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朝鲜最新导弹试验展示现实实力

更新时间:2017-8-30 18:43:15 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

As North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan, Analysts See Gains
朝鲜最新导弹试验展示现实实力

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has authorized more than 80 missile tests since taking power almost six years ago. But all of those missiles landed in nearby waters because they were of limited range or fired at a sharp angle, high into space, so they would splash down without going too far.

韩国首尔——自从近六年前上台以来,朝鲜领导人金正恩已经批准了80多次导弹试验。但这些导弹全都坠入了附近水域,因为射程有限,或是发射角度偏高,导弹飞入高空,在水平距离上飞不了多远便溅落了。

On Tuesday, the North abandoned that restraint, lobbing an intermediate-range ballistic missile at a normal angle and sending it over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, into a spot in the Western Pacific almost 1,700 miles away. In doing so, Mr. Kim may have been trying to show that he can hit a faraway target, for the first time doing a more realistic test of the type of missile he had threatened to use to strike near the American territory of Guam.

但周二,朝鲜不再克制,以正常角度发射了一枚中程弹道导弹。导弹飞越日本北海道上空,坠入近1700英里(约合2740公里)外的西太平洋。金正恩这么做可能是想表明,他能够击中遥远的目标。这是金正恩首次对他威胁要用来袭击较近的美国领土关岛的那种导弹,进行更为现实的试验。

“By lobbing a missile over Japan, North Korea is showing that it was not an empty threat when it said it would launch missiles toward Guam,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University near Seoul.

“通过发射一枚飞越日本上空的导弹,朝鲜是在表明当它说会朝关岛发射导弹时,不是虚张声势的威胁,”坐落在首尔附近的韩国航空大学(Korea Aerospace University)的导弹专家张永谨(Chang Young-keun,音)说。

If that is the natural next stage of the North’s missile development program, the world may see more such tests. Because of North Korea’s location — squeezed between China and South Korea, with Japan to the east and southeast and Russia to the northeast — there is essentially no way that the North can test missiles on such trajectories without flying over another nation.

如果这是朝鲜导弹发展计划自然推进的下一个阶段,这种试验可能会变得更多。因为地理位置——夹在中国和韩国之间,东边和东南边是日本,东北边是俄罗斯——的原因,朝鲜按照这种轨迹试射导弹时,基本上无法做到让导弹不飞经他国上空。

“If the previous launchings were for testing technologies, this one was a realistic demonstration of an intermediate-range ballistic missile capability,” Mr. Chang said. “In this test, the North’s missile actually flew at a realistic angle and trajectory.”

“如果之前的发射是为了试验技术,这一次则是实打实地展示了中程弹道导弹的实力,”张永谨说。“在这次试验中,朝鲜导弹飞行的角度和轨迹都很现实。”

President Trump said in a statement Tuesday that North Korea had “signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior.”

特朗普总统周二在一份声明中说,朝鲜“表明了对邻国、对联合国所有成员和对国际行为可接受的最低标准的不屑”。

He added, “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table.”

他接着说,“威胁和破坏稳定的行为只会使朝鲜政权在该地区和全球所有国家中遭到进一步孤立。所有选择都在台面上了。”

At the United Nations, members of the Security Council met in an emergency session late Tuesday afternoon to discuss the next steps. The meeting was held in private, and the American ambassador, Nikki R. Haley, said nothing to reporters as she entered. Earlier in the day, however, Ms. Haley said: “No country should have missiles flying over them, like those 130 million people in Japan. It’s unacceptable.”

在联合国,安理会成员国周二傍晚召开紧急会议,商讨接下来的举措。会议是秘密举行的,美国驻联合国大使尼基·R·黑利(Nikki R. Haley)进入会场时对记者一言未发。但当天早些时候,她表示:“任何国家的民众都不应经历导弹从头顶飞过,比如日本的1.3亿人。这是无法容忍的。”

The North Korean missile was widely believed to be a Hwasong-12, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that the North says is designed to carry a large nuclear warhead. After North Korea launched it without warning, the Japanese government sent a text alert to its people, advising them to take protective cover in case the test went wrong.

