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核扩散阴云笼罩亚洲:朝鲜把日韩推向拥核?

更新时间:2017-10-30 10:57:29 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Rouses Neighbors to Reconsider Nuclear Weapons
核扩散阴云笼罩亚洲:朝鲜把日韩推向拥核?

As North Korea races to build a weapon that for the first time could threaten American cities, its neighbors are debating whether they need their own nuclear arsenals.

随着朝鲜快速制造一个可能首次威胁美国城市的武器,它的邻国们在仔细考虑是否需要拥有本国的核武库。

The North’s rapidly advancing capabilities have scrambled military calculations across the region, and doubts are growing the United States will be able to keep the atomic genie in the bottle.

朝鲜正在迅速提高的军事能力已打乱了整个地区的军事考量,人们对美国能够将原子弹这个妖怪关在瓶子里的能力产生了怀疑。

For the first time in recent memory, there is a daily argument raging in both South Korea and Japan — sometimes in public, more often in private — about the nuclear option, driven by worry that the United States might hesitate to defend the countries if doing so might provoke a missile launched from the North at Los Angeles or Washington.

韩国和日本每天都上演着关于核选择的激烈争论,这种争论有时是公开的,但更多是私下的,这在近期记忆里尚属首次。发生这种争论的原因是,这两个国家担心,美国对它们的保护可能激起朝鲜向洛杉矶或华盛顿发射导弹时,它在这么做时可能会有所犹豫。

In South Korea, polls show 60 percent of the population favors building nuclear weapons. And nearly 70 percent want the United States to reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield use, which were withdrawn a quarter-century ago.

在韩国,民调显示60%的人口支持制造核武器。近70%的人希望美国重新部署用于战场的战术核武器,这种武器已于25年前从韩国撤走。

There is very little public support for nuclear arms in Japan, the only nation ever to suffer a nuclear attack, but many experts believe that could reverse quickly if North and South Korea both had arsenals.

日本是唯一一个遭受过核打击的国家,虽然日本公众对核武器的支持率很低,但许多专家认为,如果朝鲜和韩国都拥有核武器的话,这种支持率可能会迅速逆转。

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has campaigned for a military buildup against the threat from the North, and Japan sits on a stockpile of nuclear material that could power an arsenal of 6,000 weapons. Last Sunday, he won a commanding majority in parliamentary elections, fueling his hopes of revising the nation’s pacifist Constitution.

日本首相安倍晋三一直在推动加强该国的军事力量,以应对朝鲜的威胁,日本已拥有大量现成的核原料,可供6000件武器使用。上周日,安倍晋三在议会选举中赢得了遥遥领先的多数,这让他修改日本和平宪法的希望进一步增长。

This brutal calculus over how to respond to North Korea is taking place in a region where several nations have the material, the technology, the expertise and the money to produce nuclear weapons.

有关如何应对朝鲜的严酷考量正在这个地区上演,其中的几个国家已经拥有制造核武器的原料、技术、专业知识和资金。

Beyond South Korea and Japan, there is already talk in Australia, Myanmar and Vietnam about whether it makes sense to remain nuclear-free if others arm themselves — heightening fears that North Korea could set off a chain reaction in which one nation after another feels threatened and builds the bomb.

除了韩国和日本,澳大利亚、缅甸和越南也已有人在谈论保持无核化是否仍有意义的问题,如果其他国家用核武器武装自己的话。这就增加了人们对朝鲜可能会引发一种连锁反应的担心:受威胁的感觉让这些国家一个接一个地制造原子弹。

In a recent interview, Henry A. Kissinger, one of the few nuclear strategists from the early days of the Cold War still living, said he had little doubt where things were headed.

在最近的一次采访中,亨利·A·基辛格(Henry A. Kissinger)说,他基本上可以肯定事态的发展方向。冷战初期的核战略家中仍活着的已经不多了,基辛格是其中之一。

“If they continue to have nuclear weapons,” he said of North Korea, “nuclear weapons must spread in the rest of Asia.”

