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理解关岛危机的五个关键问题

更新时间:2017-8-16 20:55:48 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Key Questions on North Korea’s Plan to Fire Missiles Near Guam
理解关岛危机的五个关键问题

HONG KONG — North Korea has said it may fire missiles into waters near Guam, an American territory in the Western Pacific, escalating the standoff with the United States over the North’s nuclear program. Here are the questions raised by the threat.

香港——朝鲜表示可能会向美国在西太平洋的领土关岛附近水域发射导弹,导致朝鲜核计划引发的朝美对峙升级。以下是这个威胁引出的一些问题。

What has North Korea said it will do?

朝鲜称自己会怎么做?

North Korea said last week that it was fine-tuning plans to launch four intermediate-range ballistic missiles into waters 30 to 40 kilometers, or 19 to 25 miles, off Guam in what it said would be an “enveloping fire.” The military said at the time that it was waiting for a final order from Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea.

朝鲜上周称正在对向距离关岛30至40公里的水域发射四枚中程弹道导弹的计划进行微调,让关岛“陷入烈焰的包围”。朝鲜军方当时说,正在等朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)下达最后的命令。

On Tuesday, state news media reported that Mr. Kim said he would watch American actions “a little more” before proceeding and praised his commanders for presenting him with “a close and careful plan.”

周二,朝鲜的官方新闻媒体报道,金正恩称在继续行动前“略微再”观察一下美国的表现,并称赞手下的将领提交了“一份严密、细致的方案”。

He made the remarks after a briefing by the command of the Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army, which is responsible for missile launches. A photograph of the meeting featured a screen showing what appeared to be a satellite view of the American Air Force base on Guam.

金正恩是在负责导弹发射的朝鲜人民军战略军(Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army)司令部向其介绍了相关情况后做出此番表述的。一张会议现场的照片上有一个屏幕,上面似乎是从卫星上看到的关岛美国空军基地的情况。

Does that mean North Korea has backed off?

这是否意味着朝鲜让步了?

For the moment, perhaps. North Korea has made threats in the past that it did not deliver on, and the language in Tuesday’s report gives it a way out.

眼下可能是。朝鲜过去有过发出威胁但不兑现的先例,周二报道中的语言给了它后路。

“They do this all the time,” said Daniel Pinkston, a lecturer in international relations at Troy University who is based in Seoul. “They always turn it into victory and say because of these military capabilities and their forces, they can deter any attack against them.”

“他们一直都是这么干的,”首尔特洛伊大学(Troy University)国际关系讲师丹尼尔·平克斯顿(Daniel Pinkston)说。“他们永远都会把它变成胜利,说因为军事实力和军队,他们能够威慑针对他们的任何攻击。”

But Mr. Kim said that his decision would depend on what the United States did.

但金正恩说,他的决定取决于美国怎么做。

“In order to defuse the tensions and prevent dangerous military conflict on the Korean Peninsula, it is necessary for the U.S. to make a proper option first and show it in action,” Mr. Kim said.

“为了在朝鲜半岛地区缓和局势、防止危险的军事冲突,美国首先应作出正确的选择并付诸行动,”金正恩说。

Why is North Korea doing this?

朝鲜为什么这么做?

North Korea may be pushing back against certain military maneuvers by the Pentagon — and signaling its willingness to exercise restraint if the United States steps back, too.

朝鲜可能是在反击五角大楼的军演,表明如果美国让步,自己也愿意保持克制。

The United Nations Security Council adopted tough sanctions this month that American officials said could cut the North’s export revenue by as much as a third.

联合国安理会本月通过了对朝鲜的严厉制裁,美国官员称本轮制裁可能会导致朝鲜的出口收入减少三分之一。

North Korea threatened last week to fire missiles at Guam after President Trump warned that the United States would unleash “fire and fury” if the isolated authoritarian state endangered it. The North then released more details of the plan and said it would teach Mr. Trump a lesson.

上周,在特朗普警告称如果危及美国,这个与世隔绝的威权主义国家将遭遇美国的“炮火与怒火”后,朝鲜威胁要朝关岛发射导弹。后来,朝鲜公布了该计划的更多细节,并称要给特朗普上一课。

But its initial statement made no mention of Mr. Trump and instead noted that the United States had flown two B-1B bombers from Guam over the Korean Peninsula in late July.

但朝鲜最初的声明没有提及特朗普,而是指出美国7月末派出两架B-1B轰炸机从关岛出发,飞越朝鲜半岛。

The Pentagon said the bombers were sent to Guam from Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota last month as part of a regular rotation.

五角大楼称,上月的轰炸机是从南达科他州的埃尔斯沃思空军基地派去关岛的,属于常规的工作轮换。

The North also condemned the test of an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile this month that the United States launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California and splashed down in the Pacific about 1,500 miles east of Guam.

朝鲜还谴责美国本月进行的那次未安装弹头的洲际弹道导弹试验。该导弹从加利福尼亚州范登堡空军基地发射,坠入关岛以东大约1500英里(约合2414公里)的太平洋。

On Tuesday, North Korea accused the United States of deploying “huge nuclear strategic equipment around the peninsula” and warned that it should “stop at once its arrogant provocation.” But South Korea and the United States are planning to conduct biannual military exercises next week over the North’s objections.

