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金正恩向韩国示好

更新时间:2018-1-2 19:36:04 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Kim Jong-un’s Overture Could Drive a Wedge Between South Korea and the U.S.
金正恩向韩国示好

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s surprise call on Monday for direct talks with South Korea could drive a wedge into the decades-old alliance between Seoul and Washington, potentially creating a reprieve from months of tensions but also undercutting President Trump’s tough approach to the nuclear-armed North.

韩国首尔——朝鲜周一出人意料地呼吁与首尔直接对话。这可能会破坏首尔与华盛顿长达数十年的盟友关系,也可能有助于缓解数月来的紧张局势,同时削弱特朗普总统对拥有核武器的朝鲜的强硬立场。

A New Year’s Day speech by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, contained a dramatic shift in tone and policy regarding the South. After ignoring South Korea for years, Mr. Kim called for urgent dialogue to discuss improving ties and easing military tensions on the divided Korean Peninsula, even as he claimed an ability to strike the mainland United States with nuclear missiles.

在新年贺词中,朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)谈到韩国时的语气和政策都发生了显著变化。无视韩国多年后,金正恩在声称有能力用核导弹打击美国本土的同时,呼吁紧急开展对话,商讨改善两国关系和缓和处于分裂状态的朝鲜半岛上的军事紧张局面。

Mr. Kim also agreed to a request by President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to send a North Korean delegation to the Winter Olympics to be held in the South next month.

金正恩还同意了韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)提出的朝鲜派代表队参加下月在韩国举行的冬奥会的请求。

Mr. Kim’s about-face, which was broadcast on state-run television, came just days after Washington rallied its allies and rivals to support increasingly punishing United Nations sanctions against North Korea.

朝鲜官方电视台播放了这个显示金正恩态度转变的新年讲话。就在几天前,华盛顿召集盟友和竞争对手,要求它们支持越来越严厉的联合国对朝制裁。

Analysts said Mr. Kim was looking for opportunities to weaken international resolve to enforce the penalties, as well as to sow discord between the United States and South Korea.

分析人士称,金正恩正在找机会削弱国际社会执行相关处罚的决心,并在美国和韩国之间制造不和。

Mr. Moon has repeatedly called for dialogue with the North, hoping that talks would ease tensions and lead to broader international negotiations to end its nuclear weapons program.

文在寅多次呼吁与朝鲜对话,希望对话能缓和紧张关系,并促成更广泛的国际谈判,以结束朝鲜的核计划。

Hours after Mr. Kim’s speech, Mr. Moon’s office welcomed the North’s proposal.

在金正恩发表贺词几小时后,文在寅的办公室对朝鲜的提议表示了欢迎。

“We have already expressed our willingness to engage in a dialogue with North Korea at any time, in any place and in any format, as long as both sides can discuss restoring their relations and peace on the Korean Peninsula,” said Park Soo-hyun, Mr. Moon’s spokesman.

“我们已经表达过愿意在任何时间、任何地点、以任何形式与朝鲜进行对话,只要双方能够商讨恢复两国关系和朝鲜半岛上的和平,”文在寅的发言人朴洙贤(Park Soo-hyun)说。

Mr. Trump, on the other hand, has stressed maximum pressure and sanctions, and even suggested possible military action to force the North to give up its nuclear arsenal.

另一边,特朗普施加了最大限度的压力和制裁,甚至表示可能会采取军事行动,逼迫朝鲜放弃核武器。

Mr. Moon officially supports the enforcement of United Nations sanctions. In recent weeks, his government has seized two oil tankers on the suspicion that they were used in violation of the sanctions to smuggle refined petroleum products into North Korea through ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas.

文在寅的官方态度是支持执行联合国的制裁。最近几周,他领导的政府扣押了两艘油轮。它们涉嫌违反制裁,通过在公海上进行船对船转移,将精炼石油产品走私到朝鲜。

But the South Korean president also agrees with China and Russia that talks are needed to resolve the nuclear crisis. Mr. Kim’s sudden peace overture on Monday will probably encourage both South Korea and China to raise their voices for dialogue.