“如果他们继续拥有核武器,”基辛格提到朝鲜时说,“核武器就必将扩散到亚洲其他地区。”

“It cannot be that North Korea is the only Korean country in the world that has nuclear weapons, without the South Koreans trying to match it. Nor can it be that Japan will sit there,” he added. “So therefore we’re talking about nuclear proliferation.”

“朝鲜是朝鲜半岛上唯一拥有核武器的国家,韩国人不会试图与朝鲜匹敌,这是不可能的。”他补充说,日本在那里坐视也是不可能的,“因此,我们所谈论的是核扩散问题。”

Such fears have been raised before, in Asia and elsewhere, without materializing, and the global consensus against the spread of nuclear weapons is arguably stronger than ever.

这种担心在亚洲和其他地方出现过,但没有成为现实,而且按理说,全球对核武器扩散的共识现在比以往任何时候都更加强烈。

But North Korea is testing America’s nuclear umbrella — its commitment to defend its allies with nuclear weapons if necessary — in a way no nation has in decades. Similar fears of abandonment in the face of the Soviet Union’s growing arsenal helped lead Britain and France to go nuclear in the 1950s.

但朝鲜正在以几十年来别国未曾用过的方式来检验美国提供的核保护伞,即如果必要的话,美国会使用核武器保卫自己盟友的承诺。面对苏联日益增长的核武库时,英国和法国有过被美国抛弃的类似担忧,这种担忧让英法两国在1950年代发展了自己的核武器。

President Trump, who leaves Nov. 3 for a visit to Asia, has intensified these insecurities in the region. During his presidential campaign, he spoke openly of letting Japan and South Korea build nuclear arms even as he argued they should pay more to support the American military bases there.

将在11月3日启程出访亚洲的特朗普总统,已经加强了该地区的这些不安全感。他曾在总统竞选期间公开表示让日本和韩国发展核武器,尽管他同时表示,日韩应该拿出更多的钱来支持美国设在两国的军事基地。

“There is going to be a point at which we just can’t do this anymore,” he told The New York Times in March 2016. Events, he insisted, were pushing both nations toward their own nuclear arsenals anyway.

特朗普在2016年3月接受《纽约时报》采访时曾说,“将会有这么一个时刻,我们不能再继续这样做下去。”他坚称,发生的事情已经在把日韩两国推上各自的核武器道路。

Mr. Trump has not raised that possibility in public since taking office. But he has rattled the region by engaging in bellicose rhetoric against North Korea and dismissing talks as a “waste of time.”

自从上任以来,特朗普尚未在公开场合提及上述可能性。但他对朝鲜发表好战言论、认为与其谈判是“浪费时间”的态度,让该地区感到不安。

In Seoul and Tokyo, many have already concluded that North Korea will keep its nuclear arsenal, because the cost of stopping it will be too great — and they are weighing their options.

朝鲜将保留自己的核武库,因为停止核计划的代价太高,这是首尔和东京的许多人已经得出的结论,他们也在权衡本国的选择。

Capability to Build the Bomb

制造核弹的能力

Long before North Korea detonated its first nuclear device, several of its neighbors secretly explored going nuclear themselves.

早在朝鲜引爆了第一个核装置之前,朝鲜的几个邻国就已在秘密地探索本国发展核武器的问题。

Japan briefly considered building a “defensive” nuclear arsenal in the 1960s despite its pacifist Constitution. South Korea twice pursued the bomb in the 1970s and 1980s, and twice backed down under American pressure.

尽管有和平宪法,但日本曾一度考虑在上个世纪60年代考虑过建造一个“防御性”核武库的问题。韩国也曾在1970年代和1980年代两次打算制造原子弹,并两次都在美国的压力下罢休。

Today, there is no question that both South Korea and Japan have the material and expertise to build a weapon.

目前已毫无疑问的是,韩国和日本都拥有制造核武器的原料和专业技能。

All that is stopping them is political sentiment and the risk of international sanctions. Both nations signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, but it is unclear how severely other countries would punish two of the world’s largest economies for violating the agreement.

