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金正恩:一个手握核武器的80后

更新时间:2017-8-12 10:30:42 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Meet Kim Jong-un, a Moody Young Man With a Nuclear Arsenal
金正恩:一个手握核武器的80后

SEOUL, South Korea — In the United States, a senator recently referred to him as “this crazy fat kid.” President Donald Trump once called him “a total nut job.”

韩国首尔——在美国,一名参议员最近称之为“这疯狂的小胖子”。唐纳德·特朗普总统曾叫他“不折不扣的疯子”。

But the target of all that scorn, Kim Jong Un, the 33-year-old leader of North Korea, has long been underestimated.

但作为上述冷嘲热讽的对象,现年33岁的朝鲜领导人金正恩一直以来都被低估了。

Kim was the youngest of three sons yet leapfrogged his brothers to succeed his father, Kim Jong Il. Many analysts dismissed him as an inexperienced figurehead when he took power at 27; some predicted he would never last. But almost six years later, there is little doubt he is firmly in control.

在金正日(Kim Jong Il)的三个儿子当中,金正恩年纪最小,却越过两名兄长,继承了父亲手中的权柄。当他在27岁的年纪上台的时候,很多分析人士将他贬为没有政治经验的傀儡;有人甚至预测,他的统治绝不可能长久。但将近六年过后再看,毫无疑问,他牢牢地掌控着权力。

Now, against long odds, Kim is on the verge of making his isolated, impoverished nation one of very few in the world that can hit the United States with a nuclear-armed missile.

在面临一种极为渺茫的可能性的情况下,他接近于让孤立而又贫穷的朝鲜,成为世界上少数几个有能力以搭载核弹头的导弹袭击美国的国家之一。

Some have urged Trump to open negotiations with him. But it is unclear whether Kim is interested in talking. He has made building a nuclear arsenal a top priority, arguing that it is the only way the North can guarantee its security and develop its economy.

一些人不断敦促特朗普开启与他的谈判。但尚不清楚金正恩对谈判是否感兴趣。他已经把打造核武库当成重中之重,宣称只有这样朝鲜才能保障自身安全、发展本国经济。

His ultimate motives, like many details of his life, are uncertain. Since taking power, Kim has yet to travel abroad or host a visit from another state leader. Only a few people outside North Korea have been allowed to meet with him — the former basketball star Dennis Rodman, a Japanese sushi chef, the vice presidents of Cuba and China.

至于他的终极动机,则像他生活中的很多细节一样,并不为人所知。自从上台以来,金正恩尚未踏出国门一步,也未以东道主的身份招待过其他国家的最高领导人。朝鲜外部的人士只有少数几个获准与他相见——前篮球明星丹尼斯·罗德曼(Dennis Rodman),一名制作寿司的日本厨师,以及古巴的副总统和中国的副主席。

What little is known of Kim’s record suggests ruthlessness — and some ideological flexibility.

关于金正恩的一鳞半爪的信息表明,他非常无情,不过在意识形态上具有某种灵活性。

South Korean intelligence officials say Kim has executed scores of senior officials, including his own uncle, a wily power broker who had been seen as his mentor. He is also assumed to have ordered the assassination of his half brother, Kim Jong Nam, who was poisoned by VX nerve agent at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia in February.

韩国情报官员称,金正恩已经处决了众多高级官员,其中包括他的姑父,一名被视作其导师的老谋深算的权力掮客。他还被认为下令刺杀了同父异母的哥哥金正男(Kim Jong Nam),后者于今年2月在马来西亚吉隆坡国际机场(Kuala Lumpur International Airport)被人以VX神经毒剂毒杀。

Yet Kim Jong Un is also credited with loosening state controls on the economy and engineering modest growth, and regaining some of the public confidence that the dynastic regime enjoyed under his grandfather and lost under his father, whose rule is remembered for a devastating famine.

不过金正恩也有受到称赞之处,他放松了政府对经济的控制、促成了些许增长,并让民众在某种程度上重拾了对金氏王朝的信心——他祖父掌权的时候,民众的信心还是很足的,但他父亲的统治以一场灾难性的大饥荒而为世人铭记,那期间民众对金氏王朝失去了一些信心。

“Smart, pragmatic, decisive,” Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, said of Kim. “But also capricious, moody and ready to kill easily.”

