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“后美国时代”,谁将成为应对气候变化的领导者?

更新时间:2017-11-14 9:43:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

As U.S. Sheds Role as Climate Change Leader, Who Will Fill the Void?
“后美国时代”,谁将成为应对气候变化的领导者?

BONN, Germany — When President Trump announced in June that the United States would withdraw from the Paris agreement, America officially ceded its global leadership on climate change.

德国波恩——特朗普总统今年6月宣布美国将退出《巴黎气候协定》,那是美国正式让出其在气候变化问题上的全球领导地位的时刻。

The retreat had actually begun months earlier, when climate change disappeared from most government websites and vanished from America’s domestic and international agendas. No longer would the United States federal government address climate change at home or raise global warming with ministers and heads of state, as former President Barack Obama and his cabinet routinely did.

但实际上,美国的退出在那之前就开始了,早在几个月前,有关气候变化的内容就已从大多数政府网站上消失,也从美国的国内和国际议程中消失。美国联邦政府不会再在国内提气候变化问题,也不再像前总统巴拉克·奥巴马和他的内阁经常做的那样,与其他国家的部长和元首们提全球气候变暖的问题。

It was a dramatic shift, and it was meant to be.

这是一个巨大的变化,本意就是这样。

“I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris,” Mr. Trump said in repudiating the accord. “The Paris climate accord is simply the latest example of Washington entering into an agreement that disadvantages the United States to the exclusive benefit of other countries.”

“我是代表匹兹堡人、而不是巴黎人当选总统的,”特朗普在拒绝协定时说。“巴黎气候协定只不过是华盛顿签署的、对美国不利的协议的最新例子,这项协定只对其他国家有好处。”

Since then, others have taken up the climate leadership role. In Europe, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France have vowed that the Paris agreement will flourish without the United States. President Xi Jinping of China and the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, are promoting their countries as climate change champions. The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, has pulled nations together to demand deeper emissions cuts. And American governors, mayors and business leaders have forged their own coalition, even taking over the United States pavilion at United Nations climate talks in Bonn, Germany, this week.

从那以后,其他国家开始在气候问题上起领导作用。在欧洲,德国总理安格拉·默克尔和法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙已发誓,要在没有美国参与的情况下,继续挥舞巴黎协定的大旗。中国国家主席习近平和加拿大总理贾斯廷·特鲁多也正在把各自的国家作为气候变化的捍卫者推向世界。联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯已要求世界各国齐心协力,进一步削减碳排放。本周,美国的州长、市长和工商界领袖们创建了自己的联盟,甚至在德国波恩举行的联合国气候谈判会上,接管了美国展馆。

Political analysts say it’s not clear whether any of them can replace the United States and the immense diplomatic machinery it commands when engaged on an issue. Here’s a look at some of the strengths those leaders bring and the challenges they face.

政治分析人士说,目前还不清楚他们中是否有人能取代美国,以及在涉及一个问题时美国所掌握的巨大外交机器。下面是这些领导人给解决气候问题带来的一些优势、以及他们所面临的挑战。

1. Xi Jinping

1. 习近平

President Xi Jinping didn’t mention Mr. Trump by name at the opening of the Communist Party Congress last month, but his meaning was clear when he declared that China had taken a “driving seat in international cooperation to respond to climate change.” He also criticized countries that “retreat into self-isolation.”

虽然中国国家主席习近平在上个月召开的中国共产党全国代表大会的开幕式上没提特朗普的名字,但是,当习近平宣称中国已经在“引导应对气候变化国际合作”时,他的意思很明确。他还批评了那些“退回到自我封闭”的国家。

Many political analysts say China has indeed moved dramatically on climate change, both to meet its own pledge under the Paris accord to cap carbon emissions by 2030, and to start the world’s largest carbon market and swiftly expand the use of electric cars. In recent months, China has hosted ministerial-level meetings on clean energy and joined Canada and the European Union to lead discussions on climate.

许多政治分析人士说,中国的确在气候变化上迈出了巨大的步伐,不仅是在实现巴黎协定框架下承诺的、在2030年前让碳排达放到峰值上,而且也在启动全球最大的碳排放市场上,中国还以很快的速度扩大了电动汽车的使用。中国在最近几个月里举行了清洁能源部长级会议,还携手加拿大和欧盟在讨论气候问题时牵了头。

Robert N. Stavins, the director of the environmental economics program at Harvard University who was in China recently to discuss climate change, said he had seen a dramatic shift in tenor among Chinese officials. “Having been engaged very, very closely on climate change with the Obama administration as a co-leader, China appears quite content to move from co-leadership to sole leadership,” he said.