只剩下政治情绪和国际制裁的风险在阻止两国发展核弹。日韩两国都签署了《核不扩散条约》,但尚不清楚的是,其他国家对世界上两个大经济体违反条约将怎样严厉惩罚。

South Korea has 24 nuclear reactors and a huge stockpile of spent fuel from which it can extract plutonium — enough for more than 4,300 bombs, according to a 2015 paper by Charles D. Ferguson, president of the Federation of American Scientists.

根据美国科学家联合会(Federation of American Scientists)会长查尔斯·D·弗格森(Charles D. Ferguson)2015年发表的一篇文章,韩国有24个核反应堆和大量的乏燃料储备,可以从这些乏燃料中提取足够4300多枚核弹使用的钚。

Japan once pledged never to stockpile more nuclear fuel than it can burn off. But it has never completed the necessary recycling and has 10 tons of plutonium stored domestically and another 37 tons overseas.

日本曾承诺永远不储备比国内能用掉的总量更多的核燃料。但该国从未实现必要的核燃料回收,并已经在国内储存了10吨的钚,还另有37吨存放在海外。

“We keep reminding the Japanese of their pledge,” said Ernest J. Moniz, chief executive of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and an energy secretary in the Obama administration, noting that it would take years if not decades for Japan to consume its fissile material because almost all its nuclear plants have remained offline since the 2011 Fukushima accident.

“我们不断提醒日本人他们做出的承诺,”核威胁行动计划(Nuclear Threat Initiative)的首席执行官欧内斯特·J·莫尼兹(Ernest J.Moniz)说,他曾在奥巴马政府担任能源部长。他指出由于日本几乎所有的核电站自从2011年的福岛核事故以后都停止了运行,日本把其拥有的裂变原料耗尽需要几年或长达几十年的时间。

China, in particular, has objected to Japan’s stockpile, warning that its traditional rival is so advanced technologically that it could use the material to quickly build a large arsenal.

中国尤其反对日本的核原料储备,还警告说,中国的这个传统竞争对手在技术上的先进程度,足以让该国用这些材料迅速制造出一个庞大的核武库。

Analysts often describe Japan as a “de facto” nuclear state, capable of building a weapon within a year or two. “Building a physical device is not that difficult anymore,” said Tatsujiro Suzuki, former deputy chairman of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission.

分析人士经常将日本描述为“事实上的”拥核国家,能够在一两年内制造出核武器。“建造一个物理设备已不再那么困难了,”日本原子能委员会(Atomic Energy Commission)前副委员长铃木达治郎(Tatsujiro Suzuki)说。

Japan already possesses long-range missile technology, he added, but would need some time to develop more sophisticated communications and control systems.

他还说,日本已经拥有远程导弹技术,但在研制更复杂的通讯和控制系统上仍需要一些时间。

South Korea may be even further along, with a fleet of advanced missiles that carry conventional warheads. In 2004, the government disclosed that its scientists had dabbled in reprocessing and enriching nuclear material without first informing the International Atomic Energy Agency as required by treaty.

韩国也许已经走得更远,韩国已拥有一批能携带常规弹头的先进导弹。韩国政府曾在2004年披露,该国的科学家曾涉足重新加工和浓缩核原料的工作,但没有按照核不扩散条约的要求事先通知国际原子能机构。

“If we decide to stand on our own feet and put our resources together, we can build nuclear weapons in six months,” said Suh Kune-yull, a professor of nuclear engineering at Seoul National University. “The question is whether the president has the political will.”

“如果我们决定依靠自己、把我们的资源集中起来的话,我们可以在六个月内造出核武器来,”首尔国立大学核工程教授徐钧烈(Suh Kune-yull,音)说。“问题是总统是否有这个政治意愿。”

In Seoul, a Rising Call for Arms

首尔核武呼声高涨

President Moon Jae-in has been firm in his opposition to nuclear weapons. He insists that building them or reintroducing American ones to South Korea would make it even more difficult to persuade North Korea to scrap its own.

