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假如你是金正恩......

更新时间:2017-9-11 11:53:00 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Kim Jong-un and the Art of Tyranny
假如你是金正恩......

Imagine yourself as Kim Jong-un, North Korean despot.

假设你是朝鲜独裁者金正恩(Kim Jong-un)。

Unlike your father Kim Jong-il, who took the throne in late middle age and died 17 years later, you came to it before your 30th birthday. Yours is the longer, harder road, albeit with the same constant aim: to rule for life and die comfortably in your bed.

和你的父亲金正日(Kim Jong-il)不同——他在中年后期即位,17年后去世——而你在30岁之前就已掌权。你的道路更漫长、更艰难,尽管你们有着相同的长期目标:统治一生,舒服地死在自己的床上。

Everything else — the purges, the killing of the young American, the missile shots and nuclear tests, the brinkmanship with the Trump administration — serves that ambition. It ought to make you a pragmatist at heart.

其他的一切都是为了这个野心:大清洗、杀死那名美国年轻人、导弹发射和核试验、对特朗普政府的冒险政策。它必须把你从本质上变成一个实用主义者。

For nearly six years you have cultivated a reputation for capricious brutality. They say you fed your uncle to dogs after you had him arrested in full public view. They say you had your armed forces minister dispatched with an antiaircraft gun, to obliterate every trace of him from the face of the earth. They say you executed your deputy premier for education for slouching.

你用近六年的时间树立了反复无常、残酷无情的名声。他们说你在众目睽睽之下逮捕了你姑父,而后将他喂狗。他们说你用高射炮处决了武装力量部部长,清除他在地球上的任何痕迹。他们说你处决了开会时打瞌睡的主管教育的副总理。

Nothing strange in this. Tyranny is an art, the foremost requirement of which is to instill the appropriate sense of dread and awe. You — the fat kid with the boarding-school education and the basketball mania — had no chance of living without immediately demonstrating a relish for killing. Political murder in regimes like yours is always performance art.

这没什么好奇怪的。独裁是一门艺术,最重要的是灌输适当的恐惧感和敬畏感。你这个在寄宿学校接受教育、喜欢打篮球的胖小子,必须立刻展示自己对杀戮的享受才能活下去。在你这样的政权里,政治杀戮永远是行为艺术。

And so you did it, even as you eased economic controls and allowed private markets to flourish. You would not put North Koreans through another Arduous March, as your father had in the 1990s, allowing more than a million to starve so that Pyongyang’s elite could stay fed.

所以你那样做了,尽管你放松了对经济的控制,允许私人市场发展。你不会再让朝鲜人民经历一次“苦难的行军”(对“饥荒”的婉称——译注),像你父亲在20世纪90年代那样,导致一百多万人饿死,以保证平壤的精英们能填饱肚子。

Another lesson for tyrants: You do not subjugate a people by taking everything from them. You subjugate them by giving them something they know you can take away. Desperate people aren’t always obedient. Dependent people usually are.

独裁者的另一个教训是:你不可能征服被你剥夺了一切的人民。你通过给予一些他们知道你可以夺走的东西来征服他们。绝望的人不会永远顺从。而依赖你的人通常会。

Similar logic applies to your foreign policy. The Americans hoped you would be one of two things when you came to power: the modernizer who had seen enough of the world to know how backward your own corner of it is; or the boy king whose incompetence would spell his own — and hopefully the regime’s — demise.

类似的逻辑适用于你的外交政策。你即位时,美国人希望你变成以下两者之一:一个现代化主义者,见过很多世面,知道自己的那个角落多么落后;或者一个少年国王,他的无能会导致他自己甚至整个政权的灭亡。

You’ve proved them wrong on the first count. As for the second, it depends on how well you play your nuclear card. Your dad used a cycle of crisis and negotiation, cheat-and-repeat, to wheedle economic and diplomatic concessions and play for time — time that, in his case, was in short supply.

你已经向他们证明你不是前者。至于后者,它取决于你能否打好核武器牌。你的父亲通过危机和谈判的循环,一次次地骗取经济和外交上的妥协,为自己争取时间——他很缺时间。

But that’s not an option for you. You need a 50-year solution to your strategic dilemmas, not just another set of piecemeal concessions from Seoul or Washington. That requires changing the game in East Asia by nudging America out. Whoever is helping you make such astonishing progress in your missile and nuclear programs clearly wants to use you to change the game, too.

