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特朗普全力推动核重建,引发军备竞赛担忧

更新时间:2017-8-28 18:29:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump Forges Ahead on Costly Nuclear Overhaul, Sweeping Aside Doubts
特朗普全力推动核重建,引发军备竞赛担忧

During his speech last week about Afghanistan, President Donald Trump slipped in a line that had little to do with fighting the Taliban: “Vast amounts” are being spent on “our nuclear arsenal and missile defense,” he said, as the administration builds up the military.

特朗普总统上周就阿富汗问题发表讲话时,顺口说了一句和打击塔利班无关的话,他说,政府在军事建设上,把“大量资金”投入到了“核武库和导弹防御系统”上。

The president is doing exactly that. Last week, the Air Force announced major new contracts for an overhaul of the U.S. nuclear force: $1.8 billion for initial development of a highly stealthy nuclear cruise missile, and nearly $700 million to begin replacing the 40-year-old Minuteman missiles in silos across the United States.

美国确实正在这样做。上周,空军宣布了几个新的重大合同,用来重整美国核力量:18亿美元用于初步研发隐身性能极佳的核巡航导弹,近7亿美元用来更换美国各地发射井里40多年前的“民兵”(Minuteman)导弹。

While both programs were developed during the Obama years, the Trump administration has seized on them, with only passing nods to the debate about whether either is necessary or wise. They are the first steps in a broader remaking of the nuclear arsenal — and the bombers, submarines and missiles that deliver the weapons — that the government estimated during President Barack Obama’s tenure would ultimately cost $1 trillion or more.

虽然这两个计划是奥巴马总统任职期间制订的,但特朗普政府将它们抓在手里,对于这么做是否必要以及明智的辩论采取敷衍态度。这是更广泛地重建核武库——以及用来发射这种武器的轰炸机、潜艇和导弹的第一步——奥巴马政府期间,政府估计这笔费用将高达1万亿美元或更多。

Even as his administration nurtured the programs, Obama argued that by making nuclear weapons safer and more reliable, their numbers could be reduced, setting the world on a path to one day eliminating them. Some of Obama’s national security aides, believing that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election, expected deep cutbacks in the $1 trillion plan.

就在奥巴马行政部门考虑这些计划的时候,奥巴马还表示,通过使核武器变得更安全、更可靠,它们在数量上可以减少,令世界走上有朝一日销毁核武的道路。奥巴马的一些国家安全助理以为希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)会赢得总统大选,因此估计这1万亿美元的计划将会遭到大幅削减。

Trump has not spoken of any such reduction, in the number of weapons or the scope of the overhaul, and his warning to North Korea a few weeks ago that he would meet any challenge with “fire and fury” suggested that he may not subscribe to the view of most past presidents that the United States would never use such weapons in a first strike.

特朗普从未提到过这样的削减,不管是从武器数量还是重建范围来说,几周前他还警告朝鲜,美国会对任何挑战回以“炮火和怒火”,暗示他可能不赞同其多数前任的意见,即美国永远不会在先发制人的打击中使用这种武器。

“We’re at a dead end for arms control,” said Gary Samore, who was a top nuclear adviser to Obama.

“我们走到了军备控制的死胡同里。”奥巴马的顶级核顾问加里·萨莫雷(Gary Samore)说。

While Trump is moving full speed ahead on the nuclear overhaul — even before a review of U.S. nuclear strategy, due at the end of the year, is completed — critics are warning of the risk of a new arms race and billions of dollars squandered.

就在特朗普在全力推动核重建之际——即使对美国核战略的评估要到年底才完成——批评人士警告说,这可能会引发新的军备竞赛和数以十亿美元计的浪费。

The critics of the cruise missile, led by a former defense secretary, William J. Perry, have argued that the new weapon will be so accurate and so stealthy that it will be destabilizing, forcing the Russians and the Chinese to accelerate their own programs. And the rebuilding of the ground-based missile fleet essentially commits the United States to keeping the most vulnerable leg of its “nuclear triad” — a mix of submarine-launched, bomber-launched and ground-launched weapons. Some arms control experts have argued that the ground force should be eliminated.

前国防部长威廉·佩里(William J. Perry)牵头的一些人对巡航导弹计划提出了批评,认为这种新武器准确度将极高,隐形性能将极佳,这可能会破坏平衡局面,迫使俄罗斯和中国人加快自己的研发计划。而重建地面导弹系统,实际上是在保持美国“三合一战略核力量”——可以用潜水艇、轰炸机、地面发射核武器的体系——中最脆弱的一环。一些军备控制专家认为,应该直接取消地面发射系统。

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told Congress in June that he was open to reconsidering the need for both systems. But in remarks to sailors in Washington state almost three weeks ago, he hinted at where a nuclear review was going to come out.

