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“导弹的复兴”:军备竞赛和蔓延的战争威胁

更新时间:2018-2-14 10:04:59 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Only 5 Nations Can Hit Any Place on Earth With a Missile. For Now.
“导弹的复兴”:军备竞赛和蔓延的战争威胁

Only 5 Nations Can Hit Any Place on Earth With a Missile. For Now.

目前,只有5个国家可以用导弹击中地球上的任何地方。

North Korea has drastically increase the range of its missiles. In tests last year, the nation showed that it could probably strike the United States.

朝鲜已大幅增加其导弹射程。在去年进行的测试中,这个国家展示了它对美国实施打击的可能性。

North Korea is among a number of countries that have been working to improve the accuracy and range of their missiles.

世界上有几个国家一直在致力于改进其导弹的准确性和射程,朝鲜是其中之一。

“We believe we’re entering a missile renaissance,” said Ian Williams, an associate director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has been compiling data on missile programs in different countries.

“我们相信我们正在迎来一场导弹的复兴,”华盛顿国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)副主任伊恩·威廉姆斯(Ian Williams)说,他一直在汇集整理各个国家的导弹计划数据。

A growing number of countries with ready access to missiles increases regional tensions and makes war more likely, Mr. Williams said. Countries are more apt to use their arsenals if they think their missiles could be targeted.

威廉姆斯说,越来越多的国家拥有随时可供使用的导弹,这加剧了地区紧张局势,并使战争更可能发生。如果这些国家认为自己的导弹可能成为攻击目标,它们就会更倾向于动用自己的武器储备。

In addition, many of the missiles being developed by these countries are based on obsolete technologies, which makes them less accurate, increasing the risk to civilians. And there is a risk that missiles could fall into the hands of militias and terrorist groups.

此外,这些国家正在开发的许多导弹基于过时的技术,使得它们的准确性不够强,增加了对平民的风险。导弹亦有可能落入民兵和恐怖组织手中。

Many of the countries that have heavily invested in missiles over the last two decades are in well-known hotspots in Asia and the Middle East.

许多过去20年里致力于导弹技术的国家都位于亚洲和中东的著名热点地区。

Countries investing in missiles are often trying to deter regional adversaries. But the effects of this arms race ripples across the globe.

致力于导弹技术的国家往往意在威慑其区域竞争对手。但这种军备竞赛的影响会波及全球。

North Korea is an example of the danger. Estimates of the country’s maximum missile range went from 745 miles in 1990 to more than 8,000 miles now. That’s enough to strike about half of the world, including the United States mainland. (During the same period, South Korea gained the ability to strike anywhere in North Korea.)

朝鲜就是一个危险的例子。该国最大估计导弹射程从1990年的1200公里(745英里)增加到了现在的13000多公里(8000多英里)。这足以打击半个世界,包括美国本土。(在同一时期内,韩国获得了打击朝鲜任何地方的能力。)

Countries like Iran, North Korea and Pakistan have robust missile development programs. And the similarity of some of their missiles indicates that they have collaborated to share technology.

伊朗、朝鲜和巴基斯坦等国家都制定了坚决的导弹发展计划。其中一些导弹的相似性表明,它们已在进行技术共享的合作。

Pakistan began investing more heavily in its missile program in the 1990s and is believed to have also collaborated with China. By the mid-2000s, Pakistan had the ability to strike most of India, its main regional rival.

自1990年代以来,巴基斯坦对其导弹项目进行了更大规模的投资,据信也在与中国合作。到2000年代中期,巴基斯坦有能力打击其主要区域对手印度的大部分地区。

India, in turn, became capable of striking anywhere in Pakistan and most of China, another regional rival, in the last two decades. India is now collaborating with Russia to develop cruise missiles.

反过来,印度在过去的20年中有了打击巴基斯坦和另一个区域竞争对手中国大部分地区的能力。印度目前正与俄罗斯合作研制巡航导弹。

Saudi Arabia and Israel were already able to strike Iran before 1990. But now Iran could strike back at either country, thanks in part to technology it acquired from North Korea.

沙特阿拉伯和以色列在1990年以前就已经有能力打击伊朗。但是现在伊朗可以反击两国,这部分得益于它从朝鲜获得的技术。

Additionally, both India and North Korea are working on submarine-launched missiles, which would enable the two nations to better hide their missiles to use in retaliatory strikes.

此外,印度和朝鲜正在研制潜射导弹,这将使两国能够更好地隐藏导弹,用于报复性打击。

Another area of concern is militias or terrorist groups getting access to missiles.

