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如何在美国后院获得战略优势?俄罗斯:用石油

更新时间:2017-10-30 18:27:57 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Russia Uses Its Oil Giant, Rosneft, as a Foreign Policy Tool
如何在美国后院获得战略优势?俄罗斯:用石油

Russia is increasingly wielding oil as a geopolitical tool, spreading its influence around the world and challenging the interests of the United States.

俄罗斯日益将石油当作地缘政治工具,在全球各地建立影响力,挑战美国的利益。

But Moscow risks running into trouble, as it lends money and makes deals in turbulent economies and shaky political climates.

但是,莫斯科在动荡的经济体和不稳定的经济气氛下提供贷款和做交易,有可能把自己也拖下水。

The strategy faces a crucial test this week in Venezuela, a Russian ally that must come up with $1 billion to avert defaults on its debts.

它的战略本周在委内瑞拉面临着一个重大考验,因为俄罗斯的这个盟友必须拿出10亿美元才能避免债务违约。

Russia has been making a flurry of loans and deals all centered on the Venezuelan oil business, money that could make the difference between the government’s collapse and its survival. In return, Moscow is getting a strategic advantage in Washington’s backyard.

俄罗斯以委内瑞拉的石油业务为中心,提供了不少贷款,达成了一系列交易,这些资金对委内瑞拉政府来说可能生死攸关。作为回报,莫斯科正在华盛顿的后院获得战略优势。

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela was all smiles this month on a visit to Moscow seeking fresh financial backing, thanking President Vladimir Putin of Russia “for your support, both political and diplomatic.”

委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)本月访问莫斯科寻求新的财政支持时笑容满面,他感谢了俄罗斯总统普京提供的“政治和外交支持”。

Moscow, through the state oil giant Rosneft, is trying to build influence in places where the United States has stumbled or power is up for grabs. Its efforts are also driven out of necessity, as U.S. and European sanctions have forced Rosneft to find new partners and investments elsewhere.

莫斯科正在试图通过该国石油巨头俄罗斯国家石油财团(Rosneft)在美国失势的地方或者权力可得的地方建立影响力。这种努力也是需要所致,因为受到美国和欧洲的制裁,Rosneft不得不在其他地方寻找新的合作伙伴和投资。

The company, which Russia has long relied on to finance its government and social programs, has been pushing deeply into countries like Cuba, China, Egypt and Vietnam, as well as tumultuous places where U.S. interests are at stake.

俄罗斯长期以来一直依靠Rosneft来为政府和社会项目提供资金,该公司已经深入进军古巴、中国、埃及、越南等国家,以及美国利益受到威胁的动荡地区。

Rosneft is looking for deals around the eastern Mediterranean and Africa, areas of tactical importance beyond the energy picture. It is wielding economic and political sway in northern Iraq, by making big oil and natural-gas deals in Kurdish territory. And it is angling to bid for control of Iranian oil fields as tensions between Tehran and Washington escalate.

Rosneft正在地中海东部和非洲地区寻求交易,这些地区在战术上的重要性超出了能源层面。通过在库尔德境内进行大量石油和天然气交易,俄罗斯在伊拉克北部拥有了经济和政治影响力。随着德黑兰和华盛顿之间的紧张加剧,该公司正在争取控制伊朗的一些油田。

Rosneft is “trying to create opportunities that can be extremely valuable in geopolitical ways,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They really give the Russian government unbelievable leverage on questions of importance to the United States.”

Rosneft“正在试图创造一些可能在地缘政治上极具价值的机会”,外交关系委员会的能源安全专家埃米·迈尔斯·贾菲(Amy Myers Jaffe)表示:“在对美国非常重要的问题上,它们真的给俄罗斯政府提供了惊人的筹码。”

The new push by Rosneft follows a clampdown on Russia.

Rosneft新一轮的努力是在俄罗斯遭受打压之后开展的。

Rosneft, which is 50 percent owned by the Russian state, is led by Igor I. Sechin, a former deputy prime minister and a close Putin ally. After the Russian invasion of Crimea three years ago, the United States and Europe hit Sechin with sanctions.

俄罗斯政府拥有Rosneft50%的股份,该公司的领导者伊戈尔·I·谢钦(Igor I. Sechin)是前副总理,也是普京的盟友。三年前俄罗斯入侵克里米亚之后,美国和欧洲对谢钦进行了制裁。

Since then, Exxon Mobil and other Western oil companies have been prevented from using their technological expertise to help Rosneft develop deepwater, shale and Arctic oil and gas fields. That has forced Rosneft to go far and wide to find new oil fields to replace its reserves.

此后,埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)等西方石油公司利用其技术专长来帮助Rosneft进行深水项目、页岩和北极油气田开发受到阻碍,因此Rosneft不得不广泛撒网寻找新的油田来取代其储备。

Rosneft’s biggest bet so far is Venezuela. Over the past three years, Russia and Rosneft have provided Caracas with $10 billion in financial assistance, helping Venezuela stave off default at least twice under the weight of as much as $150 billion in debt.

