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特朗普对“特金会”疑虑渐深

更新时间:2018-5-22 19:58:05 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump Grappling With Risks of Proceeding With North Korea Meeting
特朗普对“特金会”疑虑渐深

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump, increasingly concerned that his summit meeting in Singapore next month with North Korea’s leader could turn into a political embarrassment, has begun pressing his aides and allies about whether he should take the risk of proceeding with a historic meeting that he had leapt into accepting, according to administration and foreign officials.

华盛顿——据政府部门和外国官员称,唐纳德·特朗普总统已开始逼问助手和盟友是否应该冒险继续推进自己草率同意的历史性会晤。他越来越担心,下个月将在新加坡举行的与朝鲜领导人的会晤可能会导致政治尴尬。

Trump was both surprised and angered by a statement issued Wednesday by the North’s chief nuclear negotiator, who declared that the country would never trade away its nuclear weapons capability in exchange for economic aid, administration officials said. The statement, while a highly familiar tactic by the North, represented a jarring shift in tone after weeks of conciliatory gestures.

朝鲜首席核谈判代表于周三发表声明,宣布该国绝不会弃核换取经济援助。政府官员称,特朗普对此既震惊又恼怒。该声明是朝鲜的一种惯常手段,表明朝鲜的口吻在数周和解姿态后出现了不和谐的转变。

On Thursday and Friday, Trump peppered aides with questions about the wisdom of proceeding, and on Saturday night he called President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to ask why the North’s public statement seemed to contradict the private assurances that Moon had conveyed after he met Kim Jong Un, the 35-year-old dictator of the North, at the Demilitarized Zone in late April.

周四和周五两天,特朗普都在不断地向助手询问下一步的明智之举。周六晚上,他致电韩国总统文在寅,询问为何朝鲜的公开声明与文在寅4月末在非军事区与朝鲜35岁的独裁者金正恩进行会晤后向他传达的私下承诺似乎存在矛盾。

The president’s conversation with Moon, which was first reported by The Washington Post, came just three days before the South Korean leader was scheduled to arrive in Washington to meet with Trump on Tuesday. It was a sign of Trump’s discomfort, some officials speculated, that he could not wait to discuss the issue until Moon arrived for his meetings here, though there is no indication that the president is considering pulling out of the North Korea talks.

总统与文在寅的谈话最先由《华盛顿邮报》(The Washington Post)报道。本次谈话发生于韩国领导人计划于周二前往华盛顿与特朗普进行会晤的三天之前。一些官员猜测,这是特朗普不安的表现,他不愿等到文在寅前来会晤才讨论这个问题,不过也没有迹象表明总统正在考虑退出与朝鲜的会谈。

Trump’s aides have grown concerned that the president — who has said that “everyone thinks” he deserves a Nobel Prize for his efforts — has signaled that he wants the summit meeting too much. The aides also worry that Kim, sensing the president’s eagerness, is prepared to offer assurances that will fade over time.

特朗普的助手越来越担心,这位曾说过“每个人都认为”他的努力配得上一个诺贝尔奖的总统表现得太过于渴望这次会晤了。助手们还担心,金正恩察觉到了总统的急切心情,准备提供无法持久的保证。

Moreover, Trump’s decision this month to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal raises the stakes for the North Korea negotiation. If he emerges with anything less than what President Barack Obama got, which in Iran included the verified shipment of 97 percent of all nuclear material out of the country, it will be hard for Trump to convince anyone other than his base that the negotiation was a success.

此外,特朗普本月决定从2015年伊朗核协议中退出,抬高了朝鲜会谈的风险。如果他不能带着和贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统一样多的东西——在伊朗谈判中要求全部核材料的97%通过可核查货运运出该国——离开会谈,那么对特朗普来说,他将很难说服除了自己的基本盘以外的其他人相信这次谈判是一次胜利。

The aides are also concerned about what kind of grasp Trump has on the details of the North Korea program, and what he must insist upon as the key components of denuclearization. Moon and his aides reported that Kim seemed highly conversant with all elements of the program when the two men met, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made similar comments about Kim, based on his two meetings with him in Pyongyang, the North’s capital.

助手们还担心,特朗普对朝鲜核计划的细节有怎样的把握,以及他必须坚持将什么作为无核化的关键部分。文在寅和他的助手们报告称,从金正恩与文在寅的会晤可以看出,金似乎对核计划的所有元素非常熟悉,美国国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)基于自己与金正恩在朝鲜首都平壤的两次会晤也对金做出了类似的评价。

But aides who have recently left the administration say Trump has resisted the kind of detailed briefings about enrichment capabilities, plutonium reprocessing, nuclear weapons production and missile programs that Obama and President George W. Bush regularly sat through.

但最近从特朗普政府辞职的助手们表示,特朗普拒绝听取关于铀浓缩能力、钚再加工、核武器生产和导弹计划的详细情况介绍。而奥巴马和乔治·W·布什总统(George W. Bush)通常都会耐心听完。

Grappling with North Korea in negotiations is a new experience not just for Trump, but also for everyone else in the upper ranks of his administration. South Korean officials say that John R. Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, has been in near daily contact with his counterpart in Seoul, trying to work out a strategy.

在谈判中与朝鲜较量不仅对特朗普来说是前所未有的经历,对他的政府的上层人士来说也是如此。韩国官员表示,特朗普的新任国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿(John R. Bolton)几乎每天都与首尔的国家安全顾问交流,试图制定出一个策略。

Bolton has been clear that in his view the president should use the Singapore meeting to declare that the North must give up its entire arsenal and nuclear infrastructure before crippling economic sanctions are eased.

博尔顿已明确表示,在他看来,总统应该利用新加坡会晤宣布,在致命的经济制裁放松之前,朝鲜必须放弃它的全部军火库和核基础设施。

The South has been advocating a more traditional confidence-building approach, in which concessions by the North result in a gradual lifting of sanctions. But Trump has said he will not repeat that technique, because it led to failure by his four immediate predecessors.

韩国一直主张采取更传统的建立信任的方式,那就是,对朝鲜的让步给予制裁的逐步取消。但特朗普已表示,他不会重复那种做法,因为他的四位前任就是因为这种做法而失败的。

Until now, administration officials have been saying they expect Kim to agree to denuclearization at the Singapore summit meeting and to set a schedule for a fast down payment over the next six months, which would involve turning over some number of nuclear weapons, closing production facilities and allowing inspectors to range the country.

直到现在,特朗普政府的官员们一直表示,他们期望金正恩在新加坡峰会上同意无核化,制订一个在接下来的六个月里快速实现初步承诺的计划,它将包括交出一定数量的核武器,关闭生产设施,允许检查人员巡视朝鲜。

Those who have dealt with North Korea most intensively say that expectation will have to be scaled back if Trump expects success.

最近与朝鲜接触最频繁的人士表示,如果特朗普希望取得成功,那么就必须降低期望。

“If Trump is truly expecting to see a handover of nuclear weapons in six months, without anything in return, that is very unrealistic,” said Joseph Yun, the State Department’s North Korea coordinator until he retired a few months ago. He predicted that Trump would be forced into the kind of step-by-step measures that his predecessors attempted, “because there is no other way.”

“如果特朗普真的希望在六个月内看到朝鲜在没有得到任何回报的情况下交出核武器,那会是非常不现实的,”数月前辞职的美国国务院朝鲜事务协调员尹汝尚(Joseph Yun)表示。据他预测,特朗普将被迫采取他的前任们尝试过的那种循序渐进的措施,“因为没有别的办法。”

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