您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

“圣人”的坠落:世界是否错看了昂山素季?

更新时间:2017-11-2 11:15:04 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Did the World Get Aung San Suu Kyi Wrong?
“圣人”的坠落:世界是否错看了昂山素季?

WASHINGTON — This is not the happy ending we were led to expect.

华盛顿——这并不是我们预料中的美好结局。

When Myanmar elected Aung San Suu Kyi’s party to power in 2015, she was widely portrayed as a sort of political saint, an icon who had endured great suffering to guide her people from dictatorship to democracy.

2015年,当昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)领导的党派经选举上台执政的时候,她被普遍描绘为某种政治圣人,一个忍受住巨大的折磨,带领人民从独裁走向民主的偶像。

President Barack Obama praised her. Hillary Clinton embraced her in public. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, once compared her favorably to Gandhi.

贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统称颂过她。希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)公开与她拥抱。参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)曾说她比甘地更了不起。

Today Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of Myanmar, is the target of worldwide criticism for standing by as her country’s military wages a campaign of murder, rape and torture against the Rohingya minority group.

然而在今天,当缅甸军方对少数民族罗辛亚人发动一场包含杀戮、强奸和酷刑的打压时,昂山素季作为该国事实上的领导者却袖手旁观,因此成了全世界批评人士的靶子。

Though her fall from grace was exceptionally spectacular, this is a common story. Western leaders champion individuals, often activists who have made heroic sacrifices, as the one-stop-shopping solution to the problems of dictatorship or shaky new democracy.

这个光环褪去的过程十分惊人,但却又是司空见惯的故事。西方领导人总是声援和支持某个人——通常是做出英勇牺牲的活动人士——将其当作一站式方案,用以解决独裁统治或岌岌可危的新生民主政权所存在的问题。

In their zeal to find a simple solution to the complex problem of political change, they overlook their heroes’ flaws, fail to see the challenges they will face in power, and assume that countries are the products of their leaders, when it is almost always the other way around.

在热衷于为政治变革中的复杂问题找出简单解决方案之际,他们忽略了他们的那些英雄身上的瑕疵,没有料到英雄们一旦掌权将会面临的挑战,并且以为国家是其领导人的作品,而事实几乎总是恰恰相反。

“We keep ending up in this situation where we either idolize or demonize foreign leaders,” said Danielle Lupton, a Colgate University political scientist who studies how leaders’ behavior affects foreign policy.

“我们总是让这种解决方案停留在偶像化或妖魔化外国领导人的层面上,”研究领导人行为如何影响外交政策的高露洁大学(Colgate University)政治学家丹妮尔·拉普顿(Danielle Lupton)说。

Some of that is simply politics. But Lupton believes that those simplistic judgments are rooted in a quirk of psychology that makes them hard to avoid, and harder still to alter once they take hold.

政治在一定程度上本就如此。但拉普顿认为,这些简单化的评判源于一种不仅让它们难以避免,而且一旦形成就更难更改的心理怪象。

“In political psychology there’s this notion of confirmation bias: that you have a predetermined belief about either an outcome or, in this case, whether a person is good or bad,” she said. That bias leads people to subconsciously select information that reinforces those beliefs — and to ignore facts that are inconsistent with it.

“政治心理学中有一个概念叫做确认偏误:你对某个结果或者这种情况下的某个人是好是坏有了先入为主的看法,”她说。这种偏见导致人们下意识地选择强化其看法的信息,并忽略与之不一致的事实。

That helps explain how Suu Kyi’s champions in the West seemed to overlook signs that she might not be a paragon of liberal democratic values after all.

这一概念有助于解释这件事是如何发生的:昂山素季的西方支持者似乎忽略了她可能根本不是自由民主价值观典范的一些迹象。

In a 2013 interview with the BBC, for instance, she brusquely dismissed questions about rising violence against the Rohingya, saying that Buddhists had also been displaced from their homes and that there was fear “on both sides.” Asked why the violence had overwhelmingly affected Muslims, she deflected, saying that Buddhists lived in fear of “global Muslim power.”

