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特朗普的第一年

更新时间:2018-1-23 8:19:00 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Year One in Donald Trump’s World
特朗普的第一年

RAMALLAH, West Bank — Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, finally lost it this month. After a year of bamboozling signals from President Trump, including a cordial White House meeting last May followed by a blowup in Bethlehem weeks later, Abbas dismissed Trump’s peace efforts as the “slap of the century.” He ruled out American mediation.

约旦河西岸拉姆安拉——这个月,巴勒斯坦总统马哈茂德·阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)终于忍无可忍了。一年来,特朗普总统一直在发送令人困惑的信号,比如去年5月在白宫举行了一次热情友好的会议,几周后又在伯利恒大发雷霆。如今,阿巴斯把特朗普的和平努力斥为“世纪耳光”。他不再考虑美国的调停。

He called the American ambassador to Israel an “offensive human being” and pronounced the Oslo Accords dead. His tirade was as much an expression of Palestinian impotence as resolve. All Abbas has left is words. Still, it was a striking requiem for the Israeli-Palestinian “ultimate deal” that Trump promised.

他把美国驻以色列大使称为“讨厌的人”,并宣布奥斯陆协议已死。他的激烈抨击既表现出决心,也显示出巴勒斯坦的无能。阿巴斯也只能嘴上说说了。然而这对特朗普承诺的巴以“终极协议”来说依然是一曲惊人的安魂曲。

So it goes with a president whose foreign policy watchword is “incoherence,” when it’s not outright indecency of the “shithole” variety. Trump has honed offensiveness to a fine art. A diplomatic deal is built with stubborn persistence, not conjured through insult. Only the genius in chief can know how it made sense, a year into Jared Kushner’s Middle Eastern diplomatic labors and before they had yielded a peace plan, to torpedo his efforts.

所以说,这位总统的外交政策箴言就是“不连贯”,虽说它不像“粪坑”这类言辞那样,显然很不体面。特朗普已经把冒犯打磨为一种精致的艺术。外交协议应该建立在顽固的坚持之上,而不是出人意料地通过侮辱创造出来。只有这位天才统帅自己才知道,在贾里德·库什纳(Jared Kushner)进行了一年的中东外交工作之后,不等制定出一项和平计划就彻底破坏他的努力,这样做到底有什么意义。

That is what Trump’s recognition last month of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and subsequent tweeted boast that he’d taken Jerusalem “off the table,” achieved. It was a provocation. To address Jerusalem, city of passions, with such truculence was to invite disaster, as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis tried to impress on a president captive to his impulses.

上月特朗普承认耶路撒冷是以色列的首都,后来又发推得意地表示耶路撒冷的问题“不容谈判”,这就是他会得到的结果。这是一种挑衅。耶路撒冷是一座充满激情的城市,要用这样好斗的态度来解决它的问题,只会招来灾祸,国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)和国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯(James Mattis)也试图让这位爱冲动的总统明白这一点。

The Palestinians have seen the president in all his facets. “Trump was so agitated at the Bethlehem meeting, shouting, accusing Abbas of incitement, saying Abbas was not the nice man he’d believed — it was awful,” Muhammad Shtayyeh, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, told me. “But at their next meeting in September, things were fine. Then, all of a sudden, we get this unilateral Jerusalem measure that sabotages everything. So, for us, what sort of message is the president sending?”

巴勒斯坦人已经看到了总统的每一面。“在伯利恒会议上特朗普如此激动,大喊大叫,指责阿巴斯煽动,说阿巴斯不是他以为的那个体面人——真是太糟糕了,”法塔赫中央委员会成员穆罕默德·什塔叶(Muhammad Shtayyeh)告诉我。“但在他们9月举行的下一次会议上,一切正常。然后,突然之间,我们得到了这个单方面的耶路撒冷方案,它破坏了一切。那么,对我们来说,总统到底发出了什么样的信号呢?”

One year into the Trump presidency, a lot of people around the world are asking that question. A nation of erratic disruption and “America First” belligerence has supplanted the underwriter of the post-1945 global order. The multilateral institutions of that order — from the United Nations to NATO — are mistrusted by the president. A void has opened up. Neither chaos nor China has quite filled it yet. In Gramsci’s words, written between the 20th century’s two global conflagrations, “The old is dying, and the new cannot be born.”

