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特朗普的对朝策略吓到我了

更新时间:2017-10-15 12:33:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Scary Strategy on North Korea
特朗普的对朝策略吓到我了

On just the first day of a war between the United States and North Korea, according to a Stanford University assessment, one million people could be killed.

根据斯坦福大学的评估,如果美国和朝鲜开战,仅第一天就可能有100万人死亡。

Yet after my five-day visit to North Korea with three New York Times colleagues, such a nuclear war seems terrifyingly imaginable. In the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, it was clear that President Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea had backfired and is being exploited by Kim Jong-un for his own propaganda and military mobilization.

在我与《纽约时报》三位同事对朝鲜进行了为期五天的访问之后,这样可怕的核战争似乎不难想像。在首都平壤,特朗普总统“彻底摧毁”朝鲜的威胁明显产生了事与愿违的效果,金正恩正在利用这个威胁展开自己的宣传和军事动员。

The country has seized on Trump’s words to reinforce its official narrative that its nuclear arsenal is defensive, meant to protect Koreans from bullying American imperialists. And North Korean officials use Trump’s bombast as an excuse for their own.

朝鲜抓住特朗普的言论来支持他们的官方说辞——核武库是防御性的,用来保护朝鲜人免受美帝国主义者的欺凌。朝鲜官员还以特朗普的炮轰作为借口。

“The American Trump uttered nonsense about demolishing our country,” a military officer, Lt. Col. Hwang Myong-jin, told me. “So as soon as our supreme leader gives us an order, we will turn the entire country of the U.S. into fire.”

“美国的特朗普说要毁掉我们国家是胡扯,”陆军中校黄明镇(Hwang Myong-jin,音)对我说道。“一旦最高领袖下令,我们就会把整个美国变成烈焰战场。”

One typical propaganda image shows a powerful North Korean soldier stepping on the face of an evil-looking blond American soldier and reads, “Death to invaders.”

在一张非常具有代表性的宣传画中,只见一名孔武有力的朝鲜士兵踩着一个形象邪恶的金发美国士兵的脸,上面写着“侵略者必亡”。

Kim doesn’t want to appear weak and seem as if he is caving to American pressure, and officials in North Korea repeatedly cited Trump’s threats to justify their military mobilization and their reluctance to engage in dialogue or conciliation.

金正恩不想表现得弱势,好像他屈服于美国人的压力似的,朝鲜官员多次援引特朗普的威胁言论,来证明他们的军事动员以及不愿接受对话与调解是有原因的。

“The current Trump administration’s aggressive remarks about how he can totally destroy my country make it unthinkable that we can start any dialogue,” said Ri Yong-pil, a senior Foreign Ministry official.

“现在的特朗普政府关于如何彻底摧毁我国的侵略性言论,已经让任何对话都变得无法想像了,”外交部高级官员李容弼(Ri Yong-pil)说。

My visit left me thinking that Trump’s entire strategy rests on a series of fundamental and dangerous misconceptions.

这次访问让我觉得,特朗普的整个战略是建立在一系列彻底而危险的误解之上的。

The first misconception is that sanctions and talk of war will lead North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons. Every North Korean official we spoke to insisted that this was impossible, and the U.S. intelligence community likewise believes that this just won’t happen, for (as I mentioned in my last column) North Korea sees nuclear warheads as crucial to its survival.

第一个误解是:制裁和战争威胁将导致朝鲜放弃核武器。我们见过的每个朝鲜官员都坚称那是不可能的,美国情报界也有同样的看法(我在上一篇专栏中提到过),朝鲜认为核弹头对国家存亡至关重要。

We did see signs that sanctions are biting, for businessmen complained about China cracking down on trade; gas prices have doubled; and electricity is rationed. Power outages are routine even in the capital.

我们确实看到制裁对朝鲜造成的冲击:商人抱怨中国取缔贸易往来,天然气价格翻了一番,还采取了限电措施。即使在首都,停电也是常有的事。

Yet solar panels are becoming more common, and Kim has moved to liberalize the economy in ways that generate growth despite sanctions. Collective farms are allowing greater use of private plots, factory managers enjoy more responsibility to turn profits and street markets are more tolerated than before.

