您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 观点 >> 正文

特朗普的阿富汗战略幻想

更新时间:2017-8-25 10:20:38 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Afghan Illusions
特朗普的阿富汗战略幻想

Here was Donald Trump tethered by his generals. The new-old Afghan war strategy set out by the president Monday night contained a Trump line or two — terrorists as “losers,” the nixing of “nation-building” — but was the work of the adults in the room. They forced the commander-in-chief to curtail his wilder instincts.

唐纳德·特朗普手下的将军们对他进行了约束。总统于周一发布换汤不换药的阿富汗战略计划,其中有几处措辞是特朗普自己的——称恐怖分子为“废物”,拒绝使用“国家建设”这个说法——但该策略出自屋子里的成年人之手。他们迫使这位三军统帅压抑了自己狂野的本能。

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser, both have bitter experience of Afghanistan. John Kelly, the chief of staff, lost his 29-year-old son, First Lt. Robert Kelly, there. They were not about to let Trump declare Afghanistan “a complete waste,” as he did in 2012, and walk away.

国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特中将(Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster)都有过关于阿富汗的苦涩经历。白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利(John Kelly)在那里失去了29岁的儿子罗伯特·凯利(Robert Kelly)中尉。他们可不想让特朗普宣布阿富汗那些事是“彻头彻尾的无用功”——2012年的时候他说过这话——然后转头走开。

In a sense this is reassuring. Trump is not home alone. He fires off, gets a lesson on the real world, bridles again, and is momentarily muted. Qatar, North Korea, Iran and Charlottesville: the pattern repeats itself. It’s ominous but it has not sent the world over a cliff, yet.

这在某种程度上令人感到安心。特朗普不是独自待在家中。他会猛然爆发,接着在现实世界受到教训,然后再度爆发,又暂时噤声。卡塔尔、朝鲜、伊朗、夏洛茨维尔:这种模式循环往复。它颇为不祥,但还没有把整个世界推到悬崖边缘,暂时还没有。

And now we have Afghanistan, the nearly 16-year-old war that just became Trump’s war, against the wishes of Steve Bannon, his ousted chief strategist.

现在,我们面临的问题是阿富汗。这场持续了近16年的战争刚刚变成了特朗普的战争,违背了被免职的首席战略顾问史蒂夫·班农(Steve Bannon)的愿望。

The decision not to leave was the right decision; and Trump was also right to note that telegraphing future pullout dates for American troops, as President Obama did, is military folly. Ashraf Ghani, the embattled Afghan president, needs United States help in holding the line against an invigorated Taliban. But what Trump announced did not amount to a strategy, let alone a new one. It amounted rather, in the tweeted words of Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University, to “a set of incoherent slogans.”

不撤军的决定是正确的。特朗普指出,暴露美军未来的撤离日期在军事上是不智之举,正如奥巴马总统做的那样——这个他也没说错。处境艰难的阿富汗总统阿什拉夫·加尼(Ashraf Ghani)需要美国帮他继续打击生机勃勃的塔利班。不过,特朗普的声明算不上战略,更算不上新战略。正如纽约大学(New York University)的阿富汗专家巴尼特·鲁宾(Barnett Rubin)在Twitter上说的,特朗普的声明只能算是“一套不连贯的口号”。

Trump talked plenty about “victory” but did not even attempt to define what would constitute it. That’s because there can be no military victory in Afghanistan. The best that can be hoped for is keeping the Taliban from power, and bolstering government forces to the point the Taliban can be persuaded to sue for peace. In other words, the end game can only be diplomatic.

特朗普多次提到“胜利”,但他甚至没有试图说明怎样算是胜利。那是因为在阿富汗,最终是无法出现一个军事胜利的。我们最多只能期望避免塔利班上台,支持政府军,直到让塔利班明白,只有提出和平诉求才行。换句话说,最终的结局只能通过外交达成。

Yet Trump has eviscerated the State Department. He has not named an ambassador to Afghanistan; he has eliminated the office of the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan; he has shown no inclination to engage allies or Afghanistan’s neighbors on ways to end the war.

但是,特朗普已经掏空了国务院。他没有任命阿富汗大使;他撤销了阿富汗和巴基斯坦特别代表办公室;他也没有表现出任何联合盟友或阿富汗邻国结束这场战争的意向。

While the president talked distantly of reaching “a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban,” his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, was explicit about supporting peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban “without preconditions”: the usual disconnect.