但韩国总统也赞成中国和俄罗斯的意见,认为必须通过对话解决核危机。金正恩周一突如其来的和平提议可能会促使韩国和中国加强对举行对话的支持。

“Kim Jong-un is using the Pyeongchang Olympics as a way to weaken the sanctions,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. “He is seeking to create a fissure between Seoul and Washington.”

“金正恩正在把平昌奥运会当作削弱制裁的一种方式,”首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)研究朝鲜问题的教授金容铉(Kim Yong-hyun)说。“他试图在首尔与华盛顿之间制造分歧。”

In his speech, Mr. Kim warned that he had “a nuclear button” in his office that could send intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, hurtling toward any point in the mainland United States. He also vowed to increase production of nuclear-capable missiles.

在新年贺词中,金正恩警告说他的办公室里有一个“核按钮”,可将洲际弹道导弹发射到美国本土的任何地方。他还发誓要增加可携带核弹头导弹的产量。

On Nov. 29, when the North launched an ICBM with engines powerful enough to send a warhead to the East Coast of the United States, North Korea already claimed to have completed its nuclear arsenal.

11月29日,朝鲜发射了一枚洲际弹道导弹,其发动机威力强大到足以将弹头投掷到美国东海岸。朝鲜当时就声称已经实现了核武库的完备。

Analysts have said that the North has yet to master the missile technology needed to protect a nuclear warhead when it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere from space. They said that despite the North’s claim to have completed its weapons program, the regime was likely to conduct more weapons tests to improve its capabilities.

分析人士称,朝鲜还没有掌握在核弹头从太空再次进入大气层时保护它所需的导弹技术。他们说,尽管朝鲜声称核计划已经完成,但朝鲜政权可能会进行更多武器试验,以提高其能力。

But in addition to improving its weapons technology, the North also wants to ease crippling sanctions that limit fuel supplies and hard currency entering the country.

但除改进武器技术外,朝鲜还希望放松极具破坏力的制裁。相关制裁限制了进入朝鲜的燃料供应和硬通货。

In recent years, while ignoring South Korea, North Korea has pursued opportunities for talks with Washington. But those efforts have not created a long-term solution.

近年来,在无视韩国的同时,朝鲜还寻求机会与华盛顿进行谈判。但这些努力都没有产生一个长期的解决方案。

The United States is not interested in holding talks that lack a clear commitment from the North to discuss denuclearization. The North, however, insists on being recognized as a nuclear state.

美国对举行谈判不感兴趣,除非朝鲜明确承诺会商讨无核化。然而,朝鲜坚持要被视作一个核武国家。

“After getting nowhere with the Americans, North Korea is now trying to start talks with South Korea first and then use that as a channel to start dialogue with the United States,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“在美国人那里毫无进展后,朝鲜如今正在努力先与韩国开展谈判,然后再用它作为一个与美国开展对话的渠道,”首尔朝鲜问题研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)的教授杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)说。

The isolated North made major strides last year in its nuclear weapons program. On Sept. 3, it detonated what it called a hydrogen bomb in its sixth and most powerful nuclear test. It has also launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles in the past year.

去年,与世隔绝的朝鲜在其核武器计划上取得重大进步。9月3日,在第六次、也是威力最为强大的一次核试验中,该国引爆了它称之为氢弹的武器。它还在去年发射了三枚洲际弹道导弹。

But the country has also faced harsh sanctions from the United Nations Security Council. The Council has sought to squeeze North Korea’s main sources of foreign currency by banning its exports of coal, iron ore and sea products and curtailing the employment of North Koreans in other countries. It has also demanded that member nations drastically reduce exports of refined oil to North Korea.

