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一个“拥核”的朝鲜愿意谈判吗?

更新时间:2017-11-30 18:43:15 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Says It’s Now a Nuclear State. Could That Mean It’s Ready to Talk?
一个“拥核”的朝鲜愿意谈判吗?

SEOUL, South Korea — After sending an intercontinental ballistic missile higher than ever before on Wednesday, North Korea said it had mastered nuclear-strike capability and become a full-fledged nuclear state. That claim was immediately met with skepticism.

韩国首尔——周三将一枚洲际弹道导弹射出了胜于以往的高度后,朝鲜说该国已经掌握了核打击能力,成为了一个成熟的核武国家。这一说法立刻受到了质疑。

But by showing that its missiles can reach Washington — even if there is doubt that they can deliver a nuclear warhead there — the North took yet another step toward that goal. So its latest test raised a question the United States and its allies seem likely to have to answer sooner or later: Is it time to accept that North Korea will never give up its nuclear arms, and try to reach a deal to stop its arsenal from growing further?

但通过展示导弹能够打到华盛顿的能力——尽管存在着朝鲜是否能将核弹头送至那里的质疑——朝鲜再次向该目标迈进。该国最新的核试验也引发了一个问题,美国及其盟友看来迟早要对此给出答案:是否是时候接受朝鲜永不放弃核武器的现实,努力达成一项协议,来阻止该国核武库继续壮大?

China and Russia have been pushing for an agreement that would freeze Pyongyang’s nuclear program, in exchange for a suspension of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea. The United States rejects the idea.

中国和俄罗斯都在力促以暂停美韩两国间的联合军演,来换取朝鲜冻结核计划的协议。美国拒绝了这个提议。

The North has repeatedly made clear that it would never give up its nuclear ambitions. But its statement after Wednesday’s launch — saying it had “finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force” — seemed to suggest that it had attained them. If so, at least in theory, it might be open to stopping there.

朝鲜已经多次申明,将永远不会放弃其核野心。但它在周三发射结束后的声明——说其“国家核力量的历史大业、火箭强国事业今天终于完成”——似乎意味着已经实现了这种野心。一旦如此,至少在理论上来说,朝鲜可能会对止步于此持开放态度。

That would fit into what many officials and analysts have long believed to be the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s game plan. They say he wants to have his country recognized as a nuclear power so he can then gain concessions, such as the easing of sanctions, in return for a freeze of his nuclear arsenal.

这将符合许多官员和分析人士长期以来所认定的朝鲜领导人金正恩的策略。他们说,他想让自己的国家作为拥核国家获得认可,这样一来他就能得到让步,比如用其核武库的冻结来换取制裁的减轻。

But even if the North were signaling now that it is open to such discussions, for the United States and its allies to accept it might be politically impossible. It would mean a break from decades of nonproliferation policy, and it could trigger a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia.

但即便是朝鲜现在表示愿意进行此类探讨,让美国及其盟友接受这一点,在政治上估计不可能的。这将意味着一反过去数十年核不扩散政策的做法,并且在东北亚引发核武竞赛。

“Kim Jong-un is diverting all of his resources to a mad dash to get to a demonstration of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the United States, in the hopes that it will so frighten the U.S. and the world that we will agree to pay ransom, that we will pay him hush money, that we will pay him off in sanctions relief and other concessions in exchange for relative good behavior, no more tests, no more threats,” Daniel R. Russel, who was the United States assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs from 2013 until March, told reporters in Beijing.

“金正恩正在将他全部的资源转移到一场疯狂冲刺上,用来展示能够搭载核弹、打到美国的洲际弹道导弹,希望能借此威慑美国和全世界,这样我们就会同意交出赎金,给他封口费,用解除制裁和其他让步作为贿赂,来换取相对良好的表现,不再有试验,也不再有威胁,”从2013年至今年3月一直担任负责东亚事务的助理国务卿丹尼尔·R·拉塞尔(Daniel R. Russel)在北京对记者说道。

“That’s a fool’s deal,” Mr. Russel said.

拉塞尔说,“这是傻瓜协议。”

Analysts in South Korea doubted that the North was signaling a willingness to discuss a freeze. Rather, they said, Pyongyang is blustering to buy time, and it will not be seriously interested in talks with Washington until it truly acquires the capabilities it claims to have, after more tests.

韩国的分析人士对朝鲜表现出愿意讨论冻结核计划的意愿提出了质疑。他们说,相反,平壤更多地是在吵吵嚷嚷地争取时间,并且直到它在更多次试验后真地获得了自己所宣称的能力之前,不会真地对与华盛顿谈判感兴趣。

The North said its launch Wednesday was of a new intercontinental ballistic missile called the Hwasong-15, which it said could deliver “super-large heavy” warheads anywhere in the mainland United States. It flew higher and longer — to an altitude of 2,800 miles, and for 53 minutes — than its Hwasong-14 ICBM did when the North tested it twice in July.