虽然总统曾模糊地提到达成“一项包括某些塔利班人员在内的政治和解”,但他的国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)明确表示支持阿富汗政府和塔利班之间“没有任何先决条件”的和平谈判——这种脱节很常见。

Iran could have been helpful; Trump has rebuffed it in his Saudi love trance. Russia could have been helpful; Trump is paralyzed by his Moscow secrets with respect to President Vladimir V. Putin. So Iran and Russia will do their worst in Afghanistan. As for China, another important regional player, it did not even get a mention.

伊朗本可能出手相助,但由于特朗普痴迷于沙特阿拉伯,所以拒绝了伊朗。俄罗斯本来也可能有所帮助,但特朗普与总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的秘密困扰着他。所以,伊朗和俄罗斯只会在阿富汗发挥最糟糕的作用。至于另一个重要的地区大国中国,甚至没被提及。

Trump invited India “to help us more with Afghanistan” — effectively holding a red rag to the Pakistani bull. The military in Pakistan will be enraged by the combination of Trump’s blunt (if justified) criticism and blandishments to India. This looks like sheer diplomatic stupidity. I wonder if the State Department, whose expertise has been flouted since January, even got to vet the speech.

特朗普曾请求印度“在阿富汗问题上更多地帮助我们”——这深深地激怒了巴基斯坦。特朗普那些直率的(也是合理的)批评和对印度的奉承将会激怒巴基斯坦军方。这看起来像是彻底的外交愚行。我很想知道,国务院是否审查过那个演讲。从今年1月起,国务院的专业性已经遭到藐视。

The Afghan war could have been ended a long time ago when people still remembered what it was about. But the United States diverted its forces and treasure to Iraq. Then Obama, in preparing to withdraw from Iraq, tried to compensate with a hapless “surge” in Afghanistan. This is a zigzagging chapter in American military history that soldiers are not about to resolve now. The mission became a mess; some 2,400 American troops have given their lives for a moving target. Trump’s words did nothing to redress this shame.

阿富汗战争本可能在很久以前人们依然记得它的目的的时候结束。但美国把兵力和资源转到了伊拉克。之后,奥巴马准备从伊拉克撤军时,试图用一场不幸的“增兵”行动对阿富汗进行弥补。这是美国军事史上曲折的一章,军人们对此是束手无策的。他们的使命变成一团糟,约2400名美国军人为一个活动的标靶付出了生命。特朗普的话对洗雪这个耻辱没有任何帮助。

“Trump put forward no coherent plan for finishing the war,” Vali Nasr, the dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told me. “He needs a serious diplomatic tack.”

“特朗普没有提出任何结束战争的清晰计划,”约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际问题研究学院(Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)的院长瓦利·纳斯尔(Vali Nasr)在接受采访时说。“他需要一个严肃的外交方针。”

The problem is Trump has no notion of diplomacy. He looked like an impersonator as he spoke, a man pretending to be something we know he’s not. A man of such evident moral shallowness, to whom personal sacrifice is a stranger, cannot speak of valor, bravery and heroism without becoming cringe-worthy.

问题是特朗普毫无外交观念。他讲话时像一个模仿秀演员,我们都知道他不是他扮演的那个人。一个明显道德感浅薄、毫无个人牺牲精神的人在谈论英勇、勇敢和英雄主义时肯定会让人觉得尴尬。

He spoke of “principled realism.” His presidency has been about unprincipled recklessness: allies shunned, dalliances with dictators, environmental sabotage. The man who earlier this month could not distinguish between neo-Nazi white supremacists with blood on their hands and leftist protesters calls for America’s soldiers to come home to a country that rejects bigotry and “has renewed the sacred bonds of love and loyalty.”

他提到“有原则的现实主义”。但他上任以来的行为全都是没有原则的冒进:推开盟国,接触独裁者,破坏环境。本月初,他还搞不清手上沾满鲜血的新纳粹白人至上主义者与的左翼抗议者的区别,他现在却呼吁美国士兵回到一个拒绝偏执的国家,“恢复爱和忠诚的神圣纽带”。

Really?

真的吗?

Shortly after Kelly, Trump’s chief of staff, lost his son in Afghanistan, he gave a eulogy for two marines killed in Iraq. Kelly described how, confronted by a suicide bomber in a truck, “they never stepped back. They never even started to step aside. They never even shifted their weight.”

总统幕僚长凯利的儿子在阿富汗战争中牺牲后不久,他为两名在伊拉克遇难的海军陆战队员致悼词。凯利讲述了他们在与卡车上的自杀式炸弹袭击者对峙时,“他们从未后退。从未有意往两边躲闪。甚至没有转移过重心”。

For that brave act, of course, they needed something Trump will never have: a center of gravity.

当然,要做出那种英勇的行为,他们需要拥有特朗普永远不会有的一种东西:重心。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表