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特朗普政府首次表态愿与朝鲜谈判

更新时间:2017-8-3 18:35:49 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

U.S. Opens Door to Talks, While Flexing Military Muscle to North Korea
特朗普政府首次表态愿与朝鲜谈判

WASHINGTON — In the Trump administration’s first serious attempt at a diplomatic opening to North Korea, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has offered to open negotiations with Pyongyang by assuring “the security they seek” and a new chance at economic prosperity if the North surrenders its nuclear weapons.

华盛顿——这是特朗普政府第一次认真尝试对朝鲜开放外交渠道:国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)提出可以和平壤进行谈判,如果朝鲜放弃核武器,就会确保提供“他们所寻求的安全”以及经济繁荣的新机会。

Mr. Tillerson’s comments came just hours before the United States on Wednesday tested an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, sending it 4,200 miles to a target in the Marshall Islands. The Pentagon said the test was not intended as a response to the North’s launch on Friday of a missile that appeared capable of reaching Los Angeles and beyond.

蒂勒森周三发表这番意见几个小时之后,美国试射了一枚未携带弹头的民兵3型洲际弹道导弹,它在飞行4200英里(约6800公里)后,命中了马绍尔群岛的一个目标。五角大楼表示,这次测试并不是为了回应朝鲜周五试射一枚似乎能够打到洛杉矶和更远地区的导弹。

But military officials said the test demonstrated that the American nuclear arsenal was ready “to deter, detect and defend against attacks on the United States and its allies.”

但是军方官员表示,这个测试表明,美国的核武库已经做好了“阻止、发现和防御针对美国及其盟友的袭击”的准备。

The combination of Mr. Tillerson’s outreach and the missile test laid bare an internal administration debate over what course to take — and whether a combination of diplomatic outreach and maximal military pressure would change North Korea’s current course. Most intelligence assessments have concluded that the North has no incentive to begin negotiations until it demonstrates, even more conclusively than it has in recent weeks, that its nuclear weapon could reach the United States mainland.

把蒂勒森的表态与这次导弹试验放在一起来看,它暴露了政府内部对于采取什么样的路线存在争议——以及外交示意和最大程度地军事施压相结合,是否会让朝鲜改弦更张?大多数情报评估报告的结论是,朝鲜没有进行谈判的动力,直到它可以展现自己的核武器能打到美国本土,甚至要到比最近几周的展现更有说服力才行。

The missile test was the latest demonstration of American power to North Korea. Over the weekend, the United States flew two strategic bombers over the Korean Peninsula, alongside fighter jets from South Korean and Japan. And for years, with mixed results, the United States has targeted the North’s missile program with cyberattacks.

这次导弹试验是美国最近一次向朝鲜展现实力。周末,美国派遣两架战略轰炸机和韩日的战斗机一起,飞过朝鲜半岛。多年以来,美国一直在对朝鲜导弹计划进行网络攻击,效果有好有坏。

Trump administration officials said Mr. Tillerson was increasingly concerned that the recent North Korean advances, especially its missiles’ range, were driving the United States to a binary choice: Accept a North with nuclear weapons that can target American cities, or head toward a military confrontation.

特朗普政府官员说,蒂勒森越来越担心朝鲜最近取得的进展,特别是其导弹的射程,将导致美国只能二者选一:要么接受朝鲜拥有可以打到美国的核武器,要么开展军事对抗。

At a rare appearance in front of the State Department press corps on Tuesday, Mr. Tillerson went out of his way to offer assurances to the government of Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. Others in the Trump administration, including President Trump himself, have declined to publicly say as much.

周二,蒂勒森罕见地在国务院新闻记者团面前露面,对平壤的金正恩政府做出保证。特朗普行政班底的其他人,包括特朗普总统本人,都拒绝公开这么说。

“We have reaffirmed our position toward North Korea,” Mr. Tillerson told reporters. “We do not seek a regime change, we do not seek the collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th parallel,” which divides North and South, he said.

“我们重申了对朝鲜的立场。”蒂勒森告诉记者,“我们不寻求改变这个政权,不寻求这个政权崩溃,不寻求加速半岛的统一,我们不会找借口把我们的军队送到38度线以北,”他说道。38度线是朝韩分界线。

“And we’re trying to convey to the North Koreans: We are not your enemy, we are not your threat,” he said. “But you are presenting an unacceptable threat to us, and we have to respond.”

“我们正在向朝鲜转达的消息是:我们不是你们的敌人,我们不是你们的威胁,”他说。“但是如果你向我们发出了不可接受的威胁,那我们必须做出回应。”

That was a somewhat different tone than the one Mr. Tillerson took when he visited Seoul in March and appeared to make North Korea’s surrender of nuclear weapons a prerequisite for talks. At that time, he said negotiations could “only be achieved by denuclearizing, giving up their weapons of mass destruction,” and that “only then will we be prepared to engage them in talks.”

这和蒂勒森今年3月份访问首尔时的说法有些不同,那时他似乎认为朝鲜放弃核武器是谈判的先决条件。当时他表示,谈判只能“通过无核化、放弃大规模杀伤性武器才能实现”,还说,“只有这样,我们才能做好让他们谈判的准备。”

The idea that North Korea would give up its weapons at the opening of talks was dismissed immediately by allies as unworkable, and Mr. Tillerson may have simply phrased it badly. But the question now, after a series of successful missile tests, is whether Mr. Kim will decide it is time to negotiate a “freeze” on further detonations and launches — or whether he should just keep going on his current path.