“聪明、务实、果断,”首尔国民大学(Kookmin University)朝鲜问题专家安德烈·兰科夫(Andrei Lankov)提及金正恩时说。“但也任性、喜怒无常,容易起杀心。”

Kim first appeared in North Korean state media in September 2010, little more than a year before he succeeded his father as supreme leader. Until then, it was not clear whether he would succeed his father. The outside world had never even seen a photograph of him as an adult.

金正恩于2010年9月首次在朝鲜国有媒体上亮相,再过一年多一点儿,他就会接替他父亲担任该国最高领导人。但直到那时,人们尚不清楚他是否能继承父位。外界此前甚至从未见过他成年后的照片。

The eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, was widely considered the heir apparent until 2001, when he was caught attempting to visit Tokyo Disneyland on a false passport. Kim Jong Il’s second son, Kim Jong Chol, was seen at an Eric Clapton concert in London in 2015, but it is unclear why he was passed over for succession. One of the only clues comes from Kenji Fujimoto, the Kim family’s former sushi chef, who wrote in a memoir published in 2003 after he escaped North Korea in 2001 that the elder Kim considered the child too “effeminate.”

金正日的长子金正男原本被普遍视为理所当然的继任者,直到他于2001年被逮到试图持假护照去逛东京迪士尼。2015年,有人看到金正日的次子金正哲(Kim Jong Chol)在伦敦现身埃里克·克莱普顿(Eric Clapton)的一场音乐会,但尚不清楚他为何没被选为继承人。仅有的几条线索之一来自藤本健二(Kenji Fujimoto)。曾是金家御用寿司厨师、于2001年逃离朝鲜的他,在出版于2003年的一本回忆录里写到,金正日觉得这个儿子太“柔弱”。

But Kim Jong Il adored his third son, Kim Jong Un, and saw his own domineering attitude and other leadership qualities in the boy at an early age.

不过金正日很喜爱三儿子金正恩,在他很小的时候就从他身上看到了自己的那种霸气,以及其他一些领导特质。

“He learned how power works from early age,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies in Dongguk University in Seoul.

“他从小就了解权力是如何运作的,”首尔东国大学(Dongguk University)研究朝鲜问题的教授高有焕(Koh Yu-hwan)说。

Kim is believed to have studied in public schools in Switzerland disguised as the son of a North Korean diplomat from 1996 until at least 2000. The classes were taught in German, and Kim struggled with the language. A video recorded at the time shows him uncomfortably tapping a tambourine in a music class.

金正恩据信曾假扮成一名朝鲜外交官之子,在瑞士的公立学校里求学,从1996年至少学到2000年。老师以德语授课,那门语言让金正恩颇为挠头。当时录制的一段视频显示,金正恩在音乐课上很不自在地敲击着手鼓。

There is evidence that Kim’s time as a youth in Europe, and perhaps elsewhere, left an impression. In his memoir, Fujimoto recalled conversations with Kim as a teenager in which the future leader expressed frustration with power shortages at home and marveled at overseas department stores. Kim suggested that North Korea should learn from China’s market-oriented economic policies, Fujimoto wrote.

有证据表明,年少时在欧洲,或许还有其他地方的经历,给金正恩留下了深刻印象。藤本健二在其回忆录中忆及了他与少年金正恩的对话。当时,未来的朝鲜最高领导人表达了对本国电力短缺的沮丧之情,还对海外的百货商店赞叹不已。藤本健二写到,金正恩曾表示,朝鲜应该学习中国的以市场为导向的经济政策。

Such accounts have left some analysts hopeful.

这类描述让一些分析人士抱有希望。

“When the time comes, Kim Jong Un is expected to adopt policies that will ease his country’s isolation and embrace good things from the West,” Paik Hak-soon, a North Korea expert at the Sejong Institute, a think tank outside Seoul, said in a paper on Kim’s leadership published in February.

“待时机成熟,金正恩应该会采取可以缓解本国孤立处境的政策,拥抱来自西方的美好事物,”首尔城外世宗研究院(Sejong Institute in Seoul)朝鲜问题专家白鹤淳(Paik Hak-soon),在2月份发表的一篇以金正恩的领导力为题的文章中说。

But first came what South Korean officials have called a “reign of terror.”

