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关于弗林认罪的十条要点

更新时间:2017-12-4 19:13:49 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Michael Flynn’s Guilty Plea: 10 Key Takeaways
关于弗林认罪的十条要点

Michael Flynn’s plea on Friday to a single count of lying to the F.B.I. is a seismic event in the special counsel investigation.

迈克尔·弗林(Michael Flynn)周五就向联邦调查局(F.B.I)说谎一事认罪,是特别检查官调查中的一起大事件。

For starters, it portends the likelihood of impeachable charges being brought against the president of the United States. Mr. Flynn, a former national security adviser, acknowledged that he was cooperating with the investigation. His testimony could bring into the light a scandal of historic proportions in which the not-yet-installed Trump administration, including Donald Trump personally, sought to subvert American foreign policy before taking office.

首先,这意味着弹劾美国总统的可能性增加。美国前国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林承认,自己正在配合调查。他的证词或将揭露出还未掌权的特朗普政府,包括唐纳德·特朗普个人,在上任前寻求颠覆美国外交政策的历史性丑闻。

The repercussions of the plea will be months in the making, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that the events to which Mr. Flynn has agreed to testify will take their place in the history books alongside the Watergate and Iran-contra scandals.

认罪带来的影响将有数个月的形成期,但要说迈克尔·弗林同意作证的那些事件在历史书上能与水门事件和伊朗门丑闻相提并论,也毫不夸张。

We’re in new — and highly inflammatory — territory. Here are 10 immediate takeaways from today’s news.

我们正处在一个新的——并且具有高度煽动性的——领域。这是今天新闻的10个要点。

This is not a meet-in-the-middle deal.

这不是一个相互妥协的交易。

Both sides did not assess their risks and decide to hedge them with a compromise. Rather, as we’ve known for weeks, the special counsel, Robert Mueller, believed he had sufficient evidence to indict Mr. Flynn on a long list of criminal charges, including money laundering, tax offense and false statements. Mr. Mueller’s team, as is standard prosecutorial practice, presented Mr. Flynn with that list and helped him understand that his life as he knew it had ended.

双方并非在评估了各自风险后通过妥协来对冲风险。据我们这几周的了解,特别检察官罗伯特·穆勒(Robert Mueller)认为自己已获得足够的证据,可以对弗林提出一长串刑事指控,包括洗钱、税务犯罪和虚假陈述。穆勒的团队按照标准的检察程序,向弗林展示了这份清单,让他知道自己从前的生活结束了。

This is much bigger than Paul Manafort.

这比保罗·马纳福特(Paul Manafort)要严重得多。

Mr. Manafort, the former Trump campaign chairman, has been indicted, but this is a plea, and Mr. Flynn’s cooperation — the real goal of bringing criminal charges — has been secured. This puts Mr. Flynn in the same camp as George Papadopoulos, the campaign adviser who pleaded guilty to making false statements to the F.B.I. on Oct. 5 and is also cooperating with the investigation. Unlike Mr. Papadopoulos, though, Mr. Flynn was a top adviser who was at the center of communication with Russia as well as the potential obstruction of justice by President Trump in seeking to shut down the Flynn investigation itself. Mr. Flynn was considered as a running mate and reportedly stayed quite close to the president even after being forced out of the administration in February.

前特朗普竞选团队主席马纳福特已经受到起诉,不过这次是认罪,弗林已经确定会配合——这才是提出刑事指控的真正目的。弗林因此与竞选顾问乔治·帕帕佐普洛斯(George Papadopoulos)站到了同一阵营里,后者于10月5日承认曾对联邦调查局(FBI)做出虚假陈述,也在配合调查。不过,与帕帕佐普洛斯不同的是,弗林是高级顾问,在特朗普团队与俄罗斯的往来以及特朗普总统可能存在的妨碍司法活动中是一个中心人物——特朗普曾试图阻止调查弗林。弗林曾经是特朗普的竞选伙伴人选之一,据称在2月份被迫退出该政府后依然与总统保持密切关系。

Mr. Flynn has just become the prosecution’s star witness.