例如,她在2013年接受BBC采访时,颇为唐突地驳斥了关于罗辛亚人遭遇不断升级的暴力的提问,说佛教徒也被迫流离失所,“双方”都感到恐惧。被问及为什么受暴力影响的绝大多数人都是穆斯林时,她转移话题,说佛教徒生活在对“全球穆斯林力量”的恐惧中。

Though such episodes mounted during her rise, they conflicted with Suu Kyi’s saintly image, and so went largely unnoticed. Western leaders continued to embrace her, building her legitimacy as they pressured the transitional government to hold elections that were widely expected to elevate her to power.

不过这类事件出现在她崛起过程中,与她的圣人形象不符,因此基本被忽略了。西方领导人继续支持她,并竭力塑造她的合法性,他们敦促过渡政府举行被普遍认为会把她选上台的选举。

“Confirmation bias is so powerful that we can ignore information that conflicts, and don’t even notice we’re doing it,” Lupton said.

“确认偏误非常强大,我们会忽略与之矛盾的信息,甚至根本意识不到自己在这样做,”拉普顿说。

The simple story of a crusading leader who will transform a nation rarely works out that way.

一名改革派领袖将会改变整个国家的简单故事,在现实中鲜少成真。

The United States once championed the Afghan leader Hamid Karzai as the democratic successor to the Taliban’s oppressive regime. But Washington was disappointed to find that Karzai, rather than rising above the problems of corruption and cronyism that had beset Afghanistan, established an inner circle that embodied them.

美国曾支持阿富汗领导人哈米德·卡尔扎伊(Hamid Karzai)成为取代塔利班暴政的民主力量。不过,华盛顿失望地发现,卡尔扎伊非但没有解决困扰阿富汗的腐败和任人唯亲问题,反而建立了一个此类问题严重的核心圈子。

“If you hold up a leader as a paragon of virtue, you may aid in consolidating their power, which can have all kinds of unintended consequences,” Saunders said.

“如果你把一个领导者推举为道德典范,你也可能是在帮他巩固权力,从而导致各种意想不到的后果,”桑德斯说。

In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame was hailed as his country’s savior when he took office, with Western support, after the 2004 genocide. But despite successes in reducing poverty, he has proved to be an authoritarian leader. Opposition politicians often end up in prison, in exile or dead. Human Rights Watch has documented widespread military detention and torture.

在2004年卢旺达种族灭绝事件之后,保罗·卡加梅(Paul Kagame)总统在西方的支持下上台,被誉为该国的救世主。尽管他在减贫方面取得了成功,但事实证明,他是一名威权领导人。反对派政治人士的关押、流放或死亡屡见不鲜。人权观察组织(Human Rights Watch)发现该国广泛存在军事拘押和酷刑。

And it was easy to support the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement when it was a rebel group fighting Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the Sudanese leader currently under indictment for genocide in Darfur. But after the group’s officers and allies took power in the newly independent South Sudan, they helped plunge the country into civil war.

作为一个反抗苏丹领导人奥马尔·哈桑·巴希尔(Omar Hassan al-Bashir)的组织,苏丹人民解放运动(Sudan People’s Liberation Movement)自然获得了我们的支持——巴希尔目前正因在达尔富尔进行种族屠杀而被起诉。但是,在该组织的军官和盟友在新独立的南苏丹掌权后,他们的所作所为导致该国陷入内战。

It is not only Western leaders who make such misjudgements. In the 1960s and ‘70s, activists worldwide cheered the rise of African independence leaders like Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, many of whom later hardened into dictators.

不是只有西方领导人做出过这种错误判断。在20世纪60、70年代,世界各地的活动人士为津巴布韦总统罗伯特·穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)等非洲独立领导人的崛起欢呼雀跃,但他们中的很多人后来都成了无情的独裁者。

There are exceptions, such as Nelson Mandela, the first post-apartheid president of South Africa. But the Mandelas are so uncommon, and their successes rely on so many factors clicking into place, that they are still marveled over as wondrous mysteries, including among frustrated activists in Myanmar.

也有例外,比如南非种族隔离解除后的第一位总统纳尔逊·曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)。不过,曼德拉这样的领导人非常罕见,他们的成功依赖于诸多因素的汇合,至今被许多人当作不可思议的神秘事件来赞叹——包括心灰意冷的缅甸活动人士。

Suu Kyi is not Kagame or Mugabe, but after less than 20 months in office she is showing hints of the traits that define such leaders.