另一个关注的焦点是民兵或恐怖组织获得导弹。

One clear example of this happened in November, when a ballistic missile fired from Yemen reached Saudi Arabia’s capital . The missile was fired by Houthi rebels, a Shiite militia that took control of large parts of Yemen three years ago and that is backed by Iran and Hezbollah, a militant group from Lebanon.

11月就发生了一个明显的例子,从也门发射的一枚弹道导弹打到了沙特阿拉伯的首都。这枚导弹是由什叶派的胡塞人叛军发射的,三年前,该组织控制着也门很大一片地区,目前得到伊朗和来自黎巴嫩武装组织真主党(Hezbollah)的支持。

The Arab League has accused the Houthis of firing dozens of missiles against Saudi Arabia since the kingdom began an offensive to oust the rebels in 2015.

自从沙特阿拉伯于2015年开始发动进攻,意图推翻胡塞叛乱后,阿拉伯联盟谴责该组织已对沙特发射了数十枚导弹。

The weapon used against Saudi Arabia was a variation of the Scud missile.

此次对沙特阿拉伯使用的武器是飞毛腿(Scud)导弹的变体。

The Scud and its variations have become some of the most common missiles in the world. Russia originally developed the Scud in the 1950s to carry weapons of mass destruction.

飞毛腿及其变体已成为世界上最常见的导弹。1950年代,俄罗斯最早开发了这种导弹,用以运载大规模杀伤性武器。

The missile played a crucial role in weapons programs of countries like North Korea and Iran. The weapons produced by North Korea are examples of how difficult it is to stop missiles from spreading.

导弹在朝鲜和伊朗等国家的武器计划中发挥了至关重要的作用。朝鲜生产的武器可以证明,要阻止导弹扩散有多么困难。

Despite decades of sanctions, the country developed a family of ballistic missiles using lessons learned from the Scud. Some of the descendants were sold to other nations.

尽管经过数十年的制裁,该国利用从飞毛腿中学到的东西开发了一系列弹道导弹。其中一些后代产品被卖给其他国家。

“Soviet – later North Korean – Scuds might be a sort of gateway drug to a missile program, but the big story is domestic proliferation,” said Jeffrey Lewis , director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

“苏联的飞毛腿——乃至后来朝鲜的飞毛腿——可能相当于导弹项目的入门毒品,但最重要的环节还是国内导弹数量的激增,”明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)东亚核不扩散项目主任杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)说。

Here are some of the weapons, including an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, that North Korea developed based on the Scud design.

下面是其中一些武器,包括朝鲜依据飞毛腿设计开发的洲际弹道导弹(ICBM)。

Trying to prevent the spread of missile technology is very difficult. But it’s nearly impossible to stop the trade in smaller parts, like guidance systems and engines, as well as human expertise. A single computer thumb drive can hold many secrets.

试图阻止导弹技术的传播是非常困难的。要停止制导系统和引擎等小型零件以及专业人才的交易,则是近乎不可能做到的。一个电脑U盘就可以装下许多秘密。

And, sometimes, a single piece can be the catalyst for a breakthrough: A powerful Soviet engine design that North Korea acquired is thought to be a main driver of the country’s recent advances.

有时,某一单独部件便可能成为突破的催化剂:朝鲜所获得的一种高性能苏联发动机设计,被认为是该国近期导弹发展的主要动力。

Dr. Lewis added that that many counties are now learning the secrets of rocketry and how to make progressively more threatening models. India, for example, is working on a missile that could enable it to strike nearly half of the planet.

刘易斯补充说,现在许多国家都在学习火箭的秘密,以及如何制造越来越有威胁性的型号。例如,印度正在研制一种有能力打击地球近一半范围的导弹。

The rising threat of missile proliferation has sparked new control efforts by the Missile Technology Control Regime, a group of 35 countries that seeks to restrict exports of missiles and their components.

导弹扩散威胁日益增加,促使“导弹科技管制建制”(Missile Technology Control Regime)组织展开了一项新行动,这是一个由35个国家构成的集团,旨在限制导弹及其部件的出口。

The group in a recent statement highlighted the “critical importance” of its work for addressing the rapid changes in how weapons are developed and transferred.

该组织在最近发表的声明中强调,它的工作对于解决武器开发和转让方式的迅速变化“至关重要”。

But some analysts are skeptical that it is possible to stop missile transfers. “The prospects for controlling proliferation of missiles are fading rapidly as the technology to build them becomes more prosaic,” Dr. Lewis said.

但一些分析人士怀疑导弹的转移是否有可能停止。“控制导弹扩散的希望正在迅速消失,因为构建它们的技术正变得越来越寻常,”刘易斯说。

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