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朝鲜发射导弹会威胁民航安全吗?

更新时间:2017-12-6 10:57:36 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea’s Missile Launch Gave Airline Pilots a Jolt
朝鲜发射导弹会威胁民航安全吗?

HONG KONG — Pilots of three commercial jets reported seeing what appeared to be the missile that North Korea launched last week, raising questions about the possible risk to civilian flights from the North’s weapons program.

香港——三个商业航班的飞行员报告说,他们看到了似乎是朝鲜上周发射的导弹的东西,让人们担心朝鲜的武器计划可能给民用航班带来风险。

The flight crew of Cathay Pacific Flight 893 from San Francisco to Hong Kong last Wednesday saw “what is suspected to be the re-entry” of the North Korean missile, the airline said this week.

国泰航空公司说,上周三,该公司从旧金山飞往香港的893航班的机组人员看到了“疑是重返(大气层)”的朝鲜导弹。

In addition, the pilots of two Korean Air flights bound for Incheon International Airport near Seoul, South Korea’s capital, saw “a flash and everyone is assuming it should be the missile because of the timing,” said a Korean Air spokesman who asked not to be named, citing company policy.

另外,飞往韩国首都首尔附近的仁川国际机场的两架韩国航空公司航班的飞行员看到了“一道闪光,大家都认为那应该是导弹,因为时间相符,”韩国航空公司一名发言人说,该人不愿透露姓名,理由是公司政策不允许。

The North’s intercontinental ballistic missile flew for 53 minutes last Wednesday before crashing down in waters 600 miles to the east. It had the potential to fly more than 8,000 miles, analysts said, putting all of the continental United States in range. North Korea called the new missile the Hwasong-15, and photos suggested advancements over earlier models.

上周三,朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹在飞行了53分钟后落入朝鲜以东950公里(约600英里)的水域。分析人士说,该导弹有超过1.3万公里(8000英里)的潜在飞行距离,将美国大陆的所有地方都置于其射程之内。朝鲜称新导弹为“火星-15型”,照片显示,新型号比早期的型号有进步。

Because the Hwasong-15 and several other missiles North Korea recently tested were launched at a high angle, they landed far closer to home than they could have. Still, several recent missiles have traveled out of North Korean airspace and closer to areas frequented by civilian flights. The North has been carrying out its missile tests without warning for years.

因为火星-15型以及朝鲜最近测试的其他几枚导弹都是以很高的角度发射的,所以它们坠落的地方比可能的实际飞行距离近得多。尽管如此,最近的几枚导弹已经飞出了朝鲜领空,接近了民用航班经常出入的空域。多年来,朝鲜一直在不做警告的情况下进行导弹测试。

The missiles “are predominantly re-entering into Japanese airspace,” Flight Service Bureau, a Florida-based aviation consulting firm, said in August. “This creates a new risk to civil aviation.”

朝鲜的导弹“主要是在日本领空重返”,位于佛罗里达的航空咨询公司航班服务局(Flight Service Bureau)今年8月曾说。“这给民用航空带来了新的风险。”

Cathay Pacific said its plane was “far from the event location” on Wednesday, but it did not say how far. The sighting was reported to air traffic controllers in Japan, and the flight’s “operation remained normal and was not affected,” the airline said.

国泰航空周三表示,其飞机“离事件地点很远”,但未透露有多远。该公司表示,飞行员把看到的情况报告给了日本空中交通管制员,航班的“正常运行没有受到影响”。

Korean Air said it was unclear how far the apparent missile re-entry was from its own planes, whose flights originated in Los Angeles and San Francisco.

韩国航空公司说,尚不清楚看似重返的导弹与该公司航班的距离,那两架班机飞别是从在洛杉矶和旧金山起飞的。

Military weapons have sometimes downed civilian flights, including Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which investigators say was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile over Ukraine in 2014. While the intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, that North Korea has recently tested are not meant for use against aircraft, they could still pose a risk to planes.

