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“友善和大胆”:金正恩外交首秀震惊韩国

更新时间:2018-3-8 19:01:10 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korean Leader, Known for His Bluster, Reveals Diplomatic Skills
“友善和大胆”:金正恩外交首秀震惊韩国

SEOUL, South Korea — When senior South Korean envoys sat down this week with North Korea’s reclusive leader, Kim Jong-un, they had a series of talking points in hand for a man whose diplomatic experience was limited to meetings with officials from China, Cuba and Syria.

韩国首尔——本周与离群索居的朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)坐在一起时,韩国高级特使为外交经验仅限于会见中国、古巴和叙利亚官员的金正恩准备了一系列议题。

It was a rare chance to make the case for nuclear disarmament directly to Mr. Kim, but it was also an unusual opportunity to size up a young dictator who has remained an enigma even as his weapons tests have terrified the world.

这是一个直接向金正恩提出解除核武器理由的难得机会,但也是一个估量这位年轻独裁者的罕见机会。尽管他的武器试验让世界陷入了恐慌,但他本人依然是个谜。

Even so, South Korean officials said, the envoys were not prepared for how “forthcoming and daring” Mr. Kim was over the course of more than four hours on Monday.

尽管如此,韩国官员称,特使们没料到金正恩在周一四个多小时的会面过程中有多么“友善和大胆”。

They had prepared to appeal to Mr. Kim not to let joint military exercises that South Korea and the United States will start in April derail a fragile détente. Traditionally, North Korea has countered such drills by conducting major missile tests.

他们准备请求金正恩不要让韩国和美国将于4月开始的联合军事演习破坏脆弱的关系缓和局面。传统上,朝鲜会通过进行大型导弹试验来对这类演习进行反击。

“We hope you can make another bold decision so we can overcome this hurdle,” read a bullet point in the handwritten memo of the South’s chief delegate, Chung Eui-yong, an image of which was captured by the North’s state-run television.

“我们希望您能再做出一个大胆的决定,这样我们就能克服这个障碍了,”韩国首席代表郑义荣(Chung Eui-yong)的手写备忘录中的一个要点写道。朝鲜官方电视台拍到了这句话。

Mr. Kim, who is just 34, surprised the much older South Korean diplomats not only by accepting joint South Korean-United States military drills but also by expressing his willingness to start negotiations with Washington on ending his nuclear weapons program. He also told them he would suspend all nuclear and ballistic missile tests while talks were underway.

年仅34岁的金正恩令年长他很多的韩国外交官大感意外。他不仅接受了韩美联合军演,而且表示愿意与华盛顿就中止其核武器计划启动谈判。金正恩还告诉他们,在谈判期间,他将暂停所有核武器和弹道导弹试验。

It was an eye-catching debut for Mr. Kim in international diplomacy.

这是金正恩在国际外交舞台上令人眼前一亮的首秀。

It was also a remarkable shift coming from Mr. Kim just months after he raised fears of war on the Korean Peninsula by launching a barrage of nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Considered by many to be a ruthless dictator with a reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons, Mr. Kim was now breaking the usual protocols in hosting the South Korean envoys, who came to appeal to him to change course.

这也是金正恩的一个重大转变。就在几个月前,他进行了一连串的核武器和洲际弹道导弹试验,引发了外界对朝鲜半岛爆发战争的担忧。很多人认为金正恩是一个顽固的独裁者,不计后果地发展核武器。现在,他打破了接待韩国特使的惯常礼节,而他们是来请他改弦易张的。

For the first time, the South Korean officials were invited into the headquarters of Mr. Kim’s ruling Workers’ Party, where he maintains an office. He beamed across the negotiating table, while the South Korean officials appeared to hang on his every word. His wife, Ri Sol-ju, was the first North Korean first lady to be introduced to South Korean guests. When it was time for the guests to leave after more than four hours of talking and dining, Mr. Kim walked them out and sent them off with smiles and waves.

韩国官员首次获邀进入金正恩所在的执政党劳动党(Workers’ Party)总部。在那里,金正恩保留了一间办公室。他面带微笑地坐在谈判桌的另一边,韩国官员则似乎倾听着他说的每一个字。他的妻子李雪主(Ri Sol-ju)作为朝鲜第一夫人首先被介绍给韩国来宾。四个多小时的会谈和用餐结束后,当客人要离开时,金正恩陪他们走出来,微笑着挥手告别。

“As a leader of a rogue state, he is a tough case to deal with,” said Kim Sung-han, a former vice foreign minister of South Korea who teaches at Korea University in Seoul, the South’s capital. “He has the guts but also is very strong in details. He is ambitious and has a desire to win.”