朝鲜这枚导弹被普遍认为是一枚火星-12(Hwasong-12)。这是一种中程弹道导弹,朝鲜称其设计目的就是为了搭载大型核弹头。在朝鲜毫无征兆地发射导弹后,日本政府向民众发出预警短信,建议他们寻找掩体保护自己,以防试验出问题。

North Korea rattled the Trump administration last month by launching two intercontinental ballistic missiles, the second of which demonstrated the potential to reach the contiguous United States. But officials and analysts doubted that the country had mastered the technology needed to protect a nuclear warhead from intense heat and friction as it re-entered the atmosphere from space.

上月,朝鲜发射两枚洲际弹道导弹,第二枚显示出了抵达美国本土的潜力。对此,特朗普政府感到担忧。但官员和分析人士怀疑,朝鲜还没有掌握在核弹头从太空重返大气层时,保护核弹头不受高温和剧烈摩擦的影响所需的技术。

Tuesday’s test might have been most important for the development of more dependable intermediate-range missiles. But experts say it could also provide information for the crucial re-entry technology needed for a warhead on an intermediate-range missile to survive the fiery plunge back into the earth’s atmosphere.

周二的试验可能对更可靠的中程导弹的发展极其重要。但专家表示,试验可能还会为中程导弹上的核弹头在重返地球大气层的过程中不受高温影响所需的、至关重要的再入技术提供信息。

It is less clear if that information could help the North pursue the especially difficult goal of developing the re-entry technology needed to build a nuclear-tipped longer-range missile that could hit the mainland United States. Those warheads would re-enter more quickly, producing much higher heats.

相关信息是否能够帮助朝鲜追求十分艰难的目标,即发展制造一枚携有核弹头、可抵达美国本土、射程更长的导弹所需的再入技术,还不甚明朗。这些弹头重返大气层的速度会更快,产生的温度更高。

Japan said it did not try to shoot the missile down because it did not detect a threat to its territory. But analysts said the test nevertheless underscored some uncomfortable questions about the possibility of defending against such missiles.

日本自称没有试图击落导弹,因为没有发现自己的领土受到了威胁。但分析人士称,此次试验突显了一些令人不安的问题,它们事关防御这类导弹的可能性。

The allies could do little more than track the missile Tuesday as it arched over Hokkaido and splashed into the northern Pacific. Analysts said Japan could have tried to shoot it down if its Aegis destroyers, which are armed with SM3 Block I interceptor missiles, happened to be in waters between North Korea and Japan. But because the SM3 is slower than the Hwasong-12, they would have had to make the attempt before the missile passed over the ships.

周二当天,在导弹呈弓形飞越北海道上空并坠入北太平洋时,日本的盟友几乎只能追踪导弹。分析人士称,如果日本配备了SM3 Block 1拦截导弹的“宙斯盾”(Aegis)驱逐舰恰好在朝鲜和日本之间的水域,日本可能会尝试击落导弹。但因为SM3的速度比火星-12慢,他们可能必须在导弹到达驱逐舰头顶之前进行尝试。

And one analyst noted that Japan could have been caught off guard entirely had the destroyers been elsewhere — for example, if Japan had ordered them south in response to North Korea’s threat to fire missiles into the waters around Guam.

一名分析人士指出,如果那些驱逐舰在其他地方——比如针对朝鲜威胁要向关岛附近水域发射导弹,日本下令它们南下——日本可能完全猝不及防。

“After distracting attention toward Guam, North Korea fired the missile over Japan,” said Shin Jong-woo, a defense analyst at Korea Defense Forum, a Seoul-based network of military experts. “By doing so, it reduced the chance of its missile being shot down, and at the same time demonstrated its ability to hit a target as far away as Guam without actually launching the missile in its direction.”

