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与核武国家为邻,韩国别无选择

更新时间:2017-8-22 19:58:50 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

South Korea Faces an Uncomfortable Reality: A Nuclear Neighbor
与核武国家为邻,韩国别无选择

SEOUL, South Korea — As the United States debates the wisdom of military action against North Korea, its allies in South Korea have largely moved on and reached an uncomfortable conclusion — that they may have no choice but to live with a nuclear-armed neighbor.

韩国首尔——在美国争论对朝采取军事行动是否明智的同时,它的韩国盟友却基本上已经选择向前看,并得出一个令人不安的结论——他们别无选择,只能接受一个拥有核武器的邻国。

U.S. and South Korean forces began twice-yearly war games Monday aimed at preparing for a possible attack by the North. But the idea of trying to knock out the North’s nuclear arsenal with a pre-emptive strike is a nonstarter across the political spectrum in South Korea, where millions live in range of North Korean artillery and rockets.

美国与韩国军队于周一开始了每年两次的军事演习,旨在为朝鲜可能发起的袭击做准备。但韩国各政治派别都认为,先制打击摧毁朝鲜核武库的想法是不可行的,韩国有数百万人生活在朝鲜的炮弹与火箭射程之内。

“In South Korea, whether you are a conservative or progressive, military action is not an option you can choose,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, the capital. “It’s an option of mass destruction.”

“在韩国,无论你是保守派还是进步派,军事行动都不是一个可选项,”首尔东国大学研究朝鲜问题的教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)说。“这个选项意味着大规模毁灭。”

That broad consensus was behind President Moon Jae-in’s assurances to South Korea last week that he stood firmly against a military strike on the North and that the Trump administration would seek the South’s consent before any such action. On Monday, Moon emphasized that the joint exercises this week were defensive in nature.

上周,文在寅(Moon Jae-in)总统向韩国人民保证,他坚决反对军事打击朝鲜,并主张特朗普政府在采取任何类似军事行动之前应征求韩国同意,这种立场是得到普遍支持的。周一,文在寅强调本周的联合演习是防御性的。

But if South Korea’s leaders have essentially ruled out the “preventive war” that the Trump administration says it is considering, they are still grappling with what options that leaves them.

但是,即便韩国领导人已经基本排除了特朗普当局声称正在考虑的“预防性战争”,剩下的选项依然是十分棘手的。

Moon contends that North Korea can be persuaded to forsake nuclear weapons through a combination of deft diplomacy and tough economic sanctions. Yet many across South Korea find that prospect highly unlikely. Ask people in the South whether the North will ever abandon its arsenal, and more often than not, the answer is: Would you if you were North Korean?

文在寅认为,如果将巧妙的外交与严厉的经济制裁结合起来,可以说服朝鲜放弃核武器。然而许多韩国人认为这条路希望渺茫。如果你问韩国人,朝鲜是否会放弃自己的核武库,更多的人不是直接说“不”,而是反问道:如果你是朝鲜人,你会不会这样做呢?

Still, South Korean politicians cannot openly agree with those like Susan E. Rice, a national security adviser to President Barack Obama, who recently argued that the world could tolerate and contain North Korea in the same way it did the nuclear threat from the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

尽管如此,韩国的政界人士也无法公开同意贝拉克·奥巴马总统的国家安全顾问苏珊·E·赖斯(Susan E. Rice)等人的意见,她最近声称,世界可以容忍和遏制朝鲜,就像冷战期间应对苏联的核威胁一样。

They cannot do so not because they do not believe that — many do — but because it would be politically difficult to accept the North’s nuclear arsenal without putting South Korea on equal footing with its own nuclear weapons.

他们不能这样做,不是因为他们不相信——很多人确实相信这一点——而是因为允许朝鲜拥有核武库,却不让韩国平等地拥有自己的核武器,这在政治上是很难接受的。

“Even if the North has effectively become a nuclear power, acknowledging it as one without South Korea itself going nuclear is politically untenable,” said Paik Hak-soon, a senior analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank south of Seoul.

“即使朝鲜已经在实际上成为核国家,一方面承认它是核国家,另一方面却不允许韩国发展核武器,这在政治上是站不住脚的,”位于首尔南部的智库世宗研究院(Sejong Institute)的高级分析师白鹤淳(Paik Hak-soon)说。

At the same time, South Korean leaders are unwilling to accept the view of Rice’s successor, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, who has maintained that “classical deterrence theory” cannot be applied to the North’s leader, Kim Jong Un, given his unpredictable nature and brutal record. Some South Korean analysts fear that such thinking would all but justify starting a war.

与此同时,韩国领导人也不愿接受赖斯继任者H·R·麦克马斯特(H.R. McMaster)中将的观点,他认为,由于朝鲜领导人金正恩不可预测的性格与残暴行为的记录,“经典威慑论”并不适用于他。一些韩国分析人士担心,这样的想法只会证明开战是有道理的。

It has not been lost on South Korea that Washington seemed to recognize the urgency of North Korea’s nuclear threat only after it demonstrated an ability to hit the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles last month — and not after earlier intelligence assessments concluded that the North could mount a nuclear warhead on a short-range missile capable of hitting the South.