但这个国家也面临着来自联合国安理会的严厉制裁。安理会已经采取措施,通过禁止该国煤炭、铁矿石及海产品出口,以及限制他国雇佣朝鲜人,收紧朝鲜主要外汇来源。联合国安理会还要求成员国大幅减少对朝鲜的成品油出口。

While gas prices in the North more than doubled in 2017, analysts said the country could feel more pain this year, depending on how stringently the sanctions are enforced, especially by China, the North’s primary trading partner.

朝鲜的油价在2017年上涨了一倍以上,分析人士说该国可能在今年会受到更多重创,这要取决于执行制裁的严格程度,尤其是朝鲜主要的贸易伙伴中国。

Hard-liners in South Korea and the United States fear that if dialogue on the Korean Peninsula creates a temporary reprieve from tensions, the enforcement of sanctions could also be relaxed. Officials in the Moon administration said that they were aware of the North’s strategy and that they closely coordinate their moves with Washington.

韩国的强硬派及美国担忧,一旦朝鲜半岛上的对话暂时缓解紧张局势,对制裁的执行也将被放松。文在寅政府的官员说他们了解朝鲜的策略,并且表示他们密切配合华盛顿的举措。

For Mr. Moon, the inter-Korean talks would provide a badly needed respite after a year in which Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump regularly exchanged threats of war. Mr. Trump has said he could unleash “fire and fury” and “totally destroy North Korea,” while North Korea has suggested it could conduct a hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific.

对文在寅来说,在金正恩和特朗普反复相互威胁要发起战争一年后,朝鲜半岛内的谈判将提供一个急需的缓解之计。特朗普表示他将释放“炮火与怒火”,还说要“完全摧毁朝鲜”,而朝鲜则暗示自己可以在太平洋上方进行氢弹试验。

Increasingly anxious over a possible armed conflict, Mr. Moon seeks to create a lull in the nuclear standoff during the Olympics and use its momentum to start talks with North Korea. Such talks, he hopes, might eventually lead to broader negotiations in which the United States, China and other regional stakeholders could offer economic and diplomatic incentives to the North in return for the freeze and eventual dismantling of its nuclear weapons program.

文在寅对于可能出现的武装冲突愈发焦虑,他谋求奥运会期间在核僵局中创造出一个平静期,然后利用这股势头开启与朝鲜的谈判。他希望这样的谈判可能最终走向一个更广泛的协商,美国、中国及其他该地区的利益相关方都能为朝鲜提供经济和外交方面的激励措施,来换取核武计划冻结及最终的核武计划废除。

Last month, Mr. Moon proposed that South Korea and the United States postpone joint military exercises that were expected to start in February if North Korea suspended weapons tests in the weeks leading up to the Olympics.

上个月,文在寅提议如果朝鲜在奥运会开幕前几周暂停核试验,韩美两国就推迟预计于二月开始的联合军演。

Analysts said that in any future talks North Korea would seek major concessions, like the easing of sanctions and a reduction of the American military presence on the Korean Peninsula. In return, the North would probably try to force Washington to accept a compromise by offering to freeze or give up its ICBMs, while keeping other nuclear assets as leverage.

分析人士说在任何的未来谈判中,朝鲜都会谋求获得重大让步,比如放松制裁以及美国削减在朝鲜半岛的军事存在。作为交换,朝鲜可能会通过提出冻结或放弃其洲际弹道导弹、保留其他核资产作为砝码,努力迫使华盛顿接受一个折衷方案。

On Monday, Mr. Kim urged South Korea to cease joint military exercises with the United States, adding that the Americans would never dare start a war with North Korea.

周一,金正恩敦促韩国停止与美国的联合军演,并且补充说美国人永远都不敢与朝鲜开战。

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a South Korean think tank, said: “In this year’s New Year’s Day speech, he is more confident than ever about a nuclear deterrent against the United States. It is based on that confidence that he is proposing to improve ties with South Korea.”

韩国智库世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)的高级分析师郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)说:“在今年的新年贺词中,关于对美国的核威慑,他比以往都要自信。这是基于他提议与韩国改善关系的信心。”

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