于是弗林成了检方的明星证人。

Mr. Flynn’s plea on Friday concerned just one crime. The other charges that prosecutors threatened him with continue to hang over him. Mr. Flynn will not receive credit for his cooperation until after it has ended, at which point Mr. Mueller may — if Mr. Flynn has held up his end of the bargain — move to dismiss the other charges. In the interim, Mr. Flynn has to do anything Mr. Mueller’s team requests.

上周五弗林的认罪只涉及一项罪行。检察官用来威胁他的另一个指控继续悬挂在他的头顶。弗林只有在合作结束之后才能获得奖励,如果他履行了协议,届时穆勒可能会撤销其他指控。在此期间,弗林必须做穆勒的团队所要求的任何事情。

The charge Mr. Flynn is pleading guilty to is a stunning one.

弗林承认有罪的那项指控非常惊人。

He is admitting that last December, before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, he asked the Russian ambassador at the time, Sergey Kislyak, to refrain from reacting aggressively to sanctions that the Obama administration had imposed on Russia. Russia reportedly agreed and Mr. Kislyak told Mr. Flynn later that it had chosen to moderate its response to the sanctions to make nice with the Trump team.

他承认,去年12月特朗普就职之前,他请求当时的俄罗斯大使谢尔盖·基斯利亚克(Sergey Kislyak)不要对奥巴马政府向俄罗斯施加的制裁做出激烈反应。据报道,俄罗斯对此表示同意,基斯利亚克后来告诉弗林,俄罗斯已经选择对制裁做出节制的反应,以便向特朗普团队示好。

It seems Mr. Trump himself directed Mr. Flynn to make contact with the Russians.

目前看来指示弗林与俄罗斯人接触的正是特朗普本人。

If Mr. Flynn testifies to this — ABC’s Brian Ross is reporting that he will — it presents another impeachable offense along with the possible obstruction of justice. Even more, it brings the whole matter well outside the purview of the criminal courts into the province of a political scandal, indicating abuses of power arguably well beyond those in the Watergate and Iran-contra affairs.

如果弗林证实这一点——据ABC台的布赖恩·罗斯(Brian Ross)报道,弗林会这样做——那么在特朗普妨碍司法的罪名之外,还将构成另一项可能招致弹劾的罪行。更重要的是,它把整个事件置于刑事法庭范围之外,进入了政治丑闻范畴,表明滥用权力的程度可能超出了水门事件和伊朗门事件。

Mr. Flynn asked Russia to intervene at the United Nations on behalf of Israel.

弗林曾代表以色列要求俄罗斯在联合国事务中进行干预。

He is admitting that last Dec. 22, he asked Mr. Kislyak to delay or defeat a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Israel for its settlement policy, which the Obama administration had decided to let pass. The possible involvement or knowledge of Israel in the case will be one of many questions that congressional investigators will pursue.

他承认,去年12月22日,他要求基斯利亚克推迟或否决联合国安理会谴责以色列定居政策的决议,而奥巴马政府已经决定让该决议通过。以色列在此案中是否介入或知情将成为国会调查人员追究的众多问题之一。

The lying is bad. Conducting rogue American foreign policy is worse.

说谎是不好的。美国搞流氓外交政策就更糟糕。

In the end, Mr. Flynn’s lies are secondary to the demonstration that the Trump administration was actively undermining American foreign policy before it took office. This will most likely prove the most abiding scandalous fact of the Mueller investigation. And it’s one that nobody on either side of the aisle could possibly defend.

最后,相比证实特朗普政府上任前就开始在暗中积极破坏美国外交政策,弗林的撒谎是次要的。这很可能证明穆勒调查中最难以撼动的丑闻事实。在这一点上,两党都不可能有人能出面为之辩护。

Mr. Flynn’s cooperation portends extreme peril for a variety of people in the president’s orbit.

弗林的合作表明总统身边各色人等都面临极大危险。

Most immediately vulnerable? Jared Kushner. Mr. Flynn was present at a Dec. 1, 2016, Trump Tower meeting where Mr. Kushner is said to have proposed to Mr. Kislyak setting up a back channel for the transition team to communicate with Moscow.

