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核阴影下,如何保障平昌冬奥会安全?

更新时间:2018-2-2 20:04:56 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Protecting an Olympics Held in North Korea’s Nuclear Shadow
核阴影下,如何保障平昌冬奥会安全?

PYEONGCHANG, South Korea — Security is a top concern at every Olympics, where athletes and fans in scattered venues can be difficult to protect. But rarely do they take place in the shadow of a nuclear standoff, as is the case with the Winter Games that open next week here in South Korea.

韩国平昌——在每届奥运会,安全都是人们最关心的问题,运动员和观众分散在各处场地,难以保护。但很少有像下周将在韩国举行的冬奥会这样是在核对峙的阴影下进行的。

Nearly 3,000 athletes from 92 nations and 100,000 spectators per day are expected to converge on the area around Pyeongchang, 50 miles from the North Korean border, for what organizers say will be the largest-ever Winter Games. The South has mobilized tens of thousands of security personnel — including 50,000 soldiers — in what may be the most militarized security force in Olympic history.

来自92个国家的近3000名运动员以及每天的10万名观众将聚集在距朝鲜边境50英里(约合80公里)的平昌各处,组织者称这将是有史以来最大的冬奥会。韩国动员了数万名安保人员,其中包括5万名士兵,组成了奥运史上军事化程度最高的安保力量。

A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough in which North Korea agreed to participate in the games has pushed fears of worst-case scenarios into the background, at least for now. But the North remains the most unpredictable factor in security arrangements, because it has a history of engaging in violence when South Korea hosts international sports events.

朝鲜在最后时刻同意参加奥运会,外交上的这个突破排除了出现最坏情况的可能性——至少暂时是这样。但在安全部署方面,朝鲜仍是最不可预测的因素,因为朝鲜有过在韩国主办国际体育赛事时进行暴力活动的历史。

The arrival Thursday of a delegation of North Korean athletes — part of a larger contingent of around 500 athletes, officials and performers — raises a separate set of security challenges, including protecting them from attacks by extremists in South Korea.

周四,朝鲜运动员代表团抵达韩国,这是一个由约500名运动员、官员和表演者组成的庞大队伍的一部分。他们的到来带来了另一套安全挑战,包括保护他们免受韩国极端分子的攻击。

Organizers have long feared that the North might test a missile or nuclear weapon during the games, perhaps even provoking a chain reaction of escalations leading to war. Such worries have subsided since the January deal, in which the two Koreas agreed to march under one flag in the opening ceremony.

组织者一直担心朝鲜可能会在奥运会期间试射导弹或核武器,甚至引发一系列不断升级的连锁反应,导致战争发生。自1月达成协议以来,这种担忧有所缓解。双方同意在开幕式上在同一面旗帜下一起入场。

But there are still suspicions about the North’s intentions.

但仍有人对朝鲜的意图表示怀疑。

“North Korea will cause trouble one way or another in order to interrupt the successful completion of the games,” said Yoo Dong-ryul, head of the Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy in Seoul. “In all the years the Kim dynasty has been in power, North Korea has never once properly cooperated with South Korea.”

“朝鲜会以这样或那样的方式制造麻烦,破坏奥运会的顺利进行,”首尔的韩国自由民主研究院(Korea Institute of Liberal Democracy)的院长柳东烈(Yoo Dong-ryul,音)表示。“金氏王朝掌权的这些年,朝鲜从未与韩国有过一次很好的合作。”

In November 1987, 10 months before Seoul hosted the 1988 Summer Games, North Korean agents detonated a bomb on a South Korean airliner, killing all 104 passengers and 11 crew members. The goal, one of the agents later told investigators, was to frighten international athletes and visitors out of attending the games.

1987年11月,在首尔主办1988年夏季奥运会的10个月前,朝鲜特工在一架韩国客机上引爆了一枚炸弹,导致104名乘客和11名机组成员全部遇难。其中一名特工后来向调查人员承认,这么做的目的是为了恐吓国际运动员和游客,阻止他们参加奥运会。

When South Korea co-hosted the soccer World Cup in 2002, a naval clash with North Korea in disputed waters killed six South Korean sailors just hours before the South played in the third-place match.

2002年,韩国与日本联合举办世界杯足球赛,在韩国参加争夺第三名的比赛前数小时,韩国和朝鲜在争议海域发生了军事冲突,导致6名韩国水兵遇害。

But the North did not take part in those sporting events. When North Korea has participated in events hosted by the South — the 2002 Asian Games in Busan and the 2014 Asian Games in Incheon, for example — there have been no major disruptions.

不过,朝鲜没有参加那些体育赛事。当朝鲜参加韩国举办的体育赛事时——例如,2002年的釜山亚运会和2014年的仁川亚运会——没有出现重大干扰。

That is why South Korean officials and analysts argue that the risk of a military provocation during these Olympics — nuclear or otherwise — has been significantly reduced.

因此,韩国官员和分析人士认为,在奥运会期间发生军事挑衅(不管是否涉及核武器)的风险已经大大降低。

Still, South Korea plans to field up to 60,000 security personnel on each day of the games, including the 50,000 soldiers — more than twice the number of military personnel deployed during the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.