但是对你来说,那不是一个选择。你需要的是一个能解决你所处的战略困境的50年方案,而不只是首尔或华盛顿的又一轮一点点的妥协。这要求把美国挤出东亚,改变这里的游戏。帮你在导弹和核计划上取得惊人进步的不管是什么人,都是在想利用你来改变这场游戏。

The tactics are straightforward. Persuade Americans you’re capable of anything. Field missiles and warheads that can hold American cities at risk. Foment a sense of nonstop, apocalyptic, unsolvable crisis that, in time, exhausts American endurance and leverages isolationist instincts in the Trump administration. Drive every wedge you can between Washington and Seoul. Some you get for free: Who else but Donald Trump would think to start a trade war with Seoul in the midst of a nuclear crisis with Pyongyang?

战术很直接。让美国人相信你什么都干得出来。制造能够威胁美国城市的导弹和弹头。挑起一场让人感觉不会停止的、灾难性的、无法解决的危机,它迟早会耗尽美国人的忍耐力,触动特朗普政府中的孤立主义直觉。尽可能地离间华盛顿和首尔。你还免费获得了另一样东西:除了唐纳德·特朗普,还会有谁在平壤核危机之际想与韩国开始贸易战?

The man’s a gift.

这个男人简直是大礼。

Can it work? The Americans are pushing for more sanctions at the United Nations, but the Russians and Chinese seem to want to have none of it. An American retreat from Northeast Asia might eventually induce South Korea and Japan to acquire nuclear arsenals, but even then both countries would be likelier to mollify you with bribes than risk war over this or that crisis. Washington could try to impose stiff sanctions on Beijing for providing you with oil, but there’s a limit to how effective sanctions can be against an economy the size of China’s.

它能凑效吗?美国在联合国积极推动实施更多制裁,但俄罗斯和中国似乎不想进行任何制裁。美国退出东北亚可能最终导致韩国和日本拥有核武器,但即使到那时,这两个国家也更可能在出现各种危机时用贿赂来抚慰你,而非冒险开战。华盛顿可能会因为北京向你提供石油,尝试严厉制裁惩罚它,但对中国这样的经济体量来说,制裁的效果很有限。

Besides, you have ears. Behind Trump’s “fire and fury” bluster you hear his secretary of defense underscore the perils of war, and his secretary of state disavow any interest in regime change for the North. Even in this administration, nobody knows how to do “crazy” the way you do. They sound desperate for a deal.

此外,你也能听到消息。在特朗普“炮火和怒火”的咆哮背后,你听说他的国防部长强调战争的危害,他的国务卿否认对更换朝鲜政权有任何兴趣。即使在他的政府里,也没人知道如何像你那样“疯狂”。他们似乎很想达成交易。

A troubling thought for you: What if the Americans really did succeed in pressuring the Chinese to cut you off? Or what if somebody found a Stuxnet-type solution to cripple your only operational refinery or blow up the pipeline through which you import crude from China?

令你不安的一个想法是:要是美国真的说服中国切断对你的石油供应,那你怎么办?或者要是某个人找到了一个“震网”(Stuxnet)式的解决方案,导致你唯一运行的炼油厂无法开工,或者炸毁你从中国进口原油用的管道,那你怎么办?

Your retaliatory options are few. You can’t simply level Seoul with artillery: that would mean full-scale war and your prompt destruction. When you get down to it, you’re making up in gumption what you lack in nearly every other resource.

你的报复手段很少。你不可能真的用大炮夷平首尔:那将意味着全面战争和你的快速灭亡。归根到底,你是在用胆力弥补你其他资源的不足。

Banish your fears. Washington wouldn’t dare. You’re too useful to Beijing. The whip hand in this crisis is yours. Not bad for a tyrant apprentice coming fully into his own.

放下你的恐惧吧。华盛顿不敢。你对北京太有用了。在这场危机中,占据有利地位的是你。一个茁壮成长的独裁学徒,好样的。

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