周二,朝鲜指责美国“在朝鲜半岛周围部署大型核战略设备”,并警告美国应该“马上停止目中无人的挑衅”。但韩国和美国不顾朝鲜的反对,正计划在下周举行一年两次的军事演习。

Can the missiles accurately hit the waters off Guam?

朝鲜导弹能准确击中关岛附近水域吗?

North Korea’s ballistic missile program has shown drastic improvement in recent months. It conducted two tests in July of a new intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-14, that demonstrated a potential range of 6,500 miles, meaning it could hit the West Coast, the Rockies and much of the Midwest.

最近几个月,朝鲜的弹道导弹计划表现出了巨大进步。朝鲜7月两次试射新型洲际弹道导弹“火星—14型”(Hwasong-14)。试验显示其潜在射程为6500英里(约合10460公里),这意味着它能击中西海岸、落基山脉和中西部的很多地区。

But its statements about Guam have specified that it intends to use a different missile, the Hwasong-12, which is classified as intermediate-range and is fired from mobile launchers.

但关于关岛的声明明确表示,它打算使用另一种导弹“火星-12型”(Hwasong-12)。该导弹被归为中程导弹,从移动发射装置发射。

The North is believed to have conducted only four test flights of the Hwasong-12. The first three tests, all in April, ended in failure, with the missiles crashing or exploding soon after launch.

朝鲜据信只对“火星-12型”进行过四次试验。前三次都在4月进行,均以失败告终,导弹不是坠毁,就是在发射后不久爆炸。

But the fourth test, in May, was deemed a success, soaring to an altitude of 1,312 miles before hitting targeted open water 489 miles away.

但5月进行的第四次试验被认为成功了。导弹升至1312英里(约合2111公里)的高度,然后击中489英里(约合787公里)外的目标开阔水域。

State news media said the missile was fired at a high angle so it would not fall too close to any country. If flown on a standard trajectory, analysts said, the missile would have a maximum range of about 2,800 miles, putting Guam in striking distance.

官方新闻媒体称,导弹是以较大的角度发射的,这样它就不会坠落在任何国家附近。分析人士称,如果按照标准轨迹飞行,该导弹的最大射程约为2800英里(约合4506公里),关岛正好处在其攻击距离内。

The accuracy of the missile, though, is difficult to judge given that it has been successfully tested only once.

但考虑到只成功试射过一次,该导弹的精准性难以判断。

In its statement last week, North Korea said it would send the four missiles on a 2,086-mile course that flies over Japan. That raised fears that a misfire could endanger residents there.

在上周的声明中,朝鲜表示将发射四枚射程2086英里(约合3357公里)的导弹飞越日本上空。这引起了对试验失败可能危及民众的担忧。

“Given the fact that North Korea continues to exceed expectations with the rapid acceleration of its program, to discount its abilities would be foolish, hence alarmism is a cautious approach” said Gordon Flake, a Korea specialist at the University of Western Australia.

“考虑到朝鲜继续出人意料地迅速加快其计划,低估它的实力是愚蠢之举,因此保持警惕是谨慎的做法,”西澳大学(University of Western Australia)的朝鲜问题专家戈登·弗雷克(Gordon Flake)说。

“But whether they can hit Guam or not, I don’t think the North Koreans know that,” he added.

“但他们能不能击中关岛,我觉得朝鲜自己知道,”他接着说。

How would the United States respond?

美国可能会作何回应?

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters Monday that the United States would be able to determine the destination of any missile within moments of launch and would shoot down missiles aimed at its territory.

国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)周一对记者表示,美国能够在发射的那一刻判断出任何导弹的目的地,并击落朝美国国土发射的导弹。

“If they fire at the United States, it could escalate into war very quickly,” he warned.

“如果他们朝美国发射,很快就会升级成战争,”他警告说。

But pressed on what the United States would do if a missile hit the waters near Guam but not the island itself, Mr. Mattis replied, “Well, then it becomes an issue that we take up however the president chooses.”

但被追问如果导弹击中关岛附近水域而不是关岛本身,美国会采取什么措施时,马蒂斯回答说,“嗯,这就变成总统怎么选择我们怎么做的问题了。”

“You can’t make all those kinds of decisions in advance,” he continued. “There’s a host of things going on. There’s allies that we consult with, as the president made very clear last week.”

“你没法提前做所有这些决定,”他继续说。“很多事情正在发生。我们会咨询盟友,这一点总统在上周就说得很清楚了。”

“I need a certain amount of ambiguity on this, because I’m not going to tell them what I’m going to do in each case,” he added.

“我需要在这个问题上表现出一定程度的模棱两可,因为我不会告诉他们我在每种情况下会怎么做,”他补充说。

The North’s plan would have the missiles splash down outside the 13.8-mile limit of Guam’s territorial waters. Nonproliferation experts said they could think of no precedent for a nation testing its missiles in such proximity to a rival.

朝鲜的计划是让导弹坠落在关岛13.8英里(约合22公里)领海的范围之外。防扩散专家称,他们无法举出一国在离竞争对手这么近的地方试验导弹的先例。

North Korea said its missiles would take 17 minutes and 45 seconds to reach their target, meaning that Mr. Trump could be briefed while they are midflight.

朝鲜称其导弹需17分45秒的时间击中目标。这意味着可能导弹还在路上时,特朗普就知道消息了。

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