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朝鲜表达无核化意愿,美国谨慎乐观

更新时间:2018-3-8 19:08:21 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Raising Hopes, North Korea Offers to Talk About Its Nuclear Arsenal
朝鲜表达无核化意愿,美国谨慎乐观

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s sudden willingness to bargain with the Trump administration over scrapping its atomic arsenal surprised the world on Tuesday, setting in motion an unpredictable diplomatic dance with the United States and South Korea, but raising hopes that one of the most dangerous confrontations of the nuclear age could be defused.

韩国首尔——周二,朝鲜突然表示愿与特朗普政府就废除本国原子武器进行商谈,这个震惊世界的姿态开启了与美国和韩国难以预测的外交运作,但也使核时代最危险的对峙之一有了化解的可能。

South Korean envoys who met with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, conveyed his position in a statement after a two-day visit to North Korea. They also said he would suspend all nuclear and missile tests if such talks took place.

在朝鲜进行了为期两天的访问后,与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)会面的韩国特使用一则声明中转达了他的态度。他们还表示,如果谈判得以进行,金正恩将会暂停一切核试验和导弹试验。

“The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize,” the statement said. “It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed.”

“朝方明确表达了自己无核化的意愿,”声明写道。“朝方明确表示,只要消除对朝军事威胁,保障朝鲜体制安全,朝鲜没有理由拥核。”

The statement said North Korea had made clear that it wished for “a heartfelt dialogue with the United States on the issues of denuclearization and normalizing relations with the United States,” and that “while dialogue is continuing, it will not attempt any strategic provocations, such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests.”

声明称,朝鲜已明确表示自己愿意为“半岛无核化问题和实现朝美关系正常化与美国展开开诚布公的对话,”并表示在“对话持续进行期间,朝鲜不会试图进行如核试验和弹道导弹试射等任何战略挑衅。”

The two Koreas also agreed to hold a summit meeting between Kim and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on the countries’ border in late April and establish a telephone hotline before then, linking the two leaders directly, Moon’s office said.

文在寅(Moon Jae-in)办公室表示,韩朝两国还同意于4月底让金正恩与文在寅总统在两国边界举行会谈,在此之前还会设立热线电话,直接连接两国领导人。

North Korea, which has been saying its nuclear weapons are nonnegotiable, did not immediately provide its own version of what Kim had offered. That initial silence fed cautions he was raising premature optimism, or perhaps strategizing to buy time.

一直表示核武问题不容协商的朝鲜并未立即就金正恩的表态提供自己的版本。这种一开始的沉默让人担心,他是在引人过早乐观,或可能是争取时间的策略。

But it seemed unlikely the South Korean delegation would have publicized such an offer without the North’s assurances, after what by all accounts was an extraordinarily cordial visit. Even President Donald Trump, who has mocked Kim and vowed “fire and fury” that would obliterate North Korea if its nuclear forces ever attacked, offered a guarded but positive response.

但韩国代表团似乎不太可能在没有得到朝鲜保证的情况下公开这样的提议,并且是在据说极其友好的访问之后。就连曾经嘲笑金正恩,扬言朝鲜一旦发动核攻击就会用“炮火和怒火”摧毁他们的唐纳德·特朗普总统,也作出了一个谨慎但乐观的回应。

“For the first time in many years, a serious effort is being made by all parties concerned,” Trump said on Twitter. “The World is watching and waiting! May be false hope, but the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!”

“多年来头一次,各方都作出了十足的努力,”特朗普在Twitter上说。“世界正注视并等待着!就算可能是空欢喜一场,美国也已经做好了向各个方向努力的准备!”

Later in Washington, Trump told reporters: “The statements coming out of South Korea and North Korea have been very positive. That would be a great thing for the world.”

随后在华盛顿,特朗普告诉记者:“从韩国和朝鲜传来的声明非常积极。这对世界来说是一个好消息。”

White House officials were more cautious, with one senior official noting that the United States has negotiated with North Korea over its nuclear program off-and-on for 27 years, and that the North Koreans have broken every agreement they ever made with the Americans.

白宫官员则更加谨慎,一位高级官员指出,美国已断断续续地与朝鲜就核计划问题进行了27年的谈判,但朝鲜几乎破坏了与美国签订的所有协议。

The United States, this official said, has no current plans to further delay joint military exercises with South Korea, suspended for the Winter Olympics last month in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Those exercises are scheduled to resume in April, after the Paralympic Games in Pyeongchang.

这名官员表示,美国目前没有计划进一步推迟上月因韩国平昌冬奥会而暂时搁置的美韩联合军演。这些演习预定将于4月在平昌残奥会之后恢复。

While the Trump administration is intrigued by North Korea’s offer — as relayed through the South Koreans — the senior official noted that North Korea could still manufacture missiles and bombs during a pause in testing.

尽管特朗普政府对朝鲜通过韩国传达的提议很感兴趣,但这位高级官员指出,朝鲜仍有可能在暂停核试验的同时制造导弹和炸弹。

Two top advisers to Moon who met with Kim will visit the White House later this week to give a more detailed briefing on their talks. But the senior official said the United States had confidence in the preliminary assessment they had provided.