哈佛大学环境经济学项目主任罗伯特·N·斯塔文斯(Robert N. Stavins)最近曾来中国讨论气候变化问题,他说,他在中国官员的讲话要领中听出了巨大的变化。“中国曾作为联席领导,在气候变化问题上与奥巴马政府有过非常、非常密切的合作,现在中国似乎相当愿意从联席领导转变为唯一领导。”

2. Justin Trudeau

2. 贾斯廷·特鲁多

For many years Canada was considered a laggard on climate change, leaving the Kyoto Protocol and rarely making an impression at United Nations negotiations.

多年来,加拿大一直被认为在气候变化问题上是落后者。加拿大退出了《京都议定》,也很少在联合国谈判中给人留下有印象的东西。

That all changed with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who cozied up to panda bears and declared “Canada is back” at the Paris global warming talks in 2015. Mr. Trudeau said he was “deeply disappointed” in the United States’ decision to withdraw from the Paris deal, declaring “Canada is unwavering in our commitment to fight climate change.”

这一切都在贾斯廷·特鲁多当选总理后发生了变化,他除了向大熊猫表示亲密,还在2015年的巴黎全球气候谈判上宣布“加拿大回来了”。特鲁多说,他对美国退出巴黎协定的决定感到“非常失望”,他宣称“加拿大在应对气候变化的承诺上坚定不移”。

Since then, he has made good on much of that goal — doubling his country’s contribution to the United Nations science body and sliding into America’s place in some international arenas. In September, for example, Canada hosted a meeting of the world’s largest economies to discuss climate change. American officials in the George W. Bush administration had created that gathering, originally known as the Major Economies Forum, and it continued under Mr. Obama. The Trump administration essentially abandoned it this year.

从那以后,他为上述目标兑现了不少承诺——他把加拿大对联合国气候变化专门委员会的贡献增加了一倍,并在一些国际舞台上扮演起取代美国的角色。例如,今年9月,加拿大主办了世界上最大的经济体讨论气候变化问题的会议。这个会议是乔治·W·布什政府的美国官员发起的,最初被称为主要经济体论坛(Major Economies Forum),奥巴马当选总统后继续举办。特朗普政府今年基本上放弃了这个会议的举办。

“If the U.S. is going to step back, we’re going to step up,” Canada’s environment minister, Catherine McKenna, said.

“如果美国继续退却的话,我们将加快步伐,”加拿大环境部长凯瑟琳·麦肯纳(Catherine McKenna)说。

But the country is still struggling to deliver meaningful climate change policy at home, and Mr. Trudeau in recent months has approved bitumen pipelines and liquid natural gas projects. Activists in Canada say if Mr. Trudeau wants to be a true leader, he’ll have to reject new fossil fuel infrastructure — something that will be a steep and perhaps unmeetable challenge.

但加拿大在推出实施有意义的气候变化的国内政策上仍困难重重,而特鲁多也在最近几个月里批准了修建沥青管道和液化天然气的项目。加拿大的活动人士说,如果特鲁多真想当气候变化领袖的话,他就必须拒绝新的化石燃料基础设施——这将是一个艰巨的、也许无法实现的挑战。

3. State and local U.S. leaders

3. 美国的州长和地方政府领导

Perhaps no group has made a bigger splash on the world stage this year than the coalition of United States governors, mayors and businesses who call themselves the We Are Still In coalition. Informally led by Gov. Jerry Brown of California; Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, and Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington, the group has vowed to uphold the Paris agreement and move ahead with policies to fight climate change.

也许没有哪个组织比自称为“我们依然在”(We Are Still In)的联盟在今年的世界舞台上引起了更大的轰动,该联盟由美国州长、市长和企业组成。这个由加州州长杰里·布朗(Jerry Brown)、纽约市前市长迈克尔·布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)和华盛顿州州长杰伊·英斯利(Jay Inslee)非正式领导的联盟发誓维护巴黎协定,继续推进应对气候变化的政策。

When the Trump administration opted not to have a United States pavilion at the Bonn climate talks to highlight American efforts on climate change, Mr. Bloomberg and others agreed to pay for it. Now the American pavilion is hosting a sort of shadow delegation of local leaders who say they are representing a different face of government. “I feel very strongly America should be represented there,” Mr. Bloomberg said.

