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金正恩向韩国示好,是善意还是策略?

更新时间:2018-1-10 23:00:07 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Moves Toward Détente With Seoul
金正恩向韩国示好,是善意还是策略?

WASHINGTON — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, spent 2017 rattling the world with nuclear and long-range missile tests and has promised more of the same in 2018. So it was a surprise when he deftly seized on the Winter Olympics on Tuesday to turn toward diplomacy with Seoul, playing the part of the statesman even while accentuating fractures in the seven-decade alliance between South Korea and the United States.

华盛顿——朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jung-un)在2017年用核武器和远程导弹试验让全世界坐立不安,他还担保2018年会进行更多此类行动。因此,当他于周二巧妙地利用冬奥会转向与韩国开展外交活动时,外界颇为意外。通过此举,他展现了政治家的手腕,同时又凸显出韩国与美国长达70年的盟友关系中的裂痕。

After his outreach to Seoul on New Year’s Day, Kim agreed to send a small team to compete in the Olympics next month when the Winter Games open in the South Korean town of Pyeongchang. That was followed by an announcement about resumption of military-to-military talks between the two countries — without the United States.

继元旦当天向首尔表态后,金正恩同意派一支小型代表团,参加下月在韩国平昌举行的冬季奥运会。之后,两国宣布恢复没有美国参与的军方对话。

All this is a relief to South Korea’s leader, President Moon Jae-in, who feared the North would find a way — missile launches, terrorism, a nuclear test — to cast a pall over a sports event meant to highlight the South’s emergence as one of the world’s most dynamic economies.

这一切让韩国领导人文在寅(Moon Jae-in)如释重负。冬奥会旨在彰显韩国已成为世界上最具活力的经济体之一;他本来担心朝鲜会通过导弹发射、恐怖主义与核试验等手段,为这场体育赛事蒙上阴影。

Few in Seoul or Washington believe Kim, though an avid sports fan, is motivated solely by the Olympic spirit. The Winter Games also present him with an ideal opportunity to throw a wrench in President Donald Trump’s threats of military action if the North does not agree to give up its nuclear program.

虽然金正恩是一个狂热的体育爱好者,但在首尔和华盛顿,几乎没人相信他只是受了奥林匹克精神的感召。冬奥会也给他提供了一个打击唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁的绝佳机会。特朗普曾表示,如果朝鲜不同意放弃核计划,就会采取军事行动。

Along the way, Kim is looking to get some relief from sanctions that are beginning to bite.

金正恩一直希望减轻即将造成严重影响的制裁。

“This was a very smart move and underscores how we are in a long-standing habit of underestimating the North,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute who has spent decades studying North Korea. “If they can punch a hole through the maximum-pressure coalition and it starts to leak, it gives them more room and more time to achieve their objective, which is all about the nuclear program.”

“这是一个非常聪明的举动,进一步表明我们长期以来惯于低估朝鲜,”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)研究员尼古拉斯·埃伯施塔特(Nicholas Eberstadt)说。他数十年来一直研究朝鲜问题。“如果能在压力最大的联盟中撕开一个口子,并且开口开始变大,他们就会有更多的空间和时间去实现自己的目标,他们的目标都是关于核计划的。”

It is a strategy meant to resonate with many South Korean progressives who argue that defusing tensions on the peninsula has to be Seoul’s top priority. And it pointedly excluded the United States.

朝鲜的策略意在引起韩国众多进步派人士的共鸣。这些人主张,缓和朝鲜半岛紧张局势必须成为首尔的头等大事。此外,它把美国明确排除在外。

By leaving bombast out of his speech last week and even appearing before the cameras in a Western-style suit and tie, Kim clearly wants to be seen as a statesman.

在上周的讲话中,金正恩没有说大话,甚至还以穿西装、打领带的西方式形象出现在镜头前。他显然希望被当作一名政治家看待。

Trump, who has promised to “totally destroy” the North if it puts the United States at risk, has already claimed credit for the new tone. The latest United Nations Security Council sanctions, issued last month, were intended to threaten the North’s energy supplies and its opportunities to earn hard currency. Both have fueled the North’s surprising economic growth.

特朗普曾经承诺,如果朝鲜令美国处于危险境地,他便会“彻底摧毁”朝鲜;如今,他已把金正恩的新口风归功于自己。联合国安理会上月发布最新制裁措施,意在威胁朝鲜的能源供应及获取硬通货的机会。二者都推动了朝鲜令人惊讶的经济增长。

What Kim is not discussing with the South is the future of his nuclear weapons and missile programs. Many experts fear that is exactly the point: Relief from tightening sanctions or threat of American attack may give his engineers time to perfect a warhead able to hit the continental United States.

金正恩没有同韩国讨论其核武器与导弹计划的未来。很多专家担心,这正是问题的关键所在:摆脱日渐加强的制裁或美国发动攻击的威胁,可能会让他的工程师有时间完善能够击中美国本土的弹头。

The evidence of that came on Tuesday when Ri Son Gwon, the chief North Korean delegate to the talks, protested when South Korea called for the resumption of denuclearization discussions, according to pool reports. And none are scheduled.

根据随行记者团的报道,周二出现的情况证明了这一点。当天,韩国呼吁恢复无核化谈判时,朝方代表团团长李善权(Ri Son-kwon)表示抗议。最终没有产生任何关于无核化谈判的方案。

To drive home the point Ri said, according to the same reports, “Our cutting-edge weapons, including our hydrogen bomb and intercontinental ballistic missiles, are not targeting our Korean brothers, but the United States.”

