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反对对朝动武,文在寅受美日“孤立”?

更新时间:2017-9-21 11:01:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

South Korea’s Leader Will Be Odd Man Out in Meeting With Trump and Shinzo Abe
反对对朝动武,文在寅受美日“孤立”?

SEOUL, South Korea — When President Moon Jae-in of South Korea sits down with President Trump and the Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, in New York on Thursday, he will be meeting two of his strongest allies in pressuring North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs.

韩国首尔——当韩国总统文在寅本周四在纽约与美国总统特朗普和日本首相安倍晋三会面时,他见到的将是两位在朝鲜核计划和导弹计划问题上,向朝鲜施压的最强大的盟友。

But Mr. Moon will also find himself a bit of the odd man out.

但是,文在寅也将发现自己与他们有点合不来。

As the three leaders prepared for their trilateral summit meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting this week, the White House has struck an increasingly bellicose tone toward North Korea. Mr. Trump, addressing the General Assembly on Tuesday, said the United States would “totally destroy North Korea” if necessary. Mr. Abe has been similarly hard-edged, supporting Washington’s approach.

随着三国领导人为在本周联合国大会的间隙举行三边首脑会晤作准备,白宫方面对朝鲜的口吻已变得越来越充满火药味。特朗普周二在联合国大会上发言时说,如果有必要,美国将“彻底摧毁朝鲜”。安倍晋三的态度也一直很强硬,并表示他支持华盛顿的立场。

Like Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe, Mr. Moon strongly advocates imposing sanctions and pressure on North Korea. But unlike them, he has repeatedly and categorically ruled out military action.

与特朗普和安倍晋三一样,文在寅也强烈主张对朝鲜采取制裁和施加压力。但与他们不同的是,文在寅已多次明确地排除了军事行动的可能性。

“President Moon appears isolated from the other two,” said Lee Won-deog, an expert on Korean-Japan relations at Kookmin University in Seoul. “There is a suspicion that Prime Minister Abe is using his close personal chemistry with President Trump to help shape the American leader’s views on South Korea.”

“文在寅看来与他们两人有隔阂,”首尔国民大学的韩国与日本关系专家李元徳(Lee Won-deog)说。“有人猜测,安倍晋三正在利用他与特朗普亲密的个人关系来帮助塑造这位美国领导人对韩国的看法。”

During his presidential campaign, Mr. Moon promised to seek dialogue with North Korea, insisting that sanctions alone would not persuade it to give up its nuclear missile program.

文在寅在总统竞选期间曾承诺与朝鲜寻求对话,他坚称,只靠制裁说服不了朝鲜放弃自己的其核导弹计划。

But as North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests have accelerated since his election in May, Mr. Moon has aligned himself closely with the tough line espoused by Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe, while continuing to oppose their openness to a military option. When the three leaders met on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit conference in Germany in July, they agreed to cooperate in enhancing their defense capabilities against the North Korean threat.

但是,自从文在寅今年5月当选总统以来,朝鲜已加快了核试验和导弹试验的步伐,虽然文在寅继续反对特朗普与安倍晋三对军事选择所持的开放态度,但也与两人结盟,一道支持强硬路线。今年7日,三国领导人在德国举行的20国集团首脑会议的间隙会晤时,均同意在加强防御能力方面合作,以对抗朝鲜的威胁。

Such an agreement between South Korea and Japan was highly unusual. South Koreans have been wary of giving Japan, its former colonial master, any reason to rearm its postwar pacifist military. The leadership in the South also does not want the country dragged into a struggle for regional hegemony between American-backed Japan and China, which is angry at Mr. Moon’s deployment of an American-made antimissile system on South Korean soil.

韩国与日本能达成这种协议非常不寻常。对于让日本有任何理由把其战后奉行和平主义的军队重新装备起来,韩国人一直保持警惕,日本曾对韩国进行殖民统治。韩国领导人也不希望韩国被拖入一场区域霸权斗争之中,这场斗争的一方是美国支持的日本,另一方是中国,中国对文在寅在韩国领土部署美国制造的反导弹系统很愤怒。

“Although there is not much common ground between Moon and Abe, the gravity of the North Korean nuclear crisis has brought them together in an uncomfortable partnership,” said Yun Duk-min, a former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy who now teaches at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.