特朗普政府决定不在波恩气候谈判会上设美国馆,以展示美国在应对气候变化上所作努力之后,布隆伯格和其他人同意出钱资助设馆。现在,美国馆正在展示的是一种由美国地方领导人组成的影子代表团,这些人说,他们代表了一个不同的政府形象。“我非常强烈地感到,美国应该在这里有代表,”布隆伯格说。

Yet without participation from more states, particularly those that are fossil-fuel heavy, the United States as a whole will still fall short of the Paris pledge, several analyses have found.

但几份分析发现,没有更多的州、尤其是那些化石燃料丰富的州的参与,美国在全国范围内实现巴黎协定承诺上还有一段距离。

4. Angela Merkel & Emmanuel Macron

4. 安格拉·默克尔和埃马纽埃尔·马克龙

The Obama administration gets a lot of credit for helping to forge the Paris Agreement, but in reality it was Europe that insisted on the accord in the first place. Since Mr. Trump’s withdrawal announcement, European leaders have lost no chance to reassert themselves as the guardians of global climate change ambition.

虽然奥巴马政府在促成《巴黎协定》的过程中受到很多赞扬,但实际上,这个协定是欧洲首先坚持达成的。自从特朗普宣布退出以来,欧洲领导人不失时机地重申了自己作为全球气候变化守护者的地位。

Mr. Macron in particular has continued to champion the agreement hammered out in his nation’s capital. He has invited American scientists who work on climate change to move to France, and pressed Mr. Trump several times to remain in the deal. In December, France will host a celebration of the Paris Agreement, to which the United States has not yet been invited. Ms. Merkel put climate change at the center of a Group of 20 summit of the world’s largest economies in Hamburg, Germany, this year.

尤其是马克龙,他继续捍卫在本国首都达成的协定。他还邀请致力于气候变化研究的美国科学家到法国来工作,并多次向特朗普施压,不要让美国退出协定。法国将在今年12月举办庆祝《巴黎协定》签约的活动,美国尚未收到参加的邀请。今年,在德国汉堡举行的20国集团峰会上,默克尔将气候变化问题放在议程的核心位置。

It’s not clear how much those leaders’ efforts will shift United States policy. As Frank V. Maisano, a partner at the law firm Bracewell who represents energy clients, said recently, “Trump’s supporters don’t care that Macron is yelling at him. They like that.”

目前还不清楚这些领导人的努力将会在多大程度上改变美国的政策。正如为能源业客户当代理的律师事务所Bracewell的合伙人弗兰克·V·迈萨诺(Frank V. Maisano)最近所说的,“特朗普的支持者并不在乎马克龙对他大喊大叫。他们喜欢那样。”

5. António Gutteres, U.N. secretary general

5. 联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯

Mr. Gutteres stepped into his new role in January, and those who work with him say the former prime minister of Portugal jumped in with both feet. Mr. Guterres made sure climate change was highlighted during the United Nations General Assembly, meeting with former Vice President Al Gore and Governor Brown of California to discuss ways the United Nations can promote solutions. He also opened a special session to discuss climate change and its impact on small islands after several devastating hurricanes battered the Caribbean.

今年1月,古特雷斯开始自己的新角色时,曾与他一起工作的人说,这位葡萄牙前总理全力以赴地进入了角色。古特雷斯确保了气候问题在联合国大会上得到强调,他与美国前副总统阿尔·戈尔(Al Gore)和加州州长布朗见面讨论了联合国可以用什么方法来促进解决方案的问题。他还在联大上专门组织了一个会场,来讨论气候变化及其对小岛国家影响的问题,那之前,几次毁灭性的飓风袭击了加勒比海地区。

Robert C. Orr, the dean of the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and a special adviser to Mr. Guterres on climate change, said the United Nations leader was “putting his own stamp” on climate change by hosting a major summit at United Nations headquarters in New York in 2018.

马里兰大学公共政策学院院长、古特雷斯在气候变化问题上的特别顾问罗伯特·C·奥尔(Robert C. Orr)说,这位联合国领导人将给气候变化问题打上“自己的烙印”,他将于2018年在纽约的联合国总部主持召开一次大型峰会。

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