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特朗普的威胁在亚洲拉响警报

更新时间:2017-8-10 18:34:25 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s ‘Fire and Fury’ Threat Raises Alarm in Asia
特朗普的威胁在亚洲拉响警报

BEIJING — President Trump’s threat to unleash “fire and fury” against North Korea sent a shudder through Asia on Wednesday, raising alarm among allies and adversaries and, to some observers, making the possibility of military conflict over the North’s nuclear program seem more real.

北京——周三,特朗普总统对朝鲜发出的“炮火与怒火”的威胁在亚洲引起震动,盟国和对手都对此感到警惕,在一些观察人士看来,朝鲜核计划引发军事冲突的可能性似乎也更真实了。

With North Korea responding that it would, if attacked, strike American military forces on Guam, analysts warned that the escalating statements increased the likelihood of war — perhaps one based on miscalculation, should one side’s fiery statements be misread by the other.

朝鲜回应说,如果遭受攻击,他们就会打击驻关岛的美军,分析人士警告说,不断升级的声明提升了战争的可能性——如果一方的狠话被另一方误解,误判可能就会引发战争。

Some played down Mr. Trump’s remark on Tuesday as simply a warning not to attack the United States, albeit one whose tone was more typical of North Korean propagandists than it was of past American presidents. Officials in South Korea and Japan said that while the situation was tense, it had not reached a crisis point.

有些人对特朗普周二的言论进行了淡化,说那只是在警告朝鲜不要袭击美国,尽管这个警告的语气更像是典型的朝鲜宣传腔,而不像往届的美国总统。韩国和日本官员表示,虽然局势紧张,但还没有到危机的程度。

Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson played down any imminent threat from North Korea, saying Wednesday, “I think Americans should sleep well at night, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days.”

美国国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)淡化了来自朝鲜的任何迫在眉睫的威胁,周三他表示:“我认为美国人晚上可以安心睡觉,不用担心过去几天里的这种特殊言论。”

Still, some in the region said the danger of war had not seemed as clear and present in decades. What was unthinkable just years ago no longer seems so, they said.

不过,该地区的一些人表示,过去几十年来,开战的危险似乎都没有像现在这么清晰。他们说,这种事情放到几年前还会觉得不可思议,但现在已经不是这样了。

“We’re going to see a confrontation between the United States and North Korea that will be ferocious and strong and bloody,” said Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing who called Mr. Trump’s language “explosive.”

“我们将看到美国与朝鲜之间的对抗将会变得凶狠、剧烈而血腥。”位于北京的人民大学国际关系学院副教授成晓河说。他把特朗普的言论称为“爆炸性的”。

Professor Cheng said he was puzzled by the timing of Mr. Trump’s remark, just days after the United Nations Security Council imposed the toughest economic penalties yet on North Korea for its nuclear and missile programs. That unanimous vote, which overcame China’s historical reluctance to punish its ally harshly, has been widely described as the Trump administration’s greatest diplomatic accomplishment so far.

成晓河说,他对特朗普发表这番言论的时间点感到困惑,因为就在数日前,联合国安理会对于朝鲜核计划和导弹计划刚实施了最严厉的经济惩罚。制裁提议获得一致通过,这被广泛视为特朗普政府迄今为止最大的外交成果,因为在此之前,中国一直不太情愿严厉惩罚朝鲜这个盟友。

“Usually, the U.S. government is willing to give more time for a resolution, to see how the resolutions bite,” Professor Cheng said.

成晓河表示:“通常情况下,美国政府会多留出一点时间,来看看这些决议成效如何。”

Across the region on Wednesday, analysts reacted with concern and even foreboding about the tone of Mr. Trump’s comments, and about the unimpeded progress that North Korea appears to be making toward becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, able to strike the United States or other far-off adversaries.

周三,该地区的分析人士对特朗普的论调,对朝鲜似乎正在势不可挡地变成一个羽翼渐丰的核国家、可以对美国或其他远方的敌人进行打击的趋势表示了担忧,甚至有了不详的预感。

While Mr. Trump’s warning that North Korea, if it kept threatening the United States, would “be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen” clearly reflected growing American frustration over the North’s advances, analysts said it was not clear that he had fully considered the implications of such strong language.