不过,韩国计划在奥运会期间每天派出多达6万名安保人员,其中包括5万名士兵,这个数字是2016年里约热内卢夏季奥运会期间部署的军事人员数量的两倍多。

“The possibility of a missile or nuclear test is extremely low,” said Shin Beom-chul, an expert on North Korea at the government-run Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. “The North may use the games as a political propaganda opportunity to show that while they may be a nuclear power, they also want to have peace with their neighbors.”

“导弹或核试验的可能性非常小,”首尔由政府开设的国家外交学院(Korea National Diplomatic Academy)朝鲜问题专家申范澈(Shin Beom-chul)说。“朝鲜可能会把奥运会作为一个政治宣传机会,表明尽管他们可能是一个核国家,但他们也希望与邻国和平相处。”

Since North Korea agreed to attend the games, organizers have scrambled to coordinate security and logistics for its delegation, which includes a cheerleading squad.

自从朝鲜同意参加奥运会以来,组织者便赶紧协调包括一支啦啦队在内的朝鲜代表团的安保和后勤。

Jeong Se-yun, a provincial police official involved in the planning, said the North’s decision was a tremendous relief. “But it also created a lot more work for us,” he said. “I’ve barely slept in the last month. That’s why my eyes are always red now.”

参与筹备的韩国道级警方官员郑世延( Jeong Se-yun,音)说,朝鲜的决定令人大松一口气。“但也给我们增加了大量工作,”他说。“上个月我几乎没睡过觉。这就是为什么我的眼睛现在总是红的。”

One fear is that something might happen during the games that could prompt North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, to recall its athletes and retaliate in some way.

一个担心是奥运会期间可能会发生什么事情,促使朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)召回运动员,并用某种方式进行报复。

A small group of right-wing protesters burned an image of Kim as a North Korean delegation traveled through Seoul last month. Police quickly extinguished the fire to avoid angering the visitors, who accord Kim an almost godlike status.

上月当一支朝鲜代表团经过首尔时,一小群右翼抗议人士焚烧了一幅金正恩画像。为了避免激怒把金正恩看作近乎神一样的朝鲜代表,警方迅速灭火。

State media in North Korea condemned the act as a “hideous crime” committed by “human rejects,” and warned that only South Korea would be to blame if the North withdrew from the games.

朝鲜官方媒体谴责这一行为是“人间次品”犯下的“丑恶罪行”,并警告说如果朝鲜退出奥运会,也只能怪韩国。

Authorities are also on alert against a cyberattack, either by the North or by Russia, whose delegation was banned from participating under the Russian flag in the Pyeongchang Games after revelations of systematic government-sponsored doping.

当局也对网络攻击保持警惕。发动网络攻击的不是朝鲜,就是俄罗斯。在爆出存在由政府主导的系统性使用兴奋剂的情况后,俄罗斯的代表团被禁止在俄罗斯的国旗下参加平昌冬奥会。

North Korea has developed sophisticated hacking capabilities and launched a series of damaging attacks around the world, including one in 2013 that temporarily knocked out three banks and two television networks in South Korea.

朝鲜已经有了成熟的黑客能力,并在世界各地发起了一系列造成损失的攻击,包括2013年的一场攻击。那场攻击导致韩国三家银行和两家电视台短期受影响。

To combat more conventional threats, organizers said the security forces intended to deploy both old-fashioned checkpoints and new technologies such as facial recognition systems, smart cameras and drones. A tactical surveillance blimp will hover above.

为了应对更常规的威胁,组织者称安全部队打算同时部署老式检查站和新技术,如人脸识别系统、智能相机和无人机。届时还会有一架战术监察飞艇在空中盘旋。

South Korea is considered one of the world’s safest tourist destinations, with low crime rates and essentially no history of terrorist activity other than by the North. Nevertheless, immigration authorities said last month that they had deported 17 foreign nationals believed to pose a terror risk, according to the Korea Times newspaper. Some of the deportees were said to be from Central Asia and Southeast Asia.

韩国被认为是全球最安全的旅游目的地之一,犯罪率低,并且除朝鲜外几乎没有恐怖主义活动记录。然而,《韩国时报》(Korea Times)报道,移民当局上月表示,他们驱逐了17名据信构成恐怖威胁的外国人。一些被遣返者据说来自中亚和东南亚。

“Broadly, we consider the event low-risk,” the London-based Risk Advisory Group wrote in a recent analysis of the Pyeongchang Games. “Compared with the host cities of the most recent Winter and Summer Games in 2014 and 2016 respectively, Pyeongchang is a benign environment in terms of terrorism, crime and unrest.”

“总体上,我们认为本届奥运会风险低,”设在伦敦的风险咨询集团(Risk Advisory Group)在最近对平昌奥运会进行的一项分析中写道。“和距今最近的2014年冬季奥运会和2016年夏季奥运会的主办城市相比,平昌就恐怖主义、犯罪和动荡而言环境良好。”

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