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4个问题快速了解朝鲜危机最新进展

更新时间:2017-8-10 18:30:12 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Answers to 4 Crucial Questions About North Korea
4个问题快速了解朝鲜危机最新进展

HONG KONG — The decades-long war of words between the United States and North Korea escalated on Tuesday, when President Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury” if the rogue state continued its bellicose missile and nuclear tests.

香港——美国与朝鲜之间长达数十年的口水仗在本周二出现升级,特朗普威胁说,如果朝鲜这个流氓国家继续开展咄咄逼人的核试验和导弹试验,美国将报之以“炮火与怒火”。

Hours later, Pyongyang warned of a strike that would create “an enveloping fire” around Guam, the Pacific island on which the United States has a crucial Air Force base.

几小时后,平壤警告说,如果发起打击,会让关岛“陷入烈焰的包围”。关岛是一个太平洋岛屿,美国在那里建有重要的空军基地。

Keeping track of all of the weapons tests, sanctions and diplomatic talks can be dizzying. But The New York Times has been covering the situation closely. Here is the background, along with some highlights of our coverage if you want a more in-depth look at the situation:

全面跟踪武器测试、制裁和外交协议的消息可能会令人眼花缭乱。但《纽约时报》一直在紧密关注这方面的进展。如果你想深入了解情况,以下就是背景介绍,以及我们报道的一些重点:

Does North Korea have nuclear weapons?

朝鲜拥有核武器吗?

Yes. Intelligence reports suggest that the North Koreans have figured out how to miniaturize a weapon, but not how to deliver it intact to the United States.

是的。情报报告显示,朝鲜人已经解决了如何让核武器小型化的问题,但尚未弄清如何将其毫发无损地发射到美国。

In 2016, Pyongyang released a photograph of its leader, Kim Jong-un, posing with the country’s first miniaturized nuclear warhead. We took a careful look at that image and concluded that the bomb — about two feet in diameter, with a destructive yield equivalent to the atomic bombs that the United States dropped on Japan in World War II — could be carried by a long-range missile.

2016年平壤发布了一张照片,其中是朝鲜领导人金正恩和该国第一个小型化的核弹头。我们仔细研究了这张照片,得出的结论是,这枚核弹直径约两英尺(约合0.6米),杀伤力和美国在二战中投到日本的原子弹差不多——它可以搭载在远程导弹上。

The North has steadily been building and testing such missiles, and in July it launched a rocket that experts said was capable of reaching the mainland United States. Officials say they believe the North already possesses medium-range missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to much of South Korea and Japan.

朝鲜一直在制造和试验这种导弹,今年7月份,它发射了一枚专家说可以打到美国本土的导弹。专家认为,朝鲜已经拥有了能够把核弹头发射到韩国和日本大部分地区的中程导弹。

But intercontinental missiles aimed at the United States would fly in an arc into space before returning to Earth to hit their targets. The North is still working on a warhead that could survive the intense heat of re-entry as it plunges from space.

但瞄准美国的洲际导弹在返回地球,袭击目标之前,会以呈弧形的线路进入太空。朝鲜仍在研制能够经受住导弹再入,即从太空坠入地球大气层时的高温的弹头。

In addition to test missiles, North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests. Each test of its nuclear capabilities has been more powerful than the last, and it appears to be preparing a sixth test.

除试验导弹外,朝鲜还进行了五次核试验。每一次的核武器试验的威力,都比上一次大。目前,朝鲜似乎正在准备第六次核试验。

What is the rest of the world doing?

世界各国做了些什么?

The United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on Saturday to impose new sanctions on North Korea for defying a ban on testing missiles and nuclear bombs.

联合国安理会周六全票通过一项决议,对违反导弹和核弹试验禁令的朝鲜实施新的制裁措施。

The resolution, imposing an eighth set of sanctions in 11 years, was intended to cut the country’s annual export revenue by $1 billion, about a third of its current total.

这项决议包含在11年内执行的八套制裁措施,意在将该国年出口收入削减10亿美元,约为其当前出口总额的三分之一。

However, a recent investigation by our reporters found that despite years of sanctions, North Korea still has ways — many of them illegal — to finance its weapons program. We also found that the North Korean economy is doing surprisingly well. Merchants and entrepreneurs, thriving under the protection of the ruling party, are encouraging a building boom in Pyongyang, and there are more cars in the capital than ever before.

然而我们的记者近期展开的一项调查发现,尽管多年来一直遭受制裁,朝鲜依然有办法——其中许多属于非法——给自己的武器计划筹集资金。我们还发现,朝鲜的经济发展出人意料地好。在执政党的保护下蒸蒸日上的贸易商和企业家正在平壤大兴土木,首都的汽车数量也达到空前的水平。

On Monday, there appeared to be a rare opening to engage the North in diplomatic discussions. On the sidelines of a conference of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Manila, North Korea’s top diplomat held an uncommon round of talks with his counterparts from China, South Korea and Russia.

