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更新时间:2017-9-6 11:42:33 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Phone Buddy in North Korea Crisis: Shinzo Abe

TOKYO — President Trump has made some rocky telephone calls to other heads of state in his seven and a half months in office. But he can always count on one world leader for a good chat: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan.


Ever since the pair met in November at Trump Tower in New York just days after the presidential election, they have had a warm relationship that goes well beyond the typical partnership between two longstanding allies.


“It is very unusual,” said Mitoji Yabunaka, a longtime diplomat and former vice minister at Japan’s Foreign Ministry. “It did not happen that way in the past.”

“这非常不同寻常,”曾担任日本副外相的老牌外交官薮中三十二(Mitoji Yabunaka)说。“过去从未有过这种事情。”

Since Mr. Trump was inaugurated in January, he and Mr. Abe have met in person three times, golfed together once and talked by telephone 13 times, more than Mr. Abe spoke to President Barack Obama in his last four years in office. Over the past week alone, Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump have spoken by telephone four times.


“The president responds to Abe as a buddy and a friend,” said Sheila A. Smith, a Japan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “And Abe has worked hard to cultivate that kind of relationship with him.”

“总统对安倍晋三的反应是把他当成哥儿们和朋友,”华盛顿的美国外交关系委员会的日本问题专家希拉·A·史密斯(Sheila A. Smith)说。“而安倍晋三也在与特朗普搞好关系上作出了不懈努力。”

To be sure, with the North Korean nuclear crisis escalating and a missile flying directly over Japan last week, they have ample reason to chat.


But that same logic applies to South Korea, and relations between Mr. Trump and his counterpart there, President Moon Jae-in, are decidedly chillier. Mr. Trump waited until the day after Sunday’s nuclear test in North Korea to call Mr. Moon, while he talked to Mr. Abe twice the day it happened, once before and once after the test.


Analysts sift through the terse accounts that both the White House and Mr. Abe’s office release describing their conversations. The word “ironclad” appears frequently to characterize the alliance between the two nations. As North Korea has come to dominate the conversation, the reports inevitably include censure of the North’s actions, with Mr. Trump recently saying that the United States was prepared to defend America’s allies “using the full range of diplomatic, conventional and nuclear capabilities at our disposal.”


In talking to Mr. Trump frequently, Mr. Abe is partly ensuring that those guarantees remain in place, advisers say, given how erratic Mr. Trump can be, sometimes appearing to change policy direction between tweets. The worry is that the promises of yesterday might not hold today.


A person familiar with the thinking of Mr. Abe and his cabinet who is not authorized to speak publicly said that given the unpredictable pronouncements from the Trump administration, Mr. Abe wants to keep in close contact to ensure there are no misunderstandings.


The Japanese news media have seized on that unpredictability.


In a morning news show on Asahi Television the day after the North’s sixth nuclear test, commentators wondered how to reconcile Mr. Trump’s “Talking is not the answer!” tweet from a few days earlier with comments from Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis suggesting diplomacy is still an option. “National policy is not clear,” read a graphic on the screen.

朝鲜进行第六次核试验的第二天,朝日电视台晨间新闻节目的评论员们想搞明白,如何协调两种截然不同的说法:特朗普几天前曾发推文称“谈判不是解决问题的办法!”,而美国国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂尔森(Rex W. Tillerson)和国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)的言论都暗示外交手段仍是一种选择。当时,电视屏幕上出现了“国家方针不明确”的字样。

“It is still valuable to reconfirm that they have common goals and a common set of strategies or tactics,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat now teaching at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto. “Once is not enough. Reconfirmation should be continual and frequent. All the options are on the table. If the options are limited, you don’t have to” keep talking.

“重新确定他们有共同目标和一套共同的战略或战术,仍是有价值的,”现在京都立命馆大学教书的日本前外交官宮家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)说。“只确认一次是不够地。应该接连不断地、频繁地重新进行确认。所有的选择都摆在桌面上。如果选择有限,就没必要”继续谈下去。

Aside from the search for clarity, the telephone calls — which often coincide with calls between Japan’s defense or foreign ministers and their American counterparts — reflect the alignment of two conservative and nationalistic administrations.


Although Mr. Abe had expected Hillary Clinton to win the presidential election, his cabinet has found a more simpatico national security leadership in Mr. Trump’s circle. Mr. Abe, himself a hard-liner who has called for increasing Japan’s military power, also appreciates the tough talk against North Korea, say analysts.

