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美国用冷战策略应对朝鲜,行得通吗?

更新时间:2017-12-2 12:17:40 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Washington Eyes a Cold War Strategy Against North Korea
美国用冷战策略应对朝鲜,行得通吗?

WASHINGTON — When Defense Secretary Jim Mattis declared on Tuesday that North Korea now had the missile capability to “threaten everywhere in the world, basically,” he hinted at a long-running debate inside the U.S. government: Can the same strategy that worked against the Soviet Union — mutually assured destruction — also work against a far smaller adversary?

华盛顿——当国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)在周二宣布朝鲜现已掌握“基本上可以威胁世界任何角落”的导弹能力时,他实则指向的是美国政府内部的一个长期争论:曾用于抵抗苏联的策略——相互保证毁灭(mutual assured destruction),是否也同样适用于对抗一个远小于苏联的对手?

The answer is yes, of course it can, if the problem is defined as keeping Pyongyang from unleashing a surprise attack on the continental United States. Or no, it probably cannot, if the problem of containing North Korea is more complex than simply protecting Los Angeles and Washington.

如果问题在于要保证平壤不对美国本土发动突然袭击,那么答案是肯定的,当然可以。但如果对朝鲜的遏制问题不只是保护洛杉矶和华盛顿那么简单,那么答案是否定的,同样的政策可能不会适用。

And with North Korea, as the past 70 years of bitter experience have repeatedly shown, almost everything is more complex.

过去70年的惨痛经验也一再证明,与朝鲜有关的一切几乎都不会简单。

There is no evidence that Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s current leader, or his father or grandfather, ever contemplated getting into a direct nuclear exchange with the United States. Depending on whose estimates one believes, North Korea has 20 to 60 nuclear weapons; the United States has more than 1,500 currently deployed, and thousands more in storage. It would be, as one senior U.S. military strategist put it a few weeks ago, a case of assisted suicide.

没有证据表明朝鲜现任领导人金正恩,或他的父亲、祖父,曾打算与美国直接展开核武器交火。据美国预计,朝鲜拥有20至60枚核武器。美国目前已部署的核武器超过1500枚,另外储备了数千枚。正如一位美国高级军事策略师几星期前所说,这将会是一起协助自杀事件。

But that hardly means nuclear weapons are useless for a 33-year-old leader, who has made clear he has ambitious goals for how he would make use of the power conveyed by a global nuclear reach. If the previous leaders of North Korea were interested mostly in a survival strategy — and saw a small nuclear arsenal as the country’s best guarantee — Kim appears to have far greater ambitions.

但是,这并不代表这位33岁的领导人不会使用核武器。金正恩已明确表示,他对如何利用全球射程的核武器所带来的实力有着远大的设想。如果说朝鲜的前几任领导人关心的主要是求生策略——并将小小的核武库视作国家的最佳保障——那么金正恩似乎有更大的野心。

South Korea may have all the technology and the money, but the North has a purity of purpose, in Kim’s mind, that will ultimately give it control of the entire Korean Peninsula. And with it, Kim believes, will come the respect of far larger powers that have been waiting, for decades, for the North to be swept away by forces of history.

韩国或许有所需的技术和资金,但朝鲜有单纯的意志,在金正恩心里,这将助他实现对朝鲜半岛的完全掌控。金正恩相信,这将会为他赢得强权的尊重。这些强权等着朝鲜被历史的浪潮冲走,已经等了几十年。

That goal only works if a U.S. president — President Donald Trump or his successors — contemplates risking Chicago in order to save Seoul. Part of Kim’s vision, some of those who have watched him most closely speculate, is to sow doubt in Asia that the U.S. would really come to their allies’ aid — and splinter the alliance that has teamed up against North Korea for 70 years.

而这个目标只有当美国总统——不论是特朗普还是他的继任者们——愿意以芝加哥的风险换首尔平安时才会实现。据密切观察金正恩的人推测,他的蓝图的一部分,是要在亚洲散播疑虑,让人怀疑美国是否真的会来帮助它的盟友,也一并分裂这个组建了70年的反朝鲜同盟。

“Kim is determined to be a ‘Great Leader’ in his own right,” said Han Sung-joo, a former South Korean foreign minister, who still walks around carrying shrapnel he was hit with as a young boy, when his family was escaping North Korean forces during the Korean War. “And to do that,” Han said earlier this month, “he needs to accomplish something his grandfather and his father did not: building an intercontinental missile that can strike anyplace in the United States.”

