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朝韩局势缓和颠覆美国对朝政策

更新时间:2018-1-19 16:16:37 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Olympic Détente Upends U.S. Strategy on North Korea
朝韩局势缓和颠覆美国对朝政策

SEOUL, South Korea — North and South Korea reached an agreement Wednesday for their athletes to march together under one flag at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics next month, a powerful gesture of reconciliation that further complicates President Donald Trump’s strategy for dealing with the nuclear-armed government of Kim Jong Un.

韩国首尔——朝鲜和韩国周三达成协议,两国运动员将在下月举行的冬季奥运会开幕式上在同一个旗帜下入场。这个强有力的和解表示,让唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统应对拥有核武器的金正恩政府的战略变得更加复杂。

South Korea, the host of the games, said it hoped a partnership in sports could contribute to a political thaw after years of high tensions on the Korean Peninsula. It came even as the prospect of war over the North’s nuclear and ballistic missile tests has loomed large.

冬奥会主办国韩国表示,它希望这个体育方面的合作,能够在朝鲜半岛经历多年的紧张局势之后,促进政治上的解冻。尽管朝鲜的核武器和弹道导弹试验让战争前景逼进,双方仍达成了这项协议。

For the White House, however, the budding détente scrambles its strategy of pressuring the North, with sanctions and threats of military action, to give up its nuclear arsenal. This latest gesture of unity, the most dramatic in a decade, could add to fears in Washington that Pyongyang is making progress on a more far-reaching agenda.

但对白宫来说,崭露头角的缓和局势打乱了美国向朝鲜施压的战略。美国想利用制裁和军事行动的威胁,迫使朝鲜放弃其核武库。朝韩双方新近的联合姿态是十年来最为突然的,这可能会加剧华盛顿的担忧,认为平壤正在一项更为深远的议程上取得进展。

White House officials warn that the ultimate goal of Kim is to evict U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula and to reunify the two Koreas under a single flag. They have cited that long-held goal to buttress their argument that Kim cannot be deterred peacefully as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War.

白宫官员警告说,金正恩的最终目标是将美国军队赶出朝鲜半岛,在一个旗帜下将朝鲜与韩国统一起来。白宫官员引用这个长期目标来支持他们的论点,认为与冷战时代的苏联不同,不能用和平的手段阻止金正恩。

While a onetime Olympics ceremony is hardly a step toward reunification, the image of athletes marching behind a “unified Korea” flag is a symbolic manifestation of what worries Trump’s aides. And the prospect of crowds from North and South Korea cheering together would be a striking contrast to the threats of war from Trump.

尽管在一次奥运会开幕式上的做法并不构成迈向统一的一步,但两国运动员在“朝鲜半岛”旗帜下入场的画面,是让特朗普的助手担心的象征。朝韩两国人民一起欢呼雀跃的情景,也会与特朗普的战争威胁形成鲜明对照。

The White House this week welcomed the announcement but played down its significance, noting that it was not the first time that athletes from the two Koreas had competed together.

本周,白宫虽然对韩朝声明表示欢迎,但淡化了其重要性。白宫指出,这并不是两国运动员第一次一起参加比赛。

“Let’s hope that the experience gives the North Korean athletes a small taste of freedom and that it rubs off,” said Michael Anton, a spokesman for the National Security Council. “North Korean propaganda is in a category all its own,” he added. “It is not surprising that North Korea is sending more cheerleaders and musicians than athletes.”

“我们希望,这个经历让朝鲜运动员尝到一点自由的滋味,对他们有所影响,”美国国家安全委员会(National Security Council)发言人迈克尔·安东(Michael Anton)说。“朝鲜的宣传举世无双,”他补充说。“朝鲜这次派遣的啦啦队和乐队的人数比运动员还多,这并不让人吃惊。”

That emphasis on propaganda, other officials said, was in keeping with North Korea’s longer-term goal of reunification.

其他官员表示,这种对宣传的强调符合朝鲜要实现统一的长期目标。

In addition to marching together, the two Koreas will field a joint women’s hockey team at the games, which begin on Feb. 9 in Pyeongchang. It will be the first time the two countries have combined for an Olympics, and the first unified team of any kind since their athletes played together in a table tennis championship and a youth soccer tournament in 1991.