虽然安倍晋三曾希望希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)能在总统大选中获胜,但日本内阁已在特朗普的圈子里找到了一个更志趣相投的国家安全领导班子。分析人士说,安倍晋三本人属于强硬派,一直在呼吁加强日本的军事力量,所以他赞赏对朝鲜的强硬言辞。

“I think the Japanese government wants to see some demonstration of American resolve,” said Michael J. Green, a former Asia adviser to President George W. Bush who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“我认为,日本政府想看到美国决心的更多表露,”前总统乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)的亚洲事务顾问迈克尔·J·格林(Michael J. Green)说,格林目前在华盛顿战略与国际研究中心工作。

“And saber rattling does not alarm the Japanese government as much as it does the South Korean government,” which has called for more diplomatic and economic engagement with North Korea.


There are some risks for Mr. Abe, as the Japanese public is understandably squeamish about the prospect of a nuclear war on their doorstep given the country’s own history with it.


But the frequency of the phone calls between Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump also simply demonstrates the personal chemistry between the two men.


Mr. Abe was the first world leader to visit Mr. Trump after he won the election, and they spent hours playing golf at Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., in February. During that visit, they bonded over the North Korean challenge when the North test-fired a ballistic missile while the leaders were having dinner.


While other world leaders have criticized Mr. Trump for his decision to withdraw from the Paris accord on climate change and for his comments about white supremacist protests in Charlottesville, Va., Mr. Abe can be a safe harbor.


“Mr. Abe provides him with a world leader who reaffirms Trump’s own leadership and says, ‘O.K., I am looking to you, I am depending on you, you’re the guy and I’m going to stand with you wherever you go,’” said Daniel C. Sneider, a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University. “And I think Trump needs that.”

“安倍晋三为他提供了一个肯定特朗普本人领导能力的世界领袖,安倍晋三说,‘行,我指望你,我依靠你,你是我的朋友,你走到哪里我都站在你一边,’”斯坦福大学东亚研究所讲师丹尼尔·C·施奈德(Daniel C. Sneider)说。“我认为特朗普需要这个。”

By contrast, President Barack Obama did not feel the need to talk to Mr. Abe as frequently, said an American diplomat in Japan who served during the Obama presidency and was not authorized to speak publicly.


From Mr. Abe’s perspective, the frequent calls also demonstrate strength to North Korea, as well as China, which Mr. Trump has repeatedly called on to solve the North Korean crisis.


The calls between the two leaders “primarily send a message to North Korea,” said Hajime Izumi, a professor of international relations and Korean politics at Tokyo International University. But he said Mr. Abe also “wants China to sweat more.”

两国领导人之间的通话“主要是向朝鲜传递信息”,东京国际大学国际关系和朝鲜问题教授伊豆见元(Izumi Hajime)说。但他说,安倍晋三也“想让中国更紧张”。

Mr. Abe stands out among world leaders for staving off censure from a president who during the campaign criticized Japanese trade barriers and suggested Japan pay a greater share of the cost of United States military support.


“Abe is one of the few Asian leaders who has been able to pretty deftly navigate the unpredictability and eccentricities of Trump to his substantial advantage,” said Evan S. Medeiros, who served as senior director on Asia in the National Security Council during the Obama administration.

“安倍晋三巧妙地对付了特朗普的不可预测性和古怪行为,来为自己营造巨大的优势,他是为数不多的能够这样做的亚洲领导人之一,”曾担任奥巴马国家安全委员会亚洲事务高级主管的埃文·S·梅代罗斯(Evan S. Medeiros)说。

Some critics accuse Mr. Abe of being too sycophantic in pursuit of a bromance with Mr. Trump.


But analysts say there is little to be gained by disagreeing with the president.


“It may be that President Trump is profoundly unpopular around the world,” said Mr. Green. “But if you are the prime minister of Japan and you have the opportunity to shape this almost unshapeable president, it’s in your national interest to do that.”


One way the relationship could cool is if Mr. Abe finds himself in conflict with other leaders he is courting. On Thursday, he will meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in Vladivostok, a leader whom Mr. Abe has pursued assiduously.

让他两人关系冷却的一种方法是,安倍晋三发现这么做与自己想讨好的其他领导人之间存在冲突。周四,安倍晋三将与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)在符拉迪沃斯托克会晤,安倍晋三一直在努力向普京示好。

Russia is likely to want to mediate the North Korean crisis and may diverge from the American approach.


“Putin is going to push him to do what they want to do,” Mr. Sneider said. “And we don’t know if that conflicts with what Trump wants to do.”