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“末日时钟”拨快30秒

更新时间:2018-1-27 10:38:55 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Doomsday Clock Is Set at 2 Minutes to Midnight, Closest Since 1950s
“末日时钟”拨快30秒

The Doomsday Clock, a potent symbol of scientific concerns about humanity’s possible annihilation, was advanced by 30 seconds on Thursday, to 2 minutes to midnight, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced in Washington.

《原子科学家公报》(Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)在华盛顿宣布,周四,“末日时钟”(Doomsday Clock)被拨快了30秒,离午夜仅剩两分钟。末日时钟是一个从科学层面表达人类灭亡可能性的有力象征。

The last time the clock was moved so close to midnight was in 1953, during the Cold War.

末日时钟上次被拨快到如此接近午夜是在1953年的冷战时期。

“In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change, making the world security situation more dangerous than it was a year ago — and as dangerous as it has been since World War II,” the bulletin’s science and security board, which oversees the clock, said in a statement.

“在2017年,世界各国的领导人未能有效地应对不断逼近的核战争和气候变化威胁,导致世界安全形势比一年前更为危险,与二战结束以来最危险的时期相当,”该公报监管末日时钟的科学与安全委员会在一份声明中表示。

It cited the risks from North Korea’s nuclear program; discord between Russia and the United States; the build up of the nuclear arsenals of Pakistan and India; and uncertainty over the Iran nuclear deal.

它提到的风险包括朝鲜的核计划;俄罗斯与美国的不和;巴基斯坦和印度核武库的增强;伊朗核协议的不确定性。

The scientists also warned that the sustained reductions in greenhouses gases needed to prevent disastrous warming of the planet had not yet occurred, and cited the dangers that technology disruption is causing for democracies, including disinformation campaigns intended to manipulate elections and undermine confidence in democracy.

科学家们还警告称,我们未能实现温室气体的持续减少,而它是防止地球灾难性变暖所必需的。科学家们还指出,技术颠覆给民主国家带来了危险,包括旨在操纵选举、破坏民主信心的信息造假活动。

They also found that “in 2017, the United States backed away from its longstanding leadership role in the world, reducing its commitment to seek common ground and undermining the overall effort toward solving pressing global governance challenges.”

他们还发现,“在2017年,美国放弃了担任世界长期领导者的角色,减少了寻求共识的承诺,削弱了解决紧迫的全球治理挑战的整体努力。”

The scientists cited, among other destabilizing factors, the harsh rhetoric PresidentTrump has exchanged with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un; Mr. Trump’s disavowal of the Iran deal; the hiring of climate-change deniers at the Environmental Protection Agency; and the administration’s plans to remake and expand the nation’s nuclear arsenal.

科学家们提到了以下这些不稳定因素:特朗普总统与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)激烈的言辞交锋;特朗普否认伊朗核协议;任命否认气候变化者在环境保护局(Environmental Protection Agency)就职;特朗普政府计划重建和扩大美国的核武库。

“Neither allies nor adversaries have been able to reliably predict U.S. actions — or understand when U.S. pronouncements are real, and when they are mere rhetoric,” the scientists found. “International diplomacy has been reduced to name-calling, giving it a surreal sense of unreality that makes the world security situation ever more threatening.”

“无论是盟友还是对手,都无法可靠地预测美国的行动——或者理解美国的哪些声明是真的,哪些只是言辞威慑,”科学家们发现。“国际外交已经沦为互相辱骂,给人一种超现实的感觉,导致世界安全局势变得更加危险。”

The scientists added: “To call the world nuclear situation dire is to understate the danger — and its immediacy.”

科学家们还表示:“称世界核局势危急,是低估了它的危险及其迫切性。”

The clock was last set at 2 minutes to midnight in 1953, after the Americans and then the Soviets tested thermonuclear weapons for the first time, within six months of each other. That was also the year that the Korean War ended — or, some would argue, paused — and President Dwight D. Eisenhower unveiled Atoms for Peace, a program intended to convince Americans that nuclear energy could be used to support research, medicine and agriculture and not only to destroy.

末日时钟上次被定为午夜前两分钟是在1953年,当时美国和苏联分别首次试验了热核武器,前后仅相隔六个月。也是在那一年,朝鲜战争结束——也有人认为是暂停;德怀特·D·艾森豪威尔(Dwight D. Eisenhower)总统宣布了“和平利用原子能”计划(Atoms for Peace),该计划旨在让美国人相信,核能可以用于支持科研、医学和农业,而不仅仅是摧毁。

That year, Eugene Rabinowitch, a former Manhattan Project scientist who co-founded the Bulletin, wrote: “The achievement of a thermonuclear explosion by the Soviet Union, following on the heels of the development of ‘thermonuclear devices’ in America, means that the time, dreaded by scientists since 1945, when each major nation will hold the power of destroying, at will, the urban civilization of any other nation, is close at hand.”