周一,与朝鲜的外交磋商似乎出现了一个难得的良机。在马尼拉的东南亚国家外长级会议间隙,朝鲜最高外交官不寻常地与中国、韩国和俄罗斯对等官员进行了一轮会谈。

What has President Trump said about North Korea?

特朗普总统对朝鲜有何评价?

Days before his inauguration, Mr. Trump said he would prevent North Korea from developing a weapon capable of reaching the United States, tweeting, “It won’t happen!”

就职几天前,特朗普说他会阻止朝鲜研发出能远及美国的武器,他发推说,“痴心妄想!”

In a television interview in April, he described Mr. Kim as a “smart cookie.”

在四月的一次电视采访中,他形容金正恩“耍小聪明”。

Pyongyang has long used inflammatory language, previously threatening to destroy Seoul in a “sea of fire” and ordering North Korean missiles “stabbed into the throat” of American warships.

平壤多年来一直在使用煽动性的语言,此前曾威胁让首尔陷入一片“火海”,命令朝鲜导弹将美国战舰“一剑封喉”。

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump invoked terms similar to those used by the North Koreans themselves, threatening to unleash “fire and fury” if Pyongyang endangered the United States. Our White House correspondent wrote that there was little precedent of a president using such language.

周二,特朗普采取了和朝鲜人类似的用语,威胁称如果平壤让美国置身险境,将面临“炮火与怒火”的爆发。我们的白宫记者在文章中说,此前很少有总统会使用这样的语言。

North Korea warned several hours later that it was considering a strike that would create “an enveloping fire” around the United States territory of Guam.

朝鲜几小时后发出警告,称其正在考虑发起一次打击,让关岛的美国领土“陷入烈焰的包围”。

Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson said on Wednesday that Americans should not be concerned about an imminent threat: “I think Americans should sleep well at night, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days,” he said as his plane stopped to refuel in Guam, the very island that North Korea had threatened.

国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)在周三表示,美国人不需要担心短期内的威胁:“我想美国人可以安心睡大觉,不要太在意最近几天的某些措辞。”这番话是他在自己所乘的飞机到关岛加油时说的,也就是朝鲜威胁要攻击的那座岛屿。

Who is at risk of attack?

谁有被攻击的危险?

The United States and its allies are unlikely to end the crisis purely by military means because pre-emptive action, no matter how surgical, could invite an aggressive response from Pyongyang, which has threatened to fire its missiles on Hawaii as well as on the mainland United States.

美国及其盟友不太可能仅凭军事手段解决危机,因为无论打击有多精准,先制行动都会引起平壤的剧烈反应,该国已经威胁过要用导弹攻击夏威夷以及美国大陆。

In its latest warning, North Korea threatened to strike Guam, a United States territory.

在最近的一次警告中,朝鲜威胁要打击作为美国领土的关岛。

Guam, a Pacific island roughly the size of Chicago and home to about 160,000 people, is about 2,200 miles southeast of North Korea. It is an essential base for the United States military, which takes up about 30 percent of the island. The military was considering increasing its presence on Guam by moving thousands of Marines there from Okinawa, Japan, according to The Associated Press.

这座太平洋岛屿的面积大约相当于一个芝加哥,有16万人口,位于朝鲜东南方向2200英里的地方。全岛大约30%的地方是供美军使用的,是一座至关重要的军事基地。据美联社报道,军方正在考虑将数千名海军陆战队员从日本冲绳调至关岛,加强那里的军事存在。

In 2013, the United States announced that it would speed up the deployment of an advanced missile defense system to the island as “a precautionary move” to protect its naval and air forces from the threat of a North Korean missile attack.

2013年,美国宣布将加紧在岛上部署一种先进的导弹防御系统,这种“预防性措施”旨在保护驻扎在那里的海空力量免遭朝鲜的导弹攻击。

The system — Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad — can be used to shoot down ballistic missiles, the type the North has been condemned for testing.

这种名为末段高空防御系统(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system,简称“萨德”)的装备可以击落弹道导弹,也就是朝鲜被指在试射的那类导弹。

The North also has thousands of artillery pieces positioned along its border with the South and pointed at Seoul, a mere 35 miles from the border. The arsenal is of limited range and could be destroyed in days, but the United States defense secretary, Jim Mattis, has said that if North Korea used those weapons, it “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”

朝鲜还在朝韩边境部署了数以千计的火炮,对准距离边境线仅35英里的首尔。这些武器的攻击距离有限,并且可以在几天内被摧毁,但是美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)说,如果朝鲜使用了这些武器,那将“可能是大多数人有生之年见过的最惨烈的战斗”。

We recently took a detailed look at how North Korea might respond if the United States tried a surgical strike and found that any attempt could set off a chain of events risking staggering numbers of casualties.

一旦美国尝试外科手术式打击,朝鲜会作何回应?经过我们近来的仔细研究发现,任何行动都会触发一系列的事件,可能造成巨大伤亡。

According to one analysis, 30,000 civilians would be killed in the initial bombardment — and that is without using nuclear weapons.

据一名分析师说,最初的炮击将导致3万名平民丧生——这还没有考虑使用核武器的情况。

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