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韩国称朝鲜将继续进行武器试验

更新时间:2017-12-27 17:56:06 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Won’t Stop Its Arms Tests Anytime Soon, South Warns
韩国称朝鲜将继续进行武器试验

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea will keep improving its nuclear and long-range ballistic missile capabilities next year to gain leverage to force Washington to make concessions, like the easing of sanctions, government and private analysts in South Korea said on Tuesday.

韩国首尔——韩国政府及民间分析人士周二说,朝鲜明年将继续改进其核能力和远程弹道导弹能力,以获得迫使华盛顿作出让步(比如放松制裁)的筹码。

The isolated North has made major strides this year in its nuclear weapons program but has also faced increasingly tough sanctions from the United Nations. On Sept. 3, it detonated what it called a hydrogen bomb in its sixth and most powerful nuclear test. It has also launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles this year, demonstrating rockets powerful enough to deliver warheads to all of the continental United States.

受世界孤立的朝鲜今年在其核武器项目上取得了重大进展,但同时也面临着联合国日益严厉的制裁。朝鲜在9月3日引爆了一枚它称之为氢弹的武器,这是该国进行的第六次、也是威力最大的一次核试验。朝鲜还在今年发射了三枚洲际弹道导弹,展示了其火箭有足以将弹头运载到美国大陆的能力。

After its last ICBM test, conducted Nov. 29, North Korea claimed to have completed building its nuclear force. But the country has yet to clear a key technological hurdle: proving that its warheads can survive re-entry into the atmosphere after flying through space, according to Western officials and analysts.

朝鲜在11月29日进行了最近一次洲际弹道导弹测试后声称,已经完成了本国核武装力量的建设。不过,据西方官员和分析人士说,朝鲜尚未越过一个关键技术障碍:证明其弹头能够在太空飞行之后重新进入大气层而不被烧毁。

Forecasting North Korea’s nuclear weapons program for the new year, the Unification Ministry in South Korea said on Tuesday that the North “will continue to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities” in 2018 despite its claims about completing its nuclear force.

韩国统一部周二对朝鲜核武器项目在新一年的进展做预测时说,虽然朝鲜声称已完成了其核武装力量的建设,但朝鲜“将继续推进其核能力和导弹能力”。

North Korea will conduct at least one more missile test to master the re-entry technology for its warheads, analysts said. But the North also was racing against time to secure full ICBM capabilities before new United Nations sanctions begin squeezing its economy, they said.

分析人士说,朝鲜将至少再进行一次导弹试验,以掌握弹头再入技术。但他们说,朝鲜也在争分夺秒,力求在其经济感受到联合国新一轮制裁的压力之前,确保本国全面拥有洲际弹道导弹能力。

“Re-entry is a question North Korea must solve to boost its negotiating leverage and for its military and technological purposes,” Shin Beom-chul, a security analyst, said in a report published over the weekend by the government-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. “For North Korea, there is a big difference between entering negotiations with the United States after acquiring full ICBM capabilities and starting such talks without them.”

“弹头再入是朝鲜必须解决的问题,解决这个问题既是为了为谈判增加筹码,也是为了其自身的军事和技术目的,”首尔的官办国家安全研究机构外交与国家安全研究所(National security Institute of Foreign Affairs and National security)的安全分析师申範澈(Shin Beom-chul)在周末发表的一份报告中写道。“对朝鲜来说,在全面拥有洲际弹道导弹能力后与美国进行谈判,与在没有这种能力的情况下开始谈判,是截然不同的。”

North Korea wants Washington to recognize it as a nuclear weapons state.

朝鲜希望华盛顿承认它是一个拥有核武器的国家。

With that status, analysts said, the North would seek arms-reduction talks in hopes of gaining concessions from Washington, such as easing sanctions and reducing the American military presence around the Korean Peninsula. In return, Pyongyang could offer to freeze or give up its ICBMs while retaining the rest of its nuclear capabilities, analysts said.

分析人士说,有了那个身份,朝鲜会在寻求削减军备的谈判上指望获得华盛顿方面的让步,比如放松制裁,减少美国在朝鲜半岛及周边的军事存在等。分析人士说,作为对美国让步的回报,平壤可以提出冻结或放弃其洲际弹道导弹,但保留其核能力的其余部分。

So far, all the North’s three ICBM tests have taken place in the sea between North Korea and Japan. Though the missiles soared to extremely high altitudes, demonstrating their power, they never flew beyond Japan.

到目前为止,朝鲜的三次洲际弹道导弹试验都是在朝鲜和日本之间的海域进行的。虽然这些导弹飞到了极高的高度,展示了其能力,但它们从未飞到距离日本更远的地方。

Analysts warned that in its next long-range missile test, the North could launch a missile on a full ICBM trajectory and even carry a live nuclear warhead to demonstrate its mastery of warhead re-entry technology.

分析人士警告说,朝鲜在下一次远程导弹试验中,可能会发射一枚具有完整的洲际弹道导弹轨道、甚至携带实核弹头的导弹,以证明其掌握了弹头再入技术。

“The North’s seventh nuclear test could take place not underground but over the Pacific,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst, in a report published by the independent Sejong Institute of South Korea.