韩国明白,只有当朝鲜像上个月那样,展现出自己有能力以洲际弹道导弹袭击美国之后,华盛顿似乎才会认识到朝鲜核威胁的紧迫性——早先的情报评估结果认为,朝鲜只能将核弹头装在可击中韩国的近程导弹上,那时的华盛顿并没有认识到这一点。

To South Koreans, the idea that North Korea would fire a nuclear-armed ICBM at the United States without being attacked is absurd. They argue that Kim knows the United States would retaliate by destroying the North and that they do not regard him as suicidal. Instead, the fear in South Korea is that the North will try to use its nuclear arsenal to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies in the region.

韩国人认为,如果朝鲜对美国发射带有核弹头的洲际弹道导弹,朝鲜本土却可以不受到攻击,这样的想法是荒谬的。他们认为,金正恩知道美国会通过摧毁朝鲜来报复,他们不认为他是在自寻死路。相反,韩国人更担心朝鲜试图利用其核武库,在美国与其在该地区的盟友之间制造隔阂。

In some ways, it is already doing so.

在某些方面,这样的目的已经达到了。

The more President Donald Trump and his advisers speak of attacking North Korea in a “preventive war,” the more South Koreans worry that the United States is putting its security ahead of their own. A recent interview in which Sen. Lindsey Graham said that Trump believed that “if thousands die, they’re going to die over there — they’re not going to die here” has exacerbated such suspicions and generated widespread outrage.

唐纳德·特朗普总统及其顾问愈是谈到通过“预防性战争”袭击朝鲜,韩国人就愈担心美国是在将其自身安全置于韩国安全之上。前不久,林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)参议员在接受采访时说,特朗普认为“如果会有成千上万人死掉,那也是死在那里——不会死在这里。”这番话加剧了这种怀疑,并且激起了广泛的愤慨。

Confusion over the Trump administration’s strategy has only contributed to anxiety in South Korea.

对特朗普政府战略的困惑更是加剧了韩国的焦虑。

In the past two decades, Washington has repeatedly tightened sanctions against North Korea. But “the more they isolated and pressured the North,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, “the more advanced its nuclear program has become.”

过去二十年来,华盛顿一再加紧对朝鲜的制裁。但是,“他们愈是隔离和压制朝鲜,朝鲜的核计划就愈成熟,”首尔朝鲜问题研究大学(University of North Korean Studies)的教授杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)说。

Moon has urged a more flexible approach, suggesting that Washington’s past insistence that North Korea commit to nuclear disarmament as a precondition for talks to begin may no longer be realistic. Instead, he has argued that the priority should be a freeze of the North’s nuclear and missile programs, though he has not been specific about how to achieve that.

文在寅呼吁采取更灵活的方式,他表示,华盛顿过去坚持朝鲜承诺核裁军是开始谈判的先决条件,如今这一点可能不再现实。相反,他认为,应当优先考虑冻结朝鲜的核武器与导弹计划,尽管他并没有具体说明如何实现这个目标。

“The solution to the North Korean nuclear issue has to start with a nuclear freeze,” he said during a nationally televised speech last week. “We don’t want the North to collapse. We will neither pursue unification by absorbing the North nor seek artificial unification.”

“朝鲜核问题的解决方案必须从核冻结开始,”他在上周的一次全国电视讲话中说。“我们不希望朝鲜崩溃。在实现统一的过程中,我们不打算吞并朝鲜,也不想要一种假装的统一。”

Koh, the Dongguk University professor, said the government’s best hope might be to transform North Korea in the long term “like in the old Soviet Union” by encouraging economic liberalization and promoting the flow of information into the isolated nation, including South Korean movies and television dramas.

东国大学的高有焕教授说,政府最大的希望可能是通过鼓励经济自由化,以及促进韩国电影和电视剧等信息流入朝鲜,从而改造这个孤立的国家,“就像以前的苏联”那样。

But others analysts warn that may be more wishful thinking. Unlike China and Russia, they note, North Korea shares a peninsula with a neighbor with which its people will always draw direct comparisons. As long as the South remains the more successful Korean state — its economy is now more than 20 times bigger — the autocratic government in North will consider it an existential threat, they argue.

但其他分析人士警告说,这可能更像是一厢情愿的想法。他们指出,与中国和俄罗斯不同的是,朝鲜与韩国共处一个半岛,朝鲜人民总会将两国进行直接对比。这些分析人士认为,只要韩国仍然是朝鲜半岛上更成功的国家——如今它的经济已经超过朝鲜20倍——朝鲜的专制政府便会将韩国视为生死攸关的威胁。

“A nuclear North Korea will not behave like a conventional nuclear state,” said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. “Its nuclear threats will only grow.”

“拥有核武器的朝鲜不会像传统核国家那样行事,”塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院(Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University)的朝鲜问题专家李成允(Lee Sung-yoon)说。“它的核威胁只会增长。”

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