特朗普上任一年之后,世界各地的很多人都在问这个问题。这个国家动荡不安,信奉好斗的“美国优先”,它取代了那个1945年后全球秩序的担保者。所有维持这一秩序的多边机构——从联合国到北约——都不被总统所信任。一个真空已经出现。现在会填补它的既不是混乱,也不是中国。用葛兰西(Gramsci)在20世纪两次全球大战之间写下的话来说,“老的已经行将就木,新的还无法出生。”

Trump’s universe is a place of dread, not deals. If there was no catastrophe in the first year, the possibility of one in the second was ratcheted up, from North Korea to Iran. In the National Security Strategy published in December, the subheading under “Diplomacy and Statecraft” is “Competitive Diplomacy” — not cooperation. Money is apparently no object to ensure “weapons systems that clearly overmatch” in “lethality.” Diplomacy, by contrast, requires “efficient use of limited resources.” The evisceration of the State Department and big increases in military budgets reflect Trump’s mind-set.

特朗普的宇宙里充斥着惧怕,而不是交易。如果他上任后的第一年没有发生灾难,那么在第二年里,从朝鲜到伊朗,发生灾难的可能性已经出现提升。在12月发表的《国家安全战略报告》(National Security Strategy)中,“外交与治国方案”下的小标题是“竞争性外交”——而不是合作外交。要保证“武器系统”在“杀伤力”方面“明显超过对手”,花钱显然不在话下。相反,外交方面则需要“有效利用有限的资源”。对国务院预算的削减和军费预算的大幅增加反映了特朗普的思维。

His nuclear brinkmanship with North Korea seems to involve a belief that nuclear war might just be feasible as a means, short of a blood bath, to bloody Kim Jong-un’s nose. That — and I’m being charitable — is hard to imagine. Limited nuclear war is a near oxymoron. It is not inconceivable, however, especially if Trump begins to feel cornered by the Russia investigation and in need of a foreign policy surprise. New lower-yield nuclear weapons, whose threshold for use might be lower, are contemplated in the Pentagon’s draft Nuclear Posture Review. The surprise could also come with Iran. The president’s foolish undermining of the Iran nuclear deal is perverse. If North Korea could have been stopped short of a bomb, as Iran has been, even Trump’s White House would be happy.

他对朝鲜采取的核边缘战略似乎表明,他相信核战争可能是一种可行的手段,不用血流成河,就能给金正恩迎头痛击。这种情况——我厚道地说——很难想象。有限的核战争近乎一种矛盾修辞。然而,这并不是匪夷所思的,特别是如果特朗普开始对通俄门的调查感到不满,并且需要在外交政策方面带来惊人之举。五角大楼的《核态势评估报告》(Nuclear Posture Review)草案考虑了新的低当量核武器,其使用门槛可能较低。伊朗方面也可能带来意外。总统愚蠢地破坏伊朗核协议是非常任性的行为。如果朝鲜能像伊朗那样,在造出炸弹前停止核计划,就连特朗普的白宫都会为此感到高兴的。

But Trump is deaf to reason. He talks of revived American greatness. Yet, as president, he has not set foot in California, where American technology and innovation create companies that capture the world’s imagination. All that interests him is that Californians tend to dislike him. Disrespect, whether domestic or foreign, is intolerable to him.

但是特朗普听不进任何道理。他谈到复兴美国的伟大荣光。然而,上任以来,他还没有去过加利福尼亚州,在那里,美国的科技与创新缔造了众多吸引全世界遐想的公司。他关心的只是加利福尼亚人大都不喜欢他。他不能容忍丝毫不敬,无论是来自国内还是国外。

A global power shift long preceded Trump; China’s share of global output rose to about 15 percent from less than 4 percent in the past two decades. The Obama presidency talked down American greatness. In Syria, Barack Obama’s abdication was complete. But through dereliction, President Trump has fast-forwarded this American retreat.

早在特朗普上台之前,全球的权力转移就已经开始;中国在全球的产出份额从20年前的4%以下,上升到15%左右。奥巴马总统任内,美国的伟大荣光已经减色。在叙利亚,贝拉克·奥巴马的退出战略已经完成。但是,特朗普总统以不负责任的方式加速了美国的撤退。

Last September, Trump met with Emmanuel Macron, the young president of France, who, unlike Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, has a relationship with him. Syria came up. Trump said he’d hit Syria with 50 missiles after the chemical-weapons infringement. “Didn’t I?” he asked his aides who, in cowering unison, confirmed he had. Iran came up. Macron, like other European leaders, is concerned that the nuclear deal Trump opposes be upheld. Trump was uninterested. He veered off on a bizarre tangent about the trade France does with Iran.