谁最危险?贾里德·库什纳(Jared Kushner)。弗林出席了2016年12月1日在特朗普大厦举行的会议,据说会上库什纳建议基斯利亚克设立秘密渠道,以便特朗普的过渡团队与莫斯科进行沟通。

Those and related details are now front and center in the investigation. Criminal liability aside, Friday’s news — including a report that Mr. Kushner was the one who directed Mr. Flynn to contact Russia — helps cement Mr. Kushner’s reputation as a callow and arrogant freelancer, authorized by the president to act way over his head, and possibly impairing some of the most delicate and important issues of foreign policy. (A possible winner, on the other hand, is the younger Mike Flynn, about whose criminal liability his father was extremely concerned. Look to see how Mr. Mueller now chooses to treat the younger Mr. Flynn, who is being investigated over his work for his father’s lobbying business.)

这些事实以及相关的细节现在成了调查的优先事项与核心。除了刑事责任之外,周五的新闻——包括一则报道声称指示弗林同俄罗斯取得联系的人是库什纳——更加令人觉得库什纳稚嫩、傲慢、业余,被总统授权去执行他一时兴起的念头,有可能损害某些最微妙、最重要的外交原则。(另一方面,弗林的儿子迈克·弗林是可能的受益者,弗林最关心的就是儿子的刑事责任。小弗林目前因在其父的游说业务中所做的工作而接受调查,穆勒会选择怎样对待他,让我们拭目以待。)

Mr. Flynn’s plea raises the likelihood that he will give testimony in support of a potential obstruction of justice charge against Mr. Trump.

弗林的认罪提高了他出庭作证,为指控特朗普妨碍司法提供支持的可能性。

The basis for the possible obstruction charge against the president has been his efforts to get the F.B.I. director, James Comey, to shut down the Flynn investigation during a Feb. 14 meeting in the Oval Office, coupled with his multiple lies on the subject. Obstruction is plainly an impeachable offense: It’s the offense for which Richard Nixon was threatened with impeachment.

今年2月14日,在椭圆形办公室举行的一次会议中,特朗普努力要求联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)停止对弗林的调查,加上他在这个问题上的多重谎言,这一切构成了对总统妨碍司法指控的基础。妨碍司法显然是一种可以构成弹劾的罪行:理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)便曾因妨碍司法受到弹劾威胁。

For months, it has seemed the possible culminating charge of the Mueller investigation, a straightforward and readily understandable high crime or misdemeanor. Such a charge, per Department of Justice policy, would not be brought in the criminal courts but would rather form the basis of a report to Congress potentially recommending impeachment. If Mr. Mueller brings that charge, it will be on the strength of Mr. Flynn’s testimony.

几个月来,这被认为有可能是穆勒调查最终得出的指控,一种直白的、简明易懂的重罪或行为不检。根据司法部的政策,这样的指控不会交给刑事法庭,而是会成为一份提交给国会的报告的基础,该包括可能会提出弹劾的建议。如果穆勒提出这一指控,那么将会以弗林的证词为重要依据。

Mr. Trump’s defenders have fewer and fewer cards to play.

为特朗普辩护的人手中的牌越来越少。

There had been a prospect that the obstruction of justice charge, if it did come, would be dismissed by die-hard Trump supporters as subject to conflicting interpretations of Mr. Trump’s state of mind, and therefore not deserving of impeachment or removal. No longer. Now Mr. Trump and his circle will stand accused by a former member of the administration with plainly unconstitutional meddling in the most sensitive of foreign policy issues. If the Congress and country believe Michael Flynn’s account, it is hard to see what even the staunchest Trump defenders can say in defense. That means that as Mr. Trump and the administration look out at the new landscape featuring a guilty Michael Flynn, it’s kill or be killed.

曾经有这样一种可能性,如果真的出现了妨碍司法指控的话,特朗普的坚定支持者将予以驳斥,称这是对特朗普内心想法的一种见仁见智的理解,因此不值得为此弹劾总统或免除其职务。如今这种做法已经行不通了。现在特朗普及其圈子将面临一个本届政府前成员的指控,称总统对最敏感的外交政策问题进行了违宪的干涉。如果国会和国家相信迈克尔·弗林的证词,最坚定的特朗普捍卫者也很难为他辩护。这就意味着,特朗普及其政府要面对迈克尔·弗林认罪的新局面,这是一场你死我活的斗争。

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