韩国总统文在寅反对核武器的立场一直很坚定。他坚持认为,制造核武器、或让美国人在韩国重新部署核武器,会让说服朝鲜放弃其核武器变得更加困难。

Though Mr. Moon has received high approval ratings since his election in May, his view is increasingly a minority one.

尽管文在寅自从今年5月当选以来,一直有很高的支持率,但认同他在核武器问题上所持观点的人越来越少。

Calls for nuclear armament used to be dismissed as chatter from South Korea’s nationalist fringe. Not anymore. Now people often complain that South Korea cannot depend on the United States, its protector of seven decades.

对核军备的呼声曾被认为是来自韩国民族主义边缘的噪音。如今不再是这样。人们现在经常抱怨说,韩国不能继续依赖为其充当了70年保护者的美国。

The opposition Liberty Korea party called on the United States to reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea in August after the North tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared capable of reaching the mainland United States.

今年8月,朝鲜试验了一枚似乎能够抵达美国本土的洲际弹道导弹之后,反对派自由韩国党(Liberty Korea)呼吁美国将战术核武器重新引入韩国。

“If the U.N. Security Council can’t rein in North Korea with its sanctions, we will have no option but to withdraw from the Nonproliferation Treaty,” Won Yoo-chul, a party leader, said in September.

“如果联合国安理会不能用制裁遏制朝鲜的话,我们将别无选择,只能退出不扩散条约,”该党领导人元裕哲在9月份表示。

Given the failure of sanctions, threats and negotiations to stop North Korea, South Koreans are increasingly convinced the North will never give up its nuclear weapons. But they also oppose risking a war with a military solution.

由于制裁、威胁和谈判都未能阻止朝鲜发展核武器,越来越多的韩国人认为,朝鲜永远不会放弃自己的核武器。但韩国人也反对有导致战争风险的军事解决方法。

Most believe the Trump administration, despite its tough talk, will ultimately acquiesce, perhaps settling for a freeze that allows the North to keep a small arsenal. And many fear that would mean giving the North the ultimate blackmail tool — and a way to keep the United States at bay.

大多数人认为,尽管特朗普政府言辞强硬,但最终还是会默然接受现实,也许会达成协议,把朝鲜的核武库冻结在一个较小的规模上。许多人担心,这将意味着让朝鲜保留最终的敲诈工具,也保留一种不让美国靠近的方法。

“The reason North Korea is developing a hydrogen bomb and intercontinental ballistic missiles is not to go to war with the United States,” said Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute near Seoul. “It’s to stop the Americans from intervening in armed skirmishes or full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.”

“朝鲜研制氢弹和洲际弹道导弹,不是为了与美国打仗,”首尔附近的世宗研究所(Sejong Institute)的分析师郑相昌(Cheong Seong-chang)说。“而是为了阻止美国人介入朝鲜半岛的武装冲突或全面战争。”

The closer the North gets to showing it can strike the United States, the more nervous South Koreans become about being abandoned. Some have asked whether Washington will risk the destruction of an American city by intervening, for example, if the North attempts to occupy a border island, as its soldiers have practiced.

朝鲜越显示其接近可以打击美国的能力,韩国人对被放弃的担心就越紧张。一些人曾问,如果朝鲜像其军队演习中所做的那样,试图占领一个韩朝边界岛屿的话,华盛顿是否会冒下美国城市被毁的风险进行干预。

For many in South Korea, the solution is a homegrown nuclear deterrent.

对许多韩国人来说,解决办法是本土的核威慑力量。

“If we don’t respond with our own nuclear deterrence of some kind, our people will live like nuclear hostages of North Korea,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former presidential secretary for security strategy.

“如果我们不用自己的某种核威慑来响应的话,我们的人民就将像朝鲜的核人质那样生活,”曾担任总统安全战略秘书的全相勋(Cheon Seong-whun)说。

With nuclear weapons of its own, the South would gain leverage and could force North Korea back to the bargaining table, where the two sides could whittle down their arsenals through negotiations, some hawks argue.