“作为一个流氓国家的领导人,他不好对付,”曾担任韩国副外长,现在韩国首都首尔的高丽大学(Korea University)任教的金圣翰(Kim Sung-han)说。“他有胆量,但也非常注重细节。他雄心勃勃,渴望胜利。”

His father, Kim Jong-il, ruled North Korea as a secretive and dour dictator until his death in 2011. The younger Mr. Kim, who attended a Swiss boarding school, has cast himself as a smiling, outgoing and youthful leader even as he has consolidated his totalitarian power with bloody purges of elites. This week, he played the seasoned diplomat by presiding over a roomful of reverential negotiators from the South — a point the North’s propaganda-filled state media did not miss in highlighting with front-page articles and large color photographs. Mr. Kim is set to travel to the border with South Korea for a summit meeting in late April with the South’s president, Moon Jae-in.

他的父亲金正日(Kim Jong-il)一直以神秘且阴沉的的独裁者形象统治朝鲜,直到2011年去世。曾就读于瑞士一所寄宿学校的金正恩把自己塑造成了一个爱笑、外向和年轻的领导人,即便是在他通过血腥地清洗权贵来巩固自己的极权主义权力时。本周,他扮演了一位经验丰富的外交官,坐在一屋子毕恭毕敬的韩国谈判代表中主持会谈。充斥着宣传的朝鲜官方媒体没有漏掉这一点,以头版文章和大幅彩色照片予以强调。金正恩将于4月末前往朝韩边境,同韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)举行首脑会议。

But in the playbook of North Korea’s opaque regime, agreeing to denuclearization talks is no guarantee that the country will start dismantling its nuclear arsenal. In offering to join such negotiations, Mr. Kim said he would give up his nuclear weapons only when he felt no more military threats from outside. Previous efforts all collapsed over the same hurdle: how much the United States should do to make North Korea feel secure enough to give up its weapons.

但在不透明的朝鲜政权的策略中,同意进行无核化会谈并不能保证朝鲜将开始拆除核武库。在主动提出加入这样的谈判时,金正恩说,只有不再感到存在来自外部的军事威胁时,他才会放弃核武器。之前的努力都因为同样的障碍而失败:美国应该采取多少行动来让朝鲜感到足够安全,可以放弃核武器。

The Trump administration has escalated economic pressure, backed by threats of military force, to deal with North Korea. President Trump has said he is open to talks “only under the right conditions,” and officials have insisted that the North take actions that would convince them of its sincerity to denuclearize before negotiations can begin.

为了应对朝鲜,特朗普政府以军事威胁为后盾,加大了对该国的经济压力。特朗普总统表示,他“只有在合适的条件下”才愿意进行谈判,官员们坚持要求朝鲜采取行动,在谈判可以开始之前让他们相信该国有诚意实现无核化。

Some analysts warned that hidden behind Mr. Kim’s charm offensive was a wily attempt to fend off harsh international sanctions and to deflate talk of military action coming from Washington. With the United Nations banning major North Korean exports, including coal, fish and textiles, its exports to China, its sole major trading partner, have plummeted 60 percent to 80 percent in recent months, a potentially crippling blow to Mr. Kim’s ability to revive his country’s economy and keep his elites happy with bribes.

一些分析人士警告,金正恩的魅力攻势背后隐藏着一个狡猾的企图,即躲避严厉的国际制裁,并且遏制华盛顿发出的关于军事行动的言论。随着联合国对于朝鲜的主要出口商品煤炭、鱼类和纺织品等下达了禁令,该国对唯一主要贸易伙伴中国的出口量在近几个月内下跌了60%至80%,这对金正恩复苏该国经济,并通过贿赂来让该国精英保持满意的能力可能造成沉重打击。

“Either Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s resolution to be a nice guy is real or his smiles and soft messages for Seoul are a ploy for buying time and money to perfect his own nuclear posture review,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

“要么金正恩的新年决心真的是做一个好人,要么他的微笑和对首尔发出的柔软信息是一种策略,目的是为了争取时间和金钱来完成他自己的核武态势评估,”塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院(Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)的朝鲜问题专家李晟允(Lee Sung-yoon)说。

Although Mr. Moon, the South’s leader, has repeatedly called for dialogue with Pyongyang, relations were deadlocked until Mr. Kim used his New Year’s Day speech to propose an inter-Korean dialogue and offer to send hundreds of athletes and cheerleaders to the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Mr. Kim also sent his sister, Kim Yo-jong, to meet Mr. Moon and invite him to a summit meeting.