俄罗斯迄今最大的赌注是委内瑞拉。过去三年来,俄罗斯和该公司已经为加拉加斯提供了100亿美元的经济援助,并在委内瑞拉高达1500亿美元的债务额高压下,帮助该国至少避免了两次违约。

Russia is effectively taking China’s place as Venezuela’s principal banker. While President Hugo Chávez was in power, China lent Venezuela tens of billions of dollars for projects to be paid for with oil. But China quietly stopped making new loans, leaving Russia to fill the void.

俄罗斯正在取代中国的位置,成为委内瑞拉主要的银行推手。乌戈·查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)总统执政时,中国向委内瑞拉提供了数以百亿美元计的项目贷款,用石油来偿还。但中国悄然停止发放新的贷款,俄罗斯现在来填补了这个空白。

Last year, Rosneft took a 49.9 percent stake in Citgo, the Venezuelan state oil company’s refining subsidiary in the United States, as collateral for a $1.5 billion loan to the Venezuelan company. The state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, used the money to pay its bills and keep its oil fields producing.

去年,Rosneft获得了委内瑞拉国有石油公司在美国的炼油子公司雪铁戈石油公司(Citgo)49.9%的股份,作为向该公司提供15亿美元贷款的抵押品。委内瑞拉的这家国有石油公司名为委内瑞拉国营石油公司(Petróleos de Venezuela,简称PDVSA),它用这笔钱来支付账单,维持油田的生产。

The deal was sharply criticized by members of Congress, who warned that an eventual Russian takeover of Citgo would threaten national security. Citgo operates about 4 percent of U.S. refining capacity and has a sprawling network of pipelines and gas stations. And Caracas remains highly dependent on the U.S. market, since few refineries outside the United States can process large quantities of low-quality Venezuela crude.

美国国会议员大肆批评这笔交易,警告说俄罗斯可能最终会接管雪铁戈石油公司,威胁到美国的国家安全。雪铁戈石油公司占美国炼油能力的4%左右,拥有庞大的管道和加油站网络。加拉加斯仍然高度依赖美国市场,因为美国之外的炼油厂基本上处理不了大批量低质的委内瑞拉原油。

In April, Rosneft went further, providing a $1 billion advance payment for crude oil produced by the state oil company, crucial aid for it to make nearly $3 billion in payments to bondholders.

4月份,Rosneft更进一步,向委内瑞拉国营石油公司生产的原油提供了10亿美元的预付款,为该国将要到期的近30亿美元债券提供了关键援助。

But Russia’s investments are not without risk. Venezuela’s oil fields are aging and in disrepair. Oil service companies have been withdrawing after years of partial payments for their work. And fresh U.S. sanctions have largely prohibited long-term loan transactions with PDVSA or investments in other new government debt, making Venezuela’s financial straits even more acute.

但俄罗斯的投资并非没有风险。委内瑞拉的油田正在老化,处于失修状态。石油服务公司多年来没有收到部分款项,已经不再为它提供服务。而美国新采取的制裁措施基本禁止为委内瑞拉国营石油公司提供长期贷款交易,以及投资该国政府的其他新债务,使得委内瑞拉的财政困难雪上加霜。

“Russia is the only country that can give Venezuela a lifeline to survive through the rest of the year,” said Francisco J. Monaldi, an energy policy analyst at Rice University. “China has the capacity but not the willingness to do it, and that’s why Venezuela is so desperate to get the Russian support. There is no other way out.”

“俄罗斯是唯一可以让委内瑞拉在今年余下时间里生存下来的国家,”莱斯大学(Rice University)能源政策分析师弗朗西斯科·J·莫纳尔迪(Francisco J. Monaldi)说:“中国有能力但是不愿意这样做,这就是为什么委内瑞拉如此绝望地想要得到俄罗斯的支持。它没有别的办法了。”

Venezuela is now Rosneft’s second-largest source of crude, after Russia itself. The Russian company resells about 225,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan oil, equivalent to 13 percent of Venezuela’s exports.

委内瑞拉现在是Rosneft的第二大原油来源国,仅次于俄罗斯自己。该公司每天转售委内瑞拉石油约22.5万桶,相当于委内瑞拉出口总量的13%。

All the wheeling and dealing appears to be at its most aggressive in Venezuela, where Moscow’s engagement is more risky.

在委内瑞拉,生意上的坑蒙拐骗肆虐猖狂,莫斯科在那里的行动变得更加危险。

The Venezuelan government says it has more than $9 billion in currency reserves, though much of that is gold that must be sent abroad to liquidate, a transaction that can take time.

委内瑞拉政府自称拥有超过90亿美元的货币储备,但其中很多是黄金,必须送去国外才能变现,而这可能需要时间。

The next major debt payment comes due Thursday, for $1.2 billion, on a PDVSA bond that is maturing. Flirting with default, the company scrambled to pay most but not all of a $1 billion bond due Friday, while the country still owes $350 million more in payments that were due this month.

下一笔巨额债务周四到期,是委内瑞拉国营石油公司发行的价值12亿美元的债券。对违约不甚在意的该公司,匆匆偿还了周五到期的10亿美元债券中的大部分而非全部,而委内瑞拉还未偿还本月到期的3.5亿美元。

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