“尽管文在寅与安倍晋三并没有太多的共同点,但朝鲜核危机的严重性让他们走到一起,结成了一个不舒服的伙伴关系,”韩国国家外交学院(Korea National Diplomatic Academy)前院长尹德民(Yun Duk-min,音)说,他目前在首尔的韩国外国语大学任教。

Some South Koreans suspect Mr. Abe of using the growing threat from the North to push his nationalist agenda at home. They also wonder whether Mr. Abe has been encouraging the Trump administration’s increasingly combative stance toward North Korea, making the situation even more volatile.

一些韩国人觉得,安倍晋三在利用朝鲜日益增长的威胁来推动他在国内的民族主义议程。他们也想知道,安倍晋三是否在鼓励特朗普政府对朝鲜采取越来越好斗的立场,使局面变得更加不稳定。

“More dialogue with North Korea would be a dead end,” Mr. Abe said in an Op-Ed published in The New York Times on Sunday. “I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table.”

“与朝鲜进行更多对话只会是死路一条,”安倍晋三周日在《纽约时报》发表观点文章说。“我坚决支持美国的立场,即所有选择都在考虑范围以内。”

Tough talk aside, Japan also fears military action on the Korean Peninsula, which could lead to a regionwide nuclear war, analysts said. By agreeing with Washington to put all options on the table, Mr. Abe is playing the role of reliable United States ally, while hoping to encourage China to moderate the North’s behavior, they said. But domestic factors are also probably at play.

分析人士说,撇开这些强硬语言,日本也对朝鲜半岛发生军事行动忧心忡忡,那有可能会导致一场区域内的核战争。他们说,安倍晋三同意华盛顿把所有选择都放在桌面上的说法,是在扮演美国可靠盟友的角色,同时希望鼓励中国出面来缓和朝鲜的行为。但日本国内的因素也可能起了作用。

“For Prime Minister Abe and his administration, the deeper issue is the way in which he and his supporters can use the North Korean missile tests to generate increasing apprehension throughout Japan that Japan cannot rely on the United States alone, that Japan needs to have a much more proactive military,” said Alexis Dudden, a professor of history at the University of Connecticut and an expert on Korea-Japan relations.

“对于安倍晋三及其政府来说,更深层次的问题是,他和他的支持者们如何能用朝鲜的导弹试验来增加全日本的忧虑,让人们认识到,日本不能单靠美国,日本需要有一个更主动出击的军队,”美国康涅狄格大学(University of Connecticut)历史学者、韩日关系专家亚力克西斯·杜登(Alexis Dudden)说。

Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe have tried to bring Mr. Moon into their fold on crucial areas.

特朗普和安倍晋三曾试图让文在寅在一些关键问题上与他们保持一致。

Mr. Abe, in a telephone call with Mr. Moon last week, took issue with South Korea’s plan to provide $8 million in humanitarian aid for North Korea’s malnourished children and pregnant women. He said it was not a good time to do so. Mr. Moon responded that humanitarian issues should be kept separate from politics.

安倍晋三上周与文在寅通电话时,对韩国向朝鲜营养不良的儿童和孕妇提供800万美元的人道主义援助计划提出异议。他说现在做这种事情时机不佳。文在寅的回应是,人道主义问题应该与政治分开。

Mr. Trump has accused Mr. Moon’s government of “appeasement,” saying that “talking is not the answer” in dealing with North Korea.

特朗普曾指责文在寅的政府“绥靖”,还说在对付朝鲜上,“谈判不是解决问题的办法”。

“If the righteous many don’t confront the wicked few, then evil will triumph,” Mr. Trump said in his General Assembly speech on Tuesday. The remarks were reminiscent of the “axis of evil” comments President George W. Bush used against Iran, Iraq and North Korea as he pursued his war on terror after the Sept. 11 attacks.

