您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

朝鲜核威胁升级或引发亚太军备竞赛

更新时间:2017-8-9 19:01:17 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea’s Alarmed Neighbors Consider Deploying Deadlier Weapons
朝鲜核威胁升级或引发亚太军备竞赛

TOKYO — North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has prompted politicians in Japan and South Korea to push for the deployment of more powerful weapons, in what could lead to a regional arms race.

东京——朝鲜的核计划进展迅速,促使日本和韩国的政界人士要求部署更强大的武器。这可能会导致一场地区军备竞赛。

Some of the new capabilities under consideration in Tokyo and Seoul, Washington’s closest Asian allies, are politically contentious. Adopting them would break with decades of precedent and could require delicate diplomatic finessing. Other military options are already being rolled out or will be soon.

华盛顿在亚洲最亲密的盟友东京和首尔正在考虑的部分新武器,在政治上是有争议的。使用它们会打破几十年的常规,并且可能还需要巧妙的外交策略。其他军事选择已经或很快便会出炉。

In a military policy review published Tuesday, the Japanese government focused on the threat from North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong Un, has ordered more than a dozen missile tests this year. Some of those missiles have splashed into waters close to Japan.

在周二发布的一份军事政策评估中,日本政府把重点放在了来自朝鲜的威胁上。朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)今年已下令进行了十多次导弹试验。其中一些导弹坠入了日本附近水域。

“North Korea’s development of ballistic missiles and its nuclear program are becoming increasingly real and imminent problems for the Asia-Pacific region including Japan, as well as the rest of the world,” the government in Tokyo said in its annual defense white paper. “It is possible that North Korea has already achieved the miniaturization of nuclear weapons and has acquired nuclear warheads.”

“朝鲜的弹道导弹和核计划发展,正在成为包括日本在内的亚太地区,以及世界其他地方日渐现实和紧迫的问题,”东京政府在其年度国防白皮书中说。“朝鲜可能已经实现了核武器的小型化,并制造出了核弹头。”

That bleak assessment is likely to feed a growing debate in Japan about whether the country should acquire the means to launch pre-emptive military strikes — attacks that could destroy North Korean missiles on the ground before they are fired at Japan or other targets. Lawmakers are already pushing for such capacities; acquiring them would amount to a profound change for Japan, whose post-World War II constitution renounces war.

这一忧心的评估可能会加剧日本国内本已日渐激烈的争论,关乎日本是否应该掌握发动先制军事打击手段——在朝鲜的导弹瞄准日本或其他目标发射之前将其在地面上毁灭的攻击。已有议员要求日本配备这种武器,但对二战后的宪法宣布放弃发动战争的日本来说,配备这类武器相当于一个深刻的变革。

Japan has long limited its military to a strictly defensive role. Although successive governments have argued that, in theory, striking an enemy pre-emptively to thwart an imminent attack would be an act of self-defense, and therefore constitutional, the country has mostly avoided acquiring the kind of armaments it would need to do so. They include long-range cruise missiles, air-to-ground missiles and refueling aircraft that extend the range of fighter jets.

日本长期把军队限制在严格的防御角色上。尽管历任政府主张,在理论上,为了阻止一场迫在眉睫的攻击而先制打击敌人可能也属于自卫行为,因此是符合宪法的,但日本通常都避免配备这么做所需要的那些武器。它们包括远程巡航导弹、空对地导弹和增加战斗机航程的加油机。

Some senior officials are now arguing that Japan should acquire such weapons.

一些高级官员现在主张,日本应该掌握这类武器。

“North Korea’s missile launches have escalated tensions, both in terms of quality and quantity,” Itsunori Onodera, Japan’s new defense minister, said Friday, a day after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe installed him in the post in a Cabinet reshuffle. “I would like to study if our current missile defense is sufficient.”

“朝鲜的导弹发射加剧了紧张局势,不管是从质量上还是数量上来说,”日本新任防卫大臣小野寺五典(Itsunori Onodera)在周五说。一天前,他在日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)重组内阁时被正式任命。“我想研究一下我们目前的导弹防御够不够。”

In March, Onodera led a committee of lawmakers from the governing Liberal Democratic Party in recommending that Japan consider acquiring the ability to carry out pre-emptive strikes. His views could be reflected in an updated five-year military strategy that is to be published by the Defense Ministry next year.

3月,小野寺五典率领一个由执政党自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)议员组成的委员会,建议日本考虑掌握先制打击的能力。他的观点可能会反映在修订后的五年军事战略中。该战略将由防卫省在明年公布。

Japan has already committed to buying advanced F-35 fighter planes, and it is shopping for an upgraded land-based missile defense system to improve its chances of shooting down any incoming North Korean missiles.

日本已承诺购买先进的F-35战斗机,现在正在购买一种升级后的陆基导弹防御系统,以增加其击落来袭的朝鲜导弹的几率。

North Korea escalated its standoff with the United States and other nations Tuesday, warning that it would take unspecified “physical action” in retaliation for new sanctions the United Nations Security Council adopted over the weekend.

朝鲜周二升级了与美国和其他国家的对峙,警告称会采取“实际行动”报复联合国安理会周末通过的新一轮制裁。但朝鲜没有具体说明是什么行动。

Officials and analysts say they still doubt that North Korea has mastered all the technologies needed to deliver a nuclear payload on an intercontinental ballistic missile. But the country’s latest ICBM test, conducted on July 28, was nonetheless alarming, demonstrating that its missiles now have a potential range that could extend to much of the continental United States.

官员和分析人士表示,他们依然对朝鲜已经掌握了在洲际弹道导弹上搭载核弹头需要的所有技术持怀疑态度。但朝鲜7月28日进行的最新洲际弹道导弹试验表明,其导弹现在具备的潜在射程可能远及美国本土的很多地方。

Even more than Japan, South Korea is working to build its monitoring and striking abilities, including with radars and remote-controlled reconnaissance planes to track and neutralize North Korean missiles in pre-emptive attacks.

不仅仅是日本,韩国也在打造自己的监测和打击能力,包括在先制攻击中利用雷达和远程控制侦察机追踪和摧毁朝鲜的导弹。

After the North’s ICBM tests, South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, reversed his decision to suspend the deployment of an advanced American missile defense system. He also asked the United States to let the South build more powerful ballistic missiles, a move that would require Washington’s approval under the terms of a bilateral treaty.

在朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹试验过后,韩国新任总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)改变了暂停部署先进的美国导弹防御系统的决定。他还请求美国允许韩国制造更强大的弹道导弹。根据一份双边条约的条款,此举须得到华盛顿的批准。

Some opinion surveys have indicated that most South Koreans favor their country developing nuclear weapons of its own, to counter the North’s, though Moon opposes the idea.

一些民意调查显示,大部分韩国人支持韩国发展自己的核武器以对抗朝鲜,但文在寅反对这个想法。

Hideshi Takesada, a specialist on defense issues at the Institute of World Studies at Takushoku University in Tokyo, said that if South Korea acquired nuclear weapons, Japan might rethink its long-standing aversion to them — despite its traumatic experiences at the end of World War II, when American atomic bombs devastated the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

东京拓殖大学海外事情研究所(Institute of World Studies at Takushoku University)的防务问题专家武贞秀士(Hideshi Takesada)说,如果韩国有了核武器,日本可能会重新考虑自己长期以来对核武器的回避——尽管日本在二战末期有过痛苦的经历,当时美国的原子弹摧毁了广岛和长崎两座城市。

“If South Korea went nuclear, that debate would happen in Japan, too,” Takesada said.

“如果韩国进行核试验,那么在日本也会出现这样的讨论,”武贞秀士说。

Takesada said that Abe would have to tread carefully on the issue. Opposition to his goal of undoing the constitution’s restrictions on the military has contributed to a recent slide in his approval ratings. And extending Japan’s military reach could antagonize not only North Korea but also the South, where distrust of Japan, the Korean Peninsula’s former colonial occupier, remains entrenched.

武贞秀士表示,安倍必须认真对待这个问题。他修改宪法、取消其对军队限制的目标遭到了一些人的反对,导致他的支持率下降。扩张日本的军事地位不但可以对抗朝鲜,也可以对抗韩国。韩国对曾经的殖民占领者日本仍然有很强的不信任感。

Despite such risks, Takesada said, Japan should acquire the capacity for pre-emptive strikes, if only for its potential deterrent effect. An unsettled North Korea policy in Washington under President Donald Trump, he added, made maximizing Japan’s own capacities more urgent.

尽管存在这样的风险,武贞秀士说,就算只是为了发挥潜在的威慑作用,日本也应该掌握先制打击能力。他还表示,美国总统特朗普上台后,华盛顿的对朝策略尚未敲定,这增加了日本最大限度扩张本国实力的紧迫性。

“Short of getting nuclear weapons, which very few Japanese support, this is the best conventional way to make Kim Jong Un think twice about attacking,” he said.

他说:“日本基本上没有人支持研发核武器,而如果没有核武器,要能让金正恩在攻击之前有所顾忌,就已经是最好的常规办法了。”

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表