虽然韩国总统文在寅一再呼吁与平壤进行对话,但两国关系陷入了僵局,直到金正恩在他的元旦讲话中提议韩朝对话,并提出要派遣数百名运动员和拉拉队员参加韩国平昌的冬奥会。金正恩还派他的胞妹金与正(Kim Yo-jong)和文在寅进行了会面,并邀请他参加峰会。

American officials were quick to take credit, arguing that their campaign for “maximum” pressure was forcing Mr. Kim’s hand. Nikki R. Haley, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, said last month: “Sending cheerleaders to Pyeongchang was a sign of desperation, not national pride.”

美国官员立即邀功,表示他们对朝鲜施加“最大”压力就是为了金正恩就范。美国驻联合国大使尼基·R·黑利(Nikki R. Haley)上个月表示:“把拉拉队派到平昌是一种绝望的表现,而非民族自豪感。”

But Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said there was also something else at play: Kim Jong-un’s self-confidence that he had a nuclear deterrent he hoped would give him far more leverage in dealing with Washington and Seoul than his father ever had. North Korea now says that it would come to any talks with Washington as an “equal” nuclear power.

然而,首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)研究朝鲜问题的教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)称,还有其他一些因素在起作用:金正恩对于自己已经手握他所希望拥有的核威慑的自信,将使其在应对华盛顿和首尔的过程中拥有比其父大得多的优势。朝鲜现在表示,它会以“平等”核大国的身份与华盛顿进行任何谈判。

“We see him increasingly self-confident about what he is doing,” Mr. Koh said. “If we look at what has happened in the past couple months, it was Kim Jong-un who took the initiative in each key moment.”

“我们看到他对于自己的行为越来越自信,”高有焕说。“如果我们看看过去几个月发生的事,是金正恩在每一个关键节点上采取了主动。”

Mr. Kim spent his first years in office establishing an unchallenged authority at home and building a nuclear arsenal. But he still faces a policy goal his father failed to achieve: reviving the moribund economy. Some analysts say Mr. Kim may have realized that he cannot do so without making a compromise over his nuclear weapons program.

金正恩掌权的头几年,在国内确立了不受挑战的权威,并建立了一座核武库。但他仍然面对着他父亲未能实现的政策目标:复苏奄奄一息的经济。一些分析人士称,金正恩可能已经意识到,如果不在核武器计划上作出妥协,他就无法达成目标。

“He wanted to show his confidence and stability in his power,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “But the economy is his last challenge in quieting the people’s discontent and establishing his leadership, and he knows that he cannot improve the economy without improving ties with South Korea and the United States.”

“他想要展示他手中权力的信心及其稳定性,”首尔的朝鲜问题研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)教授杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)说。“但经济是他在平息人民的不满和树立其领导地位上的最后一项挑战,他知道如果不改善与韩国和美国的关系,就无法修复经济。”

But given the long history of war, armed skirmishes, sabotage and broken deals on the divided Korean Peninsula, there is deep skepticism over Mr. Kim’s overture. Analysts warned that once the “denuclearization” talks begin, North Korea could endlessly haggle to force Washington to accept it as a nuclear power in return for a promise not to expand its weapons programs, especially its ICBM efforts.

但考虑到朝鲜半岛长期以来的战争、武装冲突、破坏和破裂的协议,金正恩的提议受到了强烈质疑。分析人士警告,一旦“无核化”谈判开始,朝鲜可能会不断讨价还价,迫使华盛顿承认其为核大国,以换取该国不扩大武器项目,尤其是其洲际弹道导弹(ICBM)的承诺。

“Ever since it was born, North Korea has never faithfully implemented any agreement,” said Yoo Dong-ryul, director of the Korea Institute for Liberal Democracy in Seoul. “By playing along with the North, South Korea is vouching for its confidence game.”

“自诞生以来,朝鲜就从来没有诚心诚意地落实过任何协议,”首尔韩国自由民主研究所(Korea Institute for Liberal Democracy)的所长柳东烈(Yoo Dong-ryul,音)说。“通过和朝鲜合作,韩国在为它的骗局做担保。”

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