虽然特朗普的警告——如果朝鲜不断威胁美国,就会承受前所未见的“炮火与怒火”——清楚地显示出美国对朝鲜核进展越来越强烈的挫败感,分析人士表示,并不清楚他是否充分考虑过这种强烈语言的影响。

That, they said, raised questions about the administration’s strategy, and about whether Mr. Trump recognized the price that some of America’s staunchest allies, especially Japan and South Korea, could pay for carrying out his threat.

他们说,这就提出了涉及特朗普政府战略的问题,以及特朗普是否认识到美国的一些忠诚盟友,特别是日本和韩国,可能为了实施他的威胁会付出怎样的代价。

“Trump doesn’t seem to understand what an alliance is, and doesn’t seem to consider his ally when he says those things,” said Lee Byong-chul, a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul, South Korea’s capital. “No American president has mentioned a military option so easily, so offhandedly as he has. He unnerves people in South Korea, few of whom want war in Korea.”

“特朗普似乎并不了解什么是联盟,在他说这些话的时候似乎并没有考虑到他的盟友。”首尔和平与合作研究所(Institute for Peace and Cooperation)高级研究员李炳哲(Lee Byong-chul)说。“没有哪个美国总统像他这样轻易、轻率地提到军事选项。他让韩国人感到不安,韩国很少有人想要打仗。”

Mr. Trump’s warning followed a report that American intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has made a nuclear weapon that can fit on the tip of a ballistic missile. Such drastic advances have already led Japan and South Korea to consider deploying new, more powerful weapons to counter the threat, after decades of relying on American military might for strategic security.

特朗普的警告发布之前,有报道称,美国情报机构认为朝鲜已经制造出可以搭载在弹道导弹上的核武器。这样的巨大进展,使得日本和韩国都在考虑部署更强大的新武器来对抗这种威胁,虽然在过去几十年里,他们一直依靠美国军力来保证自身的战略安全。

Itsunori Onodera, Japan’s new defense minister, said Wednesday that Japan found it credible that North Korea had succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead, or that it would do so in the near future. “At the very least, whether they have them now or will have them soon, it’s reached a level where we have to monitor vigilantly,” he said.

日本新任防卫大臣小野寺五典(Itsunori Onodera)周三表示,日本认为朝鲜已经成功实现了核弹头的小型化,或者在不久的将来就能做到这一点。他说:“起码来说,不管他们是否已经做到,还是不久就能做到,它都达到一个我们必须小心提防的水平。”

Officials in Asia and beyond have grown used to provocative musings by Mr. Trump, particularly on Twitter, and they tend to ignore them or to treat them as inaccurate reflections of American policy. But analysts saw his “fire and fury” remark as dangerous and unlikely to deter North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

亚洲及其他地方的官员已经习惯了特朗普的挑衅性言论,特别是在推特上,他们倾向于不予理会,认为它们并没有准确反映出美国的政策。但是分析人士认为,他关于“炮火与怒火”的言论很危险,而且也无法阻止朝鲜领导人金正恩。

“We are used to painting North Korea as ‘unpredictable,’ but increasingly it is the U.S. that is introducing strategic unpredictability into a volatile dynamic,” Euan Graham, an analyst at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, wrote in an email.

“我们习惯于将朝鲜形容为‘不可预测’,但现在是美国日益把战略上的不可预测性引入到了动荡局面中。”澳大利亚悉尼的洛伊国际政策研究所(Lowy Institute)的分析师尤安·格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)在一封电邮中表示。

He added that Mr. Trump’s warning would not have its desired effect because “the North Koreans have an ear for bluster.”

他说,特朗普的警告不会达到预期效果,因为“朝鲜人听得出来这是在唬人”。

Professor Cheng of Renmin University said that North Korea’s defiance in response to the Security Council’s latest sanctions indicated that it had no intention of slowing its program. He said that nations across the region, including his own, needed to prepare for the consequences of a conflict.