国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)6月告诉国会,他愿意重新考虑这两个系统是否必要。但是,大约在三周前,在华盛顿州面向水兵发表讲话时,他暗示了核评估可能会是何种结果。

“I think we’re going to keep all three legs of the deterrent,” he told the sailors.

“我想,我们要保持这三条腿全部的威慑,”他告诉水兵。

The contracts, and Mattis’ hints about the ultimate nuclear strategy, suggest that Obama’s agreement in 2010 to spend $80 billion to “modernize” the nuclear arsenal — the price he paid for getting the Senate to ratify the New Start arms control agreement with Russia — will have paved the way for expansions of the nuclear arsenal under Trump.

这些合同,以及马蒂斯关于终极核战略的暗示,表明奥巴马在2010年时同意花800亿美元来实现核武库的“现代化”——他为参议院批准与俄罗斯签署新一轮军备控制协议所付出的代价——将为特朗普扩建核武库铺平道路。

“It’s been clear for years now that the Russians are only willing to reduce numbers if we put limits on missile defense, and with the North Korean threat, we can’t do that,” said Samore, who is now at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. “I think we are pretty much doomed to modernize the triad.”

“这几年来,情况已经很清楚,只有我们限制导弹防御系统,俄罗斯人才愿意减少核弹数量,而面对朝鲜的威胁,我们不能这么做。”目前在哈佛大学贝尔弗科学与国际事务中心(Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs)任职的萨莫雷说。“我认为对这个三合一战略核力量进行现代化几乎是肯定的事了。”

At issue in the debate over the cruise missile and the rebuilding of the land-based fleet is an argument over nuclear deterrence — the kind of debate that gripped U.S. national security experts in the 1950s and ‘60s, and again during the Reagan era.

在关于巡航导弹以及重建陆基系统的辩论中,一个主题涉及核威慑力——这和美国国家安全专家在1950以及1960年代,以及里根时代进行的那种辩论属于一个类型。

Cruise missiles are low-flying weapons with stubby wings. Dropped from a bomber, they hug the ground to avoid enemy radars and air defenses. Their computerized brains compare internal maps of the terrain with what their sensors report.

巡航导弹是一种低空飞行的武器,双翼短粗。它们从轰炸机上投放下来之后,可以贴近地面飞行,以避开敌人的雷达和防御系统。它们的计算机大脑可以将内部存储的地形图与传感器获得的数据进行比较。

The Air Force’s issuing last week of the contract for the advanced nuclear-tipped missile — to Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Missile Systems — starts a 12-year effort to replace an older model. The updated weapon is to eventually fly on a yet-undeveloped new nuclear bomber.

空军上周宣布和洛克希德·马丁(Lockheed Martin)以及雷神(Raytheon)公司签订合同,要研制可携带核弹头的导弹——这开启了一个为期12年的更新换代过程。这种新的导弹可以搭载在尚未研制出的新型核轰炸机上。

The plan is to produce 1,000 of the new missiles, which are stealthier and more precise than the ones they will replace, and to place revitalized nuclear warheads on half of them. The other half would be kept for flight tests and for spares. The total cost of the program is estimated to be $25 billion.

他们的计划是生产1000枚这种新型导弹,它比现有导弹精确度更高、隐形性能更好。其中一半的新导弹用来搭载重振威力的核弹头,另一半将用于飞行测试和当备件用。整个计划的总成本估计为250亿美元。

The most vivid argument in favor of the new weapon came in testimony to the Senate from Franklin C. Miller, a longtime Pentagon official who helped design President George W. Bush’s nuclear strategy and is a consultant at the Pentagon under Mattis. The new weapon, he said last summer, would extend the life of the United States’ aging fleet of B-52 and B-2 bombers, as Russian and Chinese “air defenses evolve to a point where” the planes are “are unable to penetrate to their targets.”

最生动的支持新武器的理由,出现在长期任职于五角大楼的富兰克林·C·米勒(Franklin C. Miller)在参议院的证词中。他曾参与设计乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)的核战略,现在是马蒂斯执掌的五角大楼的顾问。他在去年夏天说,随着俄罗斯和中国的“空防发展到”美军飞机“无法穿透并击中目标的程度”,这款新武器会延长美国日渐老化的B-52和B-2轰炸机机队的寿命。

Critics argue that the cruise missile’s high precision and reduced impact on nearby civilians could tempt a future president to contemplate “limited nuclear war.” Worse, they say, is that adversaries might overreact to the launching of the cruise missiles because they come in nuclear as well as non-nuclear varieties.

批评人士称,巡航导弹的高精度和对附近平民影响的减小,可能会吸引将来的总统考虑“有限核战争”。他们说,更糟糕的是,对手可能会对该巡航导弹的发射做出过激反应,因为它们有的是核弹,有的是非核弹。

Miller dismisses that fear, saying the new weapon is no more destabilizing than the one it replaces.

米勒对这种担忧不以为意,称这款新武器对稳定的破坏不比被它取代的那一款大。

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