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朝韩历史性峰会:金正恩踏上韩国控制领土

更新时间:2018-4-27 20:24:56 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Kim Jong-un Crosses Into Demilitarized Zone for Historic Korea Talks
朝韩历史性峰会:金正恩踏上韩国控制领土

SEOUL, South Korea — Kim Jong Un on Friday became the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korean-controlled territory, starting a historic summit meeting with the South’s president that will test Kim’s willingness to bargain away his nuclear weapons.

韩国首尔——周五,金正恩(Kim Jong-un)开启了与韩国总统的历史性峰会,成为首位踏足韩国控制领土的朝鲜领导人。这次峰会将考验金正恩用手中的核武器做交易的意愿。

Kim’s decision to cross into the world’s most heavily armed border zones, a prospect that seemed unthinkable just a few months ago, was broadcast live in South Korea, where all eyes and ears are focused on the intentions of the North’s 34-year-old leader.

金正恩进入世界上戒备最为森严的边界区的决定,在几个月前似乎还难以想像,韩国对此做了现场直播,所有焦点都聚焦在这位34岁朝鲜领导人的意图上。

For South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, who has placed himself at the center of diplomacy to end the nuclear standoff with the North, the meeting presents a formidable task: finding a middle ground between a cunning enemy to the North and an impulsive ally in the United States.

对于已经将自己置于终结与朝鲜核对峙外交中心位置的韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)来说,这次会晤有一个艰巨的任务:在狡猾敌人朝鲜和冲动盟友美国之间找到一个中间立场。

The historic encounter at the Peace House, a conference building on the South Korean side of the border village of Panmunjom, could set the tone for an even more critical meeting planned between Kim and President Donald Trump.

这个位于韩国一侧板门店边境村和平之家(Peace House)的历史性会面,可能会为已经计划好的金正恩与特朗普之间更加重要的会面定下基调。

On Friday morning, Kim emerged from Panmungak, a North Korean administrative building inside Panmumjom. He walked down the steps toward the border line, where Moon was waiting. The two Korean leaders smiled and shook hands across a low, 20-inch-wide concrete slab that marks the border bisecting Panmunjom.

周五早间,金正恩从板门店朝鲜一侧的行政大楼板门阁(Panmungak)走出。他走下台阶,步向边界线,文在寅正在那里等候。朝韩两位领导人均面带微笑,隔着低矮的、20英寸(约合50厘米)宽的混凝土板相互握手。这个混凝土板所在的边界线将板门店一分为二。

Then, Mr. Kim stepped across the border.

然后,金正恩跨过了边界。

After the two leaders posed for photos, they crossed briefly into the North’s territory. They then stepped backed into South Korean territory, holding hands. They walked down a red carpet, inspected a South Korean military honor guard and entered the Peace House.

在两位领导人摆好姿势拍完照后,双方短暂地跨入了朝鲜的领土。然后两人又牵着手退后,回到韩国领土。他们走了红毯、检阅了韩国军事仪仗队,然后进入和平之家。

 “I came here to put an end to the history of confrontation,” Mr. Kim was quoted as saying during the meeting, according to Mr. Moon’s spokesman, Yoon Young-chan. Mr. Moon suggested they hold more meetings, and Mr. Kim said he would visit South Korea’s presidential Blue House “if the president invites me.”

“我来到这里,是为了结束这段对抗的历史,”文在寅发言人尹永灿(Yoon Young-chan,音)引述金正恩在会面时的话说。文在寅提议两人举行更多会晤,金正恩表示“如果总统邀请我”,将访问韩国总统府青瓦台。

While Moon’s meeting with Kim on Friday — their first face-to-face talk — is rich with symbolism, Kim is not expected to capitulate on Trump’s key demand: total and immediate nuclear disarmament.

尽管周五与文在寅的会面富有象征意义——这也是两人的首次面对面会谈,但外界预计金正恩不会屈服于特朗普的关键要求:立即进行彻底的核裁军。

Moon’s other challenge, with Trump, turns on how best to deal with North Korea and its leader — who is expected to meet with Trump in the next few months.

文在寅的另一个挑战和特朗普有关,涉及将如何最好地和朝鲜及其领导人打交道。金正恩预计会在接下来的几个月里同特朗普会面。

The South Korean president favors an action-for-action strategy in which the North takes steps to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and is rewarded for each move with economic benefits and security guarantees. South Korean officials said that the entire process could take about two years.