朝鲜说其周三发射的导弹是一种名为“火星-15”(Hwasong-15)的新型洲际弹道导弹,并且表示这一新型导弹能够搭载“超大型重型核弹头”,能够打击美国本土全域。该导弹高度及射程都胜于以往——达到了2800英里高(约合4500公里),飞行了53分钟——均强于其在7月进行了两次试验的“火星-14”(Hwasong-14)型洲际弹道导弹。

But there are reasons to suspect that the North was exaggerating its capabilities. Though the missile flew high, the North did not send it far; it splashed down in waters just 600 miles from the launch site. Nor has the North shown that it has a warhead that can survive the intense heat and friction of re-entering the earth’s atmosphere from space, a crucial technological hurdle.

但也有理由怀疑朝鲜夸大了自己的能力。尽管这枚导弹飞得很高,但朝鲜没能将它送到很远的地方:它在发射场600英里(约合970公里)处落入海中。朝鲜也没有展示出它拥有可以经受住导弹从太空再进入地球大气层时高温和摩擦力的弹头,这是一个关键性的技术障碍。

On a normal trajectory, a missile that can soar 2,800 miles into space could indeed fly far enough to reach New York and Washington from North Korea, missile experts said. But they said the North could have launched its missile on Wednesday with a very light mock warhead or no payload, sending it farther than it could go with a real warhead.

导弹专家说,按照正常的飞行轨迹,高度能够达到2800英里的导弹,飞行距离足够从朝鲜抵达纽约和华盛顿。但他们表示,朝鲜周三发射的导弹上搭载的可能是非常轻的模拟弹头,或根本没有弹头,导致它飞得比搭载真实弹头的导弹远。

“North Korea is bluffing,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University near Seoul, the South Korean capital.

“朝鲜是在虚张声势,”坐落在韩国首都首尔附近的韩国航空大学(Korea Aerospace University)导弹专家张永谨(Chang Young-keun,音)说。

Kim Dong-yub, a defense analyst at the Seoul-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies, doubted that the North would consider a freeze until it had test-launched an ICBM on a normal trajectory over the Pacific and proved an atmospheric re-entry technology. “Its announcement today is likely for domestic propaganda,” Mr. Kim said. “It will continue in its own way to solve its technical problems in its missile program.”

设在首尔的远东研究所(Far Eastern Studies)防务分析师金东烨(Kim Dong-yub,音)怀疑,除非试射一枚按照正常轨道飞越太平洋的洲际弹道导弹并证明大气再入技术,否则朝鲜不会考虑冻结。“今天的声明可能是为了国内宣传,”金东烨说。“它会继续用自己的方式解决导弹计划存在的技术问题。”

Kim Jong-un has boasted in recent months that his country was in the “final” stage of achieving full ICBM capabilities. Shin Beom-chul, a security expert at the government-run Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, said the North needed to announce it had done so before the end of the year. “What North Korea announced today was not a technical but a political pronouncement,” he said.

近几个月,金正恩吹嘘朝鲜处在全面掌握洲际弹道导弹能力的“最后”阶段。首尔由政府开设的国家外交学院(Korea National Diplomatic Academy)安全专家申範澈(Shin Beom-chul)说,朝鲜需要在今年结束之前宣布已经实现了这一点。“朝鲜今天宣布的不是技术声明,而是政治声明,”他说。

Even if the North were open to discussing a freeze, there has been no indication that the United States and its allies would respond positively. Washington insists on a “complete, verifiable and irrevocable dismantlement” of the North’s nuclear arsenal.

即便朝鲜愿意讨论冻结,也没有迹象表明美国及其盟友会做出积极的回应。华盛顿坚持要求“彻底、可证实、不可恢复地拆除”朝鲜的核武库。

Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said the North had everything to gain at this point by provoking the United States.

塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院(Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)朝鲜问题专家李晟允(Lee Sung-yoon)说,朝鲜这时候挑衅美国只赚不赔。

“Now, in the wake of an apparent ICBM test with the longest range to date, voices calling for relaxing sanctions — since, it will be claimed, sanctions don’t work — and returning to dialogue without preconditions will grow louder,” Mr. Lee said. “For Pyongyang, the way to get sanctions lifted is not through making concessions, but resorting to further escalation.”

“现在,在似乎发射了一枚迄今为止射程最远的洲际弹道导弹后,要求放松制裁——因为有人会说制裁不起作用——和无条件回到谈判桌上的声音会越来越大,”李晟允说。“对平壤来说,实现制裁取消的办法不是通过做出让步,而是诉诸于进一步升级。”

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