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美朝外交:希望与失望的历史循环

更新时间:2018-3-7 18:38:13 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

With U.S. and North Korea, a Repeated History of Hope and Disappointment
美朝外交:希望与失望的历史循环

WASHINGTON — Diplomacy between the United States and North Korea has gone through familiar cycles of long stagnation, followed by brief bursts of hope and then inevitable disappointment, typically after North Korea reneged. President Trump’s three predecessors each went through the cycle.

华盛顿——美国和朝鲜之间的外交经历了似曾相识的循环,先是长期的停滞,随后是突然出现的短暂希望,而通常在朝鲜食言后,便是照例必有的失望。特朗普总统的三个前任都曾各自经历过这一循环。

In October 1994, Bill Clinton concluded what was perhaps the most ambitious nuclear agreement ever reached between Washington and Pyongyang — called, appropriately, the Agreed Framework.

1994年10月,比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)签订了或许是华盛顿和平壤达成的最有力核协议,它有个恰如其分的名称,叫《框架协议》(Agreed Framework)。

Under the deal, North Korea agreed to halt construction of two nuclear reactors that the United States believed would be used to produce fuel for a nuclear bomb. In return, the White House pledged to give North Korea two alternative nuclear power reactors that could not be used in a weapons program — as well as fuel to tide it over before the new reactors were ready.

根据协议,朝鲜同意停止建造美国认为将会用来生产核弹燃料的两座核反应堆。作为交换,白宫承诺为朝鲜提供两座不能被用于武器计划的核反应堆——以及在新反应堆准备就绪之前用以过渡的燃料。

The agreement headed off a threat by North Korea to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and eased what had been one of the tensest periods on the Korean Peninsula since the armistice that ended the Korean War.

这项协议遏制了朝鲜退出《核不扩散条约》(Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty)的威胁,缓和了朝鲜半岛上自朝鲜战争以休战方式结束以后最紧张的时期之一。

The Clinton administration tried to expand the scope of the Agreed Framework after North Korea began testing ballistic missiles in 1998. That effort culminated with a trip to Pyongyang by Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright in 2000, and what another American official, Wendy Sherman, later wrote were negotiations that came “tantalizingly close” to a broader agreement.

在朝鲜1998年开始了弹道导弹试射后,克林顿政府曾试图扩大《框架协议》的范围。该努力以2000年美国国务卿玛德琳·K·奥尔布赖特(Madeleine K. Albright)访问平壤告终,另一位美国官员温迪·谢尔曼(Wendy Sherman)后来写道,这些谈判离更广泛的协议“只有一步之遥”。

But no deal was consummated before President George W. Bush took office, and Mr. Bush initiated his own policy review. The disclosure that North Korea was developing a capability to enrich uranium led the Bush administration to conclude that the Agreed Framework was not worth upholding, and construction on the new reactors was suspended.

但在乔治·W·布什总统(George W. Bush)上任之前没有完成任何协议,而布什开始了自己的政策反思。朝鲜正在发展铀浓缩能力这一事实的披露,导致布什政府断定该《框架协议》不值得维系,也暂停了新反应堆的建设。

At the end of 2002, North Korea expelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, restarted its nuclear facilities and announced it was withdrawing from the nonproliferation treaty. The Agreed Framework was dead.

2002年年底,朝鲜驱逐了国际原子能机构(International Atomic Energy Agency)的检查员,重新启动了本国的核设施,并宣布退出不扩散条约。《框架协议》成为泡影。

From then on, negotiations occurred within a framework of six parties: North Korea, the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. Those talks, led on the American side by Christopher R. Hill, went on fitfully from 2002 to 2005, when North Korea promised to “abandon nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.”

此后,谈判都在一个六方框架下进行:朝鲜、美国、韩国、中国、俄罗斯和日本。这些由美方克里斯托弗·R·希尔(Christopher R. Hill)领导的谈话在2002到2005年间断断续续地进行,当时朝鲜承诺“放弃核武器和现有核计划”。

After years of haggling over how to verify the North Korean pledge, the six-party talks broke down in 2009, leaving President Barack Obama to deal with a North Korea that had made progress in its nuclear program and remained opaque and suspicious of the outside world.

在就如何核验朝鲜的承诺争论多年后,六方会谈于2009年破裂,把这个已经在核计划方面取得了进展,但依然对外界保持怀疑、难以捉摸的朝鲜留给了贝拉克·奥巴马总统(Barack Obama)解决。

The Obama administration showed little appetite for reviving the Six-Party process, and instead embarked on a policy of steadily tightening economic pressure on North Korea. But American diplomats began quietly meeting with their North Korean counterparts.

奥巴马政府对恢复六方会谈并没有表现出多大兴趣,反而开始了一项稳步收紧对朝经济压力的政策。但美国外交官开始悄悄与朝鲜官员会面。

On Feb. 29, 2012, the two sides announced a deal — the so-called Leap Day Agreement — under which North Korea would halt operations at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor and allow in inspectors to verify its suspension of nuclear and missile testing. In return, the United States pledged to offer food aid to North Korea.

2012年2月29日,双方宣布达成了所谓的《闰日协议》(Leap Day Agreement),根据协议,朝鲜将暂停宁边核反应堆的运作,并允许检查员确认核试验和导弹试验已经停止。作为回应,美国承诺向朝鲜提供食物援助。

Within a month North Korea was threatening to launch a satellite, effectively nullifying the deal.

不到一个月,朝鲜便威胁要发射卫星,实际上等于撕毁了协议。

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