文在寅支持采取行动换行动的策略。按照这种策略,朝鲜采取措施废除核武库,每一项举措都会得到经济上的好处和安全上的保证作为奖励。韩国官方称,整个过程大约需要两年时间。

Trump’s national security team, by contrast, has insisted that North Korea must scrap its weapons programs before any relief from the sanctions that isolate the nation can be granted. And they say that “substantial dismantlement” should be completed much more quickly, perhaps in six months.

相比之下,特朗普的国家安全团队坚持认为朝鲜必须先废除核计划,才能获准减轻导致其遭到孤立的制裁。他们还说,“实质性拆除”应该在更短的时间内完成,也许是六个月。

Moon sees himself less as a negotiator with Kim and more as a mediator shuttling between two men who believe that keeping others guessing gives them an edge: a volatile U.S. president with no experience in nuclear negotiations, and a hotheaded young North Korean leader with no experience on a global stage.

文在寅更多地认为自己是穿梭于美国总统和朝鲜领导人之间的调解人,而不是与金正恩谈判的代表。美国总统变化无常,没有核谈判经验,年纪尚轻的朝鲜领导人则容易激动,没有全球舞台上的经验。两人都认为让别人猜测会让自己占据优势。

“What we can do is to try to help the North and the United States reach an agreement, helping them narrow their differences and seeking and presenting practical ideas both sides can accept,” Moon said recently, adding that he may have only one shot to get it right. “This is an opportunity that will not come again.”

“我们能做的是努力帮助朝鲜和美国达成协议,帮助他们缩小分歧,寻找和提出双方都能接受的实际意见,”文在寅最近说,并接着表示他可能只有一次机会。“这是一个不会再有的机会。”

The challenge is stark. No nation that has openly tested a nuclear device has ever surrendered its arsenal, and North Korea has conducted six underground explosions, each more powerful than the last, and has test-fired missiles that can reach the mainland United States.

这项挑战颇为严峻。没有哪个公开试验核装置的国家放弃自己的核武库,并且朝鲜已经进行了六次地下爆炸,一次比一次的威力大,还试射了能够抵达美国本土的导弹。

But Trump and Kim have both already defied conventional wisdom about what is possible. If they meet in June — most likely in Singapore, according to U.S. and South Korean officials — it would be the first direct encounter between the leaders of the two nations, as well as a chance to test the argument that making progress with North Korea in the nuclear standoff requires starting at the top.

但特朗普和金正恩都打破了有关可能性的传统观念。如果在6月会面——据美国和韩国官员称,地点极有可能是新加坡——这将是两国领导人首次直接接触,也是考验一个观点的机会。这个观点认为,在核僵持中同朝鲜取得进展要从上层开始。

The meeting between Kim and Moon is the third summit meeting between leaders of the two countries, but the first in which denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula tops the agenda.

金正恩与文在寅的会晤是两国领导人之间的第三次会面,但以朝鲜半岛无核化为首要议题,这是第一次。

Moon hopes to emerge from Friday’s summit meeting with a formal but vague denuclearization commitment from Kim and perhaps a path to negotiating a peace treaty or a plan to reduce military tensions. Some have suggested a pullback of troops from the Demilitarized Zone between the North and South is possible.

文在寅希望在周五的会谈中得到金正恩正式但模糊的无核化承诺,或许还有通过谈判达成和平协定或缓和军事紧张局势方案的途径。一些人士表示,部队可能会从朝韩之间的非军事区撤军。

“I find it impossible to believe that Kim is prepared to give up what his father and his grandfather bequeathed to him,” said Gary Samore, a veteran of negotiations with North Korea as the top arms control aide in the Clinton and Obama administrations, speaking at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

 “我很难相信金正恩准备放弃他父亲和祖父留给他的东西,”加里·萨莫尔(Gary Samore)在首尔的峨山政策研究院(Asan Institute for Policy Studies)说。他是对朝谈判方面的老手,曾在克林顿和奥巴马政府任最高军控助手。

But he added that Kim “may now calculate he has enough of a nuclear arsenal” — and so can afford to put more on the table than in the past.

但他补充,金正恩“可能现在是估计自己的核武器足够多了”——因此在谈判桌上的筹码也比过去多了。

One possibility that causes consternation in the region is that Trump will settle for dismantling North Korea’s small fleet of intercontinental ballistic missiles, eliminating its ability to strike the United States — but leaving South Korea and Japan vulnerable. “It would be the ‘America First’ way,” Samore said, referring to Trump’s campaign slogan.