“朝鲜的第七次核试验可能不是在地下进行,而是在太平洋上空,”资深分析师郑相昌在韩国独立研究机构世宗研究所发表的一份报告中写道。

In September, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, vowed to take the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history” after President Trump threatened to “totally destroy North Korea” if it continued to threaten the United States and its allies. The North’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, later said Mr. Kim might be considering an atmospheric hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific Ocean.

今年9月,美国总统特朗普曾威胁说,如果朝鲜继续威胁美国及其盟友的话,美国将“彻底摧毁朝鲜”,之后,朝鲜领导人金正恩发誓,将采取“史上最高级别的超强硬应对措施”。朝鲜外交部长李英浩后来表示,金正恩也许在考虑在太平洋上空进行大气层氢弹试验。

The United Nations Security Council has slapped North Korea with four rounds of sanctions this year alone, seeking to deprive the country of key sources of hard currency by banning its exports of coal, iron ore and sea products and phasing out the use of North Korean workers abroad. It also tried to squeeze the North’s fuel supplies by demanding that member nations drastically reduce exports of refined oil to North Korea.

联合国安理会仅在今年一年就对朝鲜采取了四轮制裁措施,试图通过禁止朝鲜出口煤炭、铁矿石和海鲜产品,以及逐步停止在海外使用朝鲜工人,来切断朝鲜的主要硬通货来源。安理会还试图通过要求成员国大幅度减少向朝鲜出口成品油,来严格限制朝鲜的燃料供应。

From January to November, North Korea’s trade with China, its only major remaining trading partner, declined to $4.7 billion, a drop of more than 10 percent, the Unification Ministry said on Tuesday. Its exports to China plummeted nearly 32 percent in the same period, the ministry said.

朝鲜与中国今年1月到11月的贸易总额已减少了10%以上,降至47亿美元,韩国统一部周二说。中国是朝鲜仅有的唯一主要贸易伙伴。朝鲜对中国的同期出口下降了近32%,统一部说。

American officials say they still favor a diplomatic solution to the North Korean crisis. But top aides to Mr. Trump, including Gen. H. R. McMaster, his national security adviser, have indicated that Washington was also considering a military action against the North.

美国官员说,他们仍支持通过外交手段解决朝鲜危机的选择。但包括国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特上将(Gen. H. R. McMaster)在内的特朗普高级助手表示,华盛顿也在考虑对朝鲜采取军事行动。

Increasingly anxious over possible military conflict, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea proposed this month that his country and the United States postpone their joint military exercises, which were originally expected to start in late February.

由于对可能发生军事冲突的担心越来越多,韩国总统文在寅本月提议,推迟韩国与美国原定在明年2月下旬开始的联合军事演习。

Mr. Moon said the annual exercises, which North Korea has denounced as rehearsals for an invasion, could be postponed until after South Korea hosted the Winter Olympics in February and the Paralympics in March. Whether the allies will eventually delay the drills depends on whether North Korea conducts any weapons tests in the weeks leading up to the Games, South Korean officials said.

朝鲜曾谴责联合军演是为入侵朝鲜进行的演习。文在寅说,军演可能会推迟到韩国在2月份举办了冬奥会、在3月份举办了冬季残奥会之后进行。这两个盟国是否最终推迟军演取决于朝鲜在冬奥会前的几周里是否进行武器测试,韩国官员说。

Mr. Moon hopes to create a lull in the nuclear standoff during the Olympics and use it as momentum to start talks with North Korea. When North Korea said it completed its nuclear force following its ICBM test in November, some analysts said the North might now be open to stopping its program there and to start negotiating.

文在寅希望在冬奥会期间给核僵局制造一个间歇,并将其作为与朝鲜开始谈判的契机。朝鲜在今年11月进行了洲际弹道导弹试验之后,宣布完成了核武装力量的建设。当时,一些分析人士曾表示,朝鲜现在也许会对停止其核项目、开始谈判持开放态度。

Reacting to the United Nations’ latest sanctions resolution, the North Korean Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that the country “will further consolidate our self-defensive nuclear deterrence.” But it did not specify any missile or nuclear tests.

朝鲜外交部周日对联合国最近通过的新一轮制裁决议作出回应表示,朝鲜“将进一步加强我们的自卫核威慑力量”,但没有具体表示要进行任何导弹或核试验。

Instead, North Korea might be preparing for a satellite launch, the South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo said on Tuesday, citing an anonymous government source.

取而代之的是,朝鲜可能在准备发射卫星,韩国报纸《中央日报》周二援引匿名政府消息人士的话说。

South Korea saw “nothing out of ordinary at this moment” while it and the United States were closely monitoring for possible provocations from the North, Noh Jae-chon, a South Korean military spokesman, said on Tuesday.

韩国“此时此刻没有(看到)任何异常情况”,同时,韩国和美国正在严密监视来自朝鲜的可能挑衅,韩国军方发言人卢在容(Noh Jae-chon,音)周二说。

North Korea launched a rocket to put a satellite into orbit in 2012 and again in February last year. The United Nations bans North Korea from launching satellites, fearing that the country was using the program as a cover for developing long-range ballistic missiles.

朝鲜曾在2012年发射了一枚火箭,将一颗卫星送入轨道,并在去年2月再次发射了一颗卫星。联合国禁止朝鲜发射卫星,担心朝鲜以卫星项目为幌子研发远程弹道导弹。

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