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更新时间:2018-1-16 8:30:15 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Military Quietly Prepares for a Last Resort: War With North Korea

WASHINGTON — Across the military, officers and troops are quietly preparing for a war they hope will not come.


At Fort Bragg in North Carolina last month, a mix of 48 Apache gunships and Chinook cargo helicopters took off in an exercise that practiced moving troops and equipment under live artillery fire to assault targets. Two days later, in the skies above Nevada, 119 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division parachuted out of C-17 military cargo planes under cover of darkness in an exercise that simulated a foreign invasion.

上月在北卡罗来纳州的布拉格堡(Fort Bragg),48架阿帕奇(Apache)武装直升机和奇努克(Chinook)货运直升机进行了一次演习,练习在实弹攻击下转移部队和装备,攻击目标。两天后,在内华达州上空一场模拟外国入侵的演习中,来自美国陆军第82空降师(82nd Airborne Division)的119名士兵在黑暗的掩护下从C-17军用运输机上跳伞降落。

Next month, at Army posts across the United States, more than 1,000 reserve soldiers will practice how to set up mobilization centers that move military forces overseas in a hurry. And beginning next month with the Winter Olympics in the South Korean town of Pyeongchang, the Pentagon plans to send more Special Operations troops to the Korean Peninsula, an initial step toward what some officials said ultimately could be the formation of a Korea-based task force similar to the types that are fighting in Iraq and Syria. Others said the plan was strictly related to counterterrorism efforts.


In the world of the U.S. military, where contingency planning is a mantra drummed into the psyche of every officer, the moves are ostensibly part of standard Defense Department training and troop rotations. But the scope and timing of the exercises suggest a renewed focus on getting the country’s military prepared for what could be on the horizon with North Korea.


Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both argue forcefully for using diplomacy to address Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. A war with North Korea, Mattis said in August, would be “catastrophic.” Still, about two dozen current and former Pentagon officials and senior commanders said in interviews that the exercises largely reflected the military’s response to orders from Mattis and service chiefs to be ready for any possible military action on the Korean Peninsula.

美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和参谋长联席会议主席小约瑟夫·F·邓福德上将(Joseph F. Dunford Jr.)都强烈主张利用外交手段解决平壤的核野心问题。马蒂斯在8月说,与朝鲜开战将是“灾难性的”。但二十多名现任和前任五角大楼官员及高级将领在采访中表示,马蒂斯和现役将领亦下令为可能会在朝鲜半岛采取的一切军事行动做好准备,演习主要反映了军方对此做出的反应。

President Donald Trump’s words have left senior military leaders and rank-and-file troops convinced that they need to accelerate their contingency planning.


In perhaps the most incendiary exchange, in a September speech at the United Nations, Trump vowed to “totally destroy North Korea” if it threatened the United States, and derided the rogue nation’s leader, Kim Jong Un, as “Rocket Man.” In response, Kim said he would deploy the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” against the United States, and described Trump as a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard.”

去年9月在联合国发表演讲时,特朗普誓言如果朝鲜威胁到美国,便会“彻底摧毁朝鲜”,并嘲讽这个流氓国家的领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)是“火箭人”。金正恩回应称,他将对美国采取“史上最高级别的超强硬应对措施”,并形容特朗普是“精神错乱的美国老糊涂”。这或许是最能挑动事端的一场口水战。

Trump’s rhetoric has since cooled after a fresh attempt at détente between Pyongyang and Seoul. In an interview last week with The Wall Street Journal, Trump was quoted as saying, “I probably have a very good relationship with Kim Jong Un,” despite their mutual public insults. But the president said Sunday that The Journal had misquoted him, and that he had actually said “I’d probably have” a good relationship if he wanted one.

自从平壤和首尔重新尝试缓和关系后,特朗普的言论冷静下来了。上周《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)引用特朗普在接受该报采访时的话,称特朗普表示,尽管他和金正恩公开辱骂对方,但是“我和金正恩的关系可能挺好的”。但到了周日,特朗普说《华尔街日报》对他的话引用有误,他说的其实是,如果金正恩愿意,“我可能可以”同他建立良好的关系。

A false alarm in Hawaii on Saturday that set off about 40 minutes of panic after a state emergency response employee mistakenly sent out a text alert warning of an incoming ballistic missile attack underscored Americans’ anxiety about North Korea.


After 16 years of fighting insurgents in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, U.S. commanding generals worry that the military is better prepared for going after stateless groups of militants than it is for its own conventional mission of facing down heavily fortified land powers that have their own formidable militaries and air defenses.


The exercise at Fort Bragg was part of one of the largest air assault exercises in recent years. The practice run at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada used double the number of cargo planes for paratroopers as was used in past exercises.

布拉格堡演习属于近年来规模最大的一场空袭演练的一部分。在内华达内里斯空军基地(Nellis Air Force Base)的演习中,空降兵使用的运输机数量是以往演习的两倍。

The Army Reserve exercise planned for next month will breathe new life into mobilization centers that have been largely dormant as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have wound down. And while the military has deployed Special Operations reaction forces to previous large global events, like the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, those units usually numbered around 100 — far fewer than some officials said could be sent for the Olympics in South Korea. Others discounted that possibility.

计划于下个月进行的陆军预备役部队(The Army Reserve)演习,将给此前因伊拉克和阿富汗战争慢慢平息而基本搁置不用的动员中心带来新的生机。虽然军方会在2014年巴西奥运会等大型国际赛事上部署特种作战反应部队,但这些部队通常只有100人左右——远远少于一些官员所说的将派往韩国奥运会的人数。还有一些人则不认为存在这种可能性。

At a wide-ranging meeting at his headquarters on Jan. 2, Gen. Tony Thomas, the head of the Special Operations Command in Tampa, Florida, warned the 200 civilians and service members in the audience that more Special Forces personnel might have to shift to the Korea theater from the Middle East in May or June, if tensions escalate on the peninsula. The general’s spokesman, Capt. Jason Salata, confirmed the account provided to The New York Times by someone in the audience but said Thomas made it clear that no decisions had been made.