昂山素季不是卡加梅或穆加贝,但她在上任不到20个月后,就开始显示出这些领导人的一些特征。

Upon winning power, she quickly sidelined many of the activists and civil society groups that had aided her rise. “She is only listening to those close to her,” said U Yan Myo Thein, an activist with the pro-democracy 88 Generation group and a former political prisoner, characterizing her inner circle as a “personality cult.”

在获得政权后,她很快就开始排挤很多支持她崛起的活动人士和公民社会团体。“现在,她只听那些与她关系密切的人的话,”支持民主的“88世代学生团”(88 Generation Group)的活动人士、前政治犯扬妙登(U Yan Myo Thein)说。他把昂山素季核心圈子的特征描述为“个人崇拜”。

“This is one of the features of a dictator,” he said.

“这是独裁者的一个特征,”他说。

As international plaudits for Suu Kyi continued to mount, some in Myanmar saw growing signs that she was consolidating power and suppressing critics.

随着国际社会对昂山素季的赞誉日益增加,缅甸的一些人却看到越来越多的迹象表明,她正在巩固权力,压制批评者。

“Though they claim themselves as an icon of democracy, they want to centralize and control everything,” Kyaw Thu, who leads the prominent civil society group Paung-Ku, said of the elected government. He added, “Anyone not supporting their agenda is the enemy.”

“尽管他们声称自己是民主的象征,但他们想要集中和控制一切,”著名公民社会团体Paung-Ku的领导人觉杜(Kyaw Thu)在谈到该民选政府时说。他还说,“任何不支持他们的计划的人都是敌人。”

Though senior policymakers seem confident in their habits, younger voices are beginning to question whether the international community, after so many such disappointments, might have something to learn.

尽管资深政策制定者似乎对自己的习惯很有信心,但年轻人开始发声质疑,在经历过这么多的失望之后,国际社会是否应该从中吸取教训。

“This pattern is far too frequent to be ignored,” Tim Hirschel-Burns, a Peace Corps officer in Benin, wrote on his personal blog.

“这种模式出现得太频繁了,不容忽视,”贝宁的和平队(Peace Corps)官员蒂姆·赫舍尔-伯恩斯(Tim Hirschel-Burns)在自己的个人博客上写道。

Perhaps the underlying model, of reforming a troubled country by installing a promising leader, might have the problem backward, he argued. Perhaps change needs to come bottom-up, even if this is harder and messier and takes longer.

他认为,这种基本的模式,即通过安插一位有前途的领导人来改革一个陷入困境的国家,效果可能适得其反。也许改变需要自下而上,即使那更困难,更混乱,需要更长时间。

“People in these countries, just as we are, are largely products of their environments,” he wrote.

“这些国家的人们,就像我们一样,总体上是环境的产物,”他写道。

Treating Suu Kyi as somehow above Myanmar’s problems allowed the world to see only her “moral righteousness and bravery rather than the political force she represented,” he added.

他还表示,以某种方式将昂山素季置于缅甸的问题之上,导致全世界只看到了她的“道德正义和勇敢,没看到她所代表的政治力量”。

“People want democracy in the sense of being rid of dictatorship and having a leader that’s popularly elected,” said Thant Myint-U, a historian and former United Nations official. “But that’s very different from accepting the whole panoply of liberal values, especially when it comes to issues of race, ethnicity or gender equality.”

“人们所希望的民主是摆脱独裁统治,有一个民选领导人,”史学家、前联合国官员丹敏(Thant Myint-U)说。“但这与接受自由主义价值观的全部理念非常不同,尤其是在涉及种族、民族或性别平等的问题上。”

It is worth asking how much of the Western anger now directed at Suu Kyi, including calls to revoke her Nobel Prize, is partly buyers’ remorse from supporters who regret their own role in transforming her into such a powerful symbol.

值得思考的是,现在西方对昂山素季的愤怒,包括取消她的诺贝尔奖(Nobel Prize)的呼声,有多少是来自懊悔的支持者,他们曾经出力将她变成如此强大的象征,现在则追悔莫及。

Andrew Selth, a professor at the Griffith Asia Institute, wrote in a recent article, “If Suu Kyi had so far to fall, it is because the international community raised her so high.”

前不久,格里菲斯亚洲研究所(Griffith Asia Institute)的教授安德鲁·塞尔思(Andrew Selth)在一篇文章中写道,“如果昂山素季现在倒台,那是因为国际社会把她捧得太高了。”

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表