一些鹰派人士争辩说,拥有自己的核武器,将让韩国获得砝码,并可能迫使朝鲜回到谈判桌上,让双方通过谈判来削减各自的核武库。

But given the risks of going nuclear, others say Seoul should focus on persuading Washington to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons.

但其他人说,考虑到本国发展核武器的风险,首尔应该把重点放在说服华盛顿重新部署战术核武器上。

“The redeployment of American tactical nuclear weapons would be the surest way” to deter North Korea, Defense Minister Song Young-moo said last month, but he added that it would be difficult to get Washington to agree to that.

“重新部署美国的战术核武器将是(威慑朝鲜)的最可靠方法,”韩国国防部长宋永武上个月说,但他补充说,让华盛顿同意这样做将会很困难。

In Tokyo, Cautious Debate

讨论在东京谨慎进行

The discussion in Japan has been more subdued than in South Korea, no surprise after 70 years of public education about the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

日本正在进行的讨论一直比韩国的更温和,这一点也不令人惊讶,因为日本有关广岛和长崎有过的恐怖进行大众教育已经70年了。

But Japan has periodically considered developing nuclear weapons every decade since the 1960s.

但自从1960年代以来,日本每隔十年也会间发性地考虑发展核武器的问题。

In 2002, a top aide to Junichiro Koizumi, the prime minister then, caused a furor by suggesting Japan might one day break with its policy of never building, possessing or allowing nuclear arms on its territory.

2002年,当时的日本首相小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)的一名高级助手曾引发了一场风波,这位助手暗示,日本可能有一天会打破自己永不在本国领土上建造、拥有或存放核武器的政策。

North Korea has reopened that question.

朝鲜让日本重温这个问题。

Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister seen as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Abe, has argued that Japan needs to debate its nuclear policy given the threat from North Korea.

日本前防卫大臣石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)曾被视为是日本首相安倍晋三的潜在挑战者,他认为,鉴于朝鲜的威胁,日本需要就本国的核政策展开辩论。

Mr. Abe has stopped short of calling for a re-evaluation of the country’s position on nuclear weapons. But he has increased military spending and echoed Mr. Trump’s hawkish position against the North.

安倍晋三还未迈出要求日本重新评估自己在核武器问题上的立场这一步。但他增加了军费开支,也在朝鲜问题上表示了和特朗普一样的强硬立场。

Mr. Abe’s administration has already determined that nuclear weapons would not be prohibited under the Constitution if maintained only for self-defense.

安倍晋三政府已经决定,如果核武器只是为了自卫的话,将不会受到宪法的禁止。

The Japanese public is largely opposed to nuclear weapons with polls indicating fewer than one in 10 support nuclear armament.

大多数日本民众反对核武器,民意调查显示,支持核军备的人口比例不到十分之一。

But Japan’s relations with South Korea have long been strained, and if Seoul armed itself, those numbers could shift.

但日本与韩国的关系一直比较紧张的状态,如果首尔方面决定用核武器武装自己的话,日本支持核武的人数可能会改变。

Some analysts say the discussion is aimed at getting additional reassurance from Washington. “We always do that when we become a little upset about the credibility of the extended U.S. deterrence,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

一些分析人士说,这些讨论的目的是为了从华盛顿得到更多的保证。“当我们对美国威慑力量延伸的可信度感到有点不安时,我们总是这样做,”东京国立政策研究大学院大学(National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)教授道下德成(Narushige Michishita)说。

Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence, a political risk consultancy, said Japan would rethink its position on nuclear weapons if it suspects the United States would let it down.

政治风险咨询机构Teneo Intelligence的日本问题分析师托比阿斯·哈里斯(Tobias Harris)表示,如果日本怀疑美国会放弃自己的话,日本会重新考虑自己在核武器方面的立场。

“We’re kind of in uncharted waters as far as this goes,” he said. “It’s hard to know exactly what the threshold is that will lead the Japanese public’s switch to flip.”

“就这点而言,我们有些步入未知领域的感觉,”他说。“很难确切知道让日本公众转向支持核武器的门槛。”

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