在司令部1月2日的一次涵盖多部门的会议上,佛罗里达州坦帕市特种作战司令部(Special Operations Command)主脑托尼·托马斯上将(Gen. Tony Thomas)提醒在场的200位市民和军人,如果朝鲜半岛紧张形势加剧,5月或6月时将会有更多特种部队人员被从中东地区调往朝鲜半岛战区。上将的发言人贾森·萨拉塔中校(Cmdr. Jason Salata)证实了某在场人士向《纽约时报》提供的信息,但表示托马斯曾明确表明并未作出任何决定。

The Army chief of staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, in several recent meetings at the Pentagon, has brought up two historic U.S. military disasters as a warning of where a lack of preparedness can lead.

陆军参谋长马克·A·米莱上将(Gen. Mark A. Milley)在五角大楼近期的几场会议上都提及了美国两次历史性的军事灾难,以警告人们缺少准备的后果。

Military officials said Milley has cited the ill-fated Battle of the Kasserine Pass during World War II, when unprepared U.S. troops were outfoxed and then pummeled by the forces of Field Marshal Erwin Rommel of Germany. Milley has also recently mentioned Task Force Smith, the poorly equipped, understrength unit that was mauled by North Korean troops in 1950 during the Korean War.

军方官员称米莱以二战期间结局悲惨的卡塞林战役为例,当时,毫无防备的美国部队中了德国陆军元帅埃尔温·隆美尔(Erwin Rommel)的计,进而遭到沉重打击。米莱最近还提到了史密斯特遣队(Task Force Smith),1950年,这支装备简陋、兵员不足的部队在朝鲜战争中被朝鲜军队重创。

In meeting after meeting, the officials said, Milley has likened the two U.S. defeats to what he warns could happen if the military does not get ready for a possible war with North Korea. He has urged senior Army leaders to get units into shape, and fretted about a loss of what he has called muscle memory: how to fight a large land war, including one in which an established adversary is able to bring sophisticated air defenses, tanks, infantry, naval power and even cyberweapons into battle.


Some officials in the White House have argued that a targeted, limited strike could be launched with minimal, if any, blowback against South Korea — a premise Mattis views with skepticism, according to people familiar with his thinking.


But for Mattis, the planning serves to placate Trump. Effectively, analysts said, it alerts the president to how seriously the Pentagon views the threat and protects Mattis from suggestions that he is out of step with Trump.


“The military’s job is to be fully ready for whatever contingencies might be on the horizon,” said Michèle A. Flournoy, a top Pentagon official in the Obama administration and co-founder of WestExec Advisors, a strategic consultancy in Washington.

“军方的任务是为任何有可能出现的突发事件做好万全的准备,”奥巴马政府的五角大楼高级官员、华盛顿战略咨询公司WestExec Advisors的共同创始人米歇尔·A·弗卢努伊(Michèle A. Flournoy)说。

“Even if no decision on North Korea has been made and no order has been given,” Flournoy said, “the need to be ready for the contingency that is top of mind for the president and his national security team would motivate commanders to use planned exercise opportunities to enhance their preparation, just in case.”


In the case of the 82nd Airborne exercise in Nevada last month, for instance, soldiers practiced moving paratroopers on helicopters and flew artillery, fuel and ammunition deep behind what was designated as enemy lines. The maneuvers were aimed at forcing an enemy to fight on different fronts early in combat.


Officials said maneuvers practiced in the exercise, called Panther Blade, could be used anywhere, not just on the Korean Peninsula. “Operation Panther Blade is about building global readiness,” said Lt. Col. Joe Buccino, a public affairs officer with the 82nd Airborne. “An air assault and deep attack of this scale is very complex and requires dynamic synchronization of assets over time and space.”

官员们表示,演习中采用的“豹刃”(Panther Blade)战术可在任何地方使用,不仅是在朝鲜半岛。“豹刃行动旨在建立全球战备状态,”第82空降师公共事务官乔·布奇诺中校(Joe Buccino)说,“这种规模的空中打击和纵深攻击非常复杂,需要在时间和空间上实现军力的动态同步。”

Another exercise, called Bronze Ram, is being coordinated by the shadowy Joint Special Operations Command, officials said, and mimics other training scenarios that mirror current events.

官员们表示,另一项名为“铜羊”(Bronze Ram)的演习正在由神秘的联合特种作战司令部(Joint Special Operations Command)协调,会模拟反映当前事件的其他训练场景。

This year’s exercise, one of many that concentrate on threats from across the world, will focus extensively on underground operations and involve working in chemically contaminated environments that might be present in North Korea. It will also home in on the Special Operations Command’s mission of countering weapons of mass destruction.


Beyond Bronze Ram, highly classified Special Operations exercises in the United States, including those with scenarios to seize unsecured nuclear weapons or conduct clandestine paratrooper drops, have for several months reflected a possible North Korea contingency, military officials said, without providing details, because of operational sensitivity.


Air Force B-1 bombers flying from Guam have been seen regularly over the Korean Peninsula amid the escalating tensions with Pyongyang — running regular training flights with Japanese and South Korean fighter jets that often provoke North Korea’s ire. B-52 bombers based in Louisiana are expected to join the B-1s stationed on Guam this month, adding to the long-range aerial firepower.


Pentagon officials said last week that three B-2 bombers and their crews had arrived in Guam from their base in Missouri.