当年,曾参与曼哈顿计划(Manhattan Project)的科学家、《原子科学家公报》联合创立者尤金·拉宾诺维奇(Eugene Rabinowitch)写道:“苏联紧紧跟随美国‘热核装置’的开发,成功完成了热核爆炸试验,这意味着,科学家们自1945年以来最担忧的时刻近在眼前,那就是,每个主要国家将拥有随意摧毁另一个国家的城市文明的力量。”

The clock has been adjusted many times since it debuted in 1947. Since 2010 — years before Mr. Trump’s presidency — the needle has moved ever closer to midnight: 5 minutes in 2012, 3 minutes in 2015, and two and a half minutes last year.

自1947年问世以来,末日时钟已被多次调整。从特朗普还没当总统的2010年开始,指针距离午夜的时间越来越近:2012年五分钟,2015年三分钟,去年两分半钟。

Along with nuclear proliferation and climate change — which first factored into the setting of the clock in 2007 — the scientists said they were alarmed by the speed of technological change. They called on world leaders to manage the advances so that the benefits are reaped and the dangers countered.

气候变化是2007年首次被作为末日时钟时间设定的考虑因素的,除了它和核扩散之外,科学家称他们对科技变革的速度感到担忧。他们呼吁世界领导人对技术进步进行管理,从而趋利避害。

They cited, among other threats, the hacking of computer systems that control financial and energy infrastructure; the development of autonomous weaponry that can make “kill” decisions without human supervision; and the possible misuse of synthetic biology, including the revolutionary Crispr-Cas9 gene-editing tool.

他们提到的威胁包括控制金融和能源基础设施的电脑系统被入侵,无需人类指导便可做出“杀戮”决定的自动武器的开发,以及合成生物学可能会被滥用,包括革命性的Crispr-Cas9基因编辑工具。

The clock does not lack for critics. For example, some say that warning people of danger actually induces political paralysis. Others question the judgments of the expert panel that oversees the clock — the bulletin’s science and security board — including the finding that the safest moment was in 1991, right after the Cold War had ended.

对末日时钟持批评态度的不乏其人。比如,一些人认为,警告人们注意危险实际上会引发政治瘫痪。另一些人质疑管理它的专家委员会——即该公报的科学与安全委员会——的判断,包括认为最安全的是1991冷战刚结束时这个结论。

The bulletin’s scientists did not seem unduly alarmed in 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which, along with the early 1980s, was one of the moments when the United States and the Soviet Union came closest to catastrophic blows.

在古巴导弹危机爆发的1962年,该公报的科学家似乎并没有太过担忧。那一年,连同80年代初,属于美国和苏联离灾难性的动武最近的时期。

“One of the things about the clock is that it doesn’t change in response to individual events,” Lawrence M. Krauss, a cosmologist at Arizona State University and a member of the board, said in a phone interview on Thursday. “It’s really hard to compare, in an absolute sense, today to 1953. More important is whether the clock is closer to or farther from midnight? Is this year more dangerous than last?”

“这个时钟的特点之一是,它不会因为单独的事件而发生变化,”亚利桑那州立大学(Arizona State University)的宇宙学专家,同时也是该委员会成员的劳伦斯·M·克劳斯(Lawrence M. Krauss)周四接受电话采访时说。“真的很难拿现在和1953年进行绝对的比较。更重要的是时钟离午夜更近了还是更远了?今年是不是比去年更危险?”

Mr. Krauss acknowledged that in the “fake news” era, some critics were likely to accuse the scientists of having a political agenda.

克劳斯承认,在“假新闻”时代,一些批评人士可能会指责科学家有政治目的。

“People can say it’s a scam, but the point of this is to encourage public discussion,” he said. “What you’re trying to do is get people to act.” He said the clock “captures, for one day, deep existential threats, that for most of the rest of the year aren’t talked about.”

“人们可以说这是骗人的,但这件事的意义就在于鼓励公众讨论,”他说。“你努力在做的是让人们行动起来。”他说,末日时钟“在一天里反映深层次的生存威胁,这些在一年中的其他大部分时候无人谈及”。

Beatrice Fihn, executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which was awarded the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize for its work on a treaty that was completed last July, said the advance of the Doomsday Clock was “obviously deeply concerning and worrying and reflects where we are today.”

凭借在去年7月达成的一项条约中做出的贡献,国际废除核武器运动(International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons)获得了2017年诺贝尔和平奖,该组织总干事贝亚特丽斯·费恩(Beatrice Fihn)说,末日时钟被拨快“显然令人深感关切和担忧,反映了我们今天所处的形势”。

Speaking by phone from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ms. Fihn added: “The risks for nuclear use have increased exceptionally these last years, so of course, doing nothing is not an option.” Without disarmament, she said, “these weapons will be used.”

正在瑞士达沃斯参加世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的她在电话上补充说:“过去几年使用核武器的风险显著增加,所以无动于衷必然不可取。”她说,只要不进行核裁军,“就会有人使用这些武器。”

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