然而,太阳能电池板正变得越来越普遍,而且金正恩启动了经济自由化,让朝鲜在制裁之下还是取得了经济的增长。集体农场日益放开私人土地使用权,工厂管理人员对盈利负起了更大的责任,政府对街头市场也变得更加宽容。

The bite of sanctions on elites is also dulled by a Kim initiative to inject a bit of fun into life in the capital (special permission is needed for North Koreans to visit Pyongyang, let alone live there). This is still the most totalitarian country in the world, but it does have an amusement park, a water park, a ski area and a dolphin show — North Korea’s version of SeaWorld. (I genuinely enjoyed the dolphin show, until it ended with wide-screen images of missiles.)

制裁对朝鲜权贵阶层的打击,也被金正恩给平壤生活注入的一些乐趣冲淡了(朝鲜人前往平壤需要获得特别的许可,更不用说住在那里了)。朝鲜仍然是世界上最极权的国家,但它确实有一个游乐园、一个水上乐园、一个滑雪场,还有海豚表演——这就是朝鲜版的海洋世界(SeaWorld)(我真的很喜欢那里的海豚表演,除了结束时宽屏幕上出现了导弹的画面外)。

Economic reforms helped generate G.D.P. growth, after long stagnation, of 3.9 percent last year, according to South Korea’s central bank. That’s more than twice the growth rate last year in the U.S. of 1.6 percent.

韩国央行的数据显示,经济改革推动了朝鲜GDP的增长,在长期停滞后,去年该国经济增长达到3.9%。是美国1.6%的两倍多。

The second American misconception is that China can transform North Korean behavior. We’ve always exaggerated Chinese influence on North Korea.

美国的第二个误解是中国可以改变朝鲜的行事方式。我们一直在夸大中国对朝鲜的影响力。

North Korea has refused even to allow a visit by the Chinese point man for North Korean affairs, Kong Xuanyou. “We know what Kong would say, so he doesn’t need to say it here,” one North Korean official told me scornfully.

朝鲜甚至拒绝了中国对朝事务要员孔铉佑的访问。“我们知道他会说什么,所以他不需要来这里说,”一位朝鲜官员轻蔑地告诉我。

The third American misconception is the assumption that the North Korean regime is near collapse, and that huffing and puffing will accelerate this. In the early 1990s my wife and I chose to be Tokyo correspondents for The Times partly because that would enable us to cover North Korea — and its impending collapse. We’re still waiting.

美国的第三个误解是认为朝鲜政权已经接近崩溃,而咆哮恐吓会加速这种崩溃。在1990年代初,我和妻子选择成为《纽约时报》驻东京记者,部分原因就是可以报道朝鲜的情况——以及它即将发生的崩溃。我们现在还在等待。

Yes, at some point it’ll happen, but don’t count on it tomorrow. And the economic reforms, however modest, may give the regime a bit more life.

是的,有一天它是会崩溃的,但不要指望明天。朝鲜经济改革的幅度虽然很小,但这可能会给这个政权续一点点命。

Trump has genuinely increased the economic pressure on North Korea through United Nations sanctions, and the pinch may increase. But one of the worst mistakes in international relations, plaguing us from Vietnam to Iraq, is to operate on wishful thinking rather than reality, and I fear that’s what’s happening here in a perilous way. To be blunt, Trump’s strategy frightens me.

通过联合国制裁,特朗普确实增加了对朝鲜的经济压力,他们承受的阵痛可能会增加。但是,在国际关系中,最糟糕的错误之一就是基于一厢情愿的想法而不是事实来行事,从越南到伊拉克,我们都有过麻烦,我担心在朝鲜问题上的举动很危险。坦率地说,特朗普的策略吓到我了。

In speech and through Twitter, he is escalating a conflict and trumpeting military options as he insists on a goal of denuclearization that is unachievable, a tactic of Chinese pressure that is unrealistic and a premise of regime fragility that is wishful thinking.

在演讲和推文中,他正在升级一场冲突,并对军事选择大肆吹嘘,而他坚持主张的无核化目标是无法实现的,通过中国来施加压力的策略是不切实际的,认为朝鲜在政治上很脆弱的想法是一厢情愿的。

That’s how wars happen.

战争就是这样发生的。

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