jong-un’s lifetime, but it is still worth making that progress, especially because 2017 was really scary.”

“那不是总统承诺或每个人都希望发生的,但也很不错,他们应当接受,”明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院朝鲜问题专家杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)说。“核武器是不可能清除的,但可以让自己走上一条道路,其终点是有朝一日可能不再需要核武器。那可能不会在金正恩有生之年实现,但取得这样的进展仍然是有意义的,尤其考虑到2017年的恐怖。”

Mr. Trump’s desire for a quick, tweetable triumph could leave room for professional diplomats and nuclear experts to hammer out a longer-term agreement with North Korean officials, some analysts say.

一些分析人士说,特朗普渴望获得一场快速的、能用来发推的胜利,这一点可能会给专业外交官及核专家带来运作空间,让他们斟酌出一个与朝鲜官员的长期协议。

“He will come out and say ‘where is my peace prize?’ ” said Suzanne DiMaggio, a director and senior fellow at the New America research group who has been involved in unofficial talks with North Korea. “He really just wants to emerge from the summit as saying ‘I got them to do what no other president could,’ and I think then he will probably lose interest.”

“他会出来说‘我的和平奖在哪呢?’”新美国研究机构主管、资深研究员苏珊娜·迪马吉奥(Suzanne DiMaggio)说,这家机构参与过与朝鲜的非正式谈判。“他真的只想从峰会里出来说,‘我让他们做到了其他总统没能做成的事’,我认为之后他可能就会失去兴趣了。”

“The less President Trump is involved in that process,” Ms. DiMaggio said, “the better.”

“特朗普对该过程的参与,越少越好,”迪马吉奥说。

A vague promise to denuclearize would probably disappoint many in Washington, where there are memories of the North Koreans reneging on deals before. It would also fall far short of the demands of hawks like John R. Bolton, President Trump’s national security adviser, who has called for total and immediate denuclearization. And having recently pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord because it was a “horrible one-sided deal,” Mr. Trump has set expectations that he could get a better agreement from North Korea.

无核化的模糊承诺或许会令华盛顿许多人感到失望,那里的人们还有着朝鲜毁约的记忆。这个国家也根本不能满足鹰派人士的要求,比如特朗普的国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿(John R. Bolton)就曾提过彻底的、直接的无核化。最近,特朗普又以这是一个“糟糕的单方协议”为由退出了伊朗核协议,令人们期待他能从朝鲜那里得到更好的协议。

Some analysts said North Korea was also unlikely to be satisfied by vague proclamations. Mr. Kim is likely to demand a clear guarantee that the United States would never attack, as well as quick relief from international sanctions.

一些分析人士表示,朝鲜也不太可能满足于模糊的宣言。金正恩可能会需要美国明确保证永远不会发动攻击,并且迅速解除国际制裁。

Mr. Trump has praised those sanctions for bringing Mr. Kim to the table in the first place.

特朗普曾赞扬这些制裁能把金正恩首先带到谈判桌上。

Given the North’s negative reaction last week to South Korea’s joint military exercises with the United States, Mr. Kim may also use the talks with Mr. Trump to call for scaling back the number of American troops in South Korea. It would be a mistake to concede that right away, analysts said.

鉴于朝鲜上周对美韩联合军演的消极回应,金正恩或许还会利用与特朗普的谈判来要求缩减驻韩美军规模。分析人士称,立刻做出这一让步将是一个错误。

“If Trump puts significant sanctions relief or a rollback of U.S. military forces in the region on the table too soon, he may not have enough leverage to incentivize North Korea to take steps down the road to continue dismantling its nuclear program,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.

“如果特朗普过快地在谈判桌上答应大幅削减制裁,或撤出美国在该地区的军队,他或许就不会有足够的影响力来刺激朝鲜采取下一步的措施,继续废除其核计划,”华盛顿美国军控协会(Arms Control Association)防扩散政策主任凯尔西·达文波特(Kelsey Davenport)说。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表