据相关报道称,李善权在阐明这一点时说,“我们的尖端武器,包括氢弹和洲际弹道导弹,不是针对我们朝鲜半岛上的兄弟的,而是针对美国的。”

Kim has made no secret of his determination to keep his nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. In his New Year’s speech, he described his country’s atomic arsenal as the only thing preventing the United States from starting a war on the Korean Peninsula, boasting of the “nuclear button” on his desk. That led to Trump’s retort that he has “a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

金正恩毫不掩饰自己保留核武器的决心和使用核武器的手段。在新年贺词中,金正恩称,只有朝鲜的核武库能够阻止美国在朝鲜半岛发动战争,并吹嘘“核按钮”就在他的办公桌上。这促使特朗普反唇相讥,声称自己的核按钮“比他的更大,更有威力,而且我的管用!”

The mine-is-bigger exchange obscured two more important elements of the speech. Kim told his people to brace themselves for the effects of sanctions, which have led to fuel shortages and significantly higher prices. It was the first admission that Trump’s campaign was getting to Kim.

这场“我更大”的争论,掩盖了金正恩讲话中两件更重要的事。首先,金正恩让朝鲜民众为制裁带来的影响做好准备。制裁已造成燃油短缺和大幅涨价。这是朝鲜首次承认特朗普的行动影响到了金正恩。

Kim also urged the South to break ranks with Washington on the issue of sanctions and begin talks about the Olympics. Moon has been worried about a North Korean disruption of the Winter Games, and his staff members told U.S. officials that South Korea wanted to suspend military exercises with the United States during the Olympics and find a role for the North, which won seven medals in the 2016 Summer Games in Rio de Janeiro.

其次,金正恩还敦促韩国在制裁问题上脱离华盛顿,并开始就奥运会同朝鲜举行会谈。文在寅一直担心朝鲜破坏此次冬奥会。他的工作人员对美国官员表示,韩国想在奥运会期间暂停与美国的军事演习,并为朝鲜在奥运会上谋求一席之地。在2016年里约热内卢的夏季奥运会上,朝鲜获得七枚奖牌。

Senior U.S. officials said they had no choice but to accede to Moon’s appeals. Trump agreed in a Jan. 4 phone call with Moon to suspend the military exercises, and said at Camp David over the weekend that “I’d like to see them getting involved in the Olympics and maybe things go from there.”

美国高级官员表示,他们别无选择,只能满足文在寅的提议。1月4日,特朗普在与文在寅通话时同意暂停军事演习,并于周末在戴维营表示,“我希望他们参加奥运会,情况也许会从那里发生转机。”

The games end in late February. In Washington, it is widely believed that no military action would happen until afterward, in the event that diplomatic routes fail.

奥运会将于2月底结束。在华盛顿,人们普遍认为,在那之前,不会发生军事行动;之后如果外交途径失败,才可能出现军事行动。

The Pentagon has drawn up extensive plans, including a punch-in-the-nose strategy against the North that would involve taking out a missile, and a much broader attack on the missile and nuclear sites. But both Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson have argued internally that it would be nearly impossible to contain any retaliation, officials have said.

五角大楼制定了广泛的计划,包括向朝鲜发射导弹的正面打击战略,以及对朝鲜的导弹和核设施进行更广泛的打击。不过,官员们表示,国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)在内部讨论时表示,要遏制任何报复行动几乎是不可能的。

The State Department welcomed Tuesday’s talks at the Demilitarized Zone, but Heather Nauert, the department’s spokeswoman, said South Korean officials “will ensure North Korean participation in the Winter Olympics does not violate the sanctions.”

美国国务院对周二在非军事区举行的会谈表示欢迎,但国务院发言人希瑟·诺尔特(Heather Nauert)表示,韩国官员“要确保朝鲜参加冬奥会不会违反制裁规定”。

Both the North and South have engaged in this dance before.

朝鲜和韩国之前都跳过这种摇摆不定的舞步。

Twenty-six years ago, just as the Soviet Union was disappearing, the countries signed a treaty of reconciliation and nonaggression that promised to formally bring an end to the Korean War as well as re-establish telephone lines, mail and economic exchanges. Most of that agreement has never been realized.

26年前,在苏联解体时期,两国签署了一项和解与互不侵犯条约,承诺正式结束朝鲜战争,重建电话线、邮件通讯和经济交流。该条约的大多数内容从未实现。

But if Kim and Moon were to move to revitalizing that agreement, they would greatly complicate Trump’s military threat and could well undermine the international effort to get China to further tighten sanctions against Pyongyang.

但是,如果金正恩和文在寅采取行动恢复该条约,他们将使特朗普的军事威胁变得更为复杂,并可能大幅削弱国际社会促使中国进一步加强对平壤制裁的努力。

The core of the debate in Seoul is whether Kim’s overture is a tactical move, or represents an entirely new strategy.

在首尔,辩论的核心问题是:金正恩的友好姿态,究竟是一种战术行为,还是代表着全新的战略。

“His peace offensive is leading to the first steps in a transition from confrontation and rising tensions to easing tensions and peace on the peninsula,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.

“他的和平攻势令对抗以及日益紧张的局势开始初步走向缓和,乃至走向朝鲜半岛和平,”首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)研究朝鲜问题的教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)说。

But if his intent was to divide the South from the United States, Kim has his moment.

不过,如果金正恩意在分裂韩国和美国,那么他也有了一个机会。

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