“把外界的注意力转向关岛后,朝鲜发射了飞越日本上空的导弹,”设在首尔的军事专家组织韩国防务论坛(Korea Defense Forum)的分析人士申中禹(Shin Jong-woo,音)说。“朝鲜这么做降低了导弹被击落的可能性,同时又在不是真的朝那个方向发射导弹的情况下,证明它有能力击中像关岛那么遥远的目标。”

The missile launch came as the United States and Japan were wrapping up a two-week joint military exercise around Hokkaido, which culminated in the demonstration of the PAC-3 missile-defense system on Tuesday. Kim Dong-yub, a defense analyst at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, noted that the missile flew too high for the PAC-3 to reach.

朝鲜发射导弹时,美国和日本在北海道附近为期两周的联合军事演习即将结束。周二,PAC-3导弹防御系统上场,演习达到高潮。首尔庆南大学(Kyungnam University)远东研究所(Institute for Far Eastern Studies)的防务分析师金东烨(Kim Dong-yub,音)指出,这枚导弹飞得太高,超出了PAC-3的射程。

“I don’t think it was an empty threat when North Korea warned it would fire the Hwasong-12 around Guam,” said Mr. Kim. “The test today was the North Korean way of saying that it would go ahead with it and would be able to do it if the United States kept dragging its feet in coming to the negotiating table under the North Korean terms.”

“我认为朝鲜警告说要向关岛附近发射水星-12时,不是虚张声势的威胁,”金说。“通过今天的试验,朝鲜是在说,如果美国拖着不按照朝鲜的条件坐到谈判桌前,它会继续这么做,并且有这个能力。”

Paul Burton, a Singapore-based director for Jane’s by IHS Markit, a defense analysis firm, noted that the North launched its missile Tuesday as the Trump administration was dealing with a calamitous storm in Houston. “The timing of the test shows that the North Korean regime has an acute sense of how to cause maximum impact with its accelerated missile testing program,” Mr. Burton said.

防务分析公司Jane’s by IHS Markit驻新加坡的负责人保罗·伯顿(Paul Burton)指出,朝鲜周二发射导弹时,特朗普政府正在处理休斯顿的灾难性暴风雨。“此次试验的时机表明,朝鲜政权对如何用加速的导弹发射计划制造最大影响有敏锐的认识,”伯顿说。

South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, responded to the launch by ordering his military to “demonstrate a strong retaliatory capability against North Korea.” Four F-15K fighter jets soon dropped two bombs each at a domestic bombing range. The country’s air force called it a rehearsal of its capacity to “destroy the enemy leadership” in the event of war.

作为回应,韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)下令军队“展现报复朝鲜的强大实力”。很快,四架F-15K战斗机便在韩国国内的一处轰炸训练场各投掷了两枚炸弹。韩国空军称其是对爆发战争时“摧毁敌方领导层”能力的演习。

South Korea also released video footage showing test launches of its two newest ballistic missiles, components of its so-called “Kill Chain” program designed to destroy key North Korean targets. The tests were conducted on Thursday, but the military had not previously confirmed that they took place.

韩国还公布了一段视频,上面是其试射两枚最新型弹道导弹的场景。这些导弹是韩国“杀伤链”(Kill Chain)计划的组成部分,后者的设计目的是摧毁朝鲜关键目标。试验是周四进行的,但军方之前未予以证实。

Even as North Korea continues to test missiles, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers in Seoul this week that the North was technically prepared to conduct its sixth underground nuclear test. Officials have speculated that the North might do so on Sept. 9, a North Korean holiday called the Day of the Foundation of the Republic, or that it might launch another missile on that date. The North conducted its last nuclear test on Sept. 9.

就在朝鲜继续试验导弹时,韩国情报官员本周在首尔对立法者表示,朝鲜严格来说是在为第六次地下核实验做准备。官方猜测,朝鲜可能会在9月9日这一天进行地下核试验,或是再发射一枚导弹。这一天是朝鲜的国庆节。朝鲜上一次核试验就是在这一天进行的。

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