发生过军用武器击落了包括马来西亚航空公司MH17号航班在内的民用班机的事情。调查人员说,MH17号航班于2014年在乌克兰上空被一枚俄罗斯地对空导弹击中。虽然朝鲜最近测试的洲际弹道导弹并不是用来打飞机的,但它们仍可能对飞机构成威胁。

“It is something to be concerned about,” said Peter Harbison, executive chairman of CAPA — Center for Aviation, a consultancy in Sydney, Australia. But he said that while such missiles posed a danger to commercial flights, the risk was “low in terms of probability.”

“这是让人担心的事情,”澳大利亚悉尼的咨询公司CAPA—Center for Aviation的执行主席彼得·哈比逊(Peter Harbison)说。但他表示,尽管这种导弹对商业航班构成了威胁,但这种风险“从概率的角度来看很低”。

Both Cathay Pacific and Korean Air said they were not taking any new precautions in response to the apparent sightings. “We have been in contact with relevant authorities and industry bodies as well as with other carriers,” Cathay Pacific said in its statement. “At the moment, no one is changing any routes or operating parameters.”

国泰航空和韩国航空都表示,他们并没有因为飞行员看到了看似导弹的东西而采取任何新的预防措施。“我们一直与有关部门、行业组织,以及其他航空公司保持着联系,”国泰航空在声明中说。“目前,还未改变任何航线或操作参数。”

“The risk is small,” said Roger Mulberge, an aviation safety consultant based in Bangkok. “Even with the amount of air traffic you get these days, in the airspace there’s a fair amount of room.”

“这种风险很小,”住在曼谷的航空安全顾问罗杰·马尔伯格(Roger Mulberge)说。“即使在目前空中交通流量的情况下,空域中仍有相当大的空间。”

But North Korea’s tendency to launch without warning is “worrying,” he added.

但是,朝鲜不做警告就发射的倾向“令人担忧”,他补充说。

North Korea stopped giving advance notice of its missile tests in 2014. After the North launched dozens of rockets and ballistic missiles that year, South Korea complained to the United Nations Security Council and international aviation and maritime organizations about the lack of warning.

朝鲜在2014年停止了对其导弹测试进行提前通知的做法。那年,在朝鲜发射了数十枚火箭和弹道导弹之后,韩国向联合国安理会和国际航空、航海组织投诉了朝鲜不事先警告的做法。

As North Korea began testing ICBMs this year, the Federal Aviation Administration and the authorities in several other countries issued warnings about the threat of unannounced launches.

今年,随着朝鲜开始测试洲际弹道导弹,美国联邦航空管理局(Federal Aviation Administration,简称FAA)及其他几个国家的有关部门对未宣布就发射所带来的危险发出了警告。

United States carriers have long been banned from flying over most of North Korea because of the risk of planes being targeted by the North’s military.

由于美国航空公司的飞机有成为朝鲜军方攻击目标的风险,美国的航班长期以来一直被禁止在朝鲜大部分地区的上空飞行。

In 1998, the F.A.A. decided to allow American airlines to operate in the far east of North Korean airspace, over the Sea of Japan. Last month, the F.A.A. restricted American carriers from that slice of North Korean airspace as well, citing the “hazardous situation created by North Korean military capabilities and activities, including unannounced North Korean missile launches and air defense weapons systems.”

1998年,FAA曾决定允许美国航空公司的班机在日本海上空朝鲜领空最东的一片飞行。上个月,FAA对美国航空公司进入那小片朝鲜领空也进行了限制,理由是“朝鲜军事能力和活动造成的危险,包括朝鲜未宣布就发射导弹的做法及其防空武器系统”。

Flight Service Bureau recommended in early August that operators consider rerouting “over the Japanese landmass or east of it.” But even that flight path would not have been completely out of range of recent North Korean tests. On Aug. 29 and Sept. 15, the North fired missiles that flew over Japan and landed farther to the east.

航班服务局在今年8月早些时候曾建议运营商考虑绕开“日本本土及其东部海域”飞行。但即使是这样的航线也不会完全避开朝鲜最近的导弹测试。今年8月29日和9月15日,朝鲜发射的导弹飞越了日本上空,在更远的东部落入大海。

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