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特朗普坚持高压,谈判缓和朝鲜局势希望渺茫

更新时间:2017-11-22 18:36:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Restoring North Korea to Terrorism Blacklist Dims Hopes for Talks
特朗普坚持高压,谈判缓和朝鲜局势希望渺茫

SEOUL, South Korea — President Trump’s re-designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism may have dashed cautious hopes in the region that talks and diplomacy would replace escalating tensions and bellicose threats, analysts said on Tuesday.

韩国首尔——分析人士周二表示,特朗普总统再次将朝鲜列为支持恐怖主义国家,这可能已让该地区的谨慎希望化为泡影,人们曾希望通过谈判和外交来取代这个地区不断升级的紧张局势和好战威胁。

Despite a two-month hiatus in North Korea’s weapons tests, Mr. Trump has held to his policy of “maximum pressure,” restoring North Korea on Monday to Washington’s list of terrorism-sponsoring states, along with Iran, Sudan and Syria. The move will be followed by “the highest level of sanctions,” he warned.

虽然朝鲜的武器试验已经出现了两个月的间断,但特朗普仍坚持了他的“最大压力”政策,在周一再次将朝鲜列入支持恐怖主义国家的名单,该名单上还有伊朗、苏丹和叙利亚。特朗普警告说,伴随此举而来的将是“最严厉的制裁”。

Analysts said they doubted that new sanctions would make any real difference on the already heavily penalized country. If anything, they said, the designation will make diplomacy more difficult without increasing Washington’s leverage, warning that North Korea will probably take the naming and shaming as another reason to stick to its hard-line policy of developing and testing nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

分析人士表示,他们对新制裁措施是否会对这个已经受到严厉惩罚的国家产生任何实质性影响持怀疑态度。他们说,特朗普的做法并不会让华盛顿有更多的砝码,只会让通过外交手段解决问题变得更加困难,他们还警告说,朝鲜可能会把这种点名羞辱作为其发展和测试核武器和洲际弹道导弹的强硬方针的又一个理由。

“It’s hard to see any real impact on North Korea, which has lived through all manners of sanctions for seven decades,” said Paik Hak-soon, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a South Korean research organization. “What it does instead is to send a clear message to North Korea that Trump is not interested in talks, another sign and reconfirmation that the Americans remain a hostile force.”

“很难看出(这种做法)对朝鲜有任何真正的影响。朝鲜在各种各样的制裁之下已经度过了70年,”韩国研究机构世宗研究所(Sejong Institute)高级分析师白鹤淳(Paik Hak-soon)说。“这种做法反而向朝鲜发出一个明确的信息,那就是特朗普对谈判不感兴趣,也再次表明美国仍是敌对势力。”

North Korea has yet to respond to Mr. Trump’s move.

朝鲜尚未对特朗普的宣布做出回应。

But its leader, Kim Jong-un, has been notoriously sensitive to outside attacks on his regime. He called Mr. Trump a “mentally deranged U.S. dotard” in September after the president threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea if it endangered the United States. His government has also said it would launch more ballistic missiles in the Pacific, and could conduct an atmospheric hydrogen bomb test there, depending on Washington’s behavior.

但朝鲜领导人金正恩一直对外界对其政权的攻击高度敏感。金正恩曾在今年9月称特朗普是“精神错乱的美国老糊涂”,之前这位美国总统曾威胁说,如果朝鲜危害美国的话,将“彻底摧毁”该国。金正恩政府还表示,将向太平洋地区发射更多的弹道导弹,并可能在那里进行大气氢弹试验,这要视华盛顿的行为而定。

“As long as it is technically ready, North Korea will test missiles again anytime,” said Yun Duk-min, a former chancellor of South Korea’s Korea National Diplomatic Academy who now teaches at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. “It is following its own schedule in weapons development, regardless of whether it is re-designated as a terrorism-sponsoring country.”

“只要朝鲜在技术上准备就绪,它就会在任何可能的时间再次进行导弹测试,”韩国国家外交学院前院长尹德敏(Yun Duk-min)说。“朝鲜遵循自己的武器发展计划行事,不管它是否被重新列为支持恐怖主义国家。”

But Mr. Trump’s announcement gives the country an excuse to justify a new weapons test and “deflect blame onto the U.S.,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the Boston area.

但是,特朗普的宣布让这个国家为新的武器测试进行辩解有了借口,并“将责任推到了美国头上”,李成允(Lee Sung-yoon)说,他是位于波士顿地区的塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院的韩朝问题专家。

Such prospects do not bode well for the policy of South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, who has sought to ease tensions as the country prepares to host the Winter Olympics in February.

这样的前景对韩国总统文在寅的政策来说不是一个好兆头,随着韩国为在明年2月份主办冬季奥运会做准备,文在寅一直在寻求缓解紧张气氛。

Many of Mr. Moon’s progressive supporters believe Mr. Trump’s provocative style and focus on military options have heightened the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula.

许多支持文在寅的进步派人士认为,特朗普喜欢挑衅的作风和对军事选择的强调加剧了朝鲜半岛战争的风险。

On Tuesday, Mr. Moon’s government stressed cooperation with Washington, deflecting any suggestion that there is a disconnect between the allies on policy.