会在该地区引发恐慌的一种可能是,特朗普将接受朝鲜逐步废除规模很小的洲际弹道导弹,从而消除其攻打美国的能力——但这让韩国和日本还是易受攻击。“这将是‘美国优先’的方式,”萨莫尔说的是特朗普的竞选口号。

If skepticism is rampant in Washington, the Moon administration is somewhat more optimistic. To South Korean policymakers, Kim’s recent decisions suggest that he is willing to trade his nuclear arsenal for economic growth, which the young leader may see as necessary to preserving his rule for decades. They also argue Trump’s threats of military action have proved more effective at changing Kim’s calculations than anticipated.

如果说华盛顿方面疑虑四起,那么文在寅政府则比较乐观。对于韩国的决策者来说,金正恩最近的决策表明了他想以核武器换经济增长的意愿,这位年轻的领导人或许认为这是维持自己数十年统治的必要条件。他们还认为,特朗普提出的军事行动威胁比预想的更能有效改变金正恩的考量。

South Korean officials say they have spent far more time and energy coordinating with the Trump administration before the Friday summit meeting than with the North Koreans, an effort complicated by the White House shake-up that included the departure of Lt. Gen H.R. McMaster as national security adviser and the firing of Rex W. Tillerson as secretary of state.

韩国官员表示,在周五的首脑会晤前,他们花在与特朗普政府周旋上的时间和精力比花在朝鲜人身上的还多,而且由于美国国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特中将(Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster)的离开和国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)被解雇,事情变得更为复杂。

The focus on Washington also reflects concern about McMaster’s successor, John R. Bolton, who joined the administration after arguing for military strikes to destroy North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, ridiculing South Korean leaders as “putty in North Korea’s hands.”

华盛顿受到的关注反映出了人们对麦克马斯特的继任者约翰·R·博尔顿(John R. Bolton)的担忧。在加入政府之前,他就主张用军事打击来摧毁朝鲜的核武库,还嘲讽韩国领导人“任由朝鲜摆布”。

One area of consensus is an attempt to more clearly establish the talks’ desired outcome from the outset, giving all parties greater incentive to move forward. Previous negotiations were open-ended, without specific goals that everyone agreed on.

达成了共识的一点是,要从一开始便努力确立更为明确的预期会谈结果,给各方以更大的动力前进。此前的谈判均为开放式的,没有各方都同意的具体目标。

South Korea and the United States also want to push the North to accept a timetable that would move quickly from the suspension of weapons tests — which it announced last week — to the dismantlement of its nuclear program. Some in the Trump administration have argued for completion in six months, but that may be an opening negotiating position given the challenges involved.

韩国和美国也希望推动朝鲜在上周宣布暂停了武器测试之后迅速行动,将撤销核计划列入日程。特朗普政府中的一些人主张要在六个月内完成,但考虑到其中的挑战,这可能会是一个开放的谈判立场。

Bolton has occasionally cited the example of Libya, which shipped most of its nuclear equipment to a U.S. weapons lab in Tennessee over the course of several weeks in late 2003. But much of that equipment was still in crates; there was little to dismantle.

博尔顿有时会援引利比亚为例。2003年末,利比亚曾在数周之内将本国的大部分核设备运往了美国田纳西州的一个武器实验室。但其中大部分的设备仍在箱中,没什么要销毁的。

Iran took a bit more than six months to take apart much of its program and ship 97 percent of its nuclear material from the country. But, like Libya, it had not yet built nuclear weapons.

伊朗花了六个月多一点的时间来拆除其大部分工程,并运出了国内97%的核材料。但和利比亚一样,它并未造出核武器。

North Korea is believed to have 20 to 60 such weapons — U.S. intelligence agencies cannot agree on the number — in addition to a vast infrastructure of fuel production and weapons manufacturing facilities, much of it hidden in the mountains or underground. Samore argued that the North should be asked to hand over an inventory that the United States and its allies could compare with intelligence reports and seek to verify. That process would offer a first sign of whether Kim is coming clean, but could take years to complete.

据信,朝鲜拥有20到60枚核武器——美国的情报机构无法就此数字达成一致。此外,还有庞大的燃料生产设施和武器制造设施,其中大部分还隐藏在山区或地下。萨莫尔认为,应要求朝鲜交出一份可供美国及其盟友与情报机构的报告进行比较、核实的编目清单。这个过程可以作为金正恩是否毫无保留的第一个迹象,但它可能需要数年时间才能完成。

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