“如果正义的多数不去对抗邪恶的少数,邪恶就会得胜,”特朗普周二在联大讲话时说。这种说法让人想起了乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)总统在9·11袭击事件发生后致力于自己的反恐战争、把伊朗、伊拉克和朝鲜称为“邪恶轴心”的言论。

Mr. Trump’s pointed remarks in urging China, Russia and other countries to help rein in the North came after his top aides had similarly ratcheted up their language.

特朗普使用尖锐言论敦促中国、俄罗斯和其他国家帮助遏制朝鲜之前,他的助手们已开始使用类似的语言。

“This regime is so close now to threatening the United States and others with a nuclear weapon that we really have to move with a great sense of urgency on sanctions, on diplomacy and preparing, if necessary, a military option,” H. R. McMaster, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“这个政权现在已如此地接近使用核武器来威胁美国和其他国家的能力,以至于我们真的不得不以一种紧迫感来采取制裁和外交手段,并在有必要时,做好采取军事选择的准备,”特朗普的国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特(H.R. McMaster)在《福克斯周日新闻》(Fox News Sunday)节目上说。

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters on Monday that the United States had devised military options against North Korea that would not put the South’s capital, Seoul, at grave risk of retaliation. He refused to elaborate on what those might be.

美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)周一对记者说,美国已经设计出一种不会让韩国首都首尔遭受报复、针对朝鲜的军事选择。他拒绝详细说明其内容。

Most military planners have said that even limited military action against the North could easily escalate into a war with catastrophic results for both Koreas. The greater Seoul metropolitan area, home to 20 million, lies in the range of thousands of North Korean artillery pieces, rockets and short-range missiles.

大多数军事策划者都认为,即使是针对朝鲜的有限军事行动,也很容易升级为一场给朝鲜半岛的两个国家带来灾难性后果的战争。拥有2000万人口的首尔大都会地区处在朝鲜成千上万的火炮、火箭弹和短程导弹的射程以内。

Mr. Moon has repeatedly vowed to prevent the United States from bringing war to the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, he has begun sounding like his conservative predecessors, pledging “doom” for the Pyongyang government if it persists in conducting nuclear and missile tests. Last week, hours after North Korea fired its second intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan, Mr. Moon called talks with the country “impossible” unless it stopped such behavior.

文在寅一再发誓要阻止美国把战火烧到朝鲜半岛。与此同时,他的言论听上去正变得越来越像其保守派前任的说法,他承诺,如果平壤政府坚持进行核试验和导弹试验的话,会让朝鲜“毁灭”。上周,在朝鲜发射了第二枚飞越日本上空的中程弹道导弹的几小时之后,文在寅称“不可能”与朝鲜谈判,除非它停止这种行为。

As Mr. Moon has aligned himself more closely with Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe in recent weeks, however, some of his key liberal supporters have begun speaking out against that approach. They say tougher sanctions and Mr. Trump’s bombastic talk would only prompt North Korea to conduct more weapons tests. They urged Mr. Moon to return to his earlier hopes of guiding Washington to strike a deal with North Korea.

然而,随着文在寅近几周来已与特朗普和安倍晋三保持更一致的立场,他的一些自由派主要支持者也已开始对他的做法表示反对。他们说,更严厉的制裁、以及特朗普的大放厥词,只会促使朝鲜进行更多的武器试验。他们敦促文在寅回归他以前对引导华盛顿与朝鲜达成协议的希望。

But North Korea has undermined Mr. Moon’s initiative by ignoring his calls to stand down and start a dialogue, said Bong Young-shik, a researcher at Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies in Seoul.

但是,首尔延顺大学朝鲜问题研究所研究员奉英植(Bong Young-shik)说,由于对他以前呼吁朝鲜暂时停止活动、开启对话的说法置之不理,朝鲜已让文在寅失去了主动性。

“There is little the Moon government can do for now,” Mr. Bong said.

“文在寅政府现在能做的非常有限,”奉英植说。

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