“金正恩决心让自己成为一个‘伟大领袖’,”韩升洲(Han Sung-Joo)说,这位前韩国外交部长儿时曾随家人在朝鲜战争期间躲避朝鲜军队,身上至今还留着当时击中他的弹片。“要这么做,”他在本月早些时候说道,“他必须要做到一些他的祖父和父亲都没做到的事:造出可以打到美国大陆任何地方的洲际导弹。”

This summer, the Trump administration declared outright that if Kim succeeded in reaching that goal, conventional deterrence would not be enough. In a series of public statements, Trump’s national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, said that the methods that worked so effectively in the Cold War would not apply in the case of North Korea.

今年夏天,特朗普政府公然宣布,如果金正恩成功实现这个目标,传统的威慑方法将不足够。在一些列的公开声明中,特朗普的国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特中将(Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster)表示,在冷战中行之有效的方法将不适用于朝鲜。

It was not clear whether McMaster’s comments were intended to signal a true willingness to go to war, or whether he was simply trying to shake the North Koreans — and the Chinese — into believing that Trump, unlike his predecessors, was perfectly willing to reach for a military solution to the problem. In recent months, McMaster has not repeated those lines, perhaps hoping that a lull in North Korean missile testing might provide a diplomatic opening.

麦克马斯特的置评用意尚不明朗,他是否在暗示言下之意是想要开战,还是仅仅想要说动朝鲜——以及中国,使其相信特朗普和他的前任不同,非常愿意以武力解决问题。近几个月,麦克马斯特并未重提这些言论,或许是希望朝鲜导弹试验的沉寂能带来一个外交机遇。

That hope was dashed with the latest, and most impressive, North Korean test. The ballistic missile it set off went roughly 2,800 miles into space, before returning to the Sea of Japan; it was intended to demonstrate that the North was now able to reach any corner of the United States. It is not clear whether Pyongyang really can, or whether it could keep a nuclear warhead from burning up in the return to earth — the real rocket science of launching nuclear missiles.

但这个希望被朝鲜最新的、表现最出色的一次试验粉碎了。朝鲜发射的弹道导弹在空中大约飞行了2800英里(约合4506公里)后坠入日本海;本次试验意在展示朝鲜现已拥有攻打至美国各个角落的能力。朝鲜是真的可以做到,或者说是否能够保证核弹头在重回地面时不会被烧毁——这是发射核导弹的真正难题——还无从知晓。

But one thing is clear: Whatever threats that Washington issued in the past few months — sanctions — have clearly not deterred Kim. Now he is betting that he can complete his project — solving the last technical details — before the United States, its allies can agree upon a unified response.

但有一件事是清楚的:不论在过去几个月内,华盛顿如何威胁——制裁——都明显没有震慑住金正恩。现在,他在赌自己可以完成这个项目——在美国及其同盟就统一反应行动达成一致之前,解决最后的技术问题。

So far, that bet has proved correct. South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, has declared that there must never be another war on the Korean Peninsula, and suggested he has a veto power over any U.S. decision to use force. (The Trump administration says the South Koreans, while close allies, have no such veto.) Japan has talked a tougher line, but has been within reach of North Korean nuclear weapons for years — and so far has lived with it, convincing itself that America’s nuclear umbrella had it covered.

目前看来,他赌对了。韩国总统文在寅表态,朝鲜半岛上一定不能再有战争,并表示自己对美国任何想要使用武力的决定都有否决权。(特朗普政府称韩国虽然是亲密盟友,但并没有否决权。)日本的态度更为强硬,但它已多年处在朝鲜核武器射程之内,忍气吞声到现在,并用自己有美国核保护伞来开解自己。

Of course, no U.S. official is prepared to admit that the United States is willing, however unhappily, to rely on conventional deterrence and live with a North Korean nuclear missile capability that can reach American shores as well. After all, a succession of U.S. presidents, from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush to Barack Obama, have all said that would be intolerable.

当然,不论多不情愿,美国政府也不会承认自己愿意依赖常规威慑手段,或者愿意容忍朝鲜拥有将核导弹发射至美国海岸的能力。毕竟,从比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)到乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush),再到贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama),一连串的美国总统都说过这是不能容忍的。

But clearly that appears to be where the United States is headed. While Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said in Beijing at the end of September that he had several lines of communication open to the North Korean leadership, he has left unclear what the goal of any talks with Pyongyang might be. Getting North Korea to completely disarm, his aides conceded, is not remotely possible — and the North has rejected any talks that involve giving up its arsenal.

但显然,美国似乎正朝这这个方向发展。国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)九月底在北京时曾表示,他向朝鲜领导人敞开了多条沟通渠道,但未指明这些与平壤的谈话目标是什么。他的助手承认,要使朝鲜完全解除武装根本不可能——朝鲜也拒绝了一切有关放弃军备的谈话。

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