去年9月,特朗普会见了法国年轻的总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)。与德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)不同,马克龙与特朗普有些交情。谈到叙利亚问题时,特朗普表示,在叙利亚违反化学武器规定后,他用50枚导弹打击了它。“是这样吧?”他问助手们。助手们畏畏缩缩地一致证实的确如此。在提到伊朗问题时,马克龙和其他欧洲领导人一样,认为特朗普反对的核协议应该得到维护。特朗普对此不感兴趣。他突然奇怪地转移话题,谈起法国与伊朗的贸易。

It’s tough to do business with Trump — not least for those who serve him. This month offered the extraordinary spectacle of the United States ambassador to London, Woody Johnson, rebuffing Trump over the new American Embassy that the president had described as being in an “off location” and costing $1.2 billion. It didn’t “cost the U.S. taxpayer a cent,” Johnson retorted. Trump was really looking for a reason to cancel a British trip that would have provoked protests. It has come to this: an American president who’s unwelcome in London!

跟特朗普打交道很难——尤其是对那些为他服务的人来说。本月,美国驻伦敦大使伍迪·约翰逊(Woody Johnson)上演了惊人的一幕,他断然否认特朗普对美国新使馆的陈述——总统称该使馆“位置偏远”,耗资12亿美元。约翰逊反驳称,该使馆没有“花美国纳税人一分钱”。特朗普实际上是想找个借口,取消可能引发抗议的英国之行。已经到了这种地步:一位美国总统在伦敦不受欢迎!

The unthinkable is now commonplace. Perhaps that’s what Trump wanted above all: to shake up Western complacency over how the world could, and could not, be run. That’s not a bad thing. The anger he intuited among the losers from globalization was real. His words have been worse than his deeds. The global economy is purring. The terrorists of the Islamic State have taken a devastating blow. In a best-case scenario, his wild North Korean threats are just a bad-cop show.

不可思议的事情现在已经司空见惯。或许这正是特朗普最想要的:动摇西方对如何治理世界,以及不能如何治理世界的自满情绪。这不是件坏事。他凭直觉感受到全球化进程中的失败者的愤怒,这种愤怒是真实的。他的话语比他的行为更糟糕。全球经济正在复苏。伊斯兰国的恐怖分子遭到了毁灭性打击。在最好的情况下,他对朝鲜的疯狂威胁只是一场糟糕的警察秀。

But something terrible, and perhaps irreparable, has happened. The idea of America has been sullied. It has fallen victim to Trump’s untruth, indecency, racism and contempt for the values without which American greatness is inconceivable. The president is at home with despots because he sees himself in them.

但是,某种可怕的、也许是不可挽回的事发生了。美国的理念被玷污了。它成了特朗普的谎言、下流行为、种族主义以及对价值观的蔑视的牺牲品。如果没有价值观,美国的伟大荣光是不可想象的。总统和专制者打成一片,因为他觉得自己是他们中的一员。

Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to Washington, told me: “I cannot explain to my 13-year-old daughter, who was born in the United States, that for her, President Trump should be the symbol of the values we stand for: human dignity, personal freedom and so on. A fundamental anchor has been lost.”

前德国驻华盛顿大使沃尔夫冈·伊申格尔(Wolfgang Ischinger)对我说:“我无法跟我出生在美国的13岁女儿说,特朗普总统象征着是我们所支持的价值观:人的尊严和个人自由等等。我们失去了一个重要的精神支柱。”

The disarray Trump has engendered reflects the degree to which he has turned the meaning of the word “America” on its head. He has empowered bigots, thugs, bullies, racists, nationalists and nativists the world over.

特朗普引发的混乱反映出,他已经在很大程度上颠覆了“美国”这个词的含义。他为全世界的偏执狂、恶棍、霸凌者、种族主义者、民族主义者和本土主义者增添了力量。

In Israel, I asked Hannah Pollin-Galay, a senior lecturer in Yiddish literature at Tel Aviv University, what she thought of Trump’s Jerusalem declaration. “It destroyed hope on both sides,” she said. “It gives right-wing nationalists the stage and sense they are right. Look! The rightist strategy works. You are rewarded for not listening to the Palestinians, for not sharing holy ground. That is disastrous, the most dangerous thing imaginable.”

在以色列,我询问特拉维夫大学(Tel Aviv University)意第绪语文学高级讲师汉娜·波林-加莱(Hannah Pollin-Galay)对特朗普的耶路撒冷宣言有何看法。“它毁掉了双方的希望,”她说,“它给右翼民族主义者提供了舞台,让他们感觉自己是对的。看!右翼策略起作用了。他们没有倾听巴勒斯坦人的意见,没有分享圣地,却得到了回报。那是灾难性的,是你能想到的最危险的事。”

Gramsci thought the perilous interregnum between world orders was a time of “the most varied morbid symptoms.” Trump’s second year will show whether those he has unleashed, and nurses within himself, can still be contained short of what he calls “fire and fury.”

葛兰西认为,世界平稳秩序之间的危险过渡期是“病态症状最多”的时期。特朗普任期的第二年将展现出,他释放的和内心积聚的病态情绪能否得到控制,而不致出现他所说的“炮火与怒火”这样的情况。

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