冬奥会将于2月9日在平昌开幕,朝韩两国除了一起入场外,还将组建一支有两国运动员的女子冰球队。这将是两国首次联合组队参加奥运会,也是自从1991年双方的运动员一起参加乒乓球锦标赛和青年足球锦标赛以来的首次体育合作。

The Olympic agreement could bolster President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, who has been pushing for dialogue with the North. “This will be a great opportunity to thaw the frozen relations,” he said during a visit to the training camp for South Korean athletes.

这个就奥运会达成的协议可能会加强韩国总统文在寅的地位,他一直在推动与朝鲜的对话。“这将是解冻两国关系的大好时机,”他在视察韩国运动员训练营时说。

“If we unify our team with the North’s, it won’t necessarily improve our team’s strength very much,” Moon said. “It will even require extra efforts to build up teamwork with the North Korean players. But if the two Koreas unify their teams and play a great match together, that itself will be long remembered as a historic moment.”

“如果我们的运动员队伍与朝鲜的联合起来,未必能提高我们队伍的实力,”文在寅说。“甚至需要额外的努力,让我们的队员能与朝鲜的队员合作。但是,如果韩朝两国能把运动员队伍联合起来,参加一场重大比赛,这本身就是一个历史性的时刻。”

Few expected that the breakthrough in sports diplomacy would lead to a broader relaxation of the decades-old standoff over the North’s nuclear weapon programs. But it provided a welcome reprieve for South Koreans who have grown alarmed and weary over the tensions and relentless talk of war.

几乎没有人预测,这次体育外交上的突破会带来更大范围的缓和。有关朝鲜核武器计划的僵局已持续了数十年。但这对韩国人来说是一个受欢迎的暂缓,他们对紧张局势、以及无休止的战争言论已感到厌倦和疲劳。

Trump has threatened the North with “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” should it put the security of Americans and their allies at risk, while Kim has called Trump a lunatic.

特朗普曾威胁说,如果朝鲜让美国及其盟友的安全面临危险,朝鲜会遭到“全世界从未见过的炮火和怒火”,而金正恩则称特朗普为疯子。

Despite its wariness, the White House has been careful not to dismiss the talks between the North and the South, provided the two sides stick to issues like security at the Olympics. Trump said on Wednesday that he would be open to talks with Kim himself, though he questioned the value of such a meeting.

尽管白宫有些担心,但一直小心翼翼地不批评韩朝谈判,前提是双方只讨论奥运会安保等问题。特朗普周三表示,他愿意与金正恩本人进行会谈,不过他对这种会谈的价值表示怀疑。

“I’d sit down, but I’m not sure that sitting down will solve the problem,” Trump said in an interview with Reuters.

“我愿意坐下来谈,但我不知道坐下来谈是否能解决问题,”特朗普在接受路透社采访时说。

He warned that while North Korea was not yet capable of delivering a ballistic missile to the United States, “they’re close — and they get closer every day.” In the interview, Trump was uncharacteristically critical of Russia, saying it had weakened the global sanctions against North Korea, even as China was doing more.

特朗普警告说,虽然朝鲜还不具有向美国发射弹道导弹的能力,但“他们已经接近这种能力——而且每天都在缩短距离。”特朗普在采访中一反常态地批评了俄罗斯,称就在中国采取更多行动的时候,俄罗斯却在削弱对朝鲜的全球制裁。

For the United States, the fear has been that North Korea’s gestures will drive a wedge between it and its ally, South Korea. So far, the two allies have stayed in sync, said Daniel R. Russel, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs in the Obama administration.

美国的担心是,朝鲜作出的姿态会在美国及其盟友韩国之间制造隔阂。不过,这两个盟友到目前为止一直仍保持同步,曾在奥巴马政府负责东亚事务的助理国务卿丹尼尔·R·拉塞尔(Daniel R. Russel)说。

“But it will be harder and harder to insure that South Korea and the U.S. stay closely aligned,” he said. “You have a fundamental tension between a progressive government in Seoul and a hawkish government in Washington.”

“但是,确保韩国与美国保持密切一致将会变得越来越困难,”拉塞尔说。“首尔的进步派政府与华盛顿的鹰派政府之间,存在着根本性的紧张关系。”

Moon proposed in June that the two Koreas form a unified team for the Olympics, but the suggestion was not taken seriously until Kim used his New Year’s Day speech to propose dialogue with the South and to discuss his country’s participation in the games.

文在寅曾在去年6月建议,朝鲜和韩国联合组织一支代表团参加奥运会,但在金正恩在其新年致辞中提出与韩国对话、讨论朝鲜参加奥运会的问题之前,人们并没有严肃对待这个建议。

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