但首先浮出水面的是韩国官员口中的“恐怖统治”。

After his father’s death, Kim’s hold on power is believed to have been precarious. Outside North Korea, many assumed he was the supreme leader in name only, with real power in the hands of Jang Song Thaek, his uncle and regent.

父亲去世后,金正恩对权力的掌控被认为岌岌可危。朝鲜外部的很多人一度认为他只是名义上的最高领导人,握有实权的则是他的姑父兼摄政张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)。

Jang appeared to help his nephew carry out a systematic purge, replacing many of the nation’s most powerful generals and bureaucrats, according to South Korean intelligence officials.

韩国情报官员称,张成泽当年似乎帮助侄子进行了一场系统性的大清洗,换掉了朝鲜很多颇有影响力的将军和官员。

But two years into his rule, Kim moved against his uncle, too, arranging for him to be arrested by uniformed officers during a Politburo meeting while hundreds of party delegates watched. Jang was executed on charges that included clapping “halfheartedly” when Kim entered the room and plotting to overthrow him.

但上台两年后,金正恩对自己的姑父采取了行动,派身穿制服的人员在一场中央政治局会议上当着数以百计的党代表的面将其逮捕。张成泽后来被处决,罪名包括在金正恩进入会场时“敷衍了事”地鼓掌,以及阴谋推翻金正恩的统治。

In total, since taking power, Kim is believed to have executed more than 140 senior officials.

金正恩自上台以来,据信总共处决了140余名高级官员。

“He moved quickly and ruthlessly,” said Daniel A. Pinkston, a Seoul-based expert in international relations at Troy University in Alabama. “I think most people did not expect a man so young to be so proficient at managing his dictatorship.”

“他迅速而又无情地采取了行动,”阿拉巴马州特洛伊大学(Troy University)驻首尔的国际关系专家丹尼尔·平克斯顿(Daniel Pinkston)说。“我想大多数人都没料到,这么年轻的一个人会如此善于进行独裁统治。”

Kim has improved access to food and goods by allowing more market activities. He has also launched a building boom in Pyongyang, where the most loyal citizens are allowed to live.

金正恩允许开展更多市场活动,从而拓展了人们获取食物和商品的渠道。他还在平壤发动了一场建设热潮。那座城市是只有最忠诚的国民才会获准居住的地方。

But conditions remain dismal outside the showcase capital, and further growth may require an end to the sanctions that limit the North’s ability to trade with the world. And that would mean giving up the nuclear program.

但在作为展示窗口的首都之外,情况依然很惨淡;要进一步促进增长,或许得让限制朝鲜与外界的贸易往来的制裁走向终结。这意味着放弃核项目。

Kim, however, appears to see the problem differently. More than 30,000 North Koreans have fled since the famine of the 1990s, and defectors say he must keep the country isolated because he is afraid of it being swallowed by the South.

而金正恩似乎对此问题有不同看法。自从1990年代的大饥荒以来,已有超过3万人逃离朝鲜;脱北者说,他必须让朝鲜保持孤立,因为担心韩国将其吞并。

That is where the nuclear arsenal comes in. His government has argued that it needs nuclear arms to protect itself from being toppled like others who gave up weapons of mass destruction; the state news media has pointed to Moammar Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein.

核武库由此进入他的视野。他的政府宣称,需要以核武器保卫自己不像其他放弃大规模杀伤性武器的政府那样被推翻——国有媒体已经点了穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲(Moammar Gadhafi)和萨达姆·侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)的名。

But the North has also said it hopes to use nuclear arms to force the world, including the United States, to accept it as a full member of the international community on its terms.

但朝鲜还表示,希望利用核武器迫使包括美国在内的世界各国按照朝鲜自己的条件接纳它为国际社会的正式成员。

“Kim Jong Un is here to rule for decades, playing the long game,” said Koh, the Dongguk University professor. “Over time, he believes that the world will have no option but to accept his country as a nuclear power.”

“金正恩会掌权数十年,他在放眼于长远,”东国大学教授高有焕说。“他相信,随着时间推移,国际社会将别无选择,只能承认朝鲜是有核国家。”

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