文在寅政府周二强调了与华盛顿的合作,回避了任何有关这两个盟友在政策上存在脱节的暗示。

“Despite the re-designation, there is no change in joint efforts by South Korea and the United States to try to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table for a peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem,” its Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“尽管重新列入了名单,但韩国和美国试图让朝鲜重返谈判桌、以和平手段解决朝鲜核问题的共同努力并未改变,”韩国外交部在一份声明中说。

Meanwhile, conservative South Koreans welcomed Washington’s re-listing of the North as a sponsor of terrorism, and in Tokyo, the support from Shinzo Abe, the hawkish prime minister of Japan, was straightforward.

与此同时,韩国保守派人士对华盛顿将朝鲜重新列为支持恐怖主义国家的做法表示欢迎。在东京,来自日本鹰派首相安倍晋三的支持也很直截了当。

“We welcome and support the act, as it is expected to increase pressure on North Korea,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

“我们欢迎并支持这一行动,因为这将增加对朝鲜的压力,”安倍晋三周二对记者说。

The Trump administration says it will keep pressuring North Korea until it agrees to talks on negotiating away its nuclear programs. But the North insists those weapons are not for bargaining.

特朗普政府表示,将继续向朝鲜施压,直到朝鲜同意就放弃其核武器项目进行谈判。但朝鲜坚称,这些核武器的事情不可商讨。

Washington originally put North Korea on the blacklist after a bomb believed to have been planted by North Korean agents blew up a South Korean jet in 1987, killing all 115 people on board. In 2008, President George W. Bush delisted North Korea as part of a deal aimed at ending its nuclear programs. The deal almost immediately disintegrated.

华盛顿最初是在1987年将朝鲜列入黑名单,当时朝鲜特工炸毁了一架韩国飞机,导致机上115人全部死亡。2008年,两国为终止朝鲜核计划达成了一项协议,作为协议的一部分,乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)在名单中去掉了朝鲜。那项协议几乎立即就瓦解了。

During his trip to Asia this month, Mr. Trump hinted that he was giving serious thought to restoring North Korea to the list.

在本月的亚洲行中,特朗普暗示自己正认真考虑将朝鲜重新列入名单。

He met with relatives of Japanese citizens who were abducted by North Korea decades ago to train Korean spies in language and culture. The families hoped that the terrorism blacklist could be used as leverage to gain the return of their missing family members.

他会见了被朝鲜绑架的日本公民的亲属,几十年前朝鲜为了其间谍的语言和文化培训而绑架了他们,这些家属希望,这份恐怖主义黑名单可以用作砝码,以争取他们的失踪家人的回归。

“I feel like we finally came back to the starting line,” Sakie Yokota, 81, whose daughter was taken by North Korean agents when she was 13, told the newspaper Sankei Shimbun after the announcement in Washington. “I’d like to watch how the abductees are rescued amid this stronger pressure.”

“我觉得我们终于回到了起跑线上,”81岁的横田早纪江(Sakie Yokota)在华盛顿发表声明后对《产经新闻》(Sankei Shimbun)说,她的女儿在13岁时被朝鲜特工绑架。“我想看到在更加强大的压力下人质得以解救出来。”

While in South Korea, Mr. Trump spent a significant portion of a speech to the National Assembly detailing a “hell” of human rights abuses in North Korea.

在韩国,特朗普把对国会演讲的一大部分用来描述朝鲜人权侵犯的“地狱”。

That speech and his re-designation of North Korea as a terrorism sponsor were reassuring to Choi Sung-yong, who leads a group of families of fishermen and other South Koreans believed abducted by North Korea decades ago.

这番讲话,加上把朝鲜重新列入支持恐怖主义的国家名单,让崔成勇(Choi Sung-yong,音)感到安心。他领导着一个几十年前被朝鲜绑架的渔民和其他被绑架者的家属组成的团体。

“We were a bit disappointed that President Trump met the Japanese families, but not us Korean families, during his Asia trip,” Mr. Choi said. “In South Korea, not even the government pays much attention to our case.”

“特朗普总统在亚洲时只与日本家庭见面而不与韩国家庭见面,我们还有些失望,”崔成勇说。“在韩国,就连政府都不怎么关心我们的问题。”

He added, “I hope the re-designation will help revive interest in our families.”

他还说,“我希望这次重新列入名单能有助于唤起对我们家人关注”。

But families of the 1987 Korean Air disaster expressed little faith that any official shift would help their cause, a more complete investigation of the bombing.

但1987年大韩航空空难的遇难者家属表示,对于他们的诉求——对炸弹袭击进行彻底调查——他们不太相信官方的转变能带来多大的改善。

“We are stilling waiting and struggling for the truth to be told on what really happened,” said Park Eun-kyong, a daughter of the flight’s captain. “The authorities put North Korea on and off the terror list without asking our opinions. They are putting it back on the list again. I doubt it will make any real difference for us.”

“我们还在等,还在苦苦寻求真相,告诉我们到底发生了什么,”该航班机长的女儿朴恩基(Choi Sung-yong,音)说。“政府把朝鲜列入名单又移出名单,也没问问我们的意见。他们又把它列入名单了。我怀疑这不会给我们带来什么实质性的不同。”

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