中国人民大学教授成晓河说,朝鲜对安理会最新制裁的无视表明,他们无意放慢核计划的节奏。他说,该地区各国,包括中国在内,都需要为冲突的后果作好准备。

“We are in a very dangerous time, and China is going to need to take notice and prepare for the worst,” he said.

他说:“我们处于非常危险的时期,中国需要留意,为最坏的情况做好准备。”

China’s Foreign Ministry, responding Wednesday to an inquiry about Mr. Trump’s threat, restated its position that the North Korean nuclear issue should be resolved by political means and that “all relevant parties” should avoid “remarks and acts that may escalate the conflict.”

在回答关于特朗普威胁言论的问题时,中国外交部周三重申了其立场,即以政治手段解决朝鲜核问题,“有关各方”应避免“可能引发冲突升级的言论和行为”。

The South Korean government sought on Wednesday to ease concern, saying that the North’s recent posturing, including its threat to attack Guam, appeared to be aimed at tightening solidarity among its own population and causing its neighbors anxiety.

韩国政府周三试图淡化这种担忧,称朝鲜最近的姿态,包括发出袭击关岛的威胁,目的似乎是要加强本国人民的团结,挑动邻国的焦虑感。

“The situation has become more serious on the Korean Peninsula,” a senior official at the presidential Blue House told South Korean reporters, speaking in a briefing on the condition of anonymity. “But we don’t think it has reached a crisis stage yet.”

“朝鲜半岛局势变得更加严重了,”青瓦台一名不愿具名的高级官员在一次媒体吹风会上对韩国记者说道。“但是我们并不认为已经达到了危机阶段。”

In Japan, a senior government official sought to frame Mr. Trump’s remark as an effort to warn Mr. Kim’s government that military action remained a possibility, even as the new sanctions begin going into effect.

在日本,一位政府高级官员试图将特朗普的言论解读为一种努力——警告金正恩的政府,即使新的制裁开始生效,美国也仍然有可能采取军事行动。

“He’s saying that the United States is putting all options on the table,” said the official, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga. “Our government approves of that stance. It’s extremely important that the Japan-U.S. alliance further strengthens its ability to deter and respond.”

“他说美国把所有选项都摆在了桌面。”日本内阁官房长官菅义伟(Yoshihide Suga)说。“我们的政府赞成这个立场。日美同盟进一步加强遏制和响应能力极为重要。”

Even so, Mr. Trump’s language resonated deeply in Japan, which on Wednesday commemorated the 72nd anniversary of the dropping of an American atomic bomb on Nagasaki, three days after one was dropped on Hiroshima.

即使如此,特朗普的言论也在日本引发了强烈反响。本周三是长崎被美国原子弹轰炸72周年的纪念日,即当年广岛被轰炸的三天之后。

“The world has seen American fire and fury in Hiroshima and Nagasaki 72 years ago,” Kiichi Fujiwara, a professor of international politics at Tokyo University, wrote bitingly on Twitter. He added that for Mr. Trump to use such language was “reckless and unwise, even as an act of deterrence.”

“72年前,广岛和长崎就见识过美国的炮火与怒火,”东京大学(University of Tokyo)国际政治专家藤原归一(Kiichi Fujiwara)在推特上挖苦道。他说,特朗普使用这种措辞“就算是为了威慑,也是鲁莽而不明智的”。

Tong Zhao, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said that China still believed that a deal to defuse tensions could be reached, with North Korea agreeing to suspend its nuclear and missile tests in exchange for a halt to joint American and South Korean military exercises. China has raised that possibility repeatedly.

清华-卡内基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy)的核政策专家赵通表示,中国依旧认为,美韩停止联合军演换取朝鲜同意暂停核试验和导弹试验,通过达成协议来缓解紧张局势是可行的。中国已经多次提出过这种可能性。

“It’s already a fact on the ground that North Korea has a credible nuclear deterrence,” he said. “The best we can do at the moment is to deter North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons and contain the growth of their nuclear and missile capabilities.”

“朝鲜拥有可信的核威慑已经是个事实。”他说:“目前我们能采取的最好做法就是阻止朝鲜使用核武器,遏制其核能力和导弹能力的增长。”

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