两名与金正恩会晤的文在寅的高级顾问将于本周晚些时候访问白宫,更详细地陈述会谈内容。不过,这位高级官员表示,美国对他们提供的初步评估有信心。

That assessment signals the first time Kim has indicated a willingness to discuss abandoning nuclear arms in return for security guarantees from the United States, which has technically been in a state of war with North Korea for nearly seven decades.

评估表明,金正恩第一次表示愿意讨论放弃核武器,以换取美国的安全保证。从严格意义上讲,美国已与朝鲜进行了近70年的战争。

The South Korean delegation gave no indication that North Korea would start dismantling nuclear or missile programs anytime soon. Nonetheless, the delegation’s visit represented major progress in Moon’s efforts to improve relations with North Korea. Those efforts advanced considerably during the Winter Olympics, to which Kim sent athletes, entertainers and political delegations that included his sister.

韩国代表团没有表示朝鲜会很快开始废除核武器或导弹计划。尽管如此,该代表团的访问表明,文在寅改善与朝鲜关系的努力取得了重大进展。这些努力在冬奥会期间得到了大力推进,金正恩派出了运动员、演艺人员以及包括胞妹在内的政治代表团。

A senior member of the South Korean delegation that returned on Tuesday, Moon’s national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, said Kim had been unexpectedly flexible.

周二回国的韩国代表团的一名高级成员、文在寅的国家安全顾问郑义荣(Chung Eui-yong)表示,金正恩表现出令人意外的灵活态度。

Chung told reporters in Seoul, the South Korean capital, that the delegation had anticipated Kim would insist that the South and the United States not hold their military exercises. The South Koreans were wrong.

郑义荣在韩国首都首尔向记者们表示,韩国代表团本以为金正恩会坚决要求韩国和美国不再举行军事演习。他们猜错了。

“Kim Jong Un simply said he could understand why the joint exercises must resume in April on the same scale as before,” Chung said. “But he said he expected them to be readjusted if the situation on the Korean Peninsula stabilizes in the future.”

“金正恩只是表示,他能理解两国为什么必须在4月份举行与之前规模相当的联合军演,”郑义荣说,“但他表示,如果朝鲜半岛的局势在未来稳定下来,他希望他们能做出调整。”

Chung said the South Koreans believed their agreements with North Korea would be enough to start a dialogue between Washington and the North. He also said he was carrying additional messages from Kim to the Trump administration that he could not reveal.

郑义荣说,韩国认为他们与朝鲜达成的协议足以让华盛顿和朝鲜开启对话。他表示,金正恩还让他给特朗普带了另一些话,但他不能透露。

“There was no other specific demand from North Korea in returning to dialogue,” he said. “They only said they wanted to be treated like a serious dialogue partner.”

“朝鲜对恢复对话没有其他任何具体要求,”他说。“他们只是说希望被当成一个严肃的对话伙伴。”

For Trump, the overture by North Korea sets in motion a challenging phase that will call on the United States to exercise diplomatic muscles after a long stretch in which the White House relied on economic pressure, backed by threats of military force.

对特朗普来说,朝鲜的提议让美国进入了一个具有挑战性的阶段,要求白宫在长期依靠经济压力并辅以武力威胁后动用外交力量。

That challenge will be compounded because the State Department’s veteran North Korea negotiator, Joseph Yun, recently announced his retirement from the Foreign Service. Another experienced negotiator, Victor Cha, was recently sidelined when the White House decided not to proceed with his nomination as ambassador to South Korea.

这项挑战会变得更加复杂,因为美国国务院的资深朝鲜谈判代表尹汝尚(Joseph Yun)不久前宣布从驻外机关事务局(Foreign Service)退休。另一位经验丰富的谈判代表车维德(Victor Cha)最近则遭遇出局,白宫决定不继续提名他担任驻韩国大使。

Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel could be an even greater source of friction. South Korea is the third-largest exporter of steel to the United States, accounting for nearly 10 percent of all exports.

特朗普宣布对钢铁征收关税可能会成为一个更大的摩擦源头。韩国是第三大对美钢铁出口国,占其所有出口产品的近10%。

While the president has floated the idea of excluding Canada and Mexico from the tariffs, provided they agree to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, he has said nothing about South Korea. Other administration officials said South Korea was among the worst offenders in terms of dumping steel into the American market.

尽管特朗普提出,如果加拿大和墨西哥同意重新协商《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement),就把它们排除在关税征收范围之外,但对韩国他只字未提。另一些联邦政府官员说,在对美国市场倾销钢铁方面,韩国是最严重的。

Trump is already demanding that South Korea overhaul its free trade agreement with the United States. Some in the administration have urged Trump to delay punitive trade measures while South Korea and the United States jointly deal with the North Korea issue.

特朗普已经要求韩国彻底修改与美国的自由贸易协议。部分联邦政府成员力劝特朗普在韩美共同应对朝鲜问题期间,推迟采取惩罚性的贸易措施。

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