朝鲜在会谈开始时放弃武器的想法,美国的盟友立刻指出其缺乏可行性,蒂勒森可能只是没有说清楚而已。但现在的问题是,在一系列成功的导弹试验之后,金正恩是否认为现在是时候谈判如何“冻结”进一步的爆炸和发射——还是要沿着现在的道路走下去。

Even Mr. Tillerson has, in the past, cast doubt on the wisdom of entering a “freeze,” since it would essentially enshrine North Korea as a de facto nuclear weapons state — to which a series of American presidents have said they would never agree.

在过去,即便是蒂勒森也对“冻结”的想法存有怀疑,因为它实质上是将朝鲜视为了一个事实上的核武国家——数任美国总统都说,这件事他们永远不会同意。

Mr. Tillerson’s new position is that negotiations should begin without conditions, as long as they are ultimately headed toward denuclearization. “We don’t think having a dialogue where the North Koreans come to the table assuming they’re going to maintain their nuclear weapons is productive,” he said on Tuesday. “So that’s really what the objective that we are about is.”

蒂勒森的新立场是,谈判应该毫无条件地开始,只要最终能走向去核化即可。“我们认为,如果朝鲜人到达谈判桌的时候以为可以保留核武器,这种对话是没有成效的,”周四他说。“所以,我们的目标就是他们放弃核武器。”

Outside experts had their doubts about whether the North would take up Mr. Tillerson’s offer.

外界专家对朝鲜是否会接受蒂勒森的提议心存怀疑。

Christopher R. Hill, a former American ambassador to Seoul who led Bush-era negotiations on ending North Korea’s nuclear program, said on Saturday that Pyongyang believed the United States was cornered into accepting it as a nuclear weapons state. “We are left in a situation where they believe we will ultimately acquiesce,” he said at the KentPresents ideas festival in Kent, Conn.

前美国驻首尔大使、曾在布什时期领导终止朝鲜核计划谈判的的克里斯托弗·R·希尔(Christopher R. Hill)周六表示,平壤认为美国别无他法,只能视其为核武国家。当时他在康涅狄格州肯特举办的肯特展示思想节(KentPresents ideas festival)上说:“他们相信我们最终会默认这种情况。”

At the same conference, Kathleen Stephens, another former American ambassador to Seoul, said in the case of China, India and Pakistan, “we have never succeeded in stopping a nuclear aspirant country.” She also said the North’s drive for a weapon was based on a bet that the United States could not stop it.

在这次会议上,另一位前美国驻韩国大使凯瑟琳·斯蒂芬斯(Kathleen Stephens)以中国、印度和巴基斯坦为例说,“我们从来没有成功地阻止过一个渴望拥有核武器的国家。”她还表示,朝鲜发展武器的运动,是建立在美国无力阻止的赌注上。

But in making the offer to talk, Mr. Tillerson may be accomplishing several goals at once.

但通过主动提出谈判,蒂勒森也许会一举多得。

If the North rejects the proposal, Washington can reiterate its good-faith effort to the Chinese and a new South Korean government that has proposed its own negotiations with North Korea — and then step up military and financial pressure. If the North insists, as it has in the past, that it must first be recognized as a nuclear weapons power, the United States can make the case that the ultimate objective — a denuclearized Korean Peninsula — cannot be achieved diplomatically.

如果朝鲜拒绝这个提议,华盛顿便可以向中国和韩国的新一届政府——新政府已提出自己与朝鲜谈判——重申自己的善意,然后在军事和金融上加压。如果朝鲜像过去那样,坚持要求必须先承认自己的核国家地位,美国便能够证明,无法通过外交途径实现最终目标,即朝鲜半岛的无核化。

Mr. Tillerson’s offer also nods toward other diplomatic proposals. China has suggested a “freeze-for-freeze” deal, in which the United States agrees to halt all military exercises with South Korea — something Mr. Hill noted would “hollow out the alliance” — in return for North Korea’s stopping its tests.

蒂勒森的提议也是对其他外交提议的认可。中国建议达成一项“冻结换冻结”的协议,即美国同意停止与韩国的所有军事演习——希尔指出,这会“挖空联盟”——换取朝鲜停止试验。

Both sides have rejected that idea, but it creates an opening.

双方都拒绝了这个方案,但它开了个头。

“If we can get past the impasse of the North Koreans saying, ‘We will only come to the table if you recognize us as a nuclear state,’ and the U.S. saying, ‘We can only enter into talks if you commit to denuclearization,’ there’s a diplomatic space,” said Robert S. Litwak, director of security studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and author of “Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout.”

“如果能越过朝鲜说‘只有你们承认我们是核国家我们才会坐到谈判桌前’和美国说‘只有你们承诺无核化我们才参加谈判’的僵局,就有外交空间,”华盛顿伍德罗·威尔逊国际学者研究中心(Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars)的安全研究主任、《防止朝鲜的核突破》(Preventing North Korea's Nuclear Breakout)的作者罗伯特·S·利特瓦克(Robert S. Litwak)说。

Mr. Litwak advocates a freeze deal that he said would “at least stop us from having to deal with a North Korea with 100 nuclear weapons, instead of 20 or so” — the current estimate of the size of its arsenal.

利特瓦克主张达成冻结协议,称协议“至少能防止我们不得不对付一个拥有100件核武器的朝鲜,而是一个有大约20件核武器的朝鲜”。这是当前对朝鲜武器储备规模的估计。

But if a freeze is all that is achieved, North Korea essentially becomes like Pakistan: a nuclear power that the United States does not formally recognize, but has to deal with as a real weapons state.

但如果只能达成冻结的目标,朝鲜本质上会变得像巴基斯坦一样:一个美国并未正式承认,但却不